Celtics in 18-19

Average Game James

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If there's anything to the Ringer reports that Doncic might slide to 4, I would really love to see the Celtics put together a package to go up and get him. Not just for what he'd do for the 2017-18 team, but for the long-term benefit of being able to roll out a lineup with a 6'8" point guard and what that means for defensive flexibility. Maybe it's recency bias and I'm just still having nightmares about LeBron getting switched on to Rozier and I'm doing that thing where half of SoSH forgot how good Kyrie is for the last 6 weeks, but imagine in 2 years rolling out a lineup of Doncic-Brown-Hayward-Tatum-Horford.
 

Ed Hillel

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The alternative is to let him walk at the end of next year. They can't afford to pay a backup PG the kind of money he will command. His peak trade value is now. I think you gotta get what you can
The Celtics are a very serious contender next season, so there’s plenty of value in having someone of his talent on the second unit. Trading to maximize value isn’t always the best move. Danny should set a baseline (mid first rounder or so) and keep him otherwise, unless maybe they already have his replacement for next season in hand.
 

Average Game James

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The Celtics are a very serious contender next season, so there’s plenty of value in having someone of his talent on the second unit. Trading to maximize value isn’t always the best move. Danny should set a baseline (mid first rounder or so) and keep him otherwise, unless maybe they already have his replacement for next season in hand.
I don't think anyone is suggesting trading him for the sake of trading him though... Basically, his value to the Celtics next year is "very high-quality backup PG who will probably only play 15-20 minutes per game and serves as Kyrie injury insurance." There isn't likely money in the budget to resign him after next season, so the value of RFA rights is pretty limited. To another team in trade, he's a starting PG and a potential long-term piece with RFA matching rights. While Rozier's value in trade is debatable, I'd bet it's more than a low first round pick which was the rumored cost to rent Tyreke Evans for the second half of last season, so even if you end up needing to add a guard at the deadline that could approximate Rozier's production off the bench, there's most likely excess value created by trading him even if some of the resources go back into replacing his production. If the return is so low that this isn't the case, I expect he's on the team next year (e.g. I agree with you that Ainge will have a price at which he sees better value in keeping Rozier vs. trading him).
 

DJnVa

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No. Izzo pulled him because he felt he couldn’t handle the middle of the zone on offense. So instead of just swapping him into the wing with Bridges he benched him for a guy that averaged under a basket a game. Dumbest decision I’ve ever seen Izzo make as an MSU fan.

You should tell Izzo. Cuz he said defense. Among other things.


Probably says more about Izzo though.
 

southshoresoxfan

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Sure. But 0 points is a lot different than 0-0-0.
He had a 0-2-0 game in 22 min vs Atlanta. I may have been combining the two.

I just don’t see how he’s even an average NBA player at any point. Bad athlete, not a great shooter or passer. Doesn’t have a position defensively.
 

mcpickl

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Can you get below zero? Marcus taking the QQ to role the dice on putting up numbers as his minutes and role is reduced would be one of the all-time head scratchers imo. This is why players employ agents.....to avoid them making such terrible business decisions.

Sure it would be great for the Celtics.....generally speaking when a move it so lopsided in favor of the team it's a disaster of a move by the player.
Unfortunately, Marcus is represented by the dude who couldn't get Nerlens Noel to accept 4/70 last summer.
 

southshoresoxfan

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Unfortunately, Marcus is represented by the dude who couldn't get Nerlens Noel to accept 4/70 last summer.
I will also say with so many teams tight to the cap he may have more suitors next season, and also he would an UFA.

I still agree, but even Zach Lowe had it as a possibility due to a lack of market.
 

the moops

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If there's anything to the Ringer reports that Doncic might slide to 4, I would really love to see the Celtics put together a package to go up and get him. Not just for what he'd do for the 2017-18 team, but for the long-term benefit of being able to roll out a lineup with a 6'8" point guard and what that means for defensive flexibility. Maybe it's recency bias and I'm just still having nightmares about LeBron getting switched on to Rozier and I'm doing that thing where half of SoSH forgot how good Kyrie is for the last 6 weeks, but imagine in 2 years rolling out a lineup of Doncic-Brown-Hayward-Tatum-Horford.
I was amazed watching the Rockets do the switch everything and not have a terrible matchup most of the time and how it completely eff'ed with GS for most of the series.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The Celtics are a very serious contender next season, so there’s plenty of value in having someone of his talent on the second unit. Trading to maximize value isn’t always the best move. Danny should set a baseline (mid first rounder or so) and keep him otherwise, unless maybe they already have his replacement for next season in hand.
Yeah I agree that there is value to retaining Rozier to play for us next season if there isn't a worthwhile deal out there while both sides understand he's playing out the string here while knowing he's gonna get paid next summer. It's a very fluid situation with Ainge having a ton of flexibility.
 

rhswanzey

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tl;dr - newbie wondering about feasibility/appeal of Rozier to Portland/McCollum to X/Young Big and/or picks to Boston

Hi all, I'm very new to following basketball (I have really only been paying attention for the past two seasons) and I'm very new to trade valuation, and the (at first take) rather complicated rules about draft picks and how they slot, as well as trading rules in general. I completely missed the 2008 run, but on this one I've been so excited watching young players gel, outcoaching other teams, accelerated/unanticipated growth curves, etc. It's the same things that make baseball really fun. It's been the perfect team to watch to learn from and to fall in love with a sport. I've been telling my coworkers at work all week about how proud I am of what this team did, how we basically wrote off this season five minutes in and would have loved to just play the kids and try to sneak in as a 7/8 seed with 45 wins and some playoff exposure. Shutting down Golden State in their court and holding them to under 90 points (the fewest since Durant joined) was very impressive. But for that team to lose Kyrie and a key rotational player in Theis (a surprise in of himself), and do what it did anyway, is really making a statement. Jayson Tatum is going to be a very, very high level basketball player for a very long time. Couldn't be happier for this organization and what it has the chance to do against some very good superteams.

Anyway...

General sentiment in what I read upthread was that while there are things to really like about each of Smart/Rozier individually, as well as the importance of deep depth when you're in a championship window, it's fair to wonder if there is playing time available for both of them here. There are a lot of teams out there where either one would be the 3rd or 4th best player on a roster, easily, and a lot of those teams aren't trying to tank. I don't think the current roster with Kyrie, Hayward and Theis all back - penciled in this early, of course - is going to leave room for two 25-30+ minute roles on the bench..

Here in Portland, it was obvious to see that Lillard straight up elevated his game to another level in Feb/Mar, and has probably entered his peak. Portland is motivated to GFIN and not waste that peak, but they are in cap hell and have a lot of roster cloggers. First thing floated after they were eliminated was wondering if you trade McCollum (because status quo is get in as a mid seed and get shut down in the first or maybe second round), even though he is clearly their second best player and really the only threat to shutting Lillard out of a game and daring the rest to win it. I don't think Portland matches up in a 1-for-1 trade, but if they decide to go down the road of shopping McCollum (hard to believe they won't listen), Rozier's affordable 2018-2019 makes him an extremely appealing target IMO.

P.S. then Bledsoe really could make his Terry Rozier rose! We'd love to glass pour that!
 

Eddie Jurak

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tl;dr - newbie wondering about feasibility/appeal of Rozier to Portland/McCollum to X/Young Big and/or picks to Boston
The short answer is:
  • Trading McCollum and getting only Rozier back would be a terrible deal for Portland, so they would need assets coming back from team 3.
  • Team 3 would have to be taking on salary and sending either picks or an inexpensive player back to Boston.
Even if such a deal were possible under league rules, the major return for McCollum would be going back to Portland rather than to the Celtics (because McCollum >>>>>>>>> Rozier).
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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He had a 0-2-0 game in 22 min vs Atlanta. I may have been combining the two.

I just don’t see how he’s even an average NBA player at any point. Bad athlete, not a great shooter or passer. Doesn’t have a position defensively.
7 footer who can guard PGs? yeah, terrible athlete. Guy who hit 36.6% of 3P on almost 4 shots per game? yeah. bad shooter.

And if you know anything about him, you'd know that with his ability to see the court, passing won't be a negative.

I know he wouldn't start on the Cs but do you have any idea how effective he'd be in Brad's system?
 

Jed Zeppelin

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7 footer who can guard PGs? yeah, terrible athlete. Guy who hit 36.6% of 3P on almost 4 shots per game? yeah. bad shooter.

And if you know anything about him, you'd know that with his ability to see the court, passing won't be a negative.

I know he wouldn't start on the Cs but do you have any idea how effective he'd be in Brad's system?
Probably something like Olynyk's career here, but less steady.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Probably something like Olynyk's career here, but less steady.
Similarly skilled players. What people fail to recognize it that JR Smith probably has a better feel and understanding of the game than Bender. Olynyk thinks two steps ahead of the action while Bender reacts two steps behind. Instincts aren't teachable. This is always going to be an issue for a player who isn't instinctual.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I don't think anyone is suggesting trading him for the sake of trading him though... Basically, his value to the Celtics next year is "very high-quality backup PG who will probably only play 15-20 minutes per game and serves as Kyrie injury insurance." There isn't likely money in the budget to resign him after next season, so the value of RFA rights is pretty limited. To another team in trade, he's a starting PG and a potential long-term piece with RFA matching rights. While Rozier's value in trade is debatable, I'd bet it's more than a low first round pick which was the rumored cost to rent Tyreke Evans for the second half of last season, so even if you end up needing to add a guard at the deadline that could approximate Rozier's production off the bench, there's most likely excess value created by trading him even if some of the resources go back into replacing his production. If the return is so low that this isn't the case, I expect he's on the team next year (e.g. I agree with you that Ainge will have a price at which he sees better value in keeping Rozier vs. trading him).
If Marcus Smart doesn't return, Rozier will be getting 30 minutes a game.
 

the moops

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If Marcus Smart doesn't return, Rozier will be getting 30 minutes a game.
Perhaps. Issue is I think it is difficult for a GM to lose both his backup young PGs two years in a row to restricted free agency without getting some value in return. The question Danny needs to ask is what is best balance for the team both short and long term.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Similarly skilled players. What people fail to recognize it that JR Smith probably has a better feel and understanding of the game than Bender. Olynyk thinks two steps ahead of the action while Bender reacts two steps behind. Instincts aren't teachable. This is always going to be an issue for a player who isn't instinctual.
Bender's instincts were one of the reasons people were raving about him. Here's an entire article on his instincts and feel for the game: https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2017/7/18/15963206/wonderkid-the-dragan-bender-story-phoenix-suns-Croatia. Bender was in the absolutely worst system for him.

If I were a GM, I'd certainly buy low on him if PHO were selling but YMMV.
 

Jimbodandy

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Perhaps. Issue is I think it is difficult for a GM to lose both his backup young PGs two years in a row to restricted free agency without getting some value in return. The question Danny needs to ask is what is best balance for the team both short and long term.
You keep saying this like Terry is a block of cheese with an expiration date. Danny is not a grocer or a commodities trader. Yes, selling high and buying low is good policy. But there is value in having a lame duck Rozier on this team next year. He's a competent backup with a lot of skills. There is also value in maintaining your standards and not accepting crap value in return for a guy that you're sending out. Danny has stood firm on crap offers before, and he should continue to do so. It's also good policy.

I'd love to get something of value for Rozier. The timing seems right for it. But if DA is being offered shit for him, I hope that he holds onto the more valuable side, which very well may be one year of Rozier.
 

Pedrino

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Bender's instincts were one of the reasons people were raving about him. Here's an entire article on his instincts and feel for the game: https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2017/7/18/15963206/wonderkid-the-dragan-bender-story-phoenix-suns-Croatia. Bender was in the absolutely worst system for him.

If I were a GM, I'd certainly buy low on him if PHO were selling but YMMV.
What’s buying low on Bender? I think Rozier a proven commodity is buying high. Not a Bender fan, but 100% agree a change of scenery would be good for him for the reasons you sighted in terms of fit and system with a poorly run Suns team.
 

Big John

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He also competently shoots the three. The better of his two shooting years would have been like sixth on the 2018 Celtics by percentage, maybe seventh.
But that's the problem. The Suns tried to turn him into Nikoloz Tskitishvili. Maybe that's what he is, but I don't think so.

Bender doesn't belong on the perimeter. He's 7-1 for chrssakes. Tell him to put on 25 lbs of muscle and get down on the block. His value is as a post passer and rim protector on defense, plus he's a big who can run the floor on the break. I'm not advocating an overpay, but if he could be acquired for a reasonable price, I'd bet good money on Stevens turning him into a silk purse.
 

rhswanzey

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The short answer is:
  • Trading McCollum and getting only Rozier back would be a terrible deal for Portland, so they would need assets coming back from team 3.
  • Team 3 would have to be taking on salary and sending either picks or an inexpensive player back to Boston.
Even if such a deal were possible under league rules, the major return for McCollum would be going back to Portland rather than to the Celtics (because McCollum >>>>>>>>> Rozier).
Well yeah, I didn't mean to suggest I think Rozier is in McCollum's tier, or that the Celtics would be getting the majority of value back in a 3-team deal like that. I think Rozier makes sense in Portland because they aren't getting out of cap cloggers like Turner, Leonard, et all, and if you move McCollum at $25.76m, plugging Rozier in as your second guard at $3.05m suddenly gives you flexibility to create a better net rotation behind Lillard. The kind of thing they ought to and would have been able to do with McCollum in tow had they not previously spent like drunken sailors.

Suns were kicked around upthread, and I'm not sure why a rebuilding team would want to spend assets on a cheap 1 year-->free agency guard like Rozier in an offseason where guys like McCollum, Kemba Walker, Kawhi, etc. might all be available. Don't you need to take bigger shots at moving the needle if you're projecting to be on the outside looking in?

Maybe better fits will emerge or the trade value won't be there to justify shipping Rozier out, but if they just want to convert him into draft capital then that seems like an avenue to pursue.
 

southshoresoxfan

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He also competently shoots the three. The better of his two shooting years would have been like sixth on the 2018 Celtics by percentage, maybe seventh.
So he’d be our 7th best 3P shooter?

He’s a nothing. I know this board loved Kelly Olynyk too but those guys are just big 2s, they’re not stretch bigs. They play so much smaller than their size and are overmatched physically by most that it negates and spacing advantage they provide.

Bender as a great passer doesn’t pass the smell test to me either. 1.6 asts per game with 1.4 turnovers. Slow, non athlete, decent not great shooter from 3 who lacks feel. Gee what a get for Boston!
 

Jimbodandy

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Either you didn't get the facetious tone of my post, or I'm not getting yours.

He has two things going for him: youth, and one year (out of two) of competent 3PT shooting. I think that he has to make improvements to become a bum. I get why some guys are optimistic that leaving that dumpster fire and studying under Yoda Stevens would make a difference, but I wouldn't give up anything of value for him.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Yeah I’m all for finding undervalued guys but if we’re talking next year’s playoff rotation and needing a big to step in for 15 minutes without killing you, I’d much rather have Theis. And certainly Baynes if he returns.

We may not even know if Bender is capable of being a positive contributor in this league until it’s time for his second contract.

The team is still run by the same braintrust that pointedly passed on the guy back when people were projecting greatness.
 

southshoresoxfan

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Either you didn't get the facetious tone of my post, or I'm not getting yours.

He has two things going for him: youth, and one year (out of two) of competent 3PT shooting. I think that he has to make improvements to become a bum. I get why some guys are optimistic that leaving that dumpster fire and studying under Yoda Stevens would make a difference, but I wouldn't give up anything of value for him.
Ah yes. I missed the under tone. My fault. This board has just gone to great lengths to defend Bender and other similar types and it drives me crazy.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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He’s a nothing. I know this board loved Kelly Olynyk too but those guys are just big 2s, they’re not stretch bigs.
These two statements are contradictory. KO is by definition an above-average player and can be extremely valuable, particularly on a rookie contract and I don't think MIA is losing sleep paying him 4/$50M.

We get it. You don't like Bender, although it sounds like to me that you haven't seen him play much if at all. But a 7'0" guy who can guard multiple positions, shoot the 3 and handle the ball some can be extremely valuable in the right situation. PHO this year wasn't situation this last year but Kokoškov should help him a lot so we should be able to resolve this debate next season.

http://arizonasports.com/story/1367525/appreciating-the-gravity-created-by-dragan-bender/
 

HomeRunBaker

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Bender's instincts were one of the reasons people were raving about him. Here's an entire article on his instincts and feel for the game: https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2017/7/18/15963206/wonderkid-the-dragan-bender-story-phoenix-suns-Croatia. Bender was in the absolutely worst system for him.

If I were a GM, I'd certainly buy low on him if PHO were selling but YMMV.
One of the greatest struggles a young player has is learning how to slow down the NBA game. Bender's reaction time and instincts may be fine against guys who could never play at the NBA level but those who have watched Phoenix play extensively (sadly I'm in this group) recognize that what was maybe considered a strength of him as a youth player is a glaring and debilitating weakness for him against NBA competition.


Bender as a great passer doesn’t pass the smell test to me either. 1.6 asts per game with 1.4 turnovers. Slow, non athlete, decent not great shooter from 3 who lacks feel. Gee what a get for Boston!
Bender is not great in any area and always figured (at least by my opinion pre-draft) by playing too upright but a couple of his traits that are obvious is that he is soft and very passive. These traits put a fairly hard cap on his ceiling. He's still young and could find a niche in this league.....I never painted him as an outright bust when I didn't like him on draft night only that he was being projected way too high for a player whose flaws limit his ceiling. In the right setting he could become a stretch-4 on a second unit or a 4-5th option to a starting unit down the road......but just like you don't draft players that high to max out as role players you certainly don't give up anything of value for them when they are so far from reaching their limited potential.
 
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nighthob

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Well yeah, I didn't mean to suggest I think Rozier is in McCollum's tier, or that the Celtics would be getting the majority of value back in a 3-team deal like that. I think Rozier makes sense in Portland because they aren't getting out of cap cloggers like Turner, Leonard, et all, and if you move McCollum at $25.76m, plugging Rozier in as your second guard at $3.05m suddenly gives you flexibility to create a better net rotation behind Lillard. The kind of thing they ought to and would have been able to do with McCollum in tow had they not previously spent like drunken sailors.
Portland already has defensive issues in the backcourt caused by starting a 6’2” guy and a 6’3” guy. Replacing the 6’3” guy with a 6’1” guy doesn’t improve things for them.
 

lovegtm

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Well yeah, I didn't mean to suggest I think Rozier is in McCollum's tier, or that the Celtics would be getting the majority of value back in a 3-team deal like that. I think Rozier makes sense in Portland because they aren't getting out of cap cloggers like Turner, Leonard, et all, and if you move McCollum at $25.76m, plugging Rozier in as your second guard at $3.05m suddenly gives you flexibility to create a better net rotation behind Lillard. The kind of thing they ought to and would have been able to do with McCollum in tow had they not previously spent like drunken sailors.

Suns were kicked around upthread, and I'm not sure why a rebuilding team would want to spend assets on a cheap 1 year-->free agency guard like Rozier in an offseason where guys like McCollum, Kemba Walker, Kawhi, etc. might all be available. Don't you need to take bigger shots at moving the needle if you're projecting to be on the outside looking in?

Maybe better fits will emerge or the trade value won't be there to justify shipping Rozier out, but if they just want to convert him into draft capital then that seems like an avenue to pursue.
It's cool you're getting into following the NBA. It's a really fun world, especially on the transaction side, with lots of detailed rules that heavily shape strategy, but that are somewhat opaque to people first encountering them from other sports' financial systems.

One of the biggest of those rules is that if a team over the cap trades a player(s), the contracts received back must be within roughly 25% of the outgoing salary. Most contenders are over the cap, so this rule is almost always in play for the sexy trades people like to put together.

The salaries only have to match on an annual basis, not total contract value, which is why you'll often see phrases like "expiring contracts." The strategy there is to dump a multi-year contract for one that only has a year remaining.

So that's why a McCollum for Rozier trade to reduce salary doesn't work, and why you don't see more deals like that (among other reasons, like the scarcity of elite shot creators). I'd definitely recommend checking out some resources on NBA cap mechanics, since they influence team building to a crazy degree, and are also quite fun (for certain personality types/disorders).
 

Cesar Crespo

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Ah yes. I missed the under tone. My fault. This board has just gone to great lengths to defend Bender and other similar types and it drives me crazy.
A few people said they would prefer Bender over Chriss. That's not exactly defending anyone, since they are both pretty terrible.

edit: And even if they have potential, is their upside even worth it? If/By the time they reach it, you'll have to pay them.
 

tims4wins

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Celts currently 8-1 odds. I like that number right now, if LeBron doesn't sign in Philly those odds will skyrocket.
 

southshoresoxfan

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These two statements are contradictory. KO is by definition an above-average player and can be extremely valuable, particularly on a rookie contract and I don't think MIA is losing sleep paying him 4/$50M.

We get it. You don't like Bender, although it sounds like to me that you haven't seen him play much if at all. But a 7'0" guy who can guard multiple positions, shoot the 3 and handle the ball some can be extremely valuable in the right situation. PHO this year wasn't situation this last year but Kokoškov should help him a lot so we should be able to resolve this debate next season.

http://arizonasports.com/story/1367525/appreciating-the-gravity-created-by-dragan-bender/
Oh I’ve watched him. Plenty. I literally haven’t seen any of these things. It sounds like you’re projecting what you want Bender to be versus what he is.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Oh I’ve watched him. Plenty. I literally haven’t seen any of these things. It sounds like you’re projecting what you want Bender to be versus what he is.
You haven't seen any of these things because Bender literally hasn't really touched the ball. His usage rate is absurdly low for the player he was projected to be (and as one of the articles I posted mentioned his touches per minutes). From the games I've watched, the Suns guards spent a ton of time pounding the ball into the floor. Plus, Bender is like the 19th youngest person in the League prior to this draft. To me, It's still too early to declare him a Jan Vesely level bust and if I could pick him for pennies on the dollars, I'd certainly do it.

We'll have to agree to disagree but note that the various Suns blogs that I've posted who apparently watch every minute of every game are marginally higher on Bender than Chriss.
 

LeftyTG

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Bamba is fascinating, but I’m not sure he fits on the C’s. In addition to Brad’s preference for bigs who can stretch the floor, I think Bamba is too raw to earn minutes on a contending team, and he’s not going to develop properly with his ass stapled to the bench.
FWIW, I'm somewhat connected to the Texas basketball program. While Bamba's a great kid, I'm not sure he's a Danny kind of player.
 

HomeRunBaker

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So if LeBron goes to Philly is Simmons going to play off the ball?
They would be such a terrible fit together and a new GM is certainly going to want to move youth that he didn't draft for veterans who fit into a LeBron-led team. Ideally, LeBron signs and Simmons is moved to a team for a 3rd quality starter to add to Embiid that will take the Fultz contract for that right.

Simmons, Fultz, and Covington to the Clipper for Tobias Harris, Lou Williams and Patrick Beverley. Who says no? The Clippers get to build around Simmons with DeAndre, Covington, two low lottery picks, and a flier on Fultz while the Sixers trot out a 9-man rotation that complements LeBrons game throughout the lineup.

LeBron
Embiid
Harris
Redick (re-sign)
Beverley

Saric
Williams
McConnell
Mikal Bridges (#10)
 

bowiac

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They would be such a terrible fit together and a new GM is certainly going to want to move youth that he didn't draft for veterans who fit into a LeBron-led team. Ideally, LeBron signs and Simmons is moved to a team for a 3rd quality starter to add to Embiid that will take the Fultz contract for that right.

Simmons, Fultz, and Covington to the Clipper for Tobias Harris, Lou Williams and Patrick Beverley. Who says no? The Clippers get to build around Simmons with DeAndre, Covington, two low lottery picks, and a flier on Fultz while the Sixers trot out a 9-man rotation that complements LeBrons game throughout the lineup.

LeBron
Embiid
Harris
Redick (re-sign)
Beverley

Saric
Williams
McConnell
Mikal Bridges (#10)
Come on. The Sixers say no. You just traded two #1 overall picks, including the likely rookie of the year for three guys who all been dealt as salary fodder in the past 12 months. To say nothing of Robert Covington, who is a plus asset on that contract. And I like Tobias Harris and Pat Beverly, but come on. They would burn the Wells Fargo center to the ground if that happened.