Yeah, NBA.com sucks. I wish it didn't, because there is a lot of stuff on there that isn't on bbref. I almost always use the latter too.
Celtics in 18-19
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
I haven’t researched the data like others have, but this take strikes me as on the money.
Also, I don’t think we have Bird rights as to Theis (only been in the league 2 years), so signing him consumes part/all of our MLE. Signing Baynes only costs money. So you bring back Baynes if the money’s not totally stupid, but you let Theis walk and give his minutes to TL unless Danny knows something we don’t.
Btw, I don't want you to think I was checking your work - I noted the comment in the gamethread last night as well and it seemed strange to me so that's why I noticed that B-Ref was different than your source. You know your stuff as far as I am concerned.Yes, thanks.
DeJesus, I used NBA.com advanced stats and ESPN RPM. Like bosox79 said Theis is shooting a bit better this year, but I also think he is little more experienced and understands the system better (I recall Theis bumbling around a bit last season). In short minutes he is quick enough to front the big bodies, but agree Baynes is better at that
I also like Theis' German compatriot, Max Kleber, as a potential cheap bench piece if Baynes/Theis go elsewhere. I wouldn't trust TL as my back-up 5, but would like to see him start getting consistent minutes next season.
And when you are ready, please share your proprietary metrics on Baynes value to the Celtics and humankind in general.
No worries, you had a legitimate question. I usually attach source but didn't this time. While clunky to use, I like NBA.com for their advanced off/def net rating, Hustle Leaders and Team Lineup stats. Funny enough they all point to the sublime nature of Aron Bayne's basketball skills
I'll look at bbref some more to get on the same page. Does anyone else have some other recommended hoop stat sites that are interesting?
Of the 2, I think Baynes is the obvious guy to bring back. Both very different kinds of players - even if they are both called centers, Theis is a 6'8" smallball center. Theis is more of a guy who can put up various numbers (points, threes, rebounds, blocks) when he's in the right matchup, where Baynes is a legit center/defender. I think the Celtics have suffered for not having that while Baynes has been out. I also think that if healthy, Baynes is an easy guy to move in a trade should the desire to do so arise.
TL is has a ton of potential on both ends of the floor, but he's also lost out there, so a #3 role for him makes some sense.
Adam Himmelsbach makes a very interesting point.
I think the versions of these kind of lineups that featured Marcus Smart were a key part of last year's playoff success, and this year's struggles were partly due to going completely away from this look. Smart and 4 of Horford, Tatum, Brown, Morris, Hayward, Baynes, or even Ojeleye ought to be a routine look for the Celtics when Kyrie is off the floor. It wored in the playoffs last year, even without Kyrie and Hayward.
My reading of Coon's salary cap FAQ says that BOS would have early Bird rights on Theis.
To qualify for this exception the player must play for two seasons without clearing waivers or changing teams as a free agent. A team may use the Early Bird exception to re-sign its own free agent for up to 175% of his salary in the previous season (not over the maximum salary, of course) or 105% of the average salary in the previous season3, whichever is greater. Early Bird contracts must be at least two seasons in length
That was my reading as well, which is why I think Theis is a sleeper candidate to get Keith Bogans’d in an AD deal (if the Cs do indeed have his Early Bird rights).
RealGM lists Theis as Early Bird FWIW: https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/teams/Boston-Celtics/2/Free_Agency/Future/2020/R/Per_Game/player
hallelujah...great pick up Eddie
Smart, Hayward and Horford can all efficiently dictate the offense when Kyrie is out (world's better than Terry Rozier IMO). That's also a much better defensive squad. Brad's next move is playing Horford as the point 4 for ~10mpg with Baynes/Theis at the 5.
mcpickl and I are still waiting for the extensive list of 4's, from HRB, that Horford can't cover defensively. So far this season HRB has listed these small-ball starting power forwards: Wilson Chandler (6.7 pts/gm), PJ Tucker (7.8pts/gm), Dorian Finney-Smith (7.8 pts/gm) as 4s that Al Horford could not cover or stay with defensively for ~10mpg. In addition to that, MaMo is a dreadful defensive 4, probably the Celtics worst defensive rotational player, Al for ~10mpg at the 4 would be an obvious upgrade.
Brad needs to continue to lower Rozier's minutes, increase Brown's minutes and play longer/bigger as the pace of the game slows down during the playoffs.
Last edited:
Yeah, the ability to play all wings+Horford or Baynes is one of the Celtics strengths. So much of it depends on Hayward playing well offensively: if he’s on, those huge lineups with him and Horford really sing.
I wish that we had ORtg and DRtg+ numbers that adjusted for pace/scoring, but I guess that we can do that for ourselves.
Theis being slighty better offensively and slightly worse defensively than last year is more reflective of 2019 than it is of Theis. Theis having a better net is reflective of a better Theis, which matches the eye test for me. Not a huge improvement and not a crucial guy, but he's a good clock puncher to keep around.
Theis being slighty better offensively and slightly worse defensively than last year is more reflective of 2019 than it is of Theis. Theis having a better net is reflective of a better Theis, which matches the eye test for me. Not a huge improvement and not a crucial guy, but he's a good clock puncher to keep around.
oRTG relies heavily on fixed weightings on offensive rebounds and free throws that may not be uniformly valid on a year-to-year basis. The game has changed a lot in the last 10 years. dRTG was never particularly good as an individual metric. It's really just a measure of team defense.
Right, meaning Boston can exercise those rights and sign him for roughly $2.4 million. But he'll probably get more than that on the open market.
Can't they sign him up to 105% of this years average salary? Which will be something north of 9 million
Pretty sure that's correct. If Zarren thought of this in advance, when they signed him to a two-year deal, I'm really impressed.
It used to be 175%, but then I haven't read the new CBA (much more limited time since going the self-employed route). So now I'm hoping that's the case as it makes trades a little easier, as he'd count for $4.5 million on the outbound ledger if that's the case.
Lots of parallel's to Red Russell run, and BB ,TB Pats run.
66 team was one people thought was the last straw, the Sixers were better, but Cs beat them on the road in the final game with Wilt outscoring Russell only 14-12. then when the 6ers won in 67 people declared the 76ers best team ever, even snubbing the Cs when the league voted best team ever. The Cs won two more nobody expected.
66 team was one people thought was the last straw, the Sixers were better, but Cs beat them on the road in the final game with Wilt outscoring Russell only 14-12. then when the 6ers won in 67 people declared the 76ers best team ever, even snubbing the Cs when the league voted best team ever. The Cs won two more nobody expected.
I wonder how often anyone gets 4 straight in California? No idea how to go about looking that up.
Looking at the schedule the only two games left I would guess the Celtics aren't favored would be @ Philly and @ Indiana. Hopefully we're set up for a strong finishing run.
I'll throw out a guess that it hasn't happened since Kerr took over the Warriors in 2014 as it is rare anyone comes out of Oakland with a road win...….much less take down the other 3 games as well. It probably didn't happen the few years before that when the Clippers were also really good.
It seems like just from a scheduling standpoint it doesn't happen very often that you get all 4 teams on one trip. Still got one to get though.
It won't be an easy one either. Doc has done an incredible job with this Clipper team. One of his 3 best coaching jobs ever imo, right up there with the '99-'00 Magic and '07-'08 Celtics...….while being unique in that each of the teams were in such different situations.
Best I could find since Kerr took over
IND won 3 in a row last year, but their 4th game on the trip was not the other CA team.
SAS in 2014 won three in a row, but lost the 4th.
Its been a season of underperformance/disappointment for the players. "Four straight games out West" probably will be the start of a media rallying cry for this team. Implying they can handle the Western Conf, road games, adversity, etc. Their KUMBAYA plane ride turning into their Italian UBUNTU moment.
Frankly, that's all a bunch of hooey IMO and I think Brad is starting to tighten rotations. I'd like to see him not play Kyrie/Rozier together, play with more length, run the offense through Kyrie/Al/Gordon, and of course play Baynes more as he heals
Not sure I could disagree with the bolded more strongly. The team very clearly had massive chemistry issues, and everyone around the team has talked about it during the year. Tightening rotations helps (and I've been an advocate of it), but none of that matters if everyone hates each other on the court.Frankly, that's all a bunch of hooey IMO and I think Brad is starting to tighten rotations. I'd like to see him not play Kyrie/Rozier together, play with more length, run the offense through Kyrie/Al/Gordon, and of course play Baynes more as he heals
My bigger concern is that the chemistry stuff will rear its head again the next game where a few shots don't fall.
Celtics have given up 95, 109, and 107 on the road in the last three. They figured something out.
But you're right. I don't think that Ainge and Stevens should put the psychiatrist couch in storage just yet
I agree that looking at the defense is the best way to measure where their heads are at. Whatever interpersonal stuff they went through this year was very clearly fucking with their defensive identity and connectedness (get out of my head, Brad), even while guys like Kyrie were showing the capability to be better individually on the defensive end than we had thought.
I think Ainge, and I assume Stevens, are of the view that the "chemistry" stuff has to work out organically, from the players themselves. Either it will over the long term or it won't. And I'm not sure there's much non-players can do.
I also think, to some extent, that Stevens has that approach to shortening the roster and cutting playing time. I have no doubt that he'll be merciless with playing time in the playoffs. But during the regular season, it seems as though he prefers to let guys or combinations suck for a bit (certainly a bit longer than appears optimal), so that the logic of subsequent moves is more obvious. At least that, to me, is the most logical interpretation of how he has done things so far.
Ha Ha, whatever works, there has been way too much drama with this group. While I'm not a Pats fan, I respect the heck out of Belichick's no-nonsense, do your job mantra. All this talk of leadership is tedious, this should be Brad's team (and he should be considered the Chief). Kyrie is by far their best player and should have his hands on the ball when it matters most. Brad and Danny need to explain to players their roles, that really shouldn't be Kyrie's job to answer (which has led to some of these chemistry issues).
If Air Kumbaya West Coast is the narrative the media/team want to rally around that's A-OK in my book, just win.
Last edited:
I'd love to see Ojeleye get a start. Sounds like he's been working hard and looks improved in practice. Throw the dog a bone.
https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2019/03/boston-celtics-semi-ojeleye-might-be-bostons-most-improved-player-despite-lack-of-regular-minutes.html
Could see Jaylen, possibly. Depends on who they’d rather keep with the second unit I guess.
I'd rather throw him a bone when the seeds get locked down. Win tonight and they're .5 GB of 3rd.
IIRC, this is the first game Tatum misses to injury, after 164 straight games where he was healthy. He was sat for rest at the end of last season.
I'm good with keeping the rotation the same, and plugging in Semi for Tatum. I'm sure Morris would by OK with the extra shot opportunities. The Clips start a smallish lineup, with Gallinari as PF, Shamet as a wing, and the two PGs, Beverly and SGA. The smart move would be to go with the more athletic Brown as a starter, and post him up against Shamet or SGA, assuming Beverly will cover Kyrie.
Boston needs to stand up to Harrell if they want to win this game. MM, Baynes, Theis, and AL need to body him up at all times.
I'm good with keeping the rotation the same, and plugging in Semi for Tatum. I'm sure Morris would by OK with the extra shot opportunities. The Clips start a smallish lineup, with Gallinari as PF, Shamet as a wing, and the two PGs, Beverly and SGA. The smart move would be to go with the more athletic Brown as a starter, and post him up against Shamet or SGA, assuming Beverly will cover Kyrie.
Boston needs to stand up to Harrell if they want to win this game. MM, Baynes, Theis, and AL need to body him up at all times.
That really isn’t how the game of basketball works though and especially not at the NBA level. Maybe there are one-offs at some HS and college programs but aside from the obvious specialists no coach is telling their players when to shoot or pass. That occurs naturally during the instinctual flow of the game. When you start “thinking” rather than reacting you look the way Boogie has in Oakland this year.
In the NBA, players do have different roles and play different positions on a basketball court, right? ALSO if you have looked at any of the recent shot charts relative to where players were taking shots 10yrs ago you'd notice that coaches have had a major influence on where shots are being taken on the floor.
Demarcus Cousins came off a major injury and showed up in the middle of the season. Expecting him to be the Old Boogie right away was as silly as expecting Gordon Hayward to be Old Gordon from Day 1 this season.
Rarely are we going to find a situation where Brad and Danny are more OK scheduling themselves a loss on the calendar than tonight. If we want to give Tatum a break, give Al his periodic break, give Ojeleye an opportunity to run amok (non-Bucks edition)... this is about as shining an opportunity as you get. Maybe we'll win anyway, but I won't lose any sleep either way.
Why is this that opportunity? Show your work. It *might* be, but I'm not sure why this one is so obvious.
We host the Hawks on Saturday. Win this, beat the Kings, then give someone a rest vs Atlanta before we play Denver and Philly. You can rest guys then and still feel pretty good about winning.
Last edited:
Because a Celtics loss tonight increases the odds of getting an extra mid-first-round pick, by a nontrivial amount of probability?
Every other pick we conditionally own, we want that team to lose every game on their schedule, twice if possible. Tonight's the very rare exception.
Every other pick we conditionally own, we want that team to lose every game on their schedule, twice if possible. Tonight's the very rare exception.
Sure, rosters are assembled by the GM to (theoretically) best fit a coaches system or in the Celtics case to accumulate assets for an AD trade. I was responding to your statement that Brad needs to explain their role. Unless a player is a specialist he is pretty much who he is as a player and is going to play his game. When the system and personnel doesn’t fit their game you have a bad situation. Are you saying that Brad should tell certain players that they are now spot-up shooters or facilitators, or pick-n-roll guys? What is it specifically that you think Brad should be telling each player?
That is what we have here and what the Warriors have with Boogie regardless of how long he’s been with the team. No preseason was going to change how Boogie approaches the game.
Last edited:
Marcus Morris
First 38 games: 27.4 minutes, .501/.452/.866, 15.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.4 assists
Last 25 games: 27.6 minutes, .405/.271/.756, 12.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists.
His 3 point % for the year is now more in line with his career at .379, but his FG% is still easily a career high. 53.5% from 2 this year, his career average is 47.8%. During the 25 game bad stretch, he's still 81/156 .519 from 2. He's just 36/133 from 3, after starting the year 89/197. In 64 more attempts, he hit 63 more 3s. That's insane.
Marcus Smart is now at .370 for the year. It'd be something if Smart managed to finish ahead of Morris given their starts to the year. Over the last 30, Smart is 65/158 .411 from 3 and that includes a 3 game stretch where he went 2/19.
Smart's 3 point % by month is pretty crazy too
October: .176 (3/17)
November: .370 (20/54)
December: .323 (19/59)
January: .429 (33/77)
February: .327 (18/55)
March: .519 (14/27)
Morris's is more, uh, consistent.
October: .484
November: .412
December: .451
January: .362
February: .273
March: .278
Hayward since 1/2: 30 games, .506/.371/.766
Since 2/1: 16 games, 546/.429/.786
It's infuriating he doesn't get a consistent amount of shots per game since he's actually been pretty efficient for awhile now.
First 38 games: 27.4 minutes, .501/.452/.866, 15.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.4 assists
Last 25 games: 27.6 minutes, .405/.271/.756, 12.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists.
His 3 point % for the year is now more in line with his career at .379, but his FG% is still easily a career high. 53.5% from 2 this year, his career average is 47.8%. During the 25 game bad stretch, he's still 81/156 .519 from 2. He's just 36/133 from 3, after starting the year 89/197. In 64 more attempts, he hit 63 more 3s. That's insane.
Marcus Smart is now at .370 for the year. It'd be something if Smart managed to finish ahead of Morris given their starts to the year. Over the last 30, Smart is 65/158 .411 from 3 and that includes a 3 game stretch where he went 2/19.
Smart's 3 point % by month is pretty crazy too
October: .176 (3/17)
November: .370 (20/54)
December: .323 (19/59)
January: .429 (33/77)
February: .327 (18/55)
March: .519 (14/27)
Morris's is more, uh, consistent.
October: .484
November: .412
December: .451
January: .362
February: .273
March: .278
Hayward since 1/2: 30 games, .506/.371/.766
Since 2/1: 16 games, 546/.429/.786
It's infuriating he doesn't get a consistent amount of shots per game since he's actually been pretty efficient for awhile now.
It looks from my seat that Hayward isn't yet able to create the shots that he once did in Utah. I'd prefer an efficient player taking less shots than a player forcing bad shots to bring his efficiency down. A smart player knows what he can and can't do on the floor......which is why smart players are typically the most "efficient" ones. You can't simply press a button to get him more shots and expect them to still be of high quality looks.
I didn't say more. I said consistent. He disappears for long stretches of time.
This is awesome. Aside from SSS October, every one of these month splits is gold for Marcus Smart. All of us would have signed up for a year of Smart shooting .323, nevermind that being his bad month.