I think it's referring to this post:
I'm hoping the confidence isn't misplaced.
Paul George to OKC
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Getting away from the Warriors and being in the other conference is a big sell by itself. And the players probably have a good vibe on the future of LBJ and the Cavs.
Of course. But depending on the package you have to give up for George, the bench starts to look pretty thin.
Yes, and they've also got Abdul Nader, which makes four. Do you feel comfortable projecting any of those four guys as a top 8 or 9 player on a championship team? It's more likely that Ainge will look to add vets with his MLE and room exception once he goes over the cap.
If Zizic and Rozier are still around when the dust settles, they can probably cobble together an adequate bench.
No. Of course not. But that's why you draft 3 of them.
But I'm sure Ainge kinda knows what he's gonna need to do to fill out the roster.
And Daniel Theis. I wonder if Ainge would look to signing more guys from the Euro Leagues to fill out the 11-17 spots. You'd think a guy who's 25-26 and been playing professionally for awhile would offer more value to a team than 2nd round picks and undrafted guys, at least in the short term. Long term, 2nd rounders don't have much value anyway. Maybe we get lucky, I guess.
I doubt IT could pass a physical right now with his hip issues. I would love to see a team with George and Hayward as foundational pieces as long as it didn't cost Brooklyn18 or LAL18/SAC19 as I believe those lottery tickets are crucial for building an enduring champion contender. I would also prefer Tatum over Brown, but would be willing to sacrifice Tatum if George agrees to an extension. #3 for a one year rental makes no sense, especially as i don't think a lineup of IT, Brown/Tatum, Hayward, George ,Horford is unlikely to get past GSW unless they suffer an injury to one of their big 4.
Amazing how different this team could look next year. Has a conference regular season champ ever had such aggressive turnover before? The only returning players may be IT, Smart, Horford, Rozier and Brown.
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Fair enough, thanks and I hope its not misplaced as well. The reports are there but I still don't see anything in DA's behavior that tells me one way or the other. Actually, I'd be suprised if the big $ FAs already know what they are going to do themselves so it seems like a fools errand to assume you know before they do. The media seemingly rides in ex post facto as though X were known all along, but in reality it could have been in the wind up to the last minute.
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In re building a bench in certain PG scenarios, they still have the mid-level sexception as well.
Useful for good ball-handlers, not so much for rim protectors.
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Probably not, and even if there is as much turnover as we're speculating, it is likely that the Exodus From Cleveland coming this time next year will wipe away any record the Celtics can set. If LeBron goes, so do all his bobos, and probably Irving & Love as well, which would effectively be wiping out the entire team.
That said, I think you are underselling exactly how much change is coming/could come because you've got IT as a keeper - and I think that's pretty likely to be wrong. IT is a fabulous offensive player, who needs to dominate the ball to be at his best. With more competent scoring options - George, FA stud (Heyward?), Tatum - there is less need for IT to be the player he had to be in 16-17. Can he be part of a balanced offensive team or does he need the ball as much as possible to be as good as he can be offensively?
Further, he's never going to be better than half-a-great player. He is an elite scorer, who probably can work in concert with others offensively. But nothing will make him better than below-average on defense. He will never be a good defender, simply because of his size and the amount of effort he has to expend to be as great offensively.
So, if the team is moving to several scorers - George, FA, etc. - and IT isn't a seamless fit on that end, and he's a defensive liability for reasons beyond his control, AND he's making significant money and headed to free agency himself - and looking for a big contract extension ... signs are pointing to IT being part of a transaction that facilitates the George & FA transactions.
As I understand the money side, the FA signing happens first, then the George trade involves matching some salary. IT's salary makes that easier. The Pacers could flip him at the deadline for more assets. Including IT makes needing to include Brown or Tatum less likely. Rozier and Smart can fill IT's minutes.
What is a reasonable deal for George that includes IT as part of the return? The Clippers pick, a couple of their own firsts?
I want to give a little pushback against the idea that IT needs the ball in his hands. This is half true, but if you watched the Celtics offense last year you saw that, while he was indeed the chief decision maker and shot taker at the crucial moments, a large amount of his work came off the ball, using screens to get separation running into handoffs. That action would work beautifully as a decoy and I think could easily be adapted with another ball - dominant player. The Celtics offense was very efficient with this action last year with the whole defense loading up for IT eventually getting the ball. Imagine how things could open up if you add another player capable of going off the dribble. It becomes a pick your poison for opposing defenses.
Adding onto that idea, how many times did we see teams blitzing IT off pick and rolls back to halfcourt in order to stop him getting a head of steam towards the hoop? This was viable because precisely no one else on the floor was a threat to attack the basket in the ensuing 4 on 3. Bradley maybe on a good day.
Adding onto that idea, how many times did we see teams blitzing IT off pick and rolls back to halfcourt in order to stop him getting a head of steam towards the hoop? This was viable because precisely no one else on the floor was a threat to attack the basket in the ensuing 4 on 3. Bradley maybe on a good day.
I quite agree: IT may have been at his best when he was playing off the ball, running circles around his defender, and looking for the open three-pointer from the top of the arc, usually off a hockey assist from Horford. It was precisely his ability to switch between ballhandler and spot-up shooter that made him so hard to defend.
I think most scorers are considered ball dominant (it's all about the touches!). To me, the key is how often is IT forcing up shots when covered? When double teamed, is he getting rid of the ball and finding the open man? He is a PG and one would expect him to have the ball a lot anyway.
I know we all love IT4 around here and je gave us one of the most enjoyable seasons in recent Celtics history but IT4 is such a singular talent it is unlikely in the best of circumstances that any other GM is going to give 50% of his value particularly since he's one year away from FA. When his injury is factored in, he's pretty much untradeable.
I would guess that DA could get more for AB than IT4 in a trade at the moment.
Your overall point is a really good one. But just for shits and giggles I looked up the Bulls after Jordan left the second time.
Granted, the 1997-98 Bulls offseason obviously had a ton of extenuating circumstances but it's still crazy how that roster changed from NBA Champs to the 8th Seed the following season. Using players who started double digit games.
1997-98
1998-99
Spot on! IT is a deadly shooter off the catch, who retains the threat of the drive in those situations. Since he got here, the Celtics' offense has evolved towards using him more and more in catch and shoot situations.
Part of why I was excited about Fultz is that he could have given them a tall PG option that would have been a nice fit offensively with IT. But Tatum will be a nice fit with IT in a different way - when teams throw everything and the kitchen sink at IT (which often works), it helps to have a guy who can capitalize on that for an easy bucket.
The Celtics offense under Stevens has always thrived on ball movement and tended to struggle when it devolves to IT pounding the ball and going 1 on 5. He's as good a pure scorer as there is in the NBA, but not when he is doing that. It is part of the reason why, if they lose out on Hayward, I'd be OK with Blake.
My point on IT being ball dominant is that his value is really proportional to how often he is getting the ball because he offers little to negative value at the other end of the floor. So an IT getting less touches rapidly becomes less valuable because all of his value is derived from one end of the floor. The easy to point at example is Westbrook. RW is obviously far more ball dominant than IT, but before Durant left, I think people were pretty well settled that he was a low efficiency scorer who could go off once in a while. Turns out, without another elite option on his team, he could go off almost every night. But, he didn't really get remarkably more efficient. He didn't start playing defense. He basically just had the ball in his hands a lot more (including boards). And sure, while Presti probably should have gotten more for Harden (or chosen him instead of Westbrook), the fact is that those two guys on the same team would almost assuredly not be All-NBA level.
IT has a lot of value to the Celtics as the only guy who can create his shot on three levels, and one of the only guys with handles to attack the rim in traffic. If you start surrounding him with other guys with those skills, his value to the Celtics goes down. Not because they make his skill useless or because he's a ballstopper, but because there is only one ball.
So that's my point. If you have three maxes already, George, Hayward, Horford, then giving a max to IT seems like a big waste of resources even in year 1, nevermind as he ages. It's too bad we can't give him a retroactive max for the last two seasons. The guy deserves it.
IT has a lot of value to the Celtics as the only guy who can create his shot on three levels, and one of the only guys with handles to attack the rim in traffic. If you start surrounding him with other guys with those skills, his value to the Celtics goes down. Not because they make his skill useless or because he's a ballstopper, but because there is only one ball.
So that's my point. If you have three maxes already, George, Hayward, Horford, then giving a max to IT seems like a big waste of resources even in year 1, nevermind as he ages. It's too bad we can't give him a retroactive max for the last two seasons. The guy deserves it.
This argument is like those who said a year ago that the Warriors wouldn't get that much better adding Durant because they already had infinite offense. That was wrong, just like this is wrong. More really good offensive players means better offense. IT will probably see fewer shots on a team that adds a couple other high level scorers. He is likely to be rated a lesser player by advanced metrics in the regular season. But, come the playoffs, the ability to play offense in a way that other teams cannot guard because you have multiple players who demand double teams is invaluable.
Great post.
Should we someone make the simultaneous George/Hayward acquisition it would severely limit IT's value to this team. I'm not even talking about as a max player but even being in that starting group as he gives up so much defensively while now we would be limiting his offensive impact.
I agree the Warriors were better, but they also got the benefit of Kawhi getting injured and Draymond not shitting his pants out of the Finals with a dumb as rocks attitude about nothing.
As well, Durant is a terrific two way player.
Last, I'm not talking about dumping IT, I'm talking about whether he's worth the max and paying a bunch of luxury tax. I'm not saying he has no value...just not enough.
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"[Paul George] is my favorite player in the league, I've been saying that for a while. He's just so smooth, man. He can do it all. He can pass, he can rebound, defend, shoot the J, post up, handle the ball. He's my favorite player." — Kevin Durant
Yeah, I was going to say Durant is a FA. It aint gonna happen but IT4/Smart/George/KD/Horford beats GS.
There is a point to what you are saying, but I think the way you have framed it makes a fundamental error in understanding how basketball, and especially modern basketball works. The revolution to three point shooting is largely coming from the fundamental idea that the more shooters you have on the floor, there is more space for the creators to operate.
Like, its an obvious observation, but I feel like your post is ignoring it. IT provides value every offensive posession on the floor, even if he is not taking the shot or even handling the ball. Having established himself as a threat to drive, create his own shot, or shoot of the catch, the entire defense has to respect that. This is very valuable.
There is definitely a point of diminishing returns, and we see this frequently during the Olympics when team USA puts out 5 amazing scorers, and you usually feel they could sacrifice scoring somewhere to have more specific roles filled. Hence we see DeAndre Jordan now and again on team USA.
But I think the Celtics are FAR from reaching that point of diminishing returns. Again, see the Warriors. You are correct that it is different because Durant is a great defender. But if we are talking strictly offense, that team just put up the best offense the league has ever seen. Ever.
In an uncapped league I have no qualms with anyone's argument I guess. Pay full value for diminishing returns. Not my money right? Unfortunately even if you say IT is worth the same amount regardless of the other guys (I don't agree but let's ignore that), if you've already got three max players the fourth comes with exceptionally high cost in terms of the tax and in terms of your ability to fill out the roster.
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This is straight foolish from Kaufman.
All we've heard is George wants to sign with the Lakers next year. Now he'd not only be willing to sign an extension in Boston, he'd be willing to sign for less than the max? Because there's no realistic way to pay George the max in an extension, and also have Hayward on the roster. Only way it's even conceivable is 1) to trade Horford, which would be a really bad look to dump a year after signing as a free agent when trying to sign free agents. or 2) have both Indiana and Utah agree to sign and trade you both Hayward/George and they'd probably have to also be willing to eat a year of Amir/Jerebko signed to a Bogans deal at a huge salary to make the salaries match.
I think the question is can Boston clear sufficient salary in a George trade to renegotiate the last year of George's deal to $27 million in a renegotiate & extend deal. Because that would get him to max the following year, and minimize the three year differential. After that he'd want an opt out anyway to collect the ten year max.
Then how do you get Hayward as well?
It's not a problem to clear the cap space for one guy. For both it's nearly impossible.
Yeah, you seem to be right. I mean, this would be fucking insane in a bad way. There's no team left. He goes on to say that you can keep IT, but it costs you Zizic and one of Tatum/Brown - and it's a really hard sell without including IT who seems to be a big time recruiter/draw for players.
Note: this is only in a renegotiate scenario. I think we'll make a run for PG, but as a rental and will offer assets accordingly - no lottery picks. It makes little sense to me to keep him from LAL, but then offer Indy that pick for a year's worth of PG.
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Marc Stein @ESPNSteinLine
League sources: Cavs, Pacers and Nuggets have discussed a three-way deal that would land Paul George in Cleveland and Kevin Love in Denver
League sources: Cavs, Pacers and Nuggets have discussed a three-way deal that would land Paul George in Cleveland and Kevin Love in Denver
Chris Haynes @ChrisBHaynes 4m4 minutes ago
One version of potential 3-team trade involving Cleveland, Indiana, Denver, Kenneth Faried would be Cavalier-bound, league sources tell ESPN
One version of potential 3-team trade involving Cleveland, Indiana, Denver, Kenneth Faried would be Cavalier-bound, league sources tell ESPN
Depending on what the Nuggets moved, that could be an offensive juggernaut but a terrible defensive team. Jokic and Love?
No idea, but Love to DEN, George to CLE and Mudiay & Faried to IND works on the trade machine. Assume CLE gives a future 1st to IND also and we're somewhere in the ballpark of the trade.
That's not close to enough for George---because at that price Celtics or Lakers would beat it. That's worse than almost any combo Celtics would put forward, and worse than Randall.
If Kaufman was right I'd love to see Danny jump in here and just get it finished. But I'm weary about that report.
Gary Harris is probably a better asset than Jaylen. Much better than Clarkson/Randle. Celtics can top the Denver offer with their picks.