Celtics Playoff Watch

smastroyin

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We already mention these things in the Celtics and NBA threads, but maybe a thread to specifically talk about the Playoffs and possible seeding/opponents/path to the finals would be in order.

Current Eastern Conference standings and games remaining:

Celtics (8)
Cavs 0.5 (9)
Wizards 2 (8)
Raptors 3 (8)

Hawks 10 (8)
Bucks 10 (8)
Pacers 11 (8)
Heat 12 (8)

Bulls 13 (8)
Pistons 14.5 (7)
Hornets 15 (8)

Sixers 20 (8)
Knicks 20 (8)
Magic 21 (8)
Nets 32 (8)

The Cavs and Wizards have won their division. The Raptors can still catch the Celtics. (duh I forgot they changed in 2015 making this irrelevant).
 
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DJnVa

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Is there a chance Washington can catch the Cavs?

Cavs still face Indy, @Bos, @Atl, @Mia, and Tor.

Eh, if they do, they'll earn it--@LAC, @Utah, @GS,
 

chilidawg

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538 has the Celtics with a 70% chance at the #1 seed. Celtics project to 54 wins, Cavs 52, Washington and Toronto 50. The rest of the pack clusters so tightly together that it's hard to make any projections.
 

smastroyin

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Even if we presume the Celtics win the top seed, anyone from the Hawks to the Hornets could be their first round opponent.

The Hawks will be without Paul Millsap for as many as three more games apparently, when and if he returns they finish with a pretty tough schedule. Their remaining games - @PHI, @CHI, @BKN (b2b), BOS, @CLE (b2b), CLE, CHA, @IND (b2b). I feel with this schedule and with Millsap iffy they will drop from the 5. But I was super wrong about them before and might be again. The final game of the season with Indiana might be significant.

The Bucks are playing the best recent ball of this back end of the playoffs group. They are 7-3 in their last ten which has gained them 4 games on the Hawks and 3 on the Pacers. The Celtics get them tonight and on the final game of the season, so may be key in determining whether they face them in the playoffs. Here's their schedule: @BOS, DET, DAL, @OKC, @IND, @PHI, CHA, @BOS. Having all four games against playoff teams on the road is tough.

The Pacers have been meandering a bit and their schedule isn't going to help them, either: @MEM, @TOR, @CLE, TOR, MIL, @ORL, @PHI, ATL . The Pacers are a pretty bad road team this year (11-25), so they might have the toughest schedule.

The Heat are floundering a bit without Waiters, but he'll be back soon. they have probably the second easiest schedule of this group: @NYK, NYK, DEN, @CHA, @TOR, @WAS (b2b), CLE, WAS

The Bulls have the easiest schedule in terms of opponents, but part of that is they don't have many games against the teams ahead of them, so they aren't really in control of their own destiny. CLE, ATL, @NOP (b2b), @NYK, @PHI, @BKN, ORL, BKN. They aren't a good road team so this schedule isn't quite as much a gimme as it first appears. But it may be enough that they sneak in.

The Pistons are a putrid road team and they are 2-8 in their last ten. Not sure they can turn it around. Their schedule: BKN, @MIL, TOR, @HOU, @MEM, WAS (b2b), @ORL.

The Hornets are still alive and have a lot of opportunity to make up games, but that means they have a fairly tough schedule: @TOR, DEN, @OKC, @WAS, MIA, BOS, @MIL, @ATL. They lost by 10 to the Bucks at home last night, so not sure they are up to the task.

The Sixers and Knicks should be eliminated by the weekend, Magic and Nets already are.

 

smastroyin

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Tonight's games of consequence:

Bucks @ Celtics. 2nd night of a road b2b for the Bucks. Celtics on 2 days rest and should have everyone healthy and available. A game the Celtics should win most of the time, but not a gimme by any means with the way the Bucks have been playing.
Wizards @ Clippers. The Wizards had been terrible on the road but they are playing a bit better lately. Hard to tell what's going on with the Clippers.
Hornets @ Raptors. Again, if Charlotte is going to make a run to the playoffs, they're going to have to beat playoff teams to do it. But Toronto has really settled down after their initial stutter after Lowry went down.
Hawks @ Sixers. Hawks without Millsap again, probably have to favor the Sixers in this contest.
Heat @ Knicks. First game of a home and home for these two.
Pacers @ Grizz. Any road game the Pacers can win will help them, obviously.
 

Imbricus

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You've got to like the Clippers tonight. They had that embarrassing epic meltdown on Sunday, after being up by 18 points. This should be a statement game. I'd take Clippers by eight or more.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Rooting very hard to avoid MIL if possible. With their length, I think it's the worst possible match-up for the Cs.
They're two games up on Indiana and Miami while we're two games up on Washington and three on Toronto. I think Milwaukee is good enough to stay the 6 seed or better so I'd guess our first round matchup is either Atlanta, Indiana, or Miami.

I'm rooting for Indiana. That team does nothing to scare me. Throw Crowder and Smart on George, AB on Teague, and make a big guy beat you. Miami is just as scrappy as we are and Atlanta always gives us issues. Budenholzer always seems to give his team a good chance of beating us.
 

sezwho

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Rooting very hard to avoid MIL if possible. With their length, I think it's the worst possible match-up for the Cs.
Yeah, this for sure. Maybe I'm just having a moment, but the list of teams I'm worried about is getting longer even as the Celtics are jockeying for the 1/2 seed. Not saying its impossible, but clearly GSW/Spurs/Cleveland are another tier assuming health and the teams with long/athletic lineups like Toronto, Denver, Mil and the Wizards are real threats as well. They would all be a pickem' from my perspective. Brad is going to have to coach his @#$% off because if either the 3s don't fall or the wrong matchup which frustrates our tiny guards presents early, it could be bloody. Hopefully this is a reverse jinx for Banner 18.
 

BigSoxFan

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With home court, I'd be pretty surprised if we didn't win a series against Milwaukee, Indiana, or Miami so I don't really "fear" any of them but certainly would prefer Indiana/Miami.
 

smastroyin

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The Celtics offense is built around spacing which means if the three's aren't falling they are in trouble. It's the design of the team. When JC and AB go 1-12 they are going to be in trouble every time (nevermind adding Smart's 1-7). I realize that Milwaukee's length is to credit for some of that, but IT was able to find his shot, so I'm going to chalk up at least some of it to just a bad shooting night for those guys.

It's the last game of the season so likely irrelevant, but I'd sure like to see what adjustments Stevens would come up for the next game with after seeing this whole game. This game was essentially lost because of the shooting difference and the shit performance of a single rotation Stevens threw out there to start the 2nd. Remember they ended the first tied at 24. Stevens started the quarter with Smart-Young-Brown-Horford-Olynyk. The Bucks ran off 8 straight points against this rotation without Greek Freak or Middleton on the floor and would extend their lead to 12 (17-5 run over about 5 minutes) before he got Young off.
 
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smastroyin

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Tonight's games of consequence:

Bucks @ Celtics. 2nd night of a road b2b for the Bucks. Celtics on 2 days rest and should have everyone healthy and available. A game the Celtics should win most of the time, but not a gimme by any means with the way the Bucks have been playing.
Wizards @ Clippers. The Wizards had been terrible on the road but they are playing a bit better lately. Hard to tell what's going on with the Clippers.
Hornets @ Raptors. Again, if Charlotte is going to make a run to the playoffs, they're going to have to beat playoff teams to do it. But Toronto has really settled down after their initial stutter after Lowry went down.
Hawks @ Sixers. Hawks without Millsap again, probably have to favor the Sixers in this contest.
Heat @ Knicks. First game of a home and home for these two.
Pacers @ Grizz. Any road game the Pacers can win will help them, obviously.

Celtics got help as the Clippers beat the Wiz and the Hornets managed to take out the Raptors at home. Meanwhile the Hawks beat the Sixers, the Heat crushed the Knicks and the Pacers weren't able to get that road win. Standings don't change much, although the Celtics fall to 2nd again in their virtual tie with Cleveland. Hawks and Bucks and Heat gained a game on the Pacers. Sixers and Knicks both officially eliminated.

Tonight's slate: Cavaliers @ Bulls. The Bulls have played their best ball against the Cavs. Still think the Cavs are going to put it together at some point, and it might start tonight.
Nets @ Pistons. Home game against the worst team in the league, so it's pretty much a must-win for the Pistons playoff hopes, which are already dismal.
 

slamminsammya

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Yea, there were a couple lineups out there last night that had me scratching my head. Especially running with Zeller and Amir up to like 4 minutes left in the foruth.
 

nighthob

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Celtics got help as the Clippers beat the Wiz and the Hornets managed to take out the Raptors at home. Meanwhile the Hawks beat the Sixers, the Heat crushed the Knicks and the Pacers weren't able to get that road win. Standings don't change much, although the Celtics fall to 2nd again in their virtual tie with Cleveland. Hawks and Bucks and Heat gained a game on the Pacers. Sixers and Knicks both officially eliminated.

Tonight's slate: Cavaliers @ Bulls. The Bulls have played their best ball against the Cavs. Still think the Cavs are going to put it together at some point, and it might start tonight.
Nets @ Pistons. Home game against the worst team in the league, so it's pretty much a must-win for the Pistons playoff hopes, which are already dismal.
As long as Boston avoids the long teams like the Bucks in the first round I'm going to be happy. Miami is scrappy, and they'd make Boston work for it, but the Celtics would take that matchup. My hope is for the Pacers. I don't think Boston has much of a chance in the second round if the top 4 win out. Toronto is just a horrific matchup for them. They might be able to beat the Wizards, but I'd still expect Washington to win.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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I think they beat Washington with home court but it probably goes to 7. Toronto with a healthy Lowry beats us in 6 or 7 I think, even with home court. That match-up is godawful.
 

smastroyin

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Mostly we're scared of BOS (and maybe that comes off snarkly but my point is, most people here don't believe the Celtics are as competitive in a playoff series as they are in the regular season).
 

Cesar Crespo

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Milwaukee would be the worst 1st round matchup, Miami 2nd. A healthy Atlanta may pose problems. I think the Celtics beat the Pacers, Pistons, Bulls or Hornets easily. Jabari isn't back until 2018, but if he comes back fully healthy that Bucks team is going to be a legit contender in the east with a very long window.

I think the Celtics can make the Finals but I also think they can make a 1st round exit if they play Miami/Milwaukee. It would suck to be the 3rd 1st seed to ever lose to an 8 seed, and one of those was in a strike shortened season. The other 2 times: The Dikembe Mutombo Nuggets vs the Sonics and whoever the Knicks beat the year they lost to the Spurs in the Finals.
 

Bozo Texino

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It would suck to be the 3rd 1st seed to ever lose to an 8 seed, and one of those was in a strike shortened season. The other 2 times: The Dikembe Mutombo Nuggets vs the Sonics and whoever the Knicks beat the year they lost to the Spurs in the Finals.
The Warriors beat the Mavericks in 2007.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The Warriors beat the Mavericks in 2007.
I knew that too. Thanks. I'd rather the C's not be the 4th but I'd still rather the 1 seed. I can't see the Bucks being the 8th seed, but the 7th seed is definitely possible and they are the team that I'm most afraid of.
 

RetractableRoof

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Yea, there were a couple lineups out there last night that had me scratching my head. Especially running with Zeller and Amir up to like 4 minutes left in the foruth.
In preparation for the playoffs and the possibility of facing teams with troublesome bigs Stevens HAS to give Zeller and Amir (as a pairing also) some run so they aren't rusted to the bench if needed. That would seem to mean against bigs, so in some ways he's forced to be reactive to the other team to get the minutes Stevens deems appropriate.

I think it's a good sign that he is valuing playoff prep over potential playoff seed.

Others may read it different.
 

HomeRunBaker

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In preparation for the playoffs and the possibility of facing teams with troublesome bigs Stevens HAS to give Zeller and Amir (as a pairing also) some run so they aren't rusted to the bench if needed. That would seem to mean against bigs, so in some ways he's forced to be reactive to the other team to get the minutes Stevens deems appropriate.

I think it's a good sign that he is valuing playoff prep over potential playoff seed.

Others may read it different.
So Stevens was treating last night as a form of a pre-season game? I'm not buying that for one second. He placed his $65m man Olynyk on the bench next to him for 41 of the 48 minutes due to him being a poor matchup against the Bucks length. Zeller replaced his minutes and was effective doing so. When you take Olynyk out of the 4/5 rotation these are the guys we have to play those second unit minutes.....Zeller and Amir.

For the record, when Zeller completed his 3-point play the sub was ready to check in until the clock stopped with like 5 1/2 minutes to go then Horford couldn't get in for Amir since there was no stoppage of play on multiple possessions.
 

RetractableRoof

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So Stevens was treating last night as a form of a pre-season game? I'm not buying that for one second. He placed his $65m man Olynyk on the bench next to him for 41 of the 48 minutes due to him being a poor matchup against the Bucks length. Zeller replaced his minutes and was effective doing so. When you take Olynyk out of the 4/5 rotation these are the guys we have to play those second unit minutes.....Zeller and Amir.

For the record, when Zeller completed his 3-point play the sub was ready to check in until the clock stopped with like 5 1/2 minutes to go then Horford couldn't get in for Amir since there was no stoppage of play on multiple possessions.
Preseason game was your phrase not mine and I also didn't say he wasn't trying to win. I said I thought that he placed a higher priority on getting Zeller (and the Amir pairing) minutes to get rust off than treating it like a must have. You don't agree, gotcha.

Edit: I'm not the only one that noticed/heard Stevens was looking to get Zeller reps: http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/nba/1976/tyler-zeller - I'm sure my interpretation is the issue... lol
 

smastroyin

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So the Bulls beat the Cavs again (4-0 this season). Have to admit, I'd love to see what would happen in a playoff series with those two (I suspect the Cavs would roll them, but I think they were trying to win last night and didnt), but Bulls are still on the outside looking in. Anyway, Celtics are back to a half game lead over the Cavs. I think essentially Wednesday's game is going to decide it.
Pistons beat the Nets, which keeps them in some form of contention.

Tonight has a full slate:
Magic @ Celtics. Obviously I'd really like to see them mop the floor with these guys at this point, and the bench gets a lot of run without giving up the leads.
Sixers @ Cavs. 2nd night of a b2b for the Cavs
Wizards @ Jazz: Wiz have been better on the road lately, but the Jazz are a good team.
Pacers @ Raptors: Big game in terms of seeding everywhere.
Pistons @ Bucks: Pistons on the b2b, and not very good. Good chance there playoff hopes essentially die tonight (that's going to be their story every night without a lot of help)
Knicks @ Heat: The Knicks seem hopeless and already lost the first game of this home and home, at home.
Nuggets @ Hornets: The Hornets got a big win in Toronto and seem to be one of those teams that can step up or down in big ways from day to day. Basically they are in the same state as the Pistons.
 

the moops

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What the hell happens in the unlikely scenario that the top 4 seeds are decided when the Celtics face BRK in the second to last game of the year (assumption that BRK has not secured top pick)?
 

NoXInNixon

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What the hell happens in the unlikely scenario that the top 4 seeds are decided when the Celtics face BRK in the second to last game of the year (assumption that BRK has not secured top pick)?
DA tells Stevens to play all Starters full Starter minutes. They can take off the last game of the regular season if guys need rest.
 

JakeRae

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What the hell happens in the unlikely scenario that the top 4 seeds are decided when the Celtics face BRK in the second to last game of the year (assumption that BRK has not secured top pick)?
It's not happening. The Nets need to go 5-2 to tie a winless Lakers team at this point. They will pick up those losses before they play the Celtics. It's also highly unlikely that playoff seeding is decided by that point for the Celtics.
 

the moops

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It's not happening. The Nets need to go 5-2 to tie a winless Lakers team at this point. They will pick up those losses before they play the Celtics. It's also highly unlikely that playoff seeding is decided by that point for the Celtics.
Well yea, but play along :)
 

Cesar Crespo

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But the Nets could go 7-0 and finish with the 3rd worst record... Suns are only a game up on the Lakers.
 

Cellar-Door

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I knew that too. Thanks. I'd rather the C's not be the 4th but I'd still rather the 1 seed. I can't see the Bucks being the 8th seed, but the 7th seed is definitely possible and they are the team that I'm most afraid of.
5th. Grizzlies beat the Spurs in 2011.
 

snowmanny

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It's not happening. The Nets need to go 5-2 to tie a winless Lakers team at this point. They will pick up those losses before they play the Celtics. It's also highly unlikely that playoff seeding is decided by that point for the Celtics.
4-2
 

Cesar Crespo

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I assumed there was no chance Charlotte would actually make the playoffs. Would this be the ideal first round match up for the Celtics?

Their remaining schedule: @Washington, vs Miami, vs Boston, @Milwaukee, @ Atlanta. They are a game behind Miami so that game will be huge.

Frank Kaminsky since 2/1: 21 games 30.7 mp, .426/.375/.763 15.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists. 51/136 from 3 on 6.1 attempts a game. That isn't including today's game where he has 18 points, 2 rebounds, 2 steals and a block on 5/9 shooting and 3/5 from 3. I like to hate the guy but a 7 footer shooting 38% from 3s on 6+ attempts a game has some value. For the year, he's now at .335 from 3. First 36 games, 4.0 attempts a game 40-144 .278. Last 34 games: 5.6 attempts per game 72-190 .379. Last year he shot .337 on 4 attempts. He shot .369 in college on 289 attempts.
 

smastroyin

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Here's a post awesome weekend for me update. I realize everyone seems much more concerned with the Nets draft position but since we seem to have 3 threads dedicated to those updates, I'll just do the playoff update here.

Cavs (5)
Celtics 0 (5)
Raptors 3.5 (4)
Wizards 3.5 (4)
Bucks 10.5 (4)
Hawks 11 (5)
Bulls 12.5 (4)
Pacers 12.5 (4)
Heat 13 (5)
Hornets 14.5 (4)
Pistons 15 (5)

So looking at was is still up for grabs:
Top seed - obviously, tonight's game between the Celtics and Cavs is pretty likely going to determine this outcome. Whoever wins owns the tiebreaker and a 1 game lead with 4 to go (if Cavs win, they have better HTH record, if C's win, they have better division record). The Raptors can still technically pass both the Celtics and the Cavs (If the Cavs lose out and the Celtics lose out after beating the Cavs. Toronto wins tiebreak with Celtics). The Wizards need a more complicated scenario where the Cavs lose out, the Celtics lose out after beating the Cavs, and Toronto loses 2 of their other games while beating the Cavs. It is unlikely, but the Celtics Nets game next week could have playoff order implications as well as ping pong ball implications. I think the board might crash if the C's manage to lose that one.

For the back end, anything can really still happen. The Hornets loss to the Wizards last night dealt them a pretty heavy blow (they really needed to win out) but they are still techincally alive. The Pistons are also still technically alive but they are playing bad basketball. Both teams need a really complicated set of results to get in but it's possible.

We will have some clarity after the next two days:

Tonight:
Cavs @ Celtics. Duh. No Crowder is a big blow to the Celtics. Cavs on second night of btb.
Raptors @ Pistons. If Raps lose they lose their shot at the number 1 seed.
Heat @ Hornets. Two teams on the outside looking in right now, so huge for them.

Tomorrow:
Bulls @ Sixers. Bulls control their own destiny with an easy schedule, taking this game makes them almost a lock for the playoffs.
Bucks @ Pacers. Pacers will have someone crawling up on their 8 spot and are a much better home team so they could really use this win.
Wizards @ Knicks. If Wiz lose, they lose their shot at number 1 seed.
Celtics @ Hawks. Second night of back to back to Celtics, and they probably still won't have Crowder.
 
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lexrageorge

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...
So looking at was is still up for grabs:
Top seed - obviously, tonight's game between the Celtics and Cavs is pretty likely going to determine this outcome. Whoever wins owns the tiebreaker and a 1 game lead with 4 to go (if Cavs win, they have better HTH record, if C's win, they have better division record). The Raptors can still technically pass both the Celtics and the Cavs (If the Cavs lose out and the Celtics lose out after beating the Cavs. Toronto wins tiebreak with Celtics). The Wizards need a more complicated scenario where the Cavs lose out, the Celtics lose out after beating the Cavs, and Toronto loses 2 of their other games while beating the Cavs. It is unlikely, but the Celtics Nets game next week could have playoff order implications as well as ping pong ball implications. I think the board might crash if the C's manage to lose that one.
I'm not sure the bolded is correct. From this link (scroll to bottom):

http://www.espn.com/nba/playoffs/matchups

The division record tiebreaker applies only if the 2 teams are in the same division. Which means a tiebreaker would go to conference record if the teams are tied head-to-head. The Cavs have a 1 game lead in conference record, and all remaining games for both teams are against Eastern Conference teams. So, if the C's win, but end up tied with the Cavs, the Celtics still lose the tiebreaker.
 

smastroyin

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You're right. They really should just torch the divisions.
 

oumbi

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Over on Celticsblog I saw an interesting argument on the advantages for Cleveland to finish as the second seed.....

Further support for them (Cleveland) falling to the 2 seed - would line them up for (most likely) Indy (3-1), Toronto (3-0), and then most likely Boston (3-1), which they're 9-2 against collectively.

If they retain the one seed, then they'll most likely play either Miami (1-2) or Chicago (0-4), Washington (2-1), and then Boston (3-1), which they're 6-8 against.

So it actually probably makes the most sense for them to rest their guys and take the second seed rather than play their guys and fight for the first seed.
 

chilidawg

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Over on Celticsblog I saw an interesting argument on the advantages for Cleveland to finish as the second seed.....

Further support for them (Cleveland) falling to the 2 seed - would line them up for (most likely) Indy (3-1), Toronto (3-0), and then most likely Boston (3-1), which they're 9-2 against collectively.

If they retain the one seed, then they'll most likely play either Miami (1-2) or Chicago (0-4), Washington (2-1), and then Boston (3-1), which they're 6-8 against.

So it actually probably makes the most sense for them to rest their guys and take the second seed rather than play their guys and fight for the first seed.
Clearly they're not approaching like they think that though. Love, James and Irving all over 40 minutes today.
 

DJnVa

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If the Cavs have to duck teams like Miami and the Bulls, then they're not unbeatable.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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I guess maybe not in the intended spirit of this thread, but does anyone have any insight as to whether Game 1 is going to be Saturday or Sunday/when that is announced? Most ticket site have it listed as Saturday but with the disclaimer that the date can change. Would pull the trigger on tickets for Saturday but Sunday is Easter so that would be out.
 

wilked

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Celts have the edge over CLE at this point for the #1 seed based on remaining matchups, yes? I see the Celts likely at 2-0, and the Cavs likely at 1-1
 

HomeRunBaker

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Cavs are resting LeBron and Kyrie along with Thompson being out due to injury. They are listing Love as questionable with an illness. The #1 seed is there for the taking tonight.
Love is out as well per Rotoworld which is usually as accurate as they come.