Celtics Playoff Watch
- Thread starter smastroyin
- Start date
Danny Ainge is a damn good guy to have running the Celtics. They may not be a true contender yet but they are absolutely relevant just five years after the big three threatened to derail LeBron's South Beach Talent Train. Furthermore, they look set to contend for the next five years as well.
And dare I say it, they may surprise us yet this season (yes, I still think they can take anyone in the East though I know I am in a small minority and they are a tough match-up for Golden State too...).
And dare I say it, they may surprise us yet this season (yes, I still think they can take anyone in the East though I know I am in a small minority and they are a tough match-up for Golden State too...).
you are insane..... you watched the last game against a full go healthy cavs team right?
If the Celtics get Toronto in the second round they are done then, as long as both derozan and Lowry are healthy. Hell, even Washington will be tough for them. Honestly, even a first round matchup will be tough for this team although I do honk they should win it.
I think a lot of it comes down to effort with this team. If they "flip the switch" and play with high intensity every game, especially on the defensive end and on the glass, they're going to be a tough out. If they're ballhawking every possession and then hustling to crash the boards they have slight upset potential. If they're passive on that end like in the Cleveland game forget it.
Offensively, I'm a little worried that IT getting manhandled every possession is going to kill them, but hopefully a healthy AB and Horford neutralizes that a little. They looked good last night.
The bench is pretty putrid, but thankfully they won't get a ton of minutes.
Offensively, I'm a little worried that IT getting manhandled every possession is going to kill them, but hopefully a healthy AB and Horford neutralizes that a little. They looked good last night.
The bench is pretty putrid, but thankfully they won't get a ton of minutes.
I feel the same way...and even the first round will be tough. If they get Atlanta it will be even tougher. They look like a team that peaked a month ago. I have visions of triple-teams on IT while the rest of the team can't score.
The last game with CLE turned when LeBron played the 5, which was necessitated when TT was out. First of all, LBJ is typically unguardable but the Cavs can force switches that the Cs haven't figured out how to defend yet: i.e, LBJ vs. Smart, AB, or KO.
Brad has to figure something out for this matchup for the Cs to have a chance.
The key for me is Bradley. We need consistent games like last night. If he plays poorly, there just isn't enough offense to beat the Cavs, Raptors, or Wizards. I expect Crowder and Horford to be relatively consistent in what they give us. Isaiah will do Isaiah things. Bradley is the key player for me. I doubt Brown/Rozier play a whole lot in the playoffs so it really comes down to the IT/Bradley/Smart rotation.
This is where I am at. If Bradley can hit his open shots and force the other team's defense to be honest, not only does he carry more of the offensive burden but it opens up lanes to the basket for IT and the other guys that like to slash.
With the last two days of the season upon us, here is how things stand:
1: Celtics or Cavs
2: Cavs or Celtics
3: Raptors
4: Wizards
5: Hawks or Bucks
6: Bucks or Pacers
7: Pacers or Hawks or Bulls
8: Bulls or Heat or Pacers
If the Hawks win tonight (hosting the Hornets), 5 and 6 will be set. (Hawks 5 Bucks 6)
1: Celtics or Cavs
2: Cavs or Celtics
3: Raptors
4: Wizards
5: Hawks or Bucks
6: Bucks or Pacers
7: Pacers or Hawks or Bulls
8: Bulls or Heat or Pacers
If the Hawks win tonight (hosting the Hornets), 5 and 6 will be set. (Hawks 5 Bucks 6)
Well I am certainly insane. I also acknowledge that the odds favor the Cs being bounced by the second round if not the first.
That said, the reality is that every team in the Conference has flaws. Cleveland has a porous defense. Toronto has had problems in tough playoff series and Washington's bench is putrid even when you consider the tighter rotations they will use in the playoffs. Each team is beatable imho and, as others have said, if the Celtics get good effort and enough scoring out of Bradley, Horford and Crowder they can make some noise.
One thing I refuse to do is let one late season game against a flawed Cavs team convince me that Boston has no shot. And I know that Cleveland won the season series. But they are beatable.
We just like to moan about the Celtics because we watch them every night. In fact I think fans of any team outside of GSW have a bevy of playoff worries.
The Cavaliers are still the favorites in the East if everyone is healthy. That's clear. But even as someone who is really annoyed at some of the play of the Celtics of late, it's pessimistic to *expect* them to lose a first round series at this point, and to have already virtually given up on winning in the second round. Don't get me wrong, Stevens and this core have to go out there and prove they can win a series, I understand some skepticism based on last year. But people here talk about them like a fringe playoff team.
The Cavaliers are still the favorites in the East if everyone is healthy. That's clear. But even as someone who is really annoyed at some of the play of the Celtics of late, it's pessimistic to *expect* them to lose a first round series at this point, and to have already virtually given up on winning in the second round. Don't get me wrong, Stevens and this core have to go out there and prove they can win a series, I understand some skepticism based on last year. But people here talk about them like a fringe playoff team.
This is correct but understated. It is dramatically more divorced from reasonable expectations of this team to have serious concerns about the first round v. modest hopes for the finals.
I would also say that there is a real hope this team has a switch to flip this year. They are a much better offensive team than last year, and that has carried them, but the defense, and in particular the wings, have not been playing close to the caliber of defense that they played last year. I don't think we can expect it, but we've seen flashes of that defense during the season in some big games and there is reason to hope it will resurface in the playoffs.
For the rest of the conference, Toronto scares me. A healthy Toronto team should also scare Cleveland. Toronto is very good. Washington does not. Washington does not match up well against the Celtics and is not a team Boston should lose to with home court absent injuries or their smalls elevating their game to a level they've never really played at before.
The Celtics are sprained ankle away from first round exit or a trip to the finals. I expect they win their first round series. As others have said if Bradley is back playing well they are in the mix in the east. I expect Brad will have agood enough plan it will come down to making shots. Thy are going to get looks from the 3 but will have to be hot to advance. They do not rebounbd well enough to tough out many "ugly" wins.
Also, how do the Celtics advancing affect TV ratings?
Also, how do the Celtics advancing affect TV ratings?
Dwayne Casey said nobody will be resting for the Raptors tomorrow night. More good news for the Celtics.
Yeah, we're worried because we watch the Celtics every night. How the C's will match-up defensively is a problem, but so is Isaiah's one-man show. The Celtics will have to find offense somewhere, and even if Bradley and Crowder flip a switch defensively, everyone else does too. There's always some surprises defensively in the playoffs: last year JR Smith turned into a fucking ballhawk. Who could've predicted that?
But if you're a Toronto fan you're terribly worried about Toronto burying themselves under DeRozan DeChucking and about how your ISO offense is going to operate under heightened playoff defenses in general. If you're Cleveland you're worried about how porous your perimeter defense is: JR Smith is back to being a pumpkin defensively, Kyrie has his troubles with screens, K-Love has been on skates since he came back, and TT isn't good enough at C to compensate for all of that. And if you're a Wizards fan you're worried because your team is three fucking guys.
Apologies. Somehow, I digested your post, liked it, and then reposted pretty much the same thing, and didn't even realize I had. And this is after spending the whole day dealing with students who plagiarized.
That was my hamfisted attempt at giving your post love while trying to incorporate topical humor. In short, your post was spot on.
Wow......
Brian RobbVerified account @CelticsHub 29s30 seconds ago
Celtics' odds of keeping top seed just went up. Bucks game notes indicate Giannis, Middleton, Snell and Dellavedova will sit out vs. C's.
Brian RobbVerified account @CelticsHub 29s30 seconds ago
Celtics' odds of keeping top seed just went up. Bucks game notes indicate Giannis, Middleton, Snell and Dellavedova will sit out vs. C's.
First, while I agree with you about Rozier, I would be shocked if Brown didn't get his normal 15 minutes off the bench. While he doesn't add to the scoring of the second unit, he does add to its defense.
Second, I hope / trust Brad uses the IT/Bradley/Smart rotation judiciously. There are a lot of ways for specific teams to take advantage of that rotation and if they are not scoring at a good clip, this unit can give up a lot of points very quickly to the wrong team.
I don't think fans of Toronto or Cleveland worry about their team getting bounced in the 1st round, and that's not a chicken little sentiment either. It looks like the Celtics will luck out and get the Bulls or Indy, but the other matchups are scary.
Toronto should worry a little because the Bucks are actually a good basketball team. There are 6 of those in the East. The Cavs and Celtics shouldn't be worried for that reason. Well, the Cavs should be a little worried because they've done nothing outside of the Celtics game in the last 3 months to demonstrate they belong in the playoffs at all, let alone as the 2 seed. The Celtics shouldn't be worried because they are healthy, playing as well as anyone in the East, and much better than any of their possible first round opponents. Assuming they end up the 1 seed, they should also be able to win a second round matchup against the Wizards or Hawks, but, per my original point, nothing is a lock after the first round because all the teams are good and none of them are great.
Sorry, didnt mean that Stevens should use all 3 at the same time. I think Brown and Rozier will be used at about 10 mins/game. We also don't know if Brown is ready for playoff basketball. I hope he can give us what he gave in the regular season but if he freezes up or makes a lot of rookie mistakes, I see Stevens leaning heavily on his vets.
I was talking about this in the other thread, but I think Toronto should be worried about the Bucks. Middleton is one of the better shooting guards in the league and they've been nasty since he came back. Their length will give Toronto a lot of trouble on both ends, especially with Middleton playing the 3 and and Giannis at the 4. That leaves Snell at the 2, and he's 6 foot 7. It's a huge team. They've got a ton of people they can throw at Derozan.
FWIW the Tornoto announcers have been discussing the folly of resting people and touting the "momentum" idea all week.
Interesting trivia: it appears you have to go back to the 2004-05 NBA season to find a weaker 52- or 53-win team than this year's Celtics, based on point differential. Celts ended the season at +2.7, which is the worst since Seattle won 52 games in 2004-05 at +2.3. Seattle was seeded third and won its first round series 4-1, then lost 4-2 in round two. (Note: this kind of analysis yields only about one comparable team or two in a year, and some years none, so the results sound a bit more dramatic than they are.)
They were also sub 500 (4-5) early in the season during Horford's concussion stint so the full C's lineup looks even better
Back on March 23, I compiled the Celtics games where they have had all 5 starters available. At the time, they were 23-8, +132 in those games, and 23-18, +48 in others. At that time, I and many others thought that with the healthy starting 5, they might be quite a bit better than people are giving them credit for.
Since then, these have been the results:
vPHO, +10, no Bradley
vMIA, +4
vMIL, -3
vORL, +1, no Bradley
@NYN, +16, no Bradley
vCLE, -23
@ATL, -7
@CHA, +7, no Amir
vBKN, +9
vMIL bench, +8
So they are 3-3, -12 with the starters down the stretch and 4-0, +34 otherwise, though that's largely a measure of the competition.
So I think really, the concerns over the past couple weeks are largely because they have not put together a quality game against a quality opponent healthy, unless you count beating the Heat by 4 at home.
Since then, these have been the results:
vPHO, +10, no Bradley
vMIA, +4
vMIL, -3
vORL, +1, no Bradley
@NYN, +16, no Bradley
vCLE, -23
@ATL, -7
@CHA, +7, no Amir
vBKN, +9
vMIL bench, +8
So they are 3-3, -12 with the starters down the stretch and 4-0, +34 otherwise, though that's largely a measure of the competition.
So I think really, the concerns over the past couple weeks are largely because they have not put together a quality game against a quality opponent healthy, unless you count beating the Heat by 4 at home.