Celtics Regular Season thread

jmcc5400

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Miami is pretty clearly the first round matchup that would be nice to avoid (and per 538 the one we most likely will face)
 

NoXInNixon

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Miami is pretty clearly the first round matchup that would be nice to avoid (and per 538 the one we most likely will face)
'Member when some people were worried about Miami having a worse record than Brooklyn this season?
 

smastroyin

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Miami is the best team of the bunch by most stats, but the C's have matched up well with them (yes, I know the first two games they played were before Miami figured whatever it is they figured out). The Heat kept the third game close even without Dragic playing, but it was the second night of a btb for the C's, 3rd game in 4 nights, and Heat kept it close basically by abusing Gerald Green who somehow was a -11 in only 5 minutes played in a game his team won. I'm still more worried about the Hawks, who are the only team on the list that has handed the Celtics asses to them this year, and it was in the Garden, and everyone was healthy. Of course if Millsap is not 100% that changes the equation more than a little.

The Celtics have two games with the Bucks (both home), and one game each with Atlanta (@), Indiana, and Miami. So I guess we'll get a little preview.

But, while all of these teams have upset potential, the Celtics should beat them. If there's another first round playoff exit, it's going to take a big shine off the improvement of the team.
 
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chilidawg

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Miami is pretty clearly the first round matchup that would be nice to avoid (and per 538 the one we most likely will face)
538 has the Hawks and Pacers finishing at 42 wins, Bucks and Heat at 41. Pistons and Bulls are fading, projected at 39 wins, but still with a 27% and 38% chance of making the playoffs, respectively. In other words, the bottom 4 seeds are still a complete crapshoot. Just get the #1 seed and take your chances.
 

ALiveH

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Given the recent playoff history, whatever seed we are I would be satisfied if we just make it out of the 1st round. If we make it into the ECF I will be ecstatic.
 

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I can't wrap my head around the fact that the Celtics could be the 1 seed. Crazy, crazy year.
Not only that, all four teams that have better records than the Celtics have recently shown signs of weakness in one way or another. The Celtics are clearly still in the second tier IMO but the separation between the tiers seems a bit smaller than it did at the beginning of the year.
 

Red Averages

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I can't wrap my head around the fact that the Celtics could be the 1 seed. Crazy, crazy year.
At what point do we change our thinking on Cleveland if they can't close out the #1 seed? They aren't losing because they are resting starters, they are just getting beat.
 

smastroyin

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Curious to see what Stevens is doing with the rotations. Some recent goings-on, starting from least likely to see playoff minutes:

- James Young seems to be done, and will not get competitive minutes. (I'm sure as Stevens rests guys Young will get run, and maybe it will be in competitive games, but you know what I mean)
- Gerald Green is still instant offense, so you might see him in those situations where they desperately need that, but I'm guessing he's being cut out of the rotations for the most part as well, as long as Isaiah is playing.
- Terry Rozier was sloppy against the Wizards, and has been in a shooting slump. Curious to see if last night's DNP-CD was a preview or just a "get your head right" night, or just the fact that they didn't play small.

- Jonas Jerebko has had back to back DNP-CD's and while he hasn't been super effective, he hasn't been egregiously bad. Not sure if he just needs a rest or what.
- Tyler Zeller has been playing a bit more, maybe to add size. I'm guessing unless something is wrong with Jerebko these guys will be match-up types.
- Jaylen Brown is definitely in, seems destined for 15 minutes or so per game. I'm guessing he'll have the chance to earn more, but while he was good last night, I'm not sure he's going to actually get the minutes.

- Kelly Olynyk. 30 minutes last night against a playoff team. (and had 0 PF!) This is likely matchup based (and Amir looked a little lost last night), but for all the gnashing of teeth about his play (deserved sometime) he's clearly the 7th man.
- Marcus Smart. The team is so much better when he's coming off the bench. Something about him starting screws up his game and makes all the rotations wrong. I realize this is also because IT4 is the best scorer on the team by far.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I've been waiting to see what a tightened up rotation would look like. I still like Rozier some but in the playoffs he's a 'break glass in case of emergency' guy. He showed well last year under similar circumstances against the Hawks. The bigger problem for him will be if the C's end up adding Fultz or Ball to the roster.

Stevens likes to mix it up depending on the the opponent so JJ and Zeller are both in play. Somewhat surprisingly, the C's have had a bit of success going big in the right moments (Horford and Olynyk crushed GS, for example), so this will depend on how effective Amir and/or KO are on any given night. On a side note, Zizic steps in to the Zeller role next season. Giddy-up.
 

HomeRunBaker

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At what point do we change our thinking on Cleveland if they can't close out the #1 seed? They aren't losing because they are resting starters, they are just getting beat.
I don't feel they really care a whole lot about the 1-seed as that only comes into play if Boston makes the ECF against them. They need to focus on health, balancing rest with conditioning, and integrating Love, Smith, Korver, and Deron into their rotation while seeing if they can get anything out of Sanders......it's essentially their pre-season and that is how they have been approaching it. Their defense has been non-existent over the past several weeks. Some has to do with their second unit being a clusterfvck as they integrate an entirely new unit and some has to do with the starters approaching these games like the pre-season if they are even playing at all.

Cleveland has a rough schedule coming up and will surely sit LeBron in several of these games as they have all season. The Celtics game is one that both LeBron and Kyrie could sit with how the game falls being their 4th game in 6 nights.
 

Sam Ray Not

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ITheir defense has been non-existent over the past several weeks. Some has to do with their second unit being a clusterfvck as they integrate an entirely new unit and some has to do with the starters approaching these games like the pre-season if they are even playing at all.
And some has to do with the fact they their core is fairly mediocre defensively to begin with (#10 ranked last season, #20 the season before), and that their three most noteworthy recent additions to the rotation — 34 y.o. Frye, 36 y.o. Korver, 33 y.o. tubby Deron — are all horrific defenders. Derrick Williams and the Larry Sanders Show add some D in theory, but only in theory, since they're both unlikely to get meaningful minutes in the playoffs.

They dropped to #22 in the league defense last night after giving up 123 to the Gallo-less Nuggets. Even by normal , modern-day standards of regular season coasting/resting, that's horrid. The Spurs and Warriors do plenty of coasting and resting, too, and are #1 and #2 in the league in defense.

TL;DR: C'mon Celtics, kick these f*ckers' asses!
 

DJnVa

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You'd think if the Cavs wanted to treat this as preseason, then James would get more rest. He played more minutes than any starter last night--that's not a preseason rotation.
 

RetractableRoof

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You'd think if the Cavs wanted to treat this as preseason, then James would get more rest. He played more minutes than any starter last night--that's not a preseason rotation.
Pre-season for everyone but Lebron? He needs to maintain his minutes so his season/career numbers don't slip. I'm not being sarcastic. I honestly believe that is why he is playing so many minutes. If he is going to actually play any of a game he needs enough run in the game to not let his numbers slip - but he is self-aware enough to not just play hero ball and get his numbers then sit down. Or maybe I'm just a hater :)
 

HomeRunBaker

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You'd think if the Cavs wanted to treat this as preseason, then James would get more rest. He played more minutes than any starter last night--that's not a preseason rotation.
LeBron doesn't exert a ton of energy in these regular season games compared to what he does in the playoffs and is fully healthy and fresh. He has also sat out 10% of his teams games this year to manage the back to backs. Lesser players exert much more energy in the same amount of minutes......LeBron could probably play even more without showing any effects from it.
 

smastroyin

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Just for fun, really, here are the results of every game that the Celtics starters have been healthy:

vBKN win 122-117 (1-0, +5)
@CHI lose 99-105 (1-1, -1)
@CHA win 104-98 (2-1, +5)
@DET win 94-92 (3-1, +7)
@MIN win 99-93 (4-1, +13)
@BKN win 111-92 (5-1, +32)
vSAS lose 103-109 (5-2, +26)
vDET lose 114-121 (5-3, +19)
vSAC win 97-92 (6-3, +24)
@PHI win 107-106 (7-3, +25)
@HOU lose 106-107 (7-4, +24)*
vCHA win 96-88 (8-4, +32)
@MIA win 105-95 (9-4, +42)
@MEM win 112-109 (10-4, +45)
@IND win 109-102 (11-4, +52)
@OKC lose 112-117 (11-5, +47)
@NYK win 119-114 (12-5, +52)
vMEM win 113-103 (13-5, +62)
@CLE lose 118-124 (13-6, +56)
vUTA win 115-104 (14-6, +67)
vPHI win 110-106 (15-6, +71)
vCHA win 108-98 (16-6, +81)
vATL lose 98-114 (16-7, +65)
vCLE win 103-99 (17-7, +69)
@LAL win 115-95 (18-7, +89)
@GSW win 99-86 (19-7, +102)
@DEN lose 99-119 (19-8, +82)
vCHI win 100-80 (20-8, +102)
vMIN win 117-104 (21-8, +115)
vWAS win 110-102 (22-8, +123)
vIND win 109-100 (23-8, +132)

In games not fully healthy, they are 23-18, +48.

* - technically, Jerebko started this game in pace of Amir, and Amir only played 5 minutes, so it shouldn't count, but he was available so I'm counting it.

There are still a few stinkers here (home loss vs DET, getting spanked by ATL, and not competing against DEN (I know they just beat the Cavs out there too)) but pretty solid. Although I'm sure many teams probably end up with similar type splits.

(edit: I'm dumb)
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Cleveland is 31-7 with LeBron, Kyrie and Love.

Comparitively speaking 23-8 is pretty damn good for us.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Atlanta at Milwaukee tonight without Milsap. With a win, the Bucks would be tied with Atlanta for the 5 seed with an identical record. If the Pacers beat the Nuggets as well, it would be a 3 way tie. Milsap may not play Sunday vs the Nets either. Depending on his return, Atlanta may somehow miss the playoffs if Detroit or Chicago gets hot.
 

ifmanis5

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What's going on here? Is the lack of effort lately just the long season taking a toll on the energy? Are they just out of gas? Bored? Just missing open shots? I'm having a hard time telling which it is. Maybe a combo. The whole team looks to have tired legs.
 

chilidawg

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What's going on here? Is the lack of effort lately just the long season taking a toll on the energy? Are they just out of gas? Bored? Just missing open shots? I'm having a hard time telling which it is. Maybe a combo. The whole team looks to have tired legs.
I just saw the 4th quarter, but I thought they were playing decently, but couldn't hit open 3's or free throws. They're not a team that can shoot poorly and win.
 

sezwho

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Lots of similar comments in other threads, but seems like the best place to put this...

Winding down the regular season with back to back losses against potential playoff opponents obviously sucks. However, its how they lost that is so galling. From jump they looked outclassed and were never really in those games. Without the jumpers falling this team isn't just limited, its neutered. At one point Brad was grasping for straws and ran a lineup shorter than the Bruins: it was predictably a disaster.

Sure, the season is a roller coaster and I'm likely over reacting but I really had an internal dialog (expressed by other posters as well) about Brad perhaps experimenting with lineups and making the W of secondary importance. And this with homecourt advantage at stake.

I get the context of each individual decision, but I wanted Noel or PJ Tucker or Nurkic or something/anything. Maybe Ainge was right and this season's team just isn't worth investing in. I enjoy watching these C's but hope the standings finish the way they are today as the Bulls are the only team I see as better than a coin flip.

Good news is, we will all get to see whether these last two games were just a blip or a harbinger of things to come.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Lots of similar comments in other threads, but seems like the best place to put this...

Winding down the regular season with back to back losses against potential playoff opponents obviously sucks. However, its how they lost that is so galling. From jump they looked outclassed and were never really in those games. Without the jumpers falling this team isn't just limited, its neutered. At one point Brad was grasping for straws and ran a lineup shorter than the Bruins: it was predictably a disaster.

Sure, the season is a roller coaster and I'm likely over reacting but I really had an internal dialog (expressed by other posters as well) about Brad perhaps experimenting with lineups and making the W of secondary importance. And this with homecourt advantage at stake.

I get the context of each individual decision, but I wanted Noel or PJ Tucker or Nurkic or something/anything. Maybe Ainge was right and this season's team just isn't worth investing in. I enjoy watching these C's but hope the standings finish the way they are today as the Bulls are the only team I see as better than a coin flip.
I know I'm repeating myself over the year(s) by stating this but I've still seen no evidence that Ainge will be influenced at all by playoff success or failure. I'm more confident than ever that he views this as a rebuilding situation with the goal of long term Patriot-like dominance. To do this he's sacrificing any short term improvements....(and here's the key part)....that negatively affect his long term plan. I specifically phrase this as Horford didn't cost any assets or affect us extending the core of our team in 2020 and beyond. Competing in the playoffs is great but Ainge isn't ready to "play a hand" unless that hand is a home run long term gain.

I don't believe there has ever in the history of the NBA been a multiple year 50-win team with relatively young players (meaning not in their 30's) that by standing pat could add THREE Top-3 picks in 3 consecutive years. Everyone wants another KG-type move but that doesn't even have to occur for his franchise to have a super bright future.



Good news is, we will all get to see whether these last two games were just a blip or a harbinger of things to come.
What if these results were the true expectations of the two games? Losing convincingly to a far superior team, with LeBron, that was motivated not to lose two consecutive games to us......and losing on the second night of a b2b to a playoff team on the road who just got their best player back.

If we lost b2b against the Knicks and Pistons then I'd ask this question.....but neither result is all that surprising for a team like the Celtics.
 

sezwho

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Competing in the playoffs is great but Ainge isn't ready to "play a hand" unless that hand is a home run long term gain.
I think this is the bottom line as well. Perhaps if an opportunity to obtain an asset that had longer term value presented, he would have moved, but its pretty clear he treated anything they achieve this year as a pleasant bonus.

Its not yet clear whether Ainge places value on playoff success or failure however, as this iteration has only ever had failure so we can't know the difference.
 

Scott Cooper

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I'm hoping the last two efforts are a rope a dope not showing your hand to future playoff opponents.
 

cardiacs

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....and the Cavs end up losing by 14. Again, this is with ATL resting their starters and CLE playing their entire roster. I really don't know what to think about CLE.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The NBA is such a matchup oriented game; it's hard to make sense of games unless you see how the rotations worked. Although ATL hitting 16-37 from 3P seems to mean that they had a magical shooting night or no one could stop Hardaway from getting into the paint.

Speaking of matchups though, it seems to me that the Cs were doing better when Brad went away (and then was forced to go away) from the IT4, AB, Smart lineups. Just checked NBA.com, and unless I ran the filters wrong (always a possibility), those three were -32.5 in 23 minutes against CLE and ATL.

I don't know how Brad is going to thread the needle with those three but my eyes tell me that it's too easy for opposing teams to get mismatches when those three are on the floor together except for against certain specific teams.
 

cardiacs

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AB and Smart just aren't great on the floor together. They don't seem like it just from watching them and the numbers support it either.
 

sezwho

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Speaking of matchups though, it seems to me that the Cs were doing better when Brad went away (and then was forced to go away) from the IT4, AB, Smart lineups. Just checked NBA.com, and unless I ran the filters wrong (always a possibility), those three were -32.5 in 23 minutes against CLE and ATL.

I don't know how Brad is going to thread the needle with those three but my eyes tell me that it's too easy for opposing teams to get mismatches when those three are on the floor together except for against certain specific teams.
Its definitely a matchup game but I can't think of any team we might face in the playoffs (maybe the Bulls?) where those three aren't at a huge disadvantage. IT4, AB and Smart all play with astonishing heart, which I admire greatly, but they get exploited defensively and only IT has a reliable offensive game beyond hoping the 3s fall.

Smart is improving as a distributor but is an epic bricklayer and attacks the rim like a rhino on roller skates. That said, I do still want him on the floor at the end of games along with IT. AB is the one I just can't figure out. He is clearly a great SG/PG defender and can make the outside shot, but the obvious plan teams have to just switch until they get the IT matchup they want often leaves him covering someone that can take advantage of his size too. The decrease in the projected salary cap will likely put even more pressure on Ainge to move him this offseason.

Finally, I think there is an added effect of having three players on the court smaller than most any competitive high school team. I think teams just lick their chops at always having the option to shoot over their defender and have a real additional advantage seeing the court.
 

Fishy1

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Its definitely a matchup game but I can't think of any team we might face in the playoffs (maybe the Bulls?) where those three aren't at a huge disadvantage. IT4, AB and Smart all play with astonishing heart, which I admire greatly, but they get exploited defensively and only IT has a reliable offensive game beyond hoping the 3s fall.

Smart is improving as a distributor but is an epic bricklayer and attacks the rim like a rhino on roller skates. That said, I do still want him on the floor at the end of games along with IT. AB is the one I just can't figure out. He is clearly a great SG/PG defender and can make the outside shot, but the obvious plan teams have to just switch until they get the IT matchup they want often leaves him covering someone that can take advantage of his size too. The decrease in the projected salary cap will likely put even more pressure on Ainge to move him this offseason.

Finally, I think there is an added effect of having three players on the court smaller than most any competitive high school team. I think teams just lick their chops at always having the option to shoot over their defender and have a real additional advantage seeing the court.
It's a real problem for this Celtics team. IT, AB and even Crowder are all undersized, and it's something people don't talk about enough. When this team isn't ballhawking, it's really hard for them to keep up defensively with teams with bigger shooting guards and close out effectively. It's why the Celtics have so much trouble with Toronto.
 

Eddie Jurak

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It's a real problem for this Celtics team. IT, AB and even Crowder are all undersized, and it's something people don't talk about enough. When this team isn't ballhawking, it's really hard for them to keep up defensively with teams with bigger shooting guards and close out effectively. It's why the Celtics have so much trouble with Toronto.
Crowder's not undersized.
 

Fishy1

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Crowder's not undersized.
I know what you mean -- there are plenty of SFs at 6'6. But Crowder is also more groundbound than a lot of SFs, and nearly all of the best forwards in the NBA are bigger than Crowder. Besides Paul George, and Giannis (who are all exceptionally tall for SFs), Carroll, Butler, and Porter all have inches on Crowder. Crowder is an exceptional defender because he does all the right things and works really hard. In the end those things matter way more in contesting jumpers than how big you are -- but it doesn't hurt to be large, either, of course.
 

Eddie Jurak

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He is tough and physical for sure, but at 6'6" 235 Crowder is always shorter and usually also smaller than the PFs he matches up against with IT4, AB, Smart on the court.
The problem with the Crowder/IT/AB/Smart lineup is not that Crowder is too short.
 

sezwho

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The problem with the Crowder/IT/AB/Smart lineup is not that Crowder is too short.
Didn't say it was, merely responding to an claim that he wasn't undersized, which he is against the average 3 and definitely against PFs.

That said, I do think its possible there is an added offensive advantage to having a height advantage at every position, but wouldn't know how to quantify.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Crowder's not undersized.
Crowder is tremendously undersized from both height and wingspan when he's going up against nearly all playoff 3's. This is one position that needs upgrading before we are serious contenders as we lose this matchup most every night against the good teams sometimes in a lopsided fashion. Crowder has measured 6-6 1/2 with a 6-9 wingspan compared to other playoff 3's you'll see where this is an issue which doesn't even account for the athletic advantages that most of them also possess over him.

LeBron 6-8 and 7-0
Durant 6-9 and 7-5
George 6-8 1/2 and 6-11
Porter 6-8 and 7-1
Carroll 6-9 and 6-10
Antetokounmpo 6-11 and 7-3
Leonard 6-8 and 7-3
Ariza 6-8 and 7-2
Mbah A Moute 6-8 and 7-2
Roberson 6-7 and 6-11

Even most all of the lottery teams have a height/wingspan advantage at the 3.
 

the moops

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HRB, you sure do love a good wingspan post :)

There is no doubt that Crowder is giving up height and length to most of these guys, but he is also able to out muscle most of these dudes with their skinny lomg ass arms
 

sezwho

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Crowder is tremendously undersized from both height and wingspan when he's going up against nearly all playoff 3's. This is one position that needs upgrading before we are serious contenders as we lose this matchup most every night against the good teams sometimes in a lopsided fashion.
I love a good wingspan post too so thanks for capturing that info in one place.

That said, I'm not sure I buy the bolded above. Clearly we would lose the matchup against Greek Freak, Durant, George, Lebron and Leonard but that is more a sign of who they are than who Crowder is. I'm not sure the other half of that list presents a matchup we lose most every night. I also think moops is right that the physical nature of his game more than compensates for giving up an inch or two.

Perhaps I have an irrational appreciation for his game, as I think he plays with contagious energy and is one of the few Celtics who can hold his own on both ends of the court. Bradley and Horford are the (only?) others.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I love a good wingspan post too so thanks for capturing that info in one place.

That said, I'm not sure I buy the bolded above. Clearly we would lose the matchup against Greek Freak, Durant, George, Lebron and Leonard but that is more a sign of who they are than who Crowder is. I'm not sure the other half of that list presents a matchup we lose most every night. I also think moops is right that the physical nature of his game more than compensates for giving up an inch or two.

Perhaps I have an irrational appreciation for his game, as I think he plays with contagious energy and is one of the few Celtics who can hold his own on both ends of the court. Bradley and Horford are the (only?) others.
I don't dislike Crowder at all I just prefer him in the role he had in Dallas scrapping on the second unit rather than facing disadvantages against half of his counterparts.

I like smart tough role players like Jae, Carroll, Ariza, Mbah A Moute, and Roberson......but there are reasons why each of their teams are in the 2nd or 3rd tier of contenders and one is because they are starting and playing big minutes for their teams.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Crowder is tremendously undersized from both height and wingspan when he's going up against nearly all playoff 3's. This is one position that needs upgrading before we are serious contenders as we lose this matchup most every night against the good teams sometimes in a lopsided fashion. Crowder has measured 6-6 1/2 with a 6-9 wingspan compared to other playoff 3's you'll see where this is an issue which doesn't even account for the athletic advantages that most of them also possess over him.

LeBron 6-8 and 7-0
Durant 6-9 and 7-5
George 6-8 1/2 and 6-11
Porter 6-8 and 7-1
Carroll 6-9 and 6-10
Antetokounmpo 6-11 and 7-3
Leonard 6-8 and 7-3
Ariza 6-8 and 7-2
Mbah A Moute 6-8 and 7-2
Roberson 6-7 and 6-11

Even most all of the lottery teams have a height/wingspan advantage at the 3.
Interesting mix of players there.