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Celtics Summer League

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by wade boggs chicken dinner, Jun 25, 2017.

  1. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    You need to factor in that running the triangle is dumb too. But, if you accept that part of it, then yes, the pick makes more sense.
     
  2. Tony C

    Tony C Dope Dope

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    10,529
    Yep. I have to say I bought into that, too, which isn't looking great at the moment -- but it's hard to get behind guys who quit on their team, coaching change or no. But he sure does look like he should have gone ahead of Fox to the Kings -- I think Fox is another guy being overrated because of his otherworldly speed. Impressive, yes, but the comps to Wall don't make sense given Wall's strength and outside shooting skill.

    I actually agree with this, too. For all the Knicks have done wrong, they shined on the international signing front, so I'd give them a break on Ntilikina until we actually see the guy play, at least.

    On Ball, I really like watching him on defense. I think Fox blowing by him in their 2 match-ups gave people a misleading impression of his D skills. HomeRunBaker already described those well -- with Ball's anticipation and court vision even without great on-the-ball D skills he can be super effective. HRB's "better Rubio" makes sense to me as a comp, too. Boy that shot sure does look ugly, though. But I don't think the form will much matter since the point isn't that he needs to get 28 footers up in traffic, rather he needs to make shots when defenses sag. So he'll have time to get his shot up, whatever his form, but he does have to sink them unlike some of those bricks he fired up last night. His track record indicates that'll happen.

    I hate to say it but the Magic comp works for me, too. Remember Magic had even less of an outside shot than Ball coming into the league and at his size could always be blown by if matched up against a quick guard. Ball's shot is better but more importantly the passing skills and otherworldly court presence do make them somewhat similar to me.
     
  3. chilidawg

    chilidawg Member SoSH Member

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    296
    The Magic comp makes sense for me too, passing skills, questionable shot, good team defense, shaky on ball defense. As a player type, not as a potential outcome, obviously.
     
  4. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Projected BPMs for the Celtics guys based on summer league stats only. I've included everyone from the Celtics who got over 100 minutes, but this model is really fitted to project rookie year BPMs, and doesn't discount guys for repeating the league, so it probably overrates Nader, Jackson, and Jaylen:

    [​IMG]

    Zizic is one of five rookies with a positive BPM projected. Lonzo Ball leads all rookies in projected BPM by far (and has the best projection since 2008 overall). That's a great number on Tatum too. If he's close to an average player as a rookie, then that's well on his way to being a star.

    This is mostly a toy - overall out of sample R^2 with this model is about 0.2, which is better than random, but is not especially strong. Most of the top performers in past years did go on to have strong rookie seasons however.
     
  5. Kid T

    Kid T Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    685

    I thought I read somewhere that teams were concerned about his height. I guess all things being equal, they preferred a 6' 4"-6' 6" guard (Fultz/Ball/Fox) to one that is only 6' 2" as Smith is. Watching his summer league highlights, Smith doesn't seem bothered in the least by it.
     
  6. nighthob

    nighthob lurker

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    It wasn't his height, it was his length. If he were 6'2" with a decent wingspan and standing reach no one would have cared, but his wingspan was 6'3" or so if I'm remembering aright.
     
  7. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    Interesting, thanks for posting. Curious to know who the other three positive projected BPM rookies are?

    Also, do you have the numbers for any of the other lottery picks? TIA.
     
  8. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    11,051
    You are correct. DSJ 6'2", 6'3" with a 6'3" wingspan. A few profiles mentioned that was a concern.
     
  9. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Dennis Smith Jr., Jonah Bolden, and Brandon Austin are the others with positive projected BPMs. Obviously Bolden and Austin are sort of head scratchers - it's still just summer league stats, not that much you can do with them.

    The other lottery picks are mostly at -1.5 to -3. I'll post full numbers once I have time to tweak this more.
     
  10. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    2,864
    Bolden certainly had his supporters among the people who watch a lot of international ball as a guy who could end up outperforming his draft slot.

    Has anyone run the numbers to see to what extent age-adjusted summer league BPM is predictive?
     
  11. finnVT

    finnVT Member SoSH Member

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    1,566
    Austin is the head scratcher, as his summer league numbers are downright mediocre. 36% shooting, including 17% from 3, with no stats that stand out. And he's 23yo.
     
  12. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    Thanks. DSJ makes sense and from what I saw, Bolden was a net positive to PHI.

    But I'm confused about Brandon Austin. According to NBA.com, his SL stats were:

    4 games / 18.8 mpg / 7.8 ppg / 11-35 = 31.4 / 2.3 rpg / 2.5 asp / 1.30 spg / 0.30 blocks per game.

    What is it about these stats that give him such a good projections? I couldn't find his 3P% but I can't imagine that it could be that great seeing how he shot 31.4% overall.

    BTW, Brandon Austin is an interesting story since he (i) graduated from a Philly charter school and (ii) was kicked off both Providence and Oregon basketball teams for allegations of sexual assault. Plus, the NBA and the Player's Association went to arbitration to determine whether the NBA could discipline Austin after he signed a NBA contact for conduct that occurred prior to the signing. Arbitrator said no - but NBA could prevent him from signing a contract.
     
  13. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    2/8, .250. The website sucks as anything more than a source for links to other websites but they record pretty much every game. http://basketball.realgm.com/player/Brandon-Austin/Summary/57004
     
  14. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I'm glad you guys flagged this. I looked into it, and Brandon Austin's (along with a few other guys) data got shifted over a column in my import, and he got coded as having taken 60 three point attempts in 116 minutes. This serves as a huge boost to projected BPM due to spacing value. That's actually the number of total field goal attempts he took. Correcting for that, he grades strongly negatively.

    As an aside, 3PT% and 2PT% are not actually part of the regression. The samples are too small, and including them led to overfitting the regression when I tested it out of sample (i.e., they make the model better in a descriptive sense, but worse in a predictive way). That's part of why Lonzo grades so well - the worst part of his game so far (his shooting) isn't being held against him.
     
  15. benhogan

    benhogan self-effacing SoSH Member

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    Smith's defense at NC State was questionable. Much like Lonzo, he'll be tested vs. the West Coast PGs.
     
  16. southshoresoxfan

    southshoresoxfan Member SoSH Member

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    This is lazy. Smith has the athleticism to play D. He reminds me of Russ where it will just be an effort / consistency issue
     
  17. bowiac

    bowiac I've been living a lie. Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Westbrook has 4.5 inches on Smith in terms of wingspan. That's a huge difference defensively.
     
  18. benhogan

    benhogan self-effacing SoSH Member

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    Southshore, did you watch Smith play this past season in the ACC? Blaming his coach's situation is weak sauce, he was a 1 and done the day he signed his letter of intent and he knew his game was under the NBA scouts microscope every night. Maybe he wasn't fully recovered from his knee injury (or didn't want to risk going full throttle in college?). Or maybe, he is a terrible defender? It was discussed by many during the pre-draft.

    The Summer League has Cuban and many observers incredibly excited about the "next Derrick Rose but better". Projecting using five games against D-league competition and comparing him to Russell Westbrook is also a bit overzealous. Maybe I'm biased because I can't erase the memory of John Gillon hanging 43 points on Smith Or Donovan Mitchell putting up 28pts and holding DSJ to 8 pts a few months ago. I can see how a few teams may have had questions about drafting him 6, 7 or 8 - he really didn't slip that far at #9.

    He's one of the few bright spots for a rebuilding Mavs team, I'd expect Cuban (who needs to sell seats) and the media (who need ratings) to really build this kid up. But I want to see how he reacts to playing Paul, Westbrook and Curry on a nightly basis.


    ***Southshore, you were right, I was being lazy. Apologies. I had not read the previous page and had just saw Maufman's comment. I ended up just regurgitating the DSJ meme.***
     
    #768 benhogan, Jul 15, 2017 at 10:29 AM
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2017 at 11:42 AM
  19. JCizzle

    JCizzle Member SoSH Member

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    4,173
    So like, everyone is out tonight. Semi vs all.

     
  20. Lazy vs Crazy

    Lazy vs Crazy Member SoSH Member

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    It sounds like they really want to be done with summer league and are trying not to win.

    Joke post: They shouldn't have gotten rid of Lacerte, the injuries are already starting to build up.
     
  21. mikeot

    mikeot Member SoSH Member

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    3,612
    So no more 7-11, not even if they make the finals?
     
  22. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Goodbye C's Summer League Team. We hardly knew ye. No, I mean it, we hardly knew most of these guys...
     
  23. benhogan

    benhogan self-effacing SoSH Member

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    Magic, Pelinka and Walton have been showing up every night for Summer League. Credit to the Lakers for making this 'their' event, they probably have sold a few extra seats this season with their play. I still think they are a lottery team, but they have definitely put their best 'marketing' foot forward.
     
  24. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    There has to be some Warren LeGarie influence as well with him being the front office mover and shaker much like William Wesley was back in his heyday. Every night the Lakers are playing it is LeGarie's summer league that is packed (@$35 a head to start). As you say, marketing Ball by having so many fans travel the 2 hours to Vegas is a major step for this organization. The kid is just special.

    Off topic - I remember an infamous LeGarie story a few years ago of how he much he controls front office movement in this league when the Utah Jazz were interviewing for their head coaching position and someone recognized that all 3 candidates were LeGarie clients........then someone pointed out that the Jazz GM was also a LeGarie client. It's all about who you're in with.
     
  25. benhogan

    benhogan self-effacing SoSH Member

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    Here is a nice piece on LeGarie and the Vegas Summer League history. Sounds like he reps most of the NBA coaching circuit.

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...rie-made-sin-city-nbas-summer-league-hot-spot

    FYI: Boston to NYC is a shorter drive than LA to Vegas. It's at least 4 hours, although the announcer's make it sound like it's down the road a few miles...
     
    #775 benhogan, Jul 16, 2017 at 11:37 PM
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2017 at 11:48 PM
  26. Devizier

    Devizier Member SoSH Member

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    In practice that isn't true; the Boston-NYC drive involves a lot of traffic and people drive 80+ MPH from LA to Vegas.
     
  27. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Not to mention that New Englanders in general bitch about driving from Newton to Natick. In the south and the west a 2-hour drive without traffic is a pretty standard weekend jaunt.
     
  28. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

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    Unless you leave at 4 am from the east side or are on a motorcycle, it's always at least a 4-hour drive to Vegas. The 15 is two lanes, and the truck speed limit is 55. Leave from LA on Friday afternoon, or drive back at any time on Sunday, and you're lucky if you make it in under six hours.
     
  29. Skiponzo

    Skiponzo Member SoSH Member

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    I just drove from Vegas to SD in 5.5 hours yesterday. You've gotta leave LV by 0900 on a Sunday at the latest. Normally I can do it in 4.5 but we stopped to see the Aliens in Baker, lunch in Barstow and water/pee breaks along the way....yes kids were in tow this time. :)
     
  30. benhogan

    benhogan self-effacing SoSH Member

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    NBA TV showing the Lakers march to the Summer League Finals. Re-playing back to back to back playoff games - Cavs, Brooklyn, and Dallas.

    It's going to be enjoyable watching Laker Nation do a full face plant this year and Danny making their selection next June.
     
  31. Imbricus

    Imbricus Member SoSH Member

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    Jayson Tatum selected to the NBA All-Summer League ... second team.
    Eh.

    Also, Donovan Mitchell somehow got overlooked.
     
  32. DannyDarwinism

    DannyDarwinism Member SoSH Member

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    Kuzma has looked good, he was knocking down threes and is smooth and athletic for his size. Looks like he'll really benefit from running with Lonzo.
     
  33. djbayko

    djbayko Member SoSH Member

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    Stocking up on Alien Fresh beef jerky on Sunday is definitely a great Vegas hangover ritual. So good.
     
  34. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Keep an eye on Chieck Diallo making a mini-leap this season. He has really improved both physically and in his understanding of the game......this is obviously supposed to take place with raw 18/19 year olds but it seems to be unfolding for Diallo.
     
  35. maufman

    maufman Dope Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

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    Josh Jackson made first team??

    I didn't get to see much of him, but what I read suggested he had been disappointing aside from the occasional flash of plus-plus athleticism. (Which is how I'd describe Jaylen's SL performance last year, so Jackson might be just fine.)
     
  36. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Jackson: 17.4 points, 9.2 boards, shot 42.4% in 35 minutes/game
    Tatum: 17.7 points, 8.0 boards, shot 42.2% in 32 minutes/game

    About even
     
  37. Steve Dillard

    Steve Dillard wishes drew noticed him instead of sweet & sour SoSH Member

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    From ESPN's wrap
    Seems at odds with everything else that we saw and the experts' stories.
     
    #787 Steve Dillard, Jul 18, 2017 at 12:25 PM
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2017 at 12:45 PM
  38. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    This only counts the Las Vegas version of the summer league, that's what MGM sponsors.

    Mitchell only played two games there. Surprised Tatum even made it all with three games played.
     
  39. Cellar-Door

    Cellar-Door Member SoSH Member

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    Some people thought he took a lot of Iso 2s in the Rudy Gay tradition, and wonder how that translates to the NBA
     
  40. nighthob

    nighthob lurker

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    Yes, those iso mid range jumpers look pretty, but unless you're shooting them at a 60% clip they're pretty inefficient. On the bright side that pretty footwork shows that he can create space for his jumper off the dribble, and once he extends his range another 4'-6' he's going to be lethal. But it's best to temper expectations for 2018 while he works on his body and on his range.
     
  41. tbrown_01923

    tbrown_01923 Member SoSH Member

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    This is exactly what I am excited about. In summer league he was able to get the separation to get his jumper off regardless of where he was on the floor. His jumper looks effortless and I suspect it is a matter of repetition before he extends his range out. The mark I am curios about will be uncontested catch and shoot threes, and whether he will be able to hit them at a serviceable rate. I imagine in garbage time minutes (i think this C's team wins in more pronounced fashion) he will be the best scoring options on the floor and perhaps force things - so I don't have super high hopes for his overall percentage this year. But it is the percentage in "impact" minutes I wish we could effectively track.
     
  42. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    It took Jabari Parker until his 3rd season before he started knocking down NBA 3's. Hopefully Tatum improves quicker than that but that seems like a decent benchmark for Tatum.
     
  43. Kliq

    Kliq Member SoSH Member

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    I think Parker is a fair comp, hopefully minus the injuries and Parker was having kind of a break-out season for Milwaukee before going down. I also think both guys received criticism for not being crazy elite athletes but will turn out to be plenty athletic enough to hang in the NBA.
     
  44. Fishy1

    Fishy1 Member SoSH Member

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    Yes: though Tatum was a better FT shooter by about 10% in college.
     
  45. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Same college too so makes the comparison even more apt.
     
  46. tbrown_01923

    tbrown_01923 Member SoSH Member

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    Jabari Parker
    14/15 in 29 MPG got off .6 3PA (25%), and
    15/16 in 31 MPG got off .5 3PA (25%).

    Jaylen Brown
    in 17 MPG got off 1.6 3PA (34%).

    Wouldn't we think that Tatum gets closer to 1.6 3PA (same offense as Jaylen theory) and hopefully is able to come up the curve faster than Jabari.
     
  47. nighthob

    nighthob lurker

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    One big difference between them is that Parker's knee problems started in high school and he gained a lot of weight after the first knee injury, so he arrived at Duke in less than optimal condition.

    Tatum isn't a hyper athlete, but unlike Parker, he just needs to fill out properly. I think he's actually closer to HeyJudeward as a prospect (in that Hayward also needed to remake his body to gain strength after arriving in the NBA).
     
  48. maufman

    maufman Dope Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

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    Hield's upside is limited due to his age, but he has already demonstrated that he is a respectable NBA player. If he didn't shine in Summer League, it's likely because he was mailing it in and/or working on things outside his comfort zone.

    I'm more interested in the take on Bender. Everyone knew he was raw, so it was no surprise that he played little as a rookie, and wasn't impressive when he did play. That's precisely the sort of player I'd be eager to assess in Summer League -- has he made progress, or is he on his way to becoming a bust? I didn't watch the Suns, so I can't say if Bender looked better than his numbers (SSS shooting numbers are meaningless), but the stats certainly aren't what Suns fans were hoping to see.
     
  49. lovegtm

    lovegtm lurker

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    Exactly, I think that iso jumper worries are usually overstated for most players. If a guy has a good stroke, he can almost always extend them out a few feet.

    The concern comes when either a player, coach, or both are too stubborn/proud to extend the range, eg DeMar DeRozan or Flip Saunders. I'm not worried at all about Tatum or Stevens in this regard.
     

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