Cheesesteaks vs. Chowdah Part I - The Sixers/Celtics Series Thread

[BigSoxFan]

Figured it would be good to have a thread dedicated to the series since this figures to be a fun one and we’ll probably get more of them in the coming years.

Serious discussions about the series, games, injuries and good-natured trashtalking are all welcome here.

Super Bowl 52 references are NOT welcome because I’m still a little delicate flower and they make me sad.

 

[terrynever]

Brett Brown's game plan:

http://www.philly.com/philly/columnists/bob_ford/sixers-brett-brown-76ers-celtics-nba-playoffs-gameplan-matchup-20180429.html

 

[Red Averages]

grade 1 hamstring strain for Jaylen. Any thoughts on how that will impact him? He’s trying to play Monday, but I wonder if the extra few days rest before Game 2 on Thursday would make a big difference? http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23350629/2018-nba-playoffs-jaylen-brown-hobbled-sore-hamstring-boston-celtics-game-7-win

Any thought on defending Embiid?

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

I think we're going to see a lot of Aron Baynes with a lot of Horford on Simmons. He did a pretty good job on Embiid during the regular season, IIRC.

 

[lovegtm]

grade 1 hamstring strain for Jaylen. Any thoughts on how that will impact him? He’s trying to play Monday, but I wonder if the extra few days rest before Game 2 on Thursday would make a big difference? http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23350629/2018-nba-playoffs-jaylen-brown-hobbled-sore-hamstring-boston-celtics-game-7-win

Duncan/Leroux made a good point on their show that this summer is an incredibly important one for Jaylen, since he's so well-positioned to make a big leap if he can put in focused work. Spending the summer rehabbing would be awful for that, and I'm guessing the team is aware of this, and will be conservative.

If he's right on the line and it's a mild strain, an extra couple days of rest would make a big difference (couple rounds of massage rather than one, etc), and I'm going to predict that we won't see him until Game 2 or 3.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Here’s the full series schedule for Celtics vs. 76ers:
Game 1: 76ers at Celtics, Monday, April 30 at 8 p.m. ET
Game 2: 76ers at Celtics, Thursday, May 3 at 8:30 p.m. ET
Game 3: Celtics at 76ers, Saturday, May 5 at TBD
Game 4: Celtics at 76ers, Monday, May 7 at TBD
Game 5 (if necessary): 76ers at Celtics, Wednesday, May 9 at TBD
Game 6 (if necessary): Celtics at 76ers, Friday, May 11 at TBD
Game 7 (if necessary): 76ers at Celtics, Sunday, May 13 at TBD

 

[Ale Xander]

I think we're going to see a lot of Aron Baynes with a lot of Horford on Simmons. He did a pretty good job on Embiid during the regular season, IIRC.

I'm expecting a lot of Semi and Morris, maybe Tatum, on Simmons, not Horford. Horford on Embiid.

Rozier is going to have to put up big games.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

grade 1 hamstring strain for Jaylen. Any thoughts on how that will impact him? He’s trying to play Monday, but I wonder if the extra few days rest before Game 2 on Thursday would make a big difference? http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23350629/2018-nba-playoffs-jaylen-brown-hobbled-sore-hamstring-boston-celtics-game-7-win

Unless it is a really insignificant injury I'd expect the Celtics to hold him out of game 1. 4 days rest instead of 1.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I'm expecting a lot of Semi and Morris, maybe Tatum, on Simmons, not Horford. Horford on Embiid.

Rozier is going to have to put up big games.

Speaking of Rozier, who guards him on Philly? Their starting lineup last game was:

Embiid
Saric
Covington
Redick
Simmons

I figure that Covington would be glued to Tatum so that leaves Redick or Simmons, which would appear to be a matchup that we’d be able to exploit.

 

[Ale Xander]

Speaking of Rozier, who guards him on Philly? Their starting lineup last game was:

Embiid
Saric
Covington
Redick
Simmons

I figure that Covington would be glued to Tatum so that leaves Redick or Simmons, which would appear to be a matchup that we’d be able to exploit.

Seems like Redick. We have to exploit that. (Whether it's Rozier or Smart or Brown that he's guarding)

 

[LondonSox]

Covington will be on Rozier I'd expect and Simmons on Tatum or brown.
Hard to say, could be they'll keep Simmons and cov on brown and Tatum and have JJ on Rozier. Saric may take horford.

It's going to be important for Baynes to stay out of foul trouble because without Theis I don't know who else can handle him.

Horford probably can in some situations but embiid is very much a problem down low for him I think.

The sixers haven't actually played very well since game 1 and embiid was very rusty. The rest can't have hurt him get up to speed more.

The key is the pace, if the sixers can keep it up and get in transition the Celtics will struggle to score enough.

I think home court is at least worth on game, esp given how much better the role players are at home. The sixers have more offensive talent and depth.

I think it's sixers in 5 or 6 and it's gonna the start of a real rivalry

 

[the moops]

I think it's sixers in 5 or 6

Least surprising prediction ever!

 

[LondonSox]

It's also the projection of most models fwiw.

 

[Red Averages]

Series line on Bovada is Phil -370 / Bos +285, so yeah Philly is a pretty big favorite. Should be a good series though, especially if JB is healthy.

 

[heavyde050]

Sixers fans should enjoy this one. They are a favorite against a severely depleted Celtics team.
Should be a fun series; next year will be even better.

 

[terrynever]

It's also the projection of most models fwiw.

Let's see how the 76ers' composure holds up in the road games. They did well in Miami but Miami is not Boston. The most talented team does not always win. That was true in Wilt's day, and until I see Philly break through in Boston, I will call this a 7-game series.

 

[LondonSox]

Honestly I see it as a zero upside (for the sixers) series.
If they win you guys will be, we are hurt and healthy it's a different series (true)
If they lose you guys will be insufferable lol.

I think the sixers have the better depth and top end talent but Stephens is good and Brett Brown is still a bit unknown and home court matters. I think everyone is a bit too hyped on the sixers, who weren't that great vs Miami.

 

[bankshot1]

I think one of the fascinating thing about this series is there is so much young talent on the floor, it will be really interesting to see how the kids (on both sides) respond to the increasing big-game pressure.

I think Al and Smart are going to have to play huge and smart to offset the depleted Celts.

G2H, I'd go with 76ers in 6, and I hate the 76ers, but if they don't win in 6, they're done.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

That line’s a little bit heavier on Philly than I expected, but not by much. Jaylen’s unsurprisingly doubtful for game one, but hopefully good to go Thursday. I’d never write this team, and this coach off completely, but Philly is playing too well, for me to be too optimistic. There’s always the hope that Redick, Cov, Belinelli and Ilysova go cold, but otherwise they’re too big and talented. Theis’s absence looms disproportionately large in this matchup. And Brett Brown is no Joe Prunty.

It does feel a bit like playing with house money as a Celtics fan. Get the Jays as much playoff basketball experience as they can, then come back next year with Hayward and Kyrie fucking Irving.

 

[mikeot]

Sixers fans should enjoy this one. They are a favorite against a severely depleted Celtics team.
Should be a fun series; next year will be even better.

 

[heavyde050]

Honestly I see it as a zero upside (for the sixers) series.
If they win you guys will be, we are hurt and healthy it's a different series (true)
If they lose you guys will be insufferable lol.

I think the sixers have the better depth and top end talent but Stephens is good and Brett Brown is still a bit unknown and home court matters. I think everyone is a bit too hyped on the sixers, who weren't that great vs Miami.

Better depth and healthy top end talent.
Just enjoy the series.
I think it goes six or seven games. It would surprise me if the Sixers won in 6 or the Celts pull off the upset in 7.

 

[LondonSox]

Better depth and healthy top end talent.
Just enjoy the series.
I think it goes six or seven games. It would surprise me if the Sixers won in 6 or the Celts pull off the upset in 7.

Yeah that is what I meant. Clearly I'm talking about this series.

 

[heavyde050]

Yeah that is what I meant. Clearly I'm talking about this series.

I know. Should be a good series.
Great time for the Sixers to be ahead of schedule with the East being so open.
Would be good experience for the young team to beat the C’s and make to the ECF.

 

[LondonSox]

I would say it's a very good start to playoff competition for the sixers.
A lacking talent but really tough, deep, defensive and physical team I round one. An injured but tough Celtics team with home court and a great coach.
So good for the kids (honestly for both team too)

 

[radsoxfan]

Muscle tears are typically graded 1, 2 or 3 in a general sense, but in reality there are more subtle variations of injury than that. You could put it on a 1-10 scale if you wanted. Each grade has a mild, moderate, and severe subset if the interpreter is very experienced. The location of the tear also plays a role in return to play time.

Without seeing the images, I’d say on average grade 1 could keep someone out maybe 2 weeks. But in actuality, it could be a few days and it could be 3-4 weeks.

Obviously hoping for a mild grade 1, and only missing a game or 2. Any more than that and hard to imagine this team has much of a chance.

 

[LondonSox]

The schedule for this series is utter dogshit.
A long break after game 1 (good for brown)
A weeknight 6pm game and then no rest with the travel if the series goes long.

Game 1: 76ers at Celtics, Monday, April 30 at 8 p.m.
Game 2: 76ers at Celtics, Thursday, May 3 at 8:30 p.m.
Game 3: Celtics at 76ers, Saturday, May 5 at 5 p.m.
Game 4: Celtics at 76ers, Monday, May 7 at 6 p.m.
Game 5 (if necessary): 76ers at Celtics, Wednesday, May 9 at TBD
Game 6 (if necessary): Celtics at 76ers, Friday, May 11 at TBD
Game 7 (if necessary): 76ers at Celtics, Sunday, May 13 at TBD

 

[shawnrbu]

Game 2 is on Thursday instead of Wednesday because the Bruins are at home on Wednesday.

 

[BaseballJones]

Honestly I see it as a zero upside (for the sixers) series.
If they win you guys will be, we are hurt and healthy it's a different series (true)
If they lose you guys will be insufferable lol.

I think the sixers have the better depth and top end talent but Stephens is good and Brett Brown is still a bit unknown and home court matters. I think everyone is a bit too hyped on the sixers, who weren't that great vs Miami.

Zero upside for Philly? If they win, who cares what people say about Bostkn's injuries. The Sixers would be in the Eastern finals with a shot at going to the NBA finals. That's HUGE upside.

 

[tims4wins]

Zero upside for Philly? If they win, who cares what people say about Bostkn's injuries. The Sixers would be in the Eastern finals with a shot at going to the NBA finals. That's HUGE upside.

Right it is kind of like the 2002 OB Celts that lost to the Nets in the conference finals. It doesn’t matter who you play or how you get there that is huge. Of course Celts fans would (and should) feel confident about a rematch that includes Hayworth and Kyrie but Sixers fans would (and should) LOL Boo Hoo to that.

 

[johnmd20]

The schedule for this series is utter dogshit.
A long break after game 1 (good for brown)
A weeknight 6pm game and then no rest with the travel if the series goes long.

Game 1: 76ers at Celtics, Monday, April 30 at 8 p.m.
Game 2: 76ers at Celtics, Thursday, May 3 at 8:30 p.m.
Game 3: Celtics at 76ers, Saturday, May 5 at 5 p.m.
Game 4: Celtics at 76ers, Monday, May 7 at 6 p.m.
Game 5 (if necessary): 76ers at Celtics, Wednesday, May 9 at TBD
Game 6 (if necessary): Celtics at 76ers, Friday, May 11 at TBD
Game 7 (if necessary): 76ers at Celtics, Sunday, May 13 at TBD

A long break? Two days. You are just looking for things to complain about if you think this schedule isn't anything but very normal for the NBA playoffs.

 

[tims4wins]

A long break? Two days. You are just looking for things to complain about if you think this schedule isn't anything but very normal for the NBA playoffs.

It is every other day for two cities pretty close (what is it a 40 minute flight?) with the one 3 day break because of a Broons home game. It’s as close to ideal as possible. The 6pm game 4 start is weird I admit but I don’t see how that has any effect whatsoever on the teams as opposed to a 7 or 8 pm start.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Honestly I see it as a zero upside (for the sixers) series.
If they win you guys will be, we are hurt and healthy it's a different series (true)
If they lose you guys will be insufferable lol.

I think the sixers have the better depth and top end talent but Stephens is good and Brett Brown is still a bit unknown and home court matters. I think everyone is a bit too hyped on the sixers, who weren't that great vs Miami.

Win or lose we'll be insufferable - you of all people should know that.

I'm not optimistic about Boston's chances, but we shall see...

 

[johnmd20]

It is every other day for two cities pretty close (what is it a 40 minute flight?) with the one 3 day break because of a Broons home game. It’s as close to ideal as possible. The 6pm game 4 start is weird I admit but I don’t see how that has any effect whatsoever on the teams as opposed to a 7 or 8 pm start.

And it's a two day break, not three. That happens all the time. Just not sure how one could be aggrieved by that schedule. Philly gets to play Boston, potentially without their three best players. THAT'S JUST FUCKING BULLSHIT AND FUCK IT ALL, IT'S JUST NOT FAIR.

 

[LondonSox]

It's a weird schedule is all, Jesus Christ. The longest break is after the first game and the early (3 pm west coast) start time is annoying.

It's not a big deal and the same for all, it's just odd.

I see I said utter dogshit which is a bit much. It's unusual ok? Bit odd.

Can we fight over remotely interesting things?

 

[tims4wins]

What is odd about it? Or is it just the 6pm start time on a Monday?

The Celts-Bucks series also had 1 day between every single game except between 2 and 3 when there was a 2 day break. So the full 7 games spanned the exact same number of days.

 

[johnmd20]

It's a weird schedule is all, Jesus Christ. The longest break is after the first game and the early (3 pm west coast) start time is annoying.

It's not a big deal and the same for all, it's just odd.

I see I said utter dogshit which is a bit much. It's unusual ok? Bit odd.

Can we fight over remotely interesting things?

Sure. But it's not unusual. A 3pm west coast time is a non event when every major sporting championship event(non NFL division) ends after midnight on the east coast. And these are 2 east coast teams. The rest of the schedule is normal and the 6pm isn't some crazy thing, it's an hour ahead of a normal start time.

 

[InstaFace]

Can we fight over remotely interesting things?

Before the series even starts? I'm not even sure how.

Let's instead hope we can kill time watching Embiid troll Rihanna some more.

 

[LondonSox]

Lol yeah cool

 

[snowmanny]

Zero upside for Philly? If they win, who cares what people say about Bostkn's injuries. The Sixers would be in the Eastern finals with a shot at going to the NBA finals. That's HUGE upside.

I think he means zero upside from a "Sixers fan arguing on a Celtics-centric board"-centric perspective. The Sixers are clearly the favorite; I imagine every pundit on every show and every website will be picking Philly (Ed: in 5 or 6) and they should. The Celtics will have to be pretty hot-shooting and pretty tough and pretty smart in four games - and their opponents the opposite of all that -to pull this off. And if the 76'ers win I'll be pretty pissed off but not surprised.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Smart on Embiid, checkmate.

 

[terrynever]

Home court advantage. Same as the Milwaukee series. It means a lot, especially when an inexperienced playoff team like Philly is coming into a place like Boston.
Celtics fans understand this. Look at the title of your Game 7 thread for the Bucks finale. Let's get loud.
A guy like LeBron can tune it out. But most mortals are impacted by the noise level. Is Ben Simmons one of those special guys? He showed a great level of composure against Miami's thug tactics. Stevens will show Simmons a variety of defensive looks. If Boston can force 20 turnovers in home games, that's good enough to win, good enough to rattle Philly, good enough to create that sustained noise that Celtics fans are known for.
This is said from the perspective of a Philly fan who has been on the losing side against Boston way too many times. As long as Boston holds home court advantage, the Celtics are the favorites.

 

[DJnVa]

I expect Philly will probably win the series. Just too many guys hurt in Boston.

But it should be fascinating to see what Stevens comes up with, and CLE/TOR should be paying close attention to this series.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Home court advantage. Same as the Milwaukee series. It means a lot, especially when an inexperienced playoff team like Philly is coming into a place like Boston.
Celtics fans understand this. Look at the title of your Game 7 thread for the Bucks finale. Let's get loud.
A guy like LeBron can tune it out. But most mortals are impacted by the noise level. Is Ben Simmons one of those special guys? He showed a great level of composure against Miami's thug tactics. Stevens will show Simmons a variety of defensive looks. If Boston can force 20 turnovers in home games, that's good enough to win, good enough to rattle Philly, good enough to create that sustained noise that Celtics fans are known for.
This is said from the perspective of a Philly fan who has been on the losing side against Boston way too many times. As long as Boston holds home court advantage, the Celtics are the favorites.

Ah then for about another 26 hours or so.

No JB tomorrow night. Smart hasn't made a field goal outside of about eight feet with his wraps. The offense is in deep shit, and the defense will suffer bigtime without one of its better players and his thirty minutes. And Al won't have the bully-Thon-Maker option in his toolbox.

I think that it will go six or seven games, but I don't see a plausible scenario for a Celtics series win. Not if Brown is out or limited to being unBrownlike.

 

[terrynever]

It's hard to get an edge on you guys. I'm trying to sell the Celtics as favorites and you're not buying!

 

[amarshal2]

I think people were overrating the Sixers and underrating the Celtics based on round 1 before the Brown injury. I would’ve picked Celtics in 7, so obviously I thought it was close. Post injury it’s hard to see how the Celtics win if it costs them a game. No matter what they need a group of inconsistent offensive players to collectively have a bunch of good games. Now that pool is missing perhaps its best offensive player.

My Cavs buddy has a theory that LeBron won’t go to Philly if they make the finals because he doesn’t want to pull a Durant. I’m not sure I buy it but it’s the only silver lining I’ve got.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I think that it will go six or seven games, but I don't see a plausible scenario for a Celtics series win. Not if Brown is out or limited to being unBrownlike.

If the series goes 6 or 7, then the Celtics will be playing well enough to win the series. The key is somehow, some way, forcing a Game 7. I think they are capable of holding serve at home but it certainly won’t be easy. They looked like absolute crap on the road this past series so I’m not confident at all in their ability to take one in Philly.

My keys to victory are as follows:

1. Big series from Horford/Tatum/Rozier. With Brown out and/or hobbled, these are our key guys, for better or worse. If one of them has a dud game, we’ll almost certainly lose. If two of them do, it’ll be blowout city.

2. The Marcii have to show up on offense. Morris is capable of giving us 20 on any given night and Smart needs to be in double digits on most nights.

3. Someone has to slow down Simmons. Plenty of guys will get a shot but someone is going to have to step up here.

4. Embiid has to be drawn out of the paint. Horford’s shooting should help here. If Embiid is able to patrol the basket, it’s going to be a real struggle.

5. Perimeter defense. Philly has multiple shooters who can burn you from downtown. If we let them get in a rhythm, this series won’t go past 5 games and could even be a sweep. Redick, Bellinelli, and Saric are really going to test our rotations. Sure hope we’re ready.

 

[BaseballJones]

Simmons is terrific and not many guys have been able to slow him down, obviously. So it's easier said than done. But the way you slow him down is by denying him entry into the paint. Make him shoot it from 15 feet and beyond, which he is very hesitant to do. Because he's so big and strong with such a good handle, you have to put a quick and strong person on him. I think Semi could work there, and possibly Smart (though he might not be big enough if Simmons heads to the block). Baynes and Horford get to take on Embiid.

The Celtics have the following (active) guys all capable of going for 20: Horford, Rozier, Tatum, Brown, and Morris. If Brown returns healthy, does Philly have enough defenders?

Home court is enormous. You all know the saying: Stars will be stars both home and away. But it's the role players that struggle on the road and shine at home. I can see this happening, and it's a very good thing that Boston has HCA. They're going to need it.

 

[InstaFace]

It's hard to get an edge on you guys. I'm trying to sell the Celtics as favorites and you're not buying!

We're literally playing this series without TWO ALL STARS.

There are fewer players in the all-star game than there are teams, so teams average fewer than 1 all-star all told. We had 3 of them on our roster, all of them max contracts; we now have 1. If you prefer 538, we had two top-30 players on the roster, both of whom are now on the bench in suits. Together they account for >42% of our team payroll.

With 1 all-star, 2 above-expectations lottery picks and some good coaching, we got by a very flawed team, in 7 games. It should boggle everyone's mind that we have gotten this far despite the top end of our roster going down in flames. And now we are likely down another key player, arguably our best remaining player (I'd say second best), for at least 1 game, possibly several. And we are playing against a team with no current injuries. A team who will arrive tomorrow on 6 days rest, having dispatched Miami in 5 games.

You have nothing to sell. You arrive empty-handed. You don't even have a "momentum" argument. These Celtics are the pluckiest of plucky underdogs, with a plucky overcoming-adversity story, a plucky young-guns-on-the-way-up story to rival even their opponents', and a plucky team-defense-and-energy approach. If the Celtics win it won't be a goddamn miracle but it will still be a surprise.

 

[TripleOT]

The two Marcuses will determine whether the Cs can hold the homecourt with Brown injured. Morris will have to score 20 ppg and Smart will have to score in the teens and make big plays in crunch time.

Cs probably will start AL, Baynes, Tatum, Smart, and Rozier; AL will play Simmons, with Baynes trying to deal with Embiid. Smart will have to deal with the bigger Covington, and Rozier will be running after Redick.

At the other end, Baynes will have to be accurate from mid-range, because he's going to get a lot of shots. When they sub in Morris for Baynes, Philly will have trouble dealing with the quicker Celtics, with AL pulling Embiid from protecting the rim.

 

[terrynever]

The two Marcuses will determine whether the Cs can hold the homecourt with Brown injured. Morris will have to score 20 ppg and Smart will have to score in the teens and make big plays in crunch time.

Cs probably will start AL, Baynes, Tatum, Smart, and Rozier; AL will play Simmons, with Baynes trying to deal with Embiid. Smart will have to deal with the bigger Covington, and Rozier will be running after Redick.

At the other end, Baynes will have to be accurate from mid-range, because he's going to get a lot of shots. When they sub in Morris for Baynes, Philly will have trouble dealing with the quicker Celtics, with AL pulling Embiid from protecting the rim.

Horford draining jumpers from the top of the key and beyond would be a big problem for Philly. Pulling Embiid off the defensive block is important, obviously.