Cousins signs 1-year deal with Warriors

Big John

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True. Not a locker room problem.
However, on court, in 48 games he still racked up 10 Technical Fouls, 2 Ejections and a Flagrant. He's no picnic. I think the thing that really scared teams off though is the injury. There's no track record of players coming back from this so why deal with it.
He has a temper that he can't control. In addition to all the technicals (in Sacramento and New Orleans) he has gone after beat writers and others. Maybe his frontal lobe is starting to develop, but maybe not.
 

bowiac

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For a piece I'm working on, I looked at every player I could find since 1992 who came back to the NBA after an achilles injury. I found 17 players. I then built a relatively simple projection for what their expected performance would be the next year, using a combination of age, minutes, and two years of BPM. As has been discussed, performance for players coming back from achilles injuries is generally pretty disastrous:

'



The results are worse for better players (presumably since they have further to fall), and worse for big men than for guards or wings. Players recover slightly in year 2 after the injury, but not dramatically. These results are slightly positively biased, as it's selected only for players who actually manage to make it back from injury.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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For a piece I'm working on, I looked at every player I could find since 1992 who came back to the NBA after an achilles injury. I found 17 players. I then built a relatively simple projection for what their expected performance would be the next year, using a combination of age, minutes, and two years of BPM. As has been discussed, performance for players coming back from achilles injuries is generally pretty disastrous:
Interesting, thanks for the post. From this article, you might want to add a couple of other guys: Jeff Taylor (Hornets) and Darrell Arthur. From way back, Bob Rule also suffered an Achilles injury and tried to come back.

Here's another article with some interesting names, although for a lot of them, the injury was career ending: http://thehoopdoctors.com/2013/08/top-15-nba-careers-ruined-by-achilles-injuries-all-time/#16

My foot aches just reading about these injuries.
 

Montana Fan

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For a piece I'm working on, I looked at every player I could find since 1992 who came back to the NBA after an achilles injury. I found 17 players. I then built a relatively simple projection for what their expected performance would be the next year, using a combination of age, minutes, and two years of BPM. As has been discussed, performance for players coming back from achilles injuries is generally pretty disastrous:

The results are worse for better players (presumably since they have further to fall), and worse for big men than for guards or wings. Players recover slightly in year 2 after the injury, but not dramatically. These results are slightly positively biased, as it's selected only for players who actually manage to make it back from injury.
Did HomeRunBaker put you on his payroll? PS - nice work.
 

joe dokes

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Interesting, thanks for the post. From this article, you might want to add a couple of other guys: Jeff Taylor (Hornets) and Darrell Arthur. From way back, Bob Rule also suffered an Achilles injury and tried to come back.

Here's another article with some interesting names, although for a lot of them, the injury was career ending: http://thehoopdoctors.com/2013/08/top-15-nba-careers-ruined-by-achilles-injuries-all-time/#16

My foot aches just reading about these injuries.

Great stuff. Calvin Natt is another. He wasn't a bigman, but he was a big man. I remember his because it was an opening night. (not sure if Natt is on the hoop doctors' list. It wont load for me).
 

mauf

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Cousins’ decision implicitly acknowledges that he’s not going to be valuable enough a year from now for Bird rights to matter. For an NBA player, that’s a surprising degree of self-awareness. (Or perhaps he defers completely to his agent on such matters.)

It’s a shame to see such a gifted player’s career derailed, at a time when he seemed to be coming into his own. I’m rooting for him to beat the odds.
 

Caspir

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Cousins’ decision implicitly acknowledges that he’s not going to be valuable enough a year from now for Bird rights to matter. For an NBA player, that’s a surprising degree of self-awareness. (Or perhaps he defers completely to his agent on such matters.)
He turned down 2/40 from New Orleans after the injury, so I'm not sure when you think he became so self aware. Seems like he and his agent misread his market and then decided to ring chase when the money dried up.
 

BigSoxFan

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He turned down 2/40 from New Orleans after the injury, so I'm not sure when you think he became so self aware. Seems like he and his agent misread his market and then decided to ring chase when the money dried up.
Yeah, turning down 2/40 after an Achilles injury was a horrendous decision. Would have represented 50% of his career earnings to-date. I don't know how you turn that down and then hope to get another decent contract in 2 years. Nobody was going to offer him a big contract this summer.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Great stuff. Calvin Natt is another. He wasn't a bigman, but he was a big man. I remember his because it was an opening night. (not sure if Natt is on the hoop doctors' list. It wont load for me).
Good call.

BTW, some guy posted an admittedly incomplete list of injuries from 1946-2014 here: www.apbr.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=4169. Would be amazing if someone kept track of injuries and basketball (and other sports) in a more methodological way.

Cousins’ decision implicitly acknowledges that he’s not going to be valuable enough a year from now for Bird rights to matter. For an NBA player, that’s a surprising degree of self-awareness. (Or perhaps he defers completely to his agent on such matters.)

It’s a shame to see such a gifted player’s career derailed, at a time when he seemed to be coming into his own. I’m rooting for him to beat the odds.
Why do you say this? Cousins apparently received no offers. He signed with the only team that would give him a contract - basically one of the few teams that would take a flier on him.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Hmm, Sabonis seems like a pretty good/hopeful comp in terms of being a huge man with a ridiculously advanced skillset for his size. He was reportedly never quite the same player after the Achilles injury, but still went on to put up 14 more seasons, in Europe and Portland, many of them dominant (4x Euroscar player of the year post-injury, e.g.)

Boogie has never been a high flyer or speed burner, relying more on crazy-good shooting, passing, length, strength, hands, guile, and toughness — things that tend to recover and age well. Here's hoping, anyway (and I say this as a hoops fan more than a Warriors fan, as I think a half-decent recovery next season will mean he's almost certainly moving on from GS, who won't be able to pay him more than $6.3M).
 
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PedroKsBambino

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Cousins’ decision implicitly acknowledges that he’s not going to be valuable enough a year from now for Bird rights to matter. For an NBA player, that’s a surprising degree of self-awareness. (Or perhaps he defers completely to his agent on such matters.)

It’s a shame to see such a gifted player’s career derailed, at a time when he seemed to be coming into his own. I’m rooting for him to beat the odds.
Logically, doesn't it show the opposite? He signed a contract which specifically prevents the team from having Bird rights next summer, which would seem to suggest (to any degree he has a view on next summer) he thinks he could have value and thus prefers to have max flexibility next summer. If he thought he wasn't going to have real value (the implicit scenario you suggest) then Bird rights shouldn't be a factor anyway.

It"s the team, not Cousins, who had to value Bird rights very little to end up with his current agreement seems to me. GS likely concluded that the value of him this year is sufficient to not have that future upside.
 

bowiac

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Interesting, thanks for the post. From this article, you might want to add a couple of other guys: Jeff Taylor (Hornets) and Darrell Arthur. From way back, Bob Rule also suffered an Achilles injury and tried to come back.

Here's another article with some interesting names, although for a lot of them, the injury was career ending: http://thehoopdoctors.com/2013/08/top-15-nba-careers-ruined-by-achilles-injuries-all-time/#16

My foot aches just reading about these injuries.
Thanks. I'll add Darrell Arthur. Taylor unfortunately I can't use, since his injury was career ending too it seems.

Good call.

BTW, some guy posted an admittedly incomplete list of injuries from 1946-2014 here: www.apbr.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=4169. Would be amazing if someone kept track of injuries and basketball (and other sports) in a more methodological way.
Thanks. This is helpful - I will see if I can track anyone else down.

I don't want to go too far back in time for this analysis, as medicine has improved, and I have a lot less confidence in how well BPM is tracking performance back before three pointers were at least somewhat common (the model is calibrated based on data since 2001).
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Thanks. I'll add Darrell Arthur. Taylor unfortunately I can't use, since his injury was career ending too it seems.
He probably doesn't have enough playing time for your study, but Taylor hasn't stopped playing basketball. He played in 29 games for CHA after coming back from his Achilles injury (without much success) and has been playing for Real Madrid for the last three years.
 

Jimbodandy

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Thanks. I'll add Darrell Arthur. Taylor unfortunately I can't use, since his injury was career ending too it seems.


Thanks. This is helpful - I will see if I can track anyone else down.

I don't want to go too far back in time for this analysis, as medicine has improved, and I have a lot less confidence in how well BPM is tracking performance back before three pointers were at least somewhat common (the model is calibrated based on data since 2001).
Just based on medical advances alone, you're smart to avoid going back too far. Some treatments have advanced much more than others obviously (ACL, for example), but overall ortho is night and day between 2018 and 1978.
 

Sam Ray Not

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The "medicine improving" part seems like a pretty key variable for all of them, since even a couple years can bring big advances in treatment and rehab. In that sense Rudy Gay seems like the most relevant sample — would be really interesting to hear from the esteemed Spurs med staff if there were anything different in his treatment or rehab from previous Achilles cases, or if it was more just a case of good luck / good genes. (Heck, I'd imagine the Spurs med staff would love to discuss a success story like Gay after a year of being harangued from all sides about Kawhi).
 

bowiac

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The "medicine improving" part seems like a pretty key variable for all of them, since even a couple years can bring big advances in treatment and rehab. In that sense Rudy Gay seems like the most relevant sample — would be really interesting to hear from the esteemed Spurs med staff if there were anything different in his treatment or rehab from previous Achilles cases, or if it was more just a case of good luck / good genes. (Heck, I'd imagine the Spurs med staff would love to discuss a success story like Gay after a year of being harangued from all sides about Kawhi).
I looked to see if there was a recency effect (have players been recovering better lately), and didn't really find anything. My suspicion is that Gay performed well here simply due to the limitations of BPM as a metric. He went from one of the most dysfunctional organizations in the NBA, that has never once maximized the talent of its players to one of the best organizations, that always puts its guys in a position to succeed.

That's a flaw in the study, but it's beyond the scope here.
 

mauf

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He turned down 2/40 from New Orleans after the injury, so I'm not sure when you think he became so self aware. Seems like he and his agent misread his market and then decided to ring chase when the money dried up.
Wasn’t aware he had turned down 2/40. That certainly changes things.
 

cheech13

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Why do you say this? Cousins apparently received no offers. He signed with the only team that would give him a contract - basically one of the few teams that would take a flier on him.
Portland offered something in $12-17MM AAV range, but Cousins' agent wouldn't engage in sign-and-trade scenarios because he also represents Jusuf Nurkic. Sounds like he got boned by his agent.

https://www.blazersedge.com/2018/7/5/17537764/nba-trade-rumors-demarcus-cousins-zach-collins-maurice-harkless-blazers-pelicans
 

Caspir

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Wasn’t aware he had turned down 2/40. That certainly changes things.
To be fair, they didn't say when after the injury the offer was made. I don't know if that changes my mind, because that's a lot of money for a rehab season and a prove it year, but then there's rumors AD didn't want him back, which also changes things.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sportingnews.com/us/amp/nba/news/demarcus-cousins-nba-free-agency-pelicans-warriors-anthony-davis-/uregovnl65u210r7y41f82khu
 

benhogan

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Cousins’ decision implicitly acknowledges that he’s not going to be valuable enough a year from now for Bird rights to matter. For an NBA player, that’s a surprising degree of self-awareness. (Or perhaps he defers completely to his agent on such matters.)

It’s a shame to see such a gifted player’s career derailed, at a time when he seemed to be coming into his own. I’m rooting for him to beat the odds.
Bully for you, so pious... If Demarcus is at the pearly gates you'll proceed.

BUT the Celtics and Warriors are very much in the Championship picture.

The last thing we want is an effective Cousins. So, I hope Boogie is a zero and DNP next season. Better yet, I hope he isn't very good but wants/needs minutes to get his next BIG contract. Kerr benches him and Boogie starts kicking garbage cans/throwing chairs in the locker room.

Going straight to hell is the price I'll pay for Banner 18. It was in the cards anyways.
 
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Sox Puppet

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Cousins is rapidly becoming this generation's version of Dwight Howard ... a center who, if he's the best guy on your team, you reluctantly tolerate; but who's such a pain in the ass that no quality star wants anything to do with him.
 

cheech13

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Cousins is rapidly becoming this generation's version of Dwight Howard ... a center who, if he's the best guy on your team, you reluctantly tolerate; but who's such a pain in the ass that no quality star wants anything to do with him.
Cousins and Howard are from the same generation. They are less than five years apart in age.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Cousins is rapidly becoming this generation's version of Dwight Howard ... a center who, if he's the best guy on your team, you reluctantly tolerate; but who's such a pain in the ass that no quality star wants anything to do with him.
And yet all of the Warriors core guys (Hamptons 5 plus Kerr) were reportedly thrilled at the idea of having Boogie on board, whereas none of them (again, reportedly) wanted anything to do with D12.

I could conjecture why that might be, but beyond the personality issues: there’s the key on-court difference that Boogie can play high-post in a motion offense (for Gentry in NO, e.g.), handle the ball, hit threes, hit his FTs, and set up his teammates for open looks, whereas Howard has never shown any of those skills.
 
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chilidawg

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Cousins is rapidly becoming this generation's version of Dwight Howard ... a center who, if he's the best guy on your team, you reluctantly tolerate; but who's such a pain in the ass that no quality star wants anything to do with him.
That's a pretty lazy comparison. Cousins is so much more talented than Dwight at the offensive end. And there was no indication of trouble in NO.
 

the moops

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That's a pretty lazy comparison. Cousins is so much more talented than Dwight at the offensive end. And there was no indication of trouble in NO.
Sure, he is more talented on the offensive end. I am not seeing where poster said otherwise. The comparison was to the shit show that seems to follow them. I am not sure the 65 games he played in NO should negate his history quite yet.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Portland offered something in $12-17MM AAV range, but Cousins' agent wouldn't engage in sign-and-trade scenarios because he also represents Jusuf Nurkic. Sounds like he got boned by his agent.

https://www.blazersedge.com/2018/7/5/17537764/nba-trade-rumors-demarcus-cousins-zach-collins-maurice-harkless-blazers-pelicans
I'm sure there was a discussion but I can't believe it ever got very serious because of the cap complications.

A sign-and-trade would hard cap PDX plus it's my understanding that PDX wouldn't be able use the taxpayer mid-level exception as well. Given that they are at something like $121M without resigning Nurkic and with possibly having to replace Wade Baldwin and George Papagiannis (salaries are guaranteed July 19 but if they are cut, they need to find replacements), taking on Cousins and moving whatever salaries have to go (Harkless? Leonard? Aminu?) isn't really going to help their roster building.

Second, as this article points out, by signing Randle to the Non-Taxpayer MLE, NO is hard capped so they can't exceed $129.7M. However, the article points out that NO also has to deal with approximately $6M in unlikely to achieve incentives. As such, they are really hard capped at $123M. They currently have $106.7M for 11 players, so they have approximately $16.3M left to fill out their roster. Do they really want the salaries back from PDX that would take to make a trade work for Cousins at $12M-$15M?

Finally, this is the same problem in trying to do a S&T with the 'Zards.
 

Sox Puppet

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Sure, he is more talented on the offensive end. I am not seeing where poster said otherwise. The comparison was to the shit show that seems to follow them. I am not sure the 65 games he played in NO should negate his history quite yet.
Right, and as for "no indication of trouble in NO" -- take this for what it's worth:

Davis liked the style the Pels started to play without Cousins, and he also liked the environment in the locker room more with Boogie absent.
I stand by my comparison to Dwight Howard, of whom this was written following his recent dumping:

Three months after he was traded from the Hawks, Zach Lowe mentioned on his podcast stories of “Hawks players learning about the trade and screaming with jubilation into their phones.” ... In Atlanta, Lowe reported, teammates would be subject to Dwight’s speeches about unity, then watch him rotate listlessly on defense and demand more post touches. Despite his uptick in raw production and legitimate added value to the team, it was no different on the Hornets.