Craig Kimbrel: Dominant Closer

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Kimbrel's turn from dominator to the Irish Slocumb has been causing cardiac stress around New England over the past couple of weeks. I'm officially worried after last night. I kept thinking he just needed to settle down and all would be well. He was badly missing last night. As pointed out in the game thread, he missed his target badly to Bregman and was lucky the pitch.ended up and in. Are you worried? What's the backup plan if Kimbrel falters again? Part of me thinks Cora is going to stick with him no matter what.
 

joe dokes

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Kimbrel's turn from dominator to the Irish Slocumb has been causing cardiac stress around New England over the past couple of weeks. I'm officially worried after last night. I kept thinking he just needed to settle down and all would be well. He was badly missing last night. As pointed out in the game thread, he missed his target badly to Bregman and was lucky the pitch.ended up and in. Are you worried? What's the backup plan if Kimbrel falters again? Part of me thinks Cora is going to stick with him no matter what.
Of course its worrisome.
I dont think Cora will stick with him "no matter what."
 

Max Power

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Cora touched on what may be his plan going forward. When Price was warming last night, he said he was going to him if the lead got down to 1. That seems clear to me that he trusts Kimbrel with a 2 or 3 run game, but not just 1.
 

DJnVa

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I keep hearing that they know what the issue is, that his delivery is all out of whack, but they can't get it fixed.

Anyone have any side by side videos to see what's happening?
 

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We are absolutely playing with fire here. I think you have to have someone warming up ready to go in at all times when he's in, even if it's a junk Hembree/Workman type. I'm reticent to switch up roles because Brasier/Barnes may not be good at it either and they seem quite comfortable in their current roles. I'd rather have a scary 9th than lose it in the 7th.

He now has 5 walks and 2 HBP in 5 1/3 postseason innings, which is just awful. He only hit 2 people during the entire regular season and his walk rate has doubled from where he was in the regular season. Walking Kemp to set up Bregman with the bases juiced was like a cry for help.

Even though Bregman hit a good ball last night, I'm glad he swung early and didn't let Kimbrel get down 3-1 in the count with the bases juiced.
 

j44thor

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Cora touched on what may be his plan going forward. When Price was warming last night, he said he was going to him if the lead got down to 1. That seems clear to me that he trusts Kimbrel with a 2 or 3 run game, but not just 1.
Did anyone tell Cora that HOU was allowed to score more than 1 run on a base hit???
 

j44thor

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I feel bad for Kimbrel right now, he has been mostly sensational in his Red Sox career. He doesn't seem to have any feel for any pitches right now. Could be mechanical but I wouldn't be surprised if he goes under the knife in the off-season.

He simply has no idea where any pitches are going at this point. Stuff is still a 10 but command is zero.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I thought his offspeed pitch was decent last night. But he couldn't command the fastball for shit.

I don't know what to do about it except hope he gets better and try to limit him to one inning going forward. We should have Porcello, EdRod, and Price available in the pen this weekend if the series moves back to Boston so that'll help.
 

JimD

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Make Brasier the closer. He may be the best reliever they have right now.
 

Gubanich Plague

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In the after game commentary, Pedro said that Kimbrel was looking at his target too late, which is why his control has been so wild. Sounds plausible to me.
 

Ale Xander

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Cora touched on what may be his plan going forward. When Price was warming last night, he said he was going to him if the lead got down to 1. That seems clear to me that he trusts Kimbrel with a 2 or 3 run game, but not just 1.
This strategy doesn't work if he loads the bases loaded and then grooves one
 

johnmd20

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Can the guy throw strikes? If so, put him out there. If not, they can't allow him to pitch in save situations. Walking the bases loaded cannot happen.
 

mikeysox

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I keep hearing that they know what the issue is, that his delivery is all out of whack, but they can't get it fixed.

Anyone have any side by side videos to see what's happening?
I wonder if his arm slot is lower. Pitchers sometimes do that as they age (Pedro, Jake Peavey) to try to get more whip/velo. It seems like he misses now because he gets crazy run arm side or when he totally yanks it glove side. It might also make his fast ball flatter and thus easier to hit.
 

joe dokes

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Make Brasier the closer. He may be the best reliever they have right now.
Which is why he should stay right where he is. He protected a 1 run lead. Kimbrel's was 3. "Closer" is a job description not a skill set. Cora trusts the offense to pad leads.
 

Ale Xander

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Make Brasier the closer. He may be the best reliever they have right now.
I'd keep Brasier and Barnes in their current roles and move Kelly to the closer role. He's got the stuff and temperament.
 

Wingack

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To me it seems like he just can't get it together on the road. And the road crowd is completely aware that they can get in his head. I would be fine with him in Fenway, though. Not in Milwaukee.

He would probably be fine pitching in LA though. I am not sure those guys cheer out there.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Is that a JoKe?
Well, let's put it this way: could he be much worse than the guy doing the job now?

But I agree with joe dokes that the current arrangement may actually be better than a shuffled pen would be. A lot of games are won and lost in the 7th and 8th, and then the cherry is put on the sundae in the 9th. It's been a scary cherry with Kimbrel out there, but all in all I'd rather having him pitching after our offense has had a chance to give him a stake to play with. The Sox seem to have stumbled into a relief ace system almost by accident, with Brasier and Barnes taking turns being the aces. It's working (barely). Might as well ride with it.
 

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I feel bad for Kimbrel right now, he has been mostly sensational in his Red Sox career. He doesn't seem to have any feel for any pitches right now. Could be mechanical but I wouldn't be surprised if he goes under the knife in the off-season.

He simply has no idea where any pitches are going at this point. Stuff is still a 10 but command is zero.
Tanking velocity is usually the telltale sign of injury but it’s not unheard of for pitchers to maintain velocity but lose the ability to control/command with an injury. He doesn’t look like a guy who is having a bad couple games though—more like a guy with some sort of serious underlying issue. He has no clue where his pitches are going and couldn’t throw one over the plate on command if he wanted to.
 

joe dokes

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I'd keep Brasier and Barnes in their current roles and move Kelly to the closer role. He's got the stuff and temperament.
Kelly couldn't even get through the 5th unscathed.
The way things are going, the tightest spots are going to the best relievers. Leave Kimbrel in the 9th. It might blow up once. But Devers might also make a big error.
The only sure things are the Sox outfield D and the left side of the Astors' IF. (Correia brainfart aside.)
 

Cesar Crespo

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I feel bad for Kimbrel right now, he has been mostly sensational in his Red Sox career. He doesn't seem to have any feel for any pitches right now. Could be mechanical but I wouldn't be surprised if he goes under the knife in the off-season.

He simply has no idea where any pitches are going at this point. Stuff is still a 10 but command is zero.
He was pretty meh in 2016 and was shaky this year. He was amazing last year. Sensational isn't the word I'd use.
 

KillerBs

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Really seems like Kimbrel is over-relying on breaking ball now which he cant consistently throw for strikes. I would like to see him more emulate the 'tude of Brasier -- pound the zone with the challenge fastball early in the count being prepared to live with the consequences in the unlikely event they catch up with one.
 

DanoooME

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The worst was the HBP with an 0-2 count. It's one thing to waste a pitch, but he threw an out away there.

Maybe Pedro can give him a call today.

And it would not surprise me if he came in again tonight with a 2-3 run lead. Really test that "he needs more work" theory going around.
 

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Really seems like Kimbrel is over-relying on breaking ball now which he cant consistently throw for strikes. I would like to see him more emulate the 'tude of Brasier -- pound the zone with the challenge fastball early in the count being prepared to live with the consequences in the unlikely event they catch up with one.
I think that's part of the problem, tough. It seems like he can't regularly throw the fastball for strikes, much less pound the zone.
 

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His postseason lines this year are bad for any reliever: in 5.1 innings he's given up 5 ER, and that easily could be inflated by a couple if it weren't for 10D's catch last night and some loud/warning track outs. SSS obviously, but anecdotally just looking at the guy, it's clear he's shaky. He's almost blown every save situation this postseason.

He can't be trusted to throw strikes. I'd say go with Barnes or Brasier, but given the SP situation and them likely needed well before the 9th/8th, I guess Eovaldi tonight and Saturday if necessary, and Eovaldi/Price Sunday if necessary. Relying on SP to spell an imploding Giles is what Houston did last year, and obviously the team is familiar with that blueprint.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Tanking velocity is usually the telltale sign of injury but it’s not unheard of for pitchers to maintain velocity but lose the ability to control/command with an injury. He doesn’t look like a guy who is having a bad couple games though—more like a guy with some sort of serious underlying issue. He has no clue where his pitches are going and couldn’t throw one over the plate on command if he wanted to.
He was pretty good in September other than the one implosion against the Orioles (which in retrospect looked a lot like the postseason appearances). In the past he's had these runs of a couple bad games where he has little control and then righted the ship and put together a bunch of strong appearances in a row.

I think there's reason for optimism that he can turn it around. But its scary.
 

Max Power

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This strategy doesn't work if he loads the bases loaded and then grooves one
Sure, but he got out of it. The more interesting question is what happens when the 9th rolls around and they only have a 1 run lead. If it's an elimination game, I think you'll see Sale, Porcello, or Price in there unless Kimbrel shows a remarkable turnaround in the next couple days.
 

David Kaiser

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I like to think I've learned to take the long view about players and teams, and not to jump on anyone for a couple of bad performances. Kimbrel, however, obviously has no business on the mound at all the way he's pitching now. He doesn't seem to want to throw his fastball, which is weird. I think either something is physically wrong with him or he simply can't take playoff pressure. (I was pretty surprised by the comment that he's fine in Fenway, by the way--he wasn't in game 2.) The job of closer, it has been demonstrated, is way overrated, and it's silly to waste a really good pitcher in that role. But it's a job where you can LOSE a lot of games if you are bad enough and that is what he has been threatening to do again and again. You would be hard put, I think, to find any established closer who has had three consecutive outings as bad as his last three. Had it not been for Kemp's crazy decision to take second base--and, of course, Benintendi's great catch--he would have lost that game last night.
 

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I like to think I've learned to take the long view about players and teams, and not to jump on anyone for a couple of bad performances. Kimbrel, however, obviously has no business on the mound at all the way he's pitching now. He doesn't seem to want to throw his fastball, which is weird. I think either something is physically wrong with him or he simply can't take playoff pressure. (I was pretty surprised by the comment that he's fine in Fenway, by the way--he wasn't in game 2.) The job of closer, it has been demonstrated, is way overrated, and it's silly to waste a really good pitcher in that role. But it's a job where you can LOSE a lot of games if you are bad enough and that is what he has been threatening to do again and again. You would be hard put, I think, to find any established closer who has had three consecutive outings as bad as his last three. Had it not been for Kemp's crazy decision to take second base--and, of course, Benintendi's great catch--he would have lost that game last night.
It's pretty clear he wants to throw his fastball. He just can't throw it for strikes very well.
 

BaseballJones

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One thing he could do is simply try to throw the fastball middle-middle. He's missing his spots on almost every fastball by a good 6 inches or so, and so that gives him some wiggle room to miss. In fact, since it's likely he'll miss, it probably will end up being a 98 mph fastball in one of the corners of the zone. Don't try to hit corners. Just try to throw strikes and let the natural explosiveness and movement of the fastball do the work.
 

OurF'ingCity

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One thing he could do is simply try to throw the fastball middle-middle. He's missing his spots on almost every fastball by a good 6 inches or so, and so that gives him some wiggle room to miss. In fact, since it's likely he'll miss, it probably will end up being a 98 mph fastball in one of the corners of the zone. Don't try to hit corners. Just try to throw strikes and let the natural explosiveness and movement of the fastball do the work.
Especially when there is more than a one-run lead and no one on base. I can forgive his nibbling when the result of a middle-middle pitch is a walk-off hit, but it is absolutely infuriating when he walks guys with a multiple-run lead and no one on. In those situations, I totally agree - just throw middle-middle FB and let the movement of the pitch do its thing - worst case, you give up a solo shot but even then the bases are still clean and you treat the next guy as if it is the start of the inning.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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His numbers scream injury but he's still in the upper 90s with his fastball. He's always been kind of a wild pitcher, tricking people to swing at pitches out of the strike zone that are pretty much impossible to hit. Have batters finally figured this out?
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I like to think I've learned to take the long view about players and teams, and not to jump on anyone for a couple of bad performances. Kimbrel, however, obviously has no business on the mound at all the way he's pitching now. He doesn't seem to want to throw his fastball, which is weird. I think either something is physically wrong with him or he simply can't take playoff pressure. (I was pretty surprised by the comment that he's fine in Fenway, by the way--he wasn't in game 2.) The job of closer, it has been demonstrated, is way overrated, and it's silly to waste a really good pitcher in that role. But it's a job where you can LOSE a lot of games if you are bad enough and that is what he has been threatening to do again and again. You would be hard put, I think, to find any established closer who has had three consecutive outings as bad as his last three. Had it not been for Kemp's crazy decision to take second base--and, of course, Benintendi's great catch--he would have lost that game last night.
Before this year his career postseason stats were 10 IP, 2 ER, 15K, 4 BB, 0 HR.

He's in a funk right now. I don't think its indicative of some mental fragility in big situations and its doesn't look like some kind of serious physical ailment. His velocity is there, he's spinning the ball fine on breaking stuff, he just command his pitches, especially the fastball.

The best approach is probably just to work with him on the side, keep using him in high leverage situations and hope good Kimbrel returns, but to have a pretty quick hook if he doesn't.
 

canderson

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Does anyone know where to find stats on Kimbrel at-bats he starts 0-1 vs 1-0?

I don't think he's hurt, I think he just has no control whatsoever on any of his pitches (most telling is the FB of course). When a closer can't throw strikes, they are no longer worthy of closing.
 

Cesar Crespo

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His postseason lines this year are bad for any reliever: in 5.1 innings he's given up 5 ER, and that easily could be inflated by a couple if it weren't for 10D's catch last night and some loud/warning track outs. SSS obviously, but anecdotally just looking at the guy, it's clear he's shaky. He's almost blown every save situation this postseason.

He can't be trusted to throw strikes. I'd say go with Barnes or Brasier, but given the SP situation and them likely needed well before the 9th/8th, I guess Eovaldi tonight and Saturday if necessary, and Eovaldi/Price Sunday if necessary. Relying on SP to spell an imploding Giles is what Houston did last year, and obviously the team is familiar with that blueprint.
The Astros probably could have scored 2 more runs in the 8th if it weren't for Kemp and Marwin making dumb plays.
 

TheYaz67

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Yeah, you cannot bring him into a 1 run game at this point, not with a WHIP north of 2 and the fact that he has surrendered runs in all 4 of his postseason games this year, due to lack of command mostly. As other have noted, if the defense didn't bail him out on some hard hit balls those numbers would be even worse....

Insane the Sox are where they are, given how awful he has been. Would not want to be Cora trying to figure out how to handle him going forward. I don't think he is available tonight, or should not be, after throwing 35 mostly awful pitches last night.
 

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Yeah, you cannot bring him into a 1 run game at this point, not with a WHIP north of 2 and the fact that he has surrendered runs in all 4 of his postseason games this year, due to lack of command mostly. As other have noted, if the defense didn't bail him out on some hard hit balls those numbers would be even worse....

Insane the Sox are where they are, given how awful he has been. Would not want to be Cora trying to figure out how to handle him going forward. I don't think he is available tonight, or should not be, after throwing 35 mostly awful pitches last night.
If they actually have the lead heading into the bottom of the 9th tonight, with a chance to close it out, I'll be shocked if Cora doesn't put Kimbrel in the game.
 

TheYaz67

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His four postseason games so far:

Game 1 ALDS: 14 strikes, 8 balls
Game 4 ALDS: 13 strikes, 15 balls (!!!)
Game 2 ALCS: 10 strikes, 6 balls
Game 4 ALCS: 19 strikes, 16 balls

None of those ball/strike ratios are what you would expect from a "dominant" closer. Of his 19 strikes last night, 8 were looking, I suspect not because they were such awesome pitches, but b/c the Astros know right now to keep the bats on their shoulders (and/or they were already ahead in the count), given his ongoing command problems....
 

DJnVa

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Does anyone know where to find stats on Kimbrel at-bats he starts 0-1 vs 1-0?
Baseball Reference has all of this, at least for regular season: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=kimbrcr01&year=2018&t=p

After 0-1: .520 OPS
After 1-0: .644 OPS


If they actually have the lead heading into the bottom of the 9th tonight, with a chance to close it out, I'll be shocked if Cora doesn't put Kimbrel in the game.
Only once this season when he threw 30+ pitches, did he pitch the next day--on May 22 and 23. He threw 10 pitches the next day. One time he had thrown 23 pitches the day before he threw 30+, giving him over 50 for the 2 days (June 11 and 12).

The only way I think he comes in tonight is if there's no other option, or it's 10-1 and he wants him to get some work in.
 

DJnVa

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And I actually wonder if he'll do better. Sometimes closers aren't as sharp when they have bigger leads to protect. It's weird.
Hitters are 1-18 with 10 Ks against him when the margin is 4 runs or greater. In low leverage situations, his OPS allowed is .543.
 

lexrageorge

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His four postseason games so far:

Game 1 ALDS: 14 strikes, 8 balls
Game 4 ALDS: 13 strikes, 15 balls (!!!)
Game 2 ALCS: 10 strikes, 6 balls
Game 4 ALCS: 19 strikes, 16 balls

None of those ball/strike ratios are what you would expect from a "dominant" closer. Of his 19 strikes last night, 8 were looking, I suspect not because they were such awesome pitches, but b/c the Astros know right now to keep the bats on their shoulders (and/or they were already ahead in the count), given his ongoing command problems....
Kimbrel threw 62.2% of this pitches for strikes this season. Same percentage as 2 of those 4 games.
 

Harry Hooper

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Pedro on the post-game show had his pitching coach hat on. He said Kimbrel is picking up the catcher's target too late on most deliveries, and this is what is messing with his command.

oops, already covered above.
 

TheYaz67

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If they actually have the lead heading into the bottom of the 9th tonight, with a chance to close it out, I'll be shocked if Cora doesn't put Kimbrel in the game.
I'll be shocked if he does - when Houston's closer struggled last year in the postseason they went away from him, and it worked - Cora was bench coach on that team.... Kimbrel not only had no command last night, but when he did get it over they hit 3 line drives off him (as well as some easy fly balls admittedly). You want to put in a guy who is walking and beaning batters constantly, and who is now also getting hit hard on 97 mph pitches over the middle of the plate, in a 1 run game? Because I don't want Cora to do that....

Will also point out that 35 pitches is the most he has thrown in one appearance this season. He also had another 10~ games this season he threw 25+ pitches in an outing, but only twice after such an outing did Cora use him the next day....
 

pk1627

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Cora has gone twice to Kimbrel to get the heart of the Astros order at the end of a game. In Game 2 it was the 9th. Last night it was the 8th. He did the job.

I surely expected a roller-coaster ride in the ninth as he went for the 2 inning save. I’m surprised everyone else was shocked.

The issue here was we needed this guy for 6 outs. The secondary issue is that in these playoffs he’s faced some pretty high octane offenses in crunch time.

“No business on a mound”. Is this a serious comment?
 

JimD

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If they actually have the lead heading into the bottom of the 9th tonight, with a chance to close it out, I'll be shocked if Cora doesn't put Kimbrel in the game.
Good God, no. I would literally trust anyone in the bullpen over Kimbrel right now.

If they need an arm to close this one out, Eovaldi should be available for an inning, right?
 

AB in DC

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Just listening to Cora talking about Kimbrel I get a really bad Grady/Pedro vibe. The manager keeps going to his trusted guy, despite all evidence to the contrary, and keeps wriggling out of games with a win. Until one day he doesn't. And at this rate, it's going to happen in ALCS game 7 just like it did in 2003.
 

KillerBs

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Totally disagree. I think for now we gotta live or die with Kimbrel in the 9th. Cant over-react to such small sample size. Still throwing 98 plus. High walk totals part of package with him but he is one of best closers ever. Leave Kelly-Brasier-Barnes in current roles. Not really fair to give the ball to one of these "kids" with season on the line when you havent asked it all year. They got enough on their plate pitching the 6th-8th every night.

Not trying to suggest Kimbrel pitched well but he got 6 massive outs for us last night giving up one run. 2 hard hit balls: Kemp in the 8th on first pitch FB (98) middle middle and Springer in the 8th with a FB (99) on the black outside on 2-2 pitch. Good pitch. Stros had it 2nd and 3rd in the 8th with one out, down 3, and he gets Altuve (6-3) and Marwin (K, 4 knuckle curves). Easy to forget, I know.

No doubt 3 walks in the 9th in a 2 run game is verging on inexcusable, also no doubt he completely lost FB AND KC command in the 9th, but they didn't really square a ball up. Bregman first pitch swinging there was helpful.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I think we’ll see Barnes close a game tonight if it’s less than 2 run lead in the 9th. Will Eovaldi be available tonight for an inning?