David Krejci - Overrated? Underrated? Properly Rated?

[veritas]

It’ll probably be Wagner or, less likely, Grzelyck oR Halak.

Outside the box option that’ll never win, but to me should get consideration- David Krejci.

Missed the game tonight but just wanted to echo this. David Krejci has been amazing this season. They were 9-6-1 without Bergeron in Nov/Dec which is pretty amazing given the lack of center depth they had at the time. For me it's Krejci and then Halak.

But Wagner will probably get it because he's local and likes to crash into things. He's been a really nice player on a 4th line playing as a 3rd line all season, to be fair. I just think Kuraly drives than line more than the other two. His transition ability is what lets them give that line a ton of D-zone draws against tough competition. Lots of 4th lines can play tough in their own end, but Kuraly gets the puck out of the d-zone and into the o-zone with possession.

 

[TFP]

Krejci playing up to his median expectations this year is insane to discuss getting 7th player. This is the player that was expected as an average every year when he was signed to be the highest paid forward on the team. The idea that throwing up a 60-70 point season deserves accolades for exceeding expectations is just proof of how bad he’s been and how overpaid he is.

He’s had a good year, no doubt. It’s about time.

 

[Salem's Lot]

Wagner should get the 7th player. He’s been great and contributed much more than expected offensively, we weren’t sure he was even going to stay on the team at the beginning of the season. That’s what the 7th player is supposed to be for.

As for Krejci, I think he’s finally gotten his game back after surgery on both hips. Hopefully this is what he is the two years of his deal.

 

[cshea]

I kinda wanted to work in the line “giving him credit for exceeding our expectations is an indictment of our expectations” but I thought it was a bit theatrical.

Yeah, I guess this could be accurate. I just think he’s having his best year in a while and has done so under less than ideal circumstances. He stepped up when Bergy was out and has produced at a higher clip than he has in recent seasons with a revolving cast of AHL wingers.

 

[McDrew]

I honestly think both points on Krecji are valid. He has underperformed for his contract, but is performing up to it this year with both his play and how he is adapting to a less-than-ideal linemate situation. I too hope this trend of improvement from him continues.

 

[veritas]

I think Krejci has been very underrated by a lot of Bruins fans for a long time. He's played like a #1 center his whole career. I don't think there's ever been a year where he wasn't a top 30 center, and definitely not this season. He's carried the team at times, while playing some bad wingers. 182 minutes with Nordstrom, his 4th most common winger.

I disagree that he's overpaid. Yeah he didn't take a ridiculous discount like the entire 1st line did, but his contract is basically market value. If he was a free agent after this season he'd be looking at something at least like Stastny got, 3 years, 6.5 mil through his age 35 season.

 

[TFP]

IHe's played like a #1 center his whole career. I don't think there's ever been a year where he wasn't a top 30 center, and definitely not this season.

This is just objectively not true. He's literally not even top 30 this year (although he's close). He's not a #1 center this year by any stretch, he's a solid #2 being paid like a top 10-15 center in the league.

Below are Krejci's ranking in points and his cap hit dating back to 2014-2015, overall in the league then among centers in parentheses. From then until now, he's not even close to a #1 center. He doesn't make players around him better, needs good players on his line to produce, and isn't a premiere offensive player. I know points aren't the perfect stat by any stretch, but it's one way to look at it.

Points - Overall Rank (Centers)
2018-2019 - 55 (31)
2017-2018 - 153 (68)
2016-2017 - 68 (34)
2015-2016 - 31 (14)
2014-2015 - 239 (79)

Cap Hit - Overall Rank (Centers)
2018-2019 - 38 (15)
2017-2018 - 34 (13)
2016-2017 - 27 (10)
2015-2016 - 24 (9)
2014-2015 - 95 (29)

I'm not even trying to hate on Krejci or want him gone or anything - he's been fine this year. But this idea that he's a #1 center and not overpaid is baffling to me.

 

[TFP]

Split this out from the game thread.

 

[lexrageorge]

Krejci may be overpaid, but it's probably in the slightly overpaid category as opposed to killer overpaid (a la David Backes). He has always been in the upper tier of #2 centers in the league when healthy. If we ignore his injuries during the 2014-15 season, he probably would have received a similar contract had he reached unrestricted free agency.

Chiarelli did sign him at his peak value. His 26 points among playoff scorers in 2013 was tops, and his 2013-14 season was among his best from a point production standpoint. The signing was a risk, especially after Krejci started to struggle with knee and hip injuries. But he's been among the team's leaders in the possession stats this season; his Corsi stats are quite close to Bergeron's, for example. So it's one of those overpays we should be able to live with; it wasn't a terrible decision at the time it was made either.

Admittedly, we still don't know how well the contract will age over the next 2 seasons, but at least the NMC portion expires after this season when it converts to a full NTC.

 

[veritas]

Going by primary points per 60, hockeyviz has him firmly has a 1st liner over the past 3 years at 5v5 (I don’t believe they separate centers and wings though) https://hockeyviz.com/player/krejcda86 . His total points are also really hurt by his power play usage. He plays half as much as the top unit, generally with not great players, but still puts up “1st unit” primary points per 60. Also, if you’re looking at hockey reference, a bunch of players are called centers who don’t play center. He’s 25th this season by my count, but I could be wrong about a couple guys.

I’d also strongly disagree he doesn’t make other players better. He’s played over 200 minutes with Nordstrom this year. Last year, after DeBrusk, his most common winger was Ryan Spooner. 2 seasons ago David Backes was his most common winger. He’s not turning them into all stars, but he’s being very productive playing with some bad players.

He’s also well regarded by some advanced stats. Andrew Berkshire who has a bunch of proprietary micro stats has him rated as the #19 center between 2015-16 and 2017-18. He summarized him (sorry, sportsnet links don’t embed right here so I can’t link) :

Every year I expect to see Krejci fall down the rankings as younger players jump up, but he manages to hold on for at least one more year. Always in Patrice Bergeron’s shadow, Krejci has seen his offensive numbers slip a bit in his early-30s, which combines with the fact that he doesn’t get the highest quality wingers anymore.

Krejci is a strong puckhandler, but his passing has enabled him to remain a top-end transition player while slowing down slightly due to age. Krejci boasts one of the best pass success rates relative to his team of any centre in the league – he’s able to find quick players such as Jake DeBrusk in stride to attack off the rush. Krejci’s presence as a safety net and transition player was a big reason why DeBrusk was able to have such a strong rookie campaign.