First, Butler hasn't gone anywhere yet. And it's become clear that Butler's agent was going to explore the free agent market no matter what.
Why would you prefer Ryan over Gilmore? Would you prefer Ryan over Butler at the same cost?
A few reasons
The risk is that guys in contract years play to impress other teams rather than doing what's best for their own. So maybe the downside of re-upping a below-average number of your own guys (if BB in fact does this) is having to make the occasional Collins or (less clearly) Jones deal.
Well they did just win the SB with Ryan playing a significant role all season.
They also won a SB with McClellin and Van Noy playing significant roles this season. Not sure what your point is.
This is exactly the sort of thing BB never does though. He absolutely refuses to give elite contracts to players like Ryan (good, but not elite) - Gilmore is a much better player than Ryan.
So, of all the concerns that exist, only one of them is on the football field (we know what we have)? That isn't a snarky question, by the way. I think salary cap/locker room stuff is important, too. But they have oodles of dollars to spend, the contract is probably very similar to every other "large" contract handed out in the NFL (as you noted, he very well could be expendable in 3 years), and the Patriots already have a stigma of not paying for their players (Spikes, Jones, Seymour had all made gripes about it after leaving). If paying for guys like Mankins, Mayo, Wilfork, etc didn't move the needle on that stigma, I'm inclined to think that signing a slot corner for a few years wouldn't help.
They haven't lost Malcolm Butler yet.
Good points. I disagree about the slot corner thing a bit - not in that Ryan can't play outside, but in that you play 3 CBs a ton anyway, so slot is basically a starter anyway.
Good question. Let me answer your question with my own question:
I do not think, however, that Rowe can play in the slot, which was Ryan's primary responsibility.
The real question should be whether you prefer Gilmore at 13 over Butler moving forward as Ryan's position will likely be filled by a much lower cost replacement and not Gilmore assuming we move Butler now for Cooks' ridiculously cheap contract. We acquired Revis and Browner, then won a Super Bowl. We watched the mediots lose their minds when they were replaced by Butler and Ryan.....and what do you know, we won another Super Bowl. I have no problem moving forward with Gilmore and a low cost Ryan-replacement while adding the dirt cheap Cooks to our receiver corps (saving more money over Amendola with better production to boot). It also allows us to retain Jimmy G as a highly paid backup the following season with our CB and WR still on value deals in 2018.
I don't agree Ryan can't play outside - he did play outside in base defense, and for the most part he was fine. His speed limits him out there - he needs safety help that a real shutdown guy wouldn't - but he could also match up to the big guys outside, which is something Arrington couldn't do (and Butler doesn't do either).
I think this is right. I haven't watched a lot of Gilmore, but in theory he's a guy who checks all the boxes. Butler is limited by his lack of size, Ryan by his lack of speed, but they complemented each other well. Gilmore doesn't have as many limitations as those guys and gives the team more flexibility in filling out the rest of the secondary.
Rowe hasn't played much slot, but he did play some safety in college, so you'd think he would have an understanding of the middle-of-the-field responsibilities there. I'm guessing Cyrus Jones or Coleman gets a crack at slot duties.
I love the signing/non-signing and agree that to call this a contract based on 5 games is just flat silly -- Gilmore is a better CB. My only question/doubt is in re YAC as someone else mentioned but also how good Ryan was against the run. Does anyone have a sense of Gilmore in run support?
That's fair, although I feel like he was put in that role because he was the de facto #2 CB out of sheer necessity. As you (and I) stated previously, due to his lack of speed, he needs help regardless of where he plays on the field. If his numbers are below par on the outside despite the requirement of additional team help, I have a hard time understanding how some folks would want to pay him $10 million but shudder at paying Gilmore $13. Further, I get the impression Bill may be comfortable using Rowe in the role to cover bigger WR's on the outside in the coming year.
Yeah, I suppose my bigger concern is Rowe's lack of agility/side-to-side quickness required from playing the slot. I haven't researched, but I'd have to assume there aren't a ton of top-notch 6'1 slot corners.
I think that's right - Gilmore should get more than Ryan or Butler, because he doesn't have the limitations those guys have.
We kind of saw that in the Super Bowl - in three receiver sets when Julio Jones was outside, Rowe generally covered him, and Ryan got Jones in two receiver sets and when he lined up in the slot.
Its a tangential point, but I think Rowe has some real upside to eventually play to those physical talents. He only played one year of CB at Utah and then had to really learn the position for real in the NFL in 2015, then switched DC/HC in 2016 and fell out of favor with the new regime in Philly, then switched DC/HC again when he came over to the Patriots. So he has had to learn a new position while also playing in three different schemes in two years. He might be one of those guys whose poor instincts undermine his physical gifts. But he could also just be a tiny bit slow mentally because of that unusual career trajectory.
I think you have adequately summed up the general fan perception of how Ryan is perceived relative to Butler. I do not think that perception reflects reality. Their Football Outsiders charting numbers are pretty similar:
Not entirely dissimilar to Shane Vereen when you think about it - Super Bowl hero, but was clearly replaceable.
My compliments to you.
That's fair. OTOH, they turned the secondary over from Revis, Browner, and Arrington two offseasons ago to a modestly-experienced Ryan, an inexperienced Butler, and rookie UDFA Justin Coleman (with veteran backstops Tarell Brown and Bradley Fletcher, for a while). Gilmore is a lot more experienced than Ryan was then, Rowe is about as experienced as Ryan was, Coleman is more experienced than Butler was and Jones not much less. Then again, the front seven was better-equipped at the time. They could certainly bring in a low-priced vet to compete with these guys: a quick perusal of the FA list shows guys like Mo Claiborne, Brandon Flowers, Sam Shields, Leon Hall, Revis, Brandon Carr, Keenan Lewis, etc., who could compete with the young guys if they aren't ready.
