Devers called up to Majors

[Sampo Gida]

is there any credence in the HR Derby theory? I know people have said that it screws with a hitter's swing, and his 1st half/2nd half split is pretty stark.

I went back to 2005 (PED testing did notbreallybbegun until 2005) and looked at all players who had hit 10 or more HR in the contests as a proxy for how much effort was expended as opposed to someone one and done who did not do much in the contest

I found there was a 23% drop in HR/G in the 2nd half. The same players had a 6% drop in the 2nd half for the career. The net effect was a 17% drop after going somewhat deep in the HRD.

About 30% of these players had no significant drop in HR/G output in the 2nd half and were more likely to repeat the HRD.

Only a handful of cases where HR/G output increased out of 46 player seasons.

Whether its the HRD itself or simply regression or some combination its hard to say one way or the other, and it may be some players are more susceptible to a HRD effect than others.

 

[Reverend]

I went back to 2005 (PED testing did notbreallybbegun until 2005) and looked at all players who had hit 10 or more HR in the contests as a proxy for how much effort was expended as opposed to someone one and done who did not do much in the contest

I found there was a 23% drop in HR/G in the 2nd half. The same players had a 6% drop in the 2nd half for the career. The net effect was a 17% drop after going somewhat deep in the HRD.

About 30% of these players had no significant drop in HR/G output in the 2nd half and were more likely to repeat the HRD.

Only a handful of cases where HR/G output increased out of 46 player seasons.

Whether its the HRD itself or simply regression or some combination its hard to say one way or the other, and it may be some players are more susceptible to a HRD effect than others.

Some of the players in the HRD are there because of lucky first halves, some are not.

Assuming some players are selected based on lucky first halfs that yield high HR numbers, we should expect there to be regression to the mean for those players while others in the contest are just playing to their "true" level, which is consistent with what we see.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Didn't seem to affect Mike Stanton too much this year, although last year he went from a HR every 16 AB pre ASG to one every 20 AB in an injury riddled 2nd half

 

[Humphrey]

Didn't seem to affect Mike Stanton too much this year, although last year he went from a HR every 16 AB pre ASG to one every 20 AB in an injury riddled 2nd half

Didn't affect Giancarlo much either

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

You can call him Albert, I still call him Joey

 

[DJnVa]

You can call him Albert, I still call him Joey

A group of us (cuz we were idiots) serenaded him with "Joey" in Cleveland years ago. The Indians sent a team rep out to us and asked one kid who had joined in with us to come down to locker room to chat with him after game to explain why he changed it.

 

[joe dokes]

A group of us (cuz we were idiots) serenaded him with "Joey" in Cleveland years ago. The Indians sent a team rep out to us and asked one kid who had joined in with us to come down to locker room to chat with him after game to explain why he changed it.

The only thing I would've changed was my underwear.

 

[Mike F]

The only thing I would've changed was my underwear.

"Underwear??"

 

[canderson]

He hit a 102.8 mph pitch from a lefty to the opposite field to tie the game in New York. This kid needs more love.

 

[bosockboy]

He made his bones tonight. This was his Sollozzo/McClusky hit.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

1st lefty HR off Chapman in 6 years. As big a moment as you get in the regular season - this kid is playoffs ready

 

[RedOctober3829]

When do you move Devers further up in the order? Nunez-Mookie-Benintendi-Devers top 4 would be great.

 

[edoug]

It was the fastest pitch hit for a homer since at least 2008.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2727297-rafael-devers-sets-mlb-record-with-game-tying-home-run-off-aroldis-chapman

 

[Sprowl]

Devers faced four fastballs between 101.9 and 102.8 mph. Apparently Chapman needed a changeup.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

He hit a 102.8 mph pitch from a lefty to the opposite field to tie the game in New York. This kid needs more love.

Video of a Yankees fan reacting in the stands.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Here's the homer for posterity. Wish I could find a clip of his last AB that I didn't get a chance to see but no such luck.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Video of a Yankees fan reacting in the stands.

I give the guy credit for posting the video despite the outcome. I would think in his place, I'd be hitting delete on that rather than post. Then again, I wouldn't be taking such a video in the first place so maybe it's a generational thing.

 

[Van Everyman]

Agree. This isn't the pizza douche – it's a MFY true believer who had the stones to share his disappointment with the world.

Another reminder that this rivalry changed in 2004 for good. And for the better.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I missed last night's game (ack!) and just caught up with the highlights this morning. It strikes me that Devers' 10th-inning out is almost as impressive as the 9th-inning HR (though obviously less consequential). He took a 99-mph pitch and hit such a bullet to deep LF that it fooled Gardner, whose route revealed that he was expecting it to tail a bit more toward the line and lose a bit more velocity. He recovered to make a great play, but the fact that an outfielder of Gardner's experience and skill misread the ball in that way suggests to me that Devers squared it up just about perfectly.

He's gonna be fun to watch for a long time.

 

[jmcc5400]

The last at bat - the rocket to left field that almost took Gardner's glove off - was almost as impressive. Can't find the exit velocity on it, but it was a laser that would have dented the wall at Fenway.

Sent from my SM-G550T using SoSH mobile app

 

[bosockboy]

Betting on Devers over Moncada, DD deserves a lot of credit for. Early returns are strong.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

He hit a 102.8 mph pitch from a lefty to the opposite field to tie the game in New York. This kid needs more love.

I've thought for 2 years now that he was the club's best chance to actually get an eventual LHH successor to Big Papi. There have signs since he was in the DSL that suggested legit Miguel Cabrera upside, although mostly that was documented on the scouting side rather than in the stats.

But no way did I expect him to be so good against such good MLB pitching so soon.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Betting on Devers over Moncada, DD deserves a lot of credit for. Early returns are strong.

Is this true though? Is there any info that suggests Chicago asked for Devers but settled for Moncada?

 

[Sam Ray Not]

He made his bones tonight. This was his Sollozzo/McClusky hit.

"Just let your hand drop to your side and the bat slip out. Everyone will still think you've got it. They're gonna be staring at your face, Raf. So walk out of the place real fast, but you don't run. Don't look nobody directly in the eye, but don't look away either. They're gonna be scared of you, believe me, so don't worry about nothing. "

 

[Strike4]

Is this true though? Is there any info that suggests Chicago asked for Devers but settled for Moncada?

Yes, it's been mentioned in many articles beginning in February (Boston Globe one I can't link to because of the paywall) and up until this latest one. If you google Dombrowski Moncada Devers they come up.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Betting on Devers over Moncada, DD deserves a lot of credit for. Early returns are strong.

Not remotely counting out Moncada's prospects at age 22 (or guaranteeing superstardom for Devers at 20) but I do feel like the overvaluing of ripped superhero bodies and undervaluing of players who lack same is an enduring market inefficiency in most sports. Very happy that DD seems not to have been taken in.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I give the guy credit for posting the video despite the outcome. I would think in his place, I'd be hitting delete on that rather than post. Then again, I wouldn't be taking such a video in the first place so maybe it's a generational thing.

It's good content no matter how it turned out. In fact, he'll get far more views on it this way than if Devers had struck out. Misery loves company, plus now he he has every Red Sox fan on the internet sharing it. It's all about the clicks.

 

[Humphrey]

Re: Sollozzo vs Devers: Both happened in the Bronx!

Devers' line drive in the 10th reminded me of one Matsui hit in Game 5 in 2004....one that almost knocked Trot Nixon over. Which he caught, unlike Jeter's in 2003 which he didn't.

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

The shit that is happening when the ball leaves his bat is impressive. But the look on the kids face as he's digging in against Chapman down a run in the ninth is unbelievable. He literally looks like he's stepping in for a round of BP, and he's 20. It's mind blowing the composure and level of calm he's had in big at bats so far. Plus it was a friggin 1-2 count. He's taking a hack like that in a 1-2 count against 103? It's unreal. And yes, that swing in the 10th was just as good.

 

[shaggydog2000]

Not remotely counting out Moncada's prospects at age 22 (or guaranteeing superstardom for Devers at 20) but I do feel like the overvaluing of ripped superhero bodies and undervaluing of players who lack same is an enduring market inefficiency in most sports. Very happy that DD seems not to have been taken in.

There is also the fact that Moncada has demonstrated plus tools all around. If he works out as hoped, he is a tremendous all around player adding value on the bases and on defense that Devers just won't bring. But at this point it doesn't look like he is the pure natural hitter that Devers is (especially with the K rate). The way the body fools people is that scouts will often project athleticism onto guys with the body when they haven't shown it. Like Gabe Kapler not being able to hit for power, there is often a discrepancy between appearance and ability. And Devers definitely got unfairly dinged on his defensive upside due to his body, but I think we all agree he doesn't look like a plus-plus defender in the future, more like an average one.

 

[shaggydog2000]

The shit that is happening when the ball leaves his bat is impressive. But the look on the kids face as he's digging in against Chapman down a run in the ninth is unbelievable. He literally looks like he's stepping in for a round of BP, and he's 20. It's mind blowing the composure and level of calm he's had in big at bats so far. Plus it was a friggin 1-2 count. He's taking a hack like that in a 1-2 count against 103? It's unreal. And yes, that swing in the 10th was just as good.

In the dugout afterwards was even better. He had this look on his face like "yeah, of course that just happened, good at bat." Not shocked or overly excited at all. It was just a good hit in a Sunday game.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I have watched it a hundred times and I still, I just can't understand how he hit it, let alone hit it out. The ball was 103 MPH just below the letters on the inner part of the plate... and he hits it square the other way to 430 feet. I still just don't get it. I have literally never seen someone take such a hard pitch, on the inner part, 430 the other way.

The BEST you can do with that pitch is bloop it over the SS. That's the very best you can possibly do and this child hits it 430. The talent... I mean I don't know who else in the game can do that. Maybe like 3-5 guys? Maybe? At most?

 

[bosockboy]

I've thought for 2 years now that he was the club's best chance to actually get an eventual LHH successor to Big Papi. There have signs since he was in the DSL that suggested legit Miguel Cabrera upside, although mostly that was documented on the scouting side rather than in the stats.

But no way did I expect him to be so good against such good MLB pitching so soon.

I've been afraid to say it, but since you did....he feels like a 20 year old Miggy ala 2003.

 

[MikeM]

As generally pessimistic as I tend to be, I probably have to go as far back as Nomar to remember myself being this genuinely excited about one of our own young guys hitting the scene.

That power is going to make for a very memorable 6 years.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

The way the body fools people is that scouts will often project athleticism onto guys with the body when they haven't shown it.

Yep, and subtract it when they have shown it (viz. chubby Draymond Green at Michigan State, who got ragged as a prospect for not having potential as an NBA defender, despite being a stud on both ends of the floor for Izzo). I have seen nearly enough of Devers on D to weigh in, but at 3B one of the most important physical tools you can have is elite hand-eye coordination, and man, Devers sure seems to have that.

 

[Marciano490]

There is also the fact that Moncada has demonstrated plus tools all around. If he works out as hoped, he is a tremendous all around player adding value on the bases and on defense that Devers just won't bring. But at this point it doesn't look like he is the pure natural hitter that Devers is (especially with the K rate). The way the body fools people is that scouts will often project athleticism onto guys with the body when they haven't shown it. Like Gabe Kapler not being able to hit for power, there is often a discrepancy between appearance and ability. And Devers definitely got unfairly dinged on his defensive upside due to his body, but I think we all agree he doesn't look like a plus-plus defender in the future, more like an average one.

I'd assume a part of it is also using body as proxy for hard work and dedication. The ripped dude looks like he cares more.

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

I have watched it a hundred times and I still, I just can't understand how he hit it, let alone hit it out. The ball was 103 MPH just below the letters on the inner part of the plate... and he hits it square the other way to 430 feet. I still just don't get it. I have literally never seen someone take such a hard pitch, on the inner part, 430 the other way.

The BEST you can do with that pitch is bloop it over the SS. That's the very best you can possibly do and this child hits it 430. The talent... I mean I don't know who else in the game can do that. Maybe like 3-5 guys? Maybe? At most?

Yup, 430 oppo facing...
1. Up and In
2. L on L
3. 103
4. 1-2 count
Shouldn't be able to do that in any one of those 4 situations above, yet he did it in all of them. It's just off the charts hard to comprehend.

 

[shaggydog2000]

I'd assume a part of it is also using body as proxy for hard work and dedication. The ripped dude looks like he cares more.

I'm sure that is a factor too. But if this kid keeps doing what he is doing, he's in perfect shape for his job.

 

[Norm loves Vera]

ESPN Stats & Info‏Verified account @ESPNStatsInfo 31m31 minutes ago


Rafael Devers homered off of a 102.8 MPH Aroldis Chapman fastball last night, the fastest pitch hit for a HR in the last 10 seasons.

"
Rafael Devers homered off of a 102.8 MPH Aroldis Chapman fastball last night, the fastest pitch hit for a HR in the last 10 seasons."

 

[BaseballJones]

I just want to say that major league baseball players are absolutely incredible. If we assume that, given Chapman's stride length and release point, that he threw the ball approximately 55 feet, his 102.8 mph fastball took just 0.365 seconds to get to the plate. The human eye blinks in between .300-.400 seconds, so literally, Devers had just the blink of an eye to swing. Devers squared up the pitch, which was above the belt, and crushed it about 430 feet to left-center.

But I want to say that I was equally amazed by one swing Sanchez had against Kimbrel. I mean, Kimbrel had two 98-99 mph fastballs for strikes - one a foul, and one a swing and miss. Then after a ball, Kimbrel threw a slider, not his best one but still...movement, and Sanchez fouled it off.

I just sat there thinking, how the HELL do these guys ever put the bat on the ball against these pitchers?

It makes me much more hesitant to say, "This guy sucks at hitting" when I see these pitchers, and what it takes to hit a baseball at this level. I really am in awe of these guys.

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

I've looked at the Devers HR a few more times and compared it to his swing in the 10th. His landing foot is a bit more open v Chapman, than it was in the 10th v a righty. So my thought (without pulling up a bunch of other vids) is that he either strides a bit more open on purpose against a lefty due to the ball coming from that angle. Or he did it because he ID'd the ball early as a pitch that was likely inside and he opened up to get the barrel to the ball. If its the latter, consider my mind blown. Like for good.

It just gets crazier the more I watch/think about it.

 

[Murby]

I just want to say that major league baseball players are absolutely incredible. If we assume that, given Chapman's stride length and release point, that he threw the ball approximately 55 feet, his 102.8 mph fastball took just 0.365 seconds to get to the plate. The human eye blinks in between .300-.400 seconds, so literally, Devers had just the blink of an eye to swing. Devers squared up the pitch, which was above the belt, and crushed it about 430 feet to left-center.

But I want to say that I was equally amazed by one swing Sanchez had against Kimbrel. I mean, Kimbrel had two 98-99 mph fastballs for strikes - one a foul, and one a swing and miss. Then after a ball, Kimbrel threw a slider, not his best one but still...movement, and Sanchez fouled it off.

I just sat there thinking, how the HELL do these guys ever put the bat on the ball against these pitchers?

It makes me much more hesitant to say, "This guy sucks at hitting" when I see these pitchers, and what it takes to hit a baseball at this level. I really am in awe of these guys.

This is why I love baseball. I am constantly fascinated watching guys like Pedro and Sale put a pitch exactly where they want it in a tiny little frame at insane speeds, while equally marveling at these men who manage to get a bat on it. It's quite a sport to watch when you get inside the feat.

 

[shaggydog2000]

When you watch the biathlon at the Olympics you see guys cross country skiing as hard as they can, then lowering their heart rate below what mine is at resting and then shooting targets better than I could ever imagine. Or in the summer games, throwing a javelin from one end of a track to the other. Or lifting weights that just look like they would break me. Human beings are amazing, and top level athletes have been thoroughly selected for the traits they need. That is why Prince Fielder or CC Sabathia can be obese, and the worst selection you could possibly make to be a distance runner, yet be amazingly good for a period of time at Baseball. Being a perfect athlete is impossible, but being perfect for your sport is a completely different thing. I think pitching accurately and hitting a moving baseball are so incredibly specialized, and that is why the failure rate for players in the minors is so high.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Yup, 430 oppo facing...
1. Up and In
2. L on L
3. 103
4. 1-2 count
Shouldn't be able to do that in any one of those 4 situations above, yet he did it in all of them. It's just off the charts hard to comprehend.

He's always had plus raw power. The question was always "Will he get to it in games?" At this point, that seems like a pretty good bet to make. He has a beautiful left handed swing that is perfect for generating lots of line drives and getting the ball to come off the bat at a launch angle that is good for the HR/FB rate. It generates plenty of backspin which is part of why the power looks so easy. The ball jumps off the bat because he's strong and has a knack for squaring the ball up, and it carries further than we might expect on contact because of that backspin.

He's going to be a really good hitter.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I've looked at the Devers HR a few more times and compared it to his swing in the 10th. His landing foot is a bit more open v Chapman, than it was in the 10th v a righty. So my thought (without pulling up a bunch of other vids) is that he either strides a bit more open on purpose against a lefty due to the ball coming from that angle. Or he did it because he ID'd the ball early as a pitch that was likely inside and he opened up to get the barrel to the ball. If its the latter, consider my mind blown. Like for good.

It just gets crazier the more I watch/think about it.

It's really nuts. There's a fair amount of luck, obviously, but to put himself in position to hit a 1-2 pitch that well is pretty amazing.

The thing about it is that he isn't completely locked in on the fastball, I don't think. It's hard to tell from just watching the replay from behind the pitcher and a sports science that shows where the ball was when he starts the bat forward would be cool, but at least from the way it looks, it seems like he gives himself a split second for pitch recognition. Now, obviously, if Chapman had thrown a change up, he would have looked silly unless he held up and the best he could have hoped for was a foul tip. But even so, it doesn't look to me like he's completely locked on a fastball. In fact, he's a little late. He's not trying to go oppo against Chapman, obviously, but that's the result from giving himself that extra beat. That he gets the bat into the contact area on a 103 mph fastball and, if I'm right, wasn't sitting dead red suggests an incredible amount of bat speed.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I have watched it a hundred times and I still, I just can't understand how he hit it, let alone hit it out. The ball was 103 MPH just below the letters on the inner part of the plate... and he hits it square the other way to 430 feet. I still just don't get it. I have literally never seen someone take such a hard pitch, on the inner part, 430 the other way.

The BEST you can do with that pitch is bloop it over the SS. That's the very best you can possibly do and this child hits it 430. The talent... I mean I don't know who else in the game can do that. Maybe like 3-5 guys? Maybe? At most?

Agree. With the ball well into the inner half of the plate, what, 6 inches or so from the inner edge, he had to have pulled his hands in to barrel up the ball, or he couldn't have possibly hit it that far. But how did he have time to do that with Chapman throwing 103. Maybe he cheated and saw Sanchez setting up on the inner half?

Looking at it again, he did (of course) pull his hands in and probably would have pulled the ball if it wasn't going so fast. Whatever, it was f***ing gone no matter what part of the park he hit it.

 

[jtn46]

The shit that is happening when the ball leaves his bat is impressive. But the look on the kids face as he's digging in against Chapman down a run in the ninth is unbelievable. He literally looks like he's stepping in for a round of BP, and he's 20. It's mind blowing the composure and level of calm he's had in big at bats so far. Plus it was a friggin 1-2 count. He's taking a hack like that in a 1-2 count against 103? It's unreal. And yes, that swing in the 10th was just as good.

Yeah noticed this too as it was happening, like even if this kid K's the last thing he looks is intimidated, meanwhile Chapman is drenched in sweat ahead in the count against a 20-year old rookie.

Fascinating turn not only because of how impressive that homer was, but because in an outing where Chapman looked uncharacteristically filthy against us, the narrative in NY flips to how he shouldn't be closing.

 

[Rough Carrigan]

I wonder if he's gonna get a little bit of the treatment George Brett got after crushing a 98 mph Gossage pitch for a homer to essentially close out the 1980 ALCS. Before that, Brett was known as a terrific hitter who could really hit a fastball, but that blast put an exclamation point on the directive "Do not throw this guy a fastball!". Yes, Devers is just a rookie but teams scout and seeing that the kid hit the fastest pitch ever taken out of the park is likely to be noted and the response to it is pretty predictable.

 

[chrisfont9]

Fangraphs has a nice analysis of how he adjusted his front foot as he figured out how to speed up to a 102mph delivery.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-watch-rafael-devers-take-aroldis-chapman-deep/

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Fangraphs has a nice analysis of how he adjusted his front foot as he figured out how to speed up to a 102mph delivery.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-watch-rafael-devers-take-aroldis-chapman-deep/

This is a fantastic read. My favorite paragraph:

Moments passed. Willis looked elsewhere as reality dawned. How to coach pitching when rookies are going yard against one hundred and three? For a fleeting instant, the future of baseball revealed itself. Willis mulled his next chapter. The present one is doomed.