Yup. Some of what is going on here is a kind of eye test bias (to coin a phrase that isn't all that helpful or explanatorily useful), I think: a lot of Olynyk does well is very subtle but hugely important. Moves his feet so he doesn't get beat on the perimeter, draws bigs out of the paint so guards who otherwise wouldn't be able to finish around bigs can, positions himself well to help on defense, and is an excellent passer. Olynyk has worked very hard to get better, especially on the defensive end, and if you're paying any kind of attention, it shows.
Which is why I asked for a height breakdown because it is misleading. It's not really any more misleading than limiting to the C position in today's NBA though. Outside of last year, Olynyk is basically a .350 shooter. .351, .349, .405, .357. One of those things is not like the other. Maybe he's an elite shooting "C" but where does he rank among stretch bigs during that time? Where does he rank this year? He's behind Jerebko and Amir on his own team.
I don't think limiting to C is misleading because it's harder to find someone who can shoot while also defending and forcing defense from the opposing C. It's a huge value to play a full 5 out, Olynyk is a very different player than someone like Jerebko who is closer to a 3 than a 5, and is often guarded by the opponent's 3. Amir isn't the kind of volume shooter from 3 that Olynyk is, so teams rarely if ever extend the defense out (one reason his slow shot gets off).
On what planet is Amir a better 3-point shooter than KO? Are you just looking at 3P%? By that standard, Amir is a better 3-point shooter than Steph Curry too.
Seriously. Amir has less attempts than he has games played. Defenders treat him like he's Hassan Whiteside on the perimeter because he shot 25%~ last year.
If a player shoots 35% from 3-point range, does it matter whether he does so with "consistency," as opposed to shooting 50% during hot stretches and 20% during equally long cold stretches? I get that the latter is more frustrating to watch, but I'm not sure it hurts the team's chances to win. (Well, it does in games when the player is "cold," but it seems like that would be offset by the added chance of winning games when the player is "hot.")
Not talking about percentage totals. Talking about the player you get night in night out. One night he'll look great ("playing with confidence") and the next he's totally useless. KO will bounce around the league until he becomes consistent.
I just included Amir because combined with Jerebko, they take as many 3 pointers as Olynyk. If you want to give him credit for volume, fine. Otherwise he's not much different than Bobby Portis, Myles Turner and a shit ton of other guys as far as 3 point shooting goes.
When a lot of your value comes from hitting 3 pointers, you are going to look useless when your shot isn't falling and great when it does.
It's not just the 3FG with him, though. When he's playing well you get the passing, the short game, the put backs and some energy. When he's off, usually everything is off and he's not usable in any department.
That's an interesting take. Of KO's two strengths (defense and 3-point shooting), you would expect the defense to be solid night-in and night-out, unless there's an effort/attitude problem.
Since the all star break, he's at 17.3mpg and 3.7 personal fouls. It's probably hard to be very effective on defense when you're in constant foul trouble. At least that's the old adage, because you can't be as aggressive. Maybe when his shot isn't falling, he presses on the other end which leads to fouls.
Season averages (57 games)
Here ya go:
Makes him look a bit better. That % is higher than I thought it would be though. 2009 was quite a shooting year.Here ya go:
As before however, this omits attempts, which have in fact doubled over this time.
Amir has to have the slowest 3-point realease the NBA has ever seen, at least among guys who can hit the shot with any reliability when they do get it off.
With 3 point shooting, how much of it is opportunity and system? Chances are, if you play in Boston, GS or Houston you are going to be shooting more 3s than if you play for Chicago, Indiana or Minnesota. You are talking 820+ more 3 point attempts throughout the season for those teams. It's kind of a huge detail to ignore.
Teams like GS, Houston and Cleveland all shoot a ton of 3's and manage to make a non shooting big work (Bogut/Mcgee, Thompson, Capela/Nene). I don't see why we can't. Of course if you have a guy who can rebound, block shots and shoot the three, so much the better. Not many of those guys though.
I don't disagree. I just think that adding a guy who is a plus rebounder and shot blocker, even if he can't shoot the three, could still work for this team.
Give Stevens a Lebron, Harden or Curry and he'd likely make a non-shooting big work as well. Instead Stevens is currently trying to get the most of a 5-9 Thomas who needs the space to create his magic. Doesn't seem hard to understand.
With IT4 and Marcus Smart, it's hard. You want spacing for both and having a big who can't shoot on the court with Marcus Smart would cause issues. Nevermind a big who can't shoot on the court with Smart and IT4.
4/60 will be a good win for Danny to keep Olynk at. I would be happy to pencil that in right now. As long as Kelly waits until we see if we have a shot at Hayward so his cap hold is less, not much though, until he actually inks the contract.
That's what guys like Biyombo got. Maybe Olynyk gets closer to 4/75 or 4/80, I dunno. Even if it is a good deal, fans will hate it largely because mediocrity gets paid in the NBA because LeBron James can't be paid what he's worth. The economics of the NBA are far different than any other sport. Granted, Olynyk is the type of guy who is going to be hated by whatever team that signs him, not just Boston. He's average at best and the only thing he does that shows up in the boxscore is shoot threes. The casual fan isn't going to talk about his help defense.
When you made this post it was .338 vs .357. Since, Lopez has gone 17/35 while Olynyk has gone 3-10. Lopez now has the edge in percentage and volume. Considering he's the Nets primary scoring option as well... My main point is sample size is so small that a .338 is comparable to a .357. Also, at that time, Curry was shooting .399. You rounded .338 down to .330, rounded .399 down to .390 and rounded .357 up to .360. I get you want to make your argument stronger, but come on.
This is fair but Steph also gets 3-4 times the volume Olynyk gets. Kelly Olynyk is 245-666 .368 for his career. If he was 235-666, his career mark would be at the .353 he's at this year. Curry has taken more 3 point shots this year than Olynyk has in his career. Olynyk has averaged 2.5 3 pointers a game for his career. This year he's at 2.6. He's not some huge volume guy relative to the rest of the NBA. He is 9th among centers in 3s per game and of the 8 in front of him, only Kaminsky and Hamilton have a worse percentage. His 167 attempts is 7th among centers. If you add PFs, he's 32nd in attempts. He is 146th in the league overall. We have 5 guys on the Celtics averaging considerably more attempts per game with Gerald Green and Terry Rozier putting up about the same volume. Only 14 centers have averaged more than 1 3 pointer a game so if you limit it to just centers, he comes out really well. When you expand it to PF, he comes out looking average.
5/$65m for a backup big??? Those are the moves other teams make......Ainge has never paid big money for reserves or marginal starters on the downside based solely on production (Raef, Theo, Amir and Zeller's contracts were trade assets not production assets). Posey, Perkins, Rondo, even Tony Allen (who I HATED to see go), Sullinger.......he has a long track record of low-cost value players on his second unit, most while still on rookie deals. Even when we were contenders Posey was dirt cheap coming off an awful year, Eddie House was a journeyman vagabond, Baby and Powe young'uns, while PJ Brown and Cassell were cheap pickups.
