Do we need another starter?

[chawson]

The FO is in a precarious spot regarding the 2018 rotation. A rotation of Sale/Price/Pom/Porcello/EdRod is excellent, but with Price’s two DL stints for scary arm injuries and EdRod’s recurring knee problems (and surgery), it would seem we’d need a legit major league starter as a #6 to enter the season.

Of course, no decent FA would sign knowing as a #6, and the ones that would might not be worth rostering. And anyone we’d acquire would have to accept the role. Steven Wright’s 2016 would fit perfectly, but who knows if he’s still that guy.

The way I see it, the options are:

— Trade for a starter (guys like McCarthy, Ryu, Hammel, Travis Wood, Garza, Iwakuma)
— Sign a scrap heap FA (Colon, Jesse Chavez, Buchholz, et al.)
— Look in-house (Wright, Johnson, Velazquez, Elias, Beeks)
— Trade for a failed starter and convert him to a multi-inning reliever/swingman (hoping for someone like Brad Peacock)

Thoughts?

 

[Devizier]

If the Red Sox trawl the scrap heap -- probably their best option if they need to add emergency depth -- Anibal Sanchez is available. He shouldn't take anything more than a minor league contract if he wants to keep playing.

 

[simplicio]

Where's my Ohtani option?

Also not sure what Brian Johnson's status is, isn't he out of options?

 

[sean1562]

what about Doug Fister?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

what about Doug Fister?

I'm guessing he priced himself out of our range with his performance here. Kinda like Rich Hill.

 

[sean1562]

I'm guessing he priced himself out of our range with his performance here. Kinda like Rich Hill.

His overall stat line, even with the Red Sox, is not terribly impressive. But he could feel like he is worth more than just a shot at a rotation spot, and may be able to find that with a worse team somewhere else. Do you think he is worth a major league contract?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

His overall stat line, even with the Red Sox, is not terribly impressive. But he could feel like he is worth more than just a shot at a rotation spot, and may be able to find that with a worse team somewhere else. Do you think he is worth a major league contract?

I think so. He showed he was healthy and had a career high K rate (and walk rate) over 90 innings. There will be some team looking to fill their rotation with a cheap vet like Fister. I really have no clue what his value is, but I have an extremely hard time believing he would be forced to accept a minor league contract.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Where's my Ohtani option?

Also not sure what Brian Johnson's status is, isn't he out of options?

He is, as is Henry Owens.

They both will be lucky to be NRI to spring training.

I expect we'll see 2 guys we've heard of signed to minor league deals with May 1 opt outs

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I expect we'll see 2 guys we've heard of signed to minor league deals with May 1 opt outs

Yes, this is what they’ll do. Mostly because no FA is going to sign here when the rotation is already loaded for bear 1-6.

And then, when neither re-tread does work out, should the Sox still need a 5th starter due to multiple long-term injuries, they’ll use Velazquez and/or pick someone like Fister off the scrap heap during the season.

Sale
Price
Porcello
Pomeranz
Rodriguez
Wright

There are very, very few MLB teams who wouldn’t swap out their top-6 for Boston’s. And sure, multiple injuries could strike at the same time. But it’s still an enviable position and one that doesn’t warrant much, if any, serious investigative effort to address this offseason, especially when compared to the demonstrated need for an impact bat.

 

[chawson]

I’m not sure we could luck into another Doug Fister. OTOH, Fister really only had one good month.

Jason Hammel (KC) and Brandon McCarthy (LAD) are both in the final years of their contracts, each making $9M (with 2019 options). They’re both guys with strong numbers their first time through the order, and rough ones the second and beyond.

$9M is too much for a #6, but there are creative ways to acquire that guy. It’s a long shot, but I’m interested in trading one of Pom or Porcello while swinging a deal for Danny Duffy (4/$60M), taking on Hammel’s guaranteed money to mitigate the prospect cost.

 

[tonyarmasjr]

Yes, this is what they’ll do. Mostly because no FA is going to sign here when the rotation is already loaded for bear 1-6.

And then, when neither re-tread does work out, should the Sox still need a 5th starter due to multiple long-term injuries, they’ll use Velazquez and/or pick someone like Fister off the scrap heap during the season.

Sale
Price
Porcello
Pomeranz
Rodriguez
Wright

There are very, very few MLB teams who wouldn’t swap out their top-6 for Boston’s. And sure, multiple injuries could strike at the same time. But it’s still an enviable position and one that doesn’t warrant much, if any, serious investigative effort to address this offseason, especially when compared to the demonstrated need for an impact bat.

This. They'll be looking for a #8 starter, not a #6. Velazquez is the current #7. We already have the "legit major league starter as a #6" the OP is looking for in Wright. And our #7 was pretty successful in both AAA and MLB last year. There's no room for another MLB contract (either in payroll or roster space), and Velazquez is as good or better as anybody they'll sign on a ml deal.

 

[chawson]

This. They'll be looking for a #8 starter, not a #6. Velazquez is the current #7. We already have the "legit major league starter as a #6" the OP is looking for in Wright. And our #7 was pretty successful in both AAA and MLB last year. There's no room for another MLB contract (either in payroll or roster space), and Velazquez is as good or better as anybody they'll sign on a ml deal.

Steven Wright is an enigma. Until June 20 of 2016 (14 starts), he posted an ERA- of 46 and a 3.33 FIP — basically a top 10 pitcher in baseball. After that, he posted an ERA- of 127 (over 10 starts), one of the worst marks in the league. Last year, he was clearly hurt.

He's 33, and out of options.

 

[sean1562]

I Would like to see Wright and Velazquez get every opportunity. HEctor had that atrocious first start but deserves a few more opportunities.

 

[simplicio]

It would worry me to have Velazquez do more than ride the shuttle for a couple starts. He strikes me, based on his in season and spring training starts, as someone who really has trouble fooling anyone the second time through the order. Much more comfortable with him in a long relief role.

 

[tonyarmasjr]

Steven Wright is an enigma. Until June 20 of 2016 (14 starts), he posted an ERA- of 46 and a 3.33 FIP — basically a top 10 pitcher in baseball. After that, he posted an ERA- of 127 (over 10 starts), one of the worst marks in the league. Last year, he was clearly hurt.

He's 33, and out of options.

Or...he posted those numbers you cite through June 20. Then, he posted an ERA- of 115 over 8 starts, with that small sample skewed heavily by a 4.2 IP/8 ER start. He gave up 3, 4, 5, 3, 1, 3, and 0 ER in the other 7 starts. Since then, he's been clearly hurt, Your cherry-picked stats don't prove him as an enigma - though he is something of the sort for other reasons. He was better than expected in 2016, but he is clearly not the 46 ERA- pitcher. He is, however, the nominal 6th starter going into 2018, with previous success at the ML level which justifies giving him the opportunity to hold down the 5th rotation slot to start the season. There's no ML FA who is going to sign a make-good deal that affords them only a month of starts until Rodriguez is back. And even if there were, that month would probably cost more than Wright's entire season. There is no ml FA who can reasonably be expected to be better than Wright (or Velazquez, for that matter). There is no point in trading for an additional starter, when the rotation is already filled once Rodriguez returns. They already are going to make decisions on Wright and Johnson, since they don't have enough room for guys without options. It's not possible to carry 6+ above average, stretched out ML starters on the 25 man, no matter how nice that would be.

 

[chawson]

Or...he posted those numbers you cite through June 20. Then, he posted an ERA- of 115 over 8 starts, with that small sample skewed heavily by a 4.2 IP/8 ER start. He gave up 3, 4, 5, 3, 1, 3, and 0 ER in the other 7 starts. Since then, he's been clearly hurt, Your cherry-picked stats don't prove him as an enigma - though he is something of the sort for other reasons. He was better than expected in 2016, but he is clearly not the 46 ERA- pitcher. He is, however, the nominal 6th starter going into 2018, with previous success at the ML level which justifies giving him the opportunity to hold down the 5th rotation slot to start the season. There's no ML FA who is going to sign a make-good deal that affords them only a month of starts until Rodriguez is back. And even if there were, that month would probably cost more than Wright's entire season. There is no ml FA who can reasonably be expected to be better than Wright (or Velazquez, for that matter). There is no point in trading for an additional starter, when the rotation is already filled once Rodriguez returns. They already are going to make decisions on Wright and Johnson, since they don't have enough room for guys without options. It's not possible to carry 6+ above average, stretched out ML starters on the 25 man, no matter how nice that would be.

So what do you do if Price gets shut down in spring training again?

 

[sean1562]

Nothing would make me happier than Steven Wright coming back, being healthy, and throwing up an ERA between 3.60-4.00. If he could somehow establish himself as a solid 4-5 again, that would do wonders for the roster construction of this team moving forward. I would be thrilled if he turned into Tim Wakefield 2.0. His performance was one of my favorite things about the 2016 season.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

So what do you do if Price gets shut down in spring training again?

You do the exact same thing that 29 other MLB teams do when their #2 goes down: you give another pitcher the ball every 5th day, who probably won’t be as good. And then you hope for some luck and a bunch of runs. And you hope the other 4 starters step it up themselves.

This is baseball, not college football. No team is going to go undefeated.

Wright already has a stretch of history pitching better than Price against MLB hitters for an extended period (the first ten weeks of 2016). Brian Johnson threw a better single game last year than any EdRo has ever thrown (his no-hitter!).

I mean, in MLB The Show 2018 or whatever it might be cool making your trade idea happen, as you mentioned above. But DDski hasn’t stated any indication that he’s even considering overhauling the rotation such as you suggested. Every sign points to him being very happy with the guys he’s got already.

 

[chawson]

You do the exact same thing that 29 other MLB teams do when their #2 goes down: you give another pitcher the ball every 5th day, who probably won’t be as good. And then you hope for some luck and a bunch of runs. And you hope the other 4 starters step it up themselves.

This is baseball, not college football. No team is going to go undefeated.

Wright already has a stretch of history pitching better than Price against MLB hitters for an extended period (the first ten weeks of 2016). Brian Johnson threw a better single game last year than any EdRo has ever thrown (his no-hitter!).

I mean, in MLB The Show 2018 or whatever it might be cool making your trade idea happen, as you mentioned above. But DDski hasn’t stated any indication that he’s even considering overhauling the rotation such as you suggested. Every sign points to him being very happy with the guys he’s got already.

I admire your confidence.

This board realizes anew every spring that you can't have enough starting pitching. We were very confident last year — what happened? Sale faded, losing a ton of break on his slider when it mattered most. Price missed long stretches with serious arm injuries and didn't start a game after July. Porcello regressed to worse than he was in 2015. Pomeranz had a nice year but also faded in September, losing 5mph of velocity (and mysteriously abandoning his cutter). EdRod is recovering from the same injury he had 12 months ago. Wright will at least be post-surgery, but he needs to be 100% or else he's completely unplayable. We clearly needed more help than signing Kyle Kendrick to a minor league contract could provide, and we're in an even more vulnerable spot than last year. If Price needs surgery in mid-April, then our rotation is suddenly Sale/Pom/Porcello/Wright/Velazquez. Bulldozers.

Selling high on Pom isn't an original idea (there's nobody else to sell high on). I guess it's good information that it sounds like a video game trade to absorb veteran salary as a way of acquiring a young pitcher with upside on a terrible Royals team, but I think it's a good way to use our financial heft.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Umm, wazzat happened last season?

We were very confident last year. And then, despite all the negative stuff you mentioned, the Red Sox won the AL East primarily because of awesome starting pitching.

 

[chawson]

Umm, wazzat happened last season?

We were very confident last year. And then, despite all the negative stuff you mentioned, the Red Sox won the AL East primarily because of awesome starting pitching.

Cuz we lucked a two-win season out of a junkyard Doug Fister.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Cuz we lucked a two-win season out of a junkyard Doug Fister.

So you cite bad luck events as the foreseeable reasons to anticipate future problems which therefore require sweeping changes be made now. Then you poo-poo good luck events as non-repeatable one-offs, despite Hill (2015), Wright (2016), and Fister (2017) all giving the Sox unexpectedly good seasons as the #6+ option headed into spring training.

Are you able to recognize the logical inconsistency of trying to make your argument this way?

I think you’d be better served saying: “both Pomeranz and Porcello remind me of tall snotty frat bros and I want to karate chop each of them in their Adam’s apple. Here’s how I suggest DDski get them the hell off of my favorite team...”

And frankly, I’m trying to say this in a way you understand I not judging you for wanting to make such a trade, because even after 2013 I still want to karate chop John Lackey right in the Adam’s apple.

That being said, DDski is not going to overhaul the starting rotation. It’s just not happening; it doesn’t need to happen; and frankly, it really shouldn’t happen regardless what ends up going wrong next season.

 

[tonyarmasjr]

I admire your confidence.

This board realizes anew every spring that you can't have enough starting pitching. We were very confident last year — what happened? Sale faded, losing a ton of break on his slider when it mattered most. Price missed long stretches with serious arm injuries and didn't start a game after July. Porcello regressed to worse than he was in 2015. Pomeranz had a nice year but also faded in September, losing 5mph of velocity (and mysteriously abandoned his cutter). EdRod is recovering from the same injury he had 12 months ago. Wright will at least be post-surgery, but he needs to be 100% or else he's completely unplayable. We clearly needed more help than signing Kyle Kendrick to a minor league contract could provide, and we're in an even more vulnerable spot than last year. If Price needs surgery in mid-April, then our rotation is suddenly Sale/Pom/Porcello/Wright/Velazquez. Bulldozers.

Selling high on Pom isn't an original idea (there's nobody else to sell high on). I guess it's good information that it sounds like a video game trade to absorb veteran salary as a way of acquiring a young pitcher with upside on a terrible Royals team, but I think it's a good way to use our financial heft.

Yes, starting pitching depth is important. And, yes, there are legitimate questions about the six guys who will start 2018 as the Red Sox starters. But you can't stockpile starting pitchers on ML contracts. 5 is the number. We actually get the "luxury" of starting the season with 6, since Rodriguez will be on the DL. The depth behind the top 5 is typically made up of prospects who have options, AAAA filler, guys coming off injuries or terrible seasons looking for a chance to crack the rotation after signing a ml deal, and maybe one swing/long man. Having a #6 who is a bona fide ML starter on a ML contract isn't really a thing. Your proposed situation of trading 1 SP for 2 SP is great, but the odd man out of the rotation can't remain stretched out to start while also being used out of the bullpen. Even when transitioning a long-man, teams still typically like to give them a couple AAA starts to get stretched out when forced into the rotation.

Trading high on Pomeranz is a defensible position (though I'm not for it). The only way to improve on any of the rotation spots is by trading away a guy currently sitting in one (...since carrying 6+ good ML SPs is not possible). But I don't see a trade that upgrades the upside of any of those guys: three of them have been CY-caliber in the recent past, and the other two have looked like #2s. Rodriguez has seen the least sustained success at that level, but he's the youngest and cost-controlled. No, we shouldn't expect that performance from all of them, but are you willing to trade one for a #3/4-type innings eater with no question marks (also, who is that?).

Additionally, the specific trade you propose doesn't make sense. Duffy is a month younger than Pomeranz and six days younger than Porcello. He isn't young, has topped 155 IP once in his career (179 in 2016), doesn't have a track record that points to him being demonstrably better than either of the guys you want to trade for him, and capped his season with elbow surgery. And your problem with 33 year old Steven Wright is his 127 ERA- over 10 starts, but you want to replace him with 35 year old Jason Hammel and his full-season 119 ERA-. And pay him $8 million more.

 

[chawson]

Yes, starting pitching depth is important. And, yes, there are legitimate questions about the six guys who will start 2018 as the Red Sox starters. But you can't stockpile starting pitchers on ML contracts. 5 is the number. We actually get the "luxury" of starting the season with 6, since Rodriguez will be on the DL. The depth behind the top 5 is typically made up of prospects who have options, AAAA filler, guys coming off injuries or terrible seasons looking for a chance to crack the rotation after signing a ml deal, and maybe one swing/long man. Having a #6 who is a bona fide ML starter on a ML contract isn't really a thing. Your proposed situation of trading 1 SP for 2 SP is great, but the odd man out of the rotation can't remain stretched out to start while also being used out of the bullpen. Even when transitioning a long-man, teams still typically like to give them a couple AAA starts to get stretched out when forced into the rotation.

Trading high on Pomeranz is a defensible position (though I'm not for it). The only way to improve on any of the rotation spots is by trading away a guy currently sitting in one (...since carrying 6+ good ML SPs is not possible). But I don't see a trade that upgrades the upside of any of those guys: three of them have been CY-caliber in the recent past, and the other two have looked like #2s. Rodriguez has seen the least sustained success at that level, but he's the youngest and cost-controlled. No, we shouldn't expect that performance from all of them, but are you willing to trade one for a #3/4-type innings eater with no question marks (also, who is that?).

Additionally, the specific trade you propose doesn't make sense. Duffy is a month younger than Pomeranz and six days younger than Porcello. He isn't young, has topped 155 IP once in his career (179 in 2016), doesn't have a track record that points to him being demonstrably better than either of the guys you want to trade for him, and capped his season with elbow surgery. And your problem with 33 year old Steven Wright is his 127 ERA- over 10 starts, but you want to replace him with 35 year old Jason Hammel and his full-season 119 ERA-. And pay him $8 million more.

Last year, the Dodgers had a starting rotation of Kershaw, Hill, Maeda, Alex Wood, Ryu, McCarthy, and Urias. They had Kazmir under contract working his way back from the DL and also added Yu Darvish at the deadline.

Part of that was taking advantage of new DL rules, and part of it was strategically managing their chronically injured staff to stay healthy late in the season.

The Astros had Keuchel, McCullers, Morton, Fiers, McHugh, Peacock, and Musgrove, and traded for Verlander. They also had Devenski as a multi-inning relief specialist.

The game is changing. Hammel seemed interesting because he can start, but also seems to fall apart after the first time through the order. That has value. There are guys we can sign like that (Jaime Garcia is similar), but they might want starting jobs.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Last year, the Dodgers had a starting rotation of Kershaw, Hill, Maeda, Alex Wood, Ryu, McCarthy, and Urias. They had Kazmir under contract working his way back from the DL and also added Yu Darvish at the deadline.

And yet they lost the World Series to the Astros who had to put Brad Peacock on the mound for 21 starts. There are a lot of ways to succeed in a given season. More starting pitching depth is obviously preferable to less, but throwing the Dodgers out as an example of what works ignores the wide spectrum of approaches that can win.

The Astros started the year with Keuchel, McCullers, Morton, Fiers and Musgrove. They probably would have sold their first borns to swap rotations with the Red Sox in March.

 

[jon abbey]

And yet they lost the World Series to the Astros who had to put Brad Peacock on the mound for 21 starts.

I don't understand this sentence. Brad Peacock was really good this year, 10-2 with a 3.22 ERA in those 21 starts, and a 1.77 ERA in 20 additional innings of relief.

 

[tonyarmasjr]

Last year, the Dodgers had a starting rotation of Kershaw, Hill, Maeda, Alex Wood, Ryu, McCarthy, and Urias. They had Kazmir under contract working his way back from the DL and also added Yu Darvish at the deadline.

Part of that was taking advantage of new DL rules, and part of it was strategically managing their chronically injured staff to stay healthy late in the season.

The Astros had Keuchel, McCullers, Morton, Fiers, McHugh, Peacock, and Musgrove, and traded for Verlander. They also had Devenski as a multi-inning relief specialist.

The game is changing. Hammel seemed interesting because he can start, but also seems to fall apart after the first time through the order. That has value. There are guys we can sign like that (Jaime Garcia is similar), but they might want starting jobs.

You're right on the Dodgers - with their $240M 25-man Opening Day payroll, they carried 6 starters on ML contracts through the season. Kazmir spent the season on the DL and Urias had options.

The Astros started with McHugh on the DL for an extended period - hence the need for another starter; Musgrove had options. This does not fit the argument you're making.

There's a world of difference between starting the season with 6 healthy SPs you can't send to the minors and using guys who can ride the shuttle or adding a pitcher at the deadline, when you're in the throes of the dog days and will expand rosters in a month.

 

[sean1562]

Rick Porcello is just as likely to repeat his Cy Young season as Brad Peacock is to sustain his success from last year. Mike Fiers is not good, I would not be surprised if Steven Wright was better than him next year. I feel like "the game is changing" is said after every season, taking what happened to work with the WS winner from last year and trying to apply it as some new dogma for guaranteeing championships.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I don't understand this sentence. Brad Peacock was really good this year, 10-2 with a 3.22 ERA in those 21 starts, and a 1.77 ERA in 20 additional innings of relief.

He threw only 31.2 innings of 5.17 FIP baseball last year. Coming into the season, no one thought he'd be a key component of the Astros run to a title this year. In fact, there were was plenty of discussion about how they needed to trade for Quintana after Sale went to the Red Sox because of how thin their rotation was.

 

[jon abbey]

Oh, I see. I think the part people are overlooking is that HOU's analytics team is pulling more out of pitchers than one might expect, Charlie Morton is a better example than Peacock and even Verlander said his slider got better after the HOU analytics people showed him what he was doing wrong. His numbers with HOU took a huge jump from DET, same with Morton, same with Peacock.

 

[PapaSox]

Just Alex Cobb.

 

[mauidano]

Doug Fister, we hardly knew ye. Enjoy Texas.

https://www.lonestarball.com/2017/11/26/16702264/texas-rangers-rumors-doug-fister-rangers-agree-to-deal-per-reports

 

[Sampo Gida]

With E-Rod coming off significant knee surgery and not expected to be ready to start the season and Wright coming off health issues of his own the past 2 years and facing a possible suspension I thought I would bump this thread.

If JDM does not fly it seems they may have some money to spend on starting pitching depth

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Rodriguez shouldn't miss much time at the start of the season as Dombrowski expects him to return in April. There may only be need for a fifth starter two or three times in the first few weeks. Assuming the top four (Sale, Price, Pomeranz, Porcello) are healthy, they might be able to muddle through until Rodriguez is ready by using Velazquez or Johnson in the 5th spot.

But even if they did sign another starter, I doubt it would be an expensive one since it would only be a short-term need. Most likely, they'll sign a vet or two to minor league deals with a spring training invitation and see if they catch lightning in a bottle for a short time. It's doubtful that signing or not signing Martinez or any other free agent would affect that.

 

[chawson]

If we sign someone for this, I’m hoping for Jaime Garcia.

He’s my pick as the next guy to be converted to a spot start/multi-inning relief weapon, like Peacock or Devenski. He’s held hitters to minuscule production first time through the order throughout his career, including a Kershavian .257 wOBA last year. Lotta groundballs, good spin rate.

He’d probably be able to get a #4 starter job on a bad NL team, but maybe we can sell him on that role for 2/$10M or something. He’d be a comfortable fill-in if Price/Erod/Wright need time.

 

[PapaSox]

Just Alex Cobb.

I take this back ... I read he wants 4 yrs/$70 million ... I was thinking 3/$45 million.

 

[BigPapiMPD34]

Rodriguez shouldn't miss much time at the start of the season as Dombrowski expects him to return in April. There may only be need for a fifth starter two or three times in the first few weeks. Assuming the top four (Sale, Price, Pomeranz, Porcello) are healthy, they might be able to muddle through until Rodriguez is ready by using Velazquez or Johnson in the 5th spot.

But even if they did sign another starter, I doubt it would be an expensive one since it would only be a short-term need. Most likely, they'll sign a vet or two to minor league deals with a spring training invitation and see if they catch lightning in a bottle for a short time. It's doubtful that signing or not signing Martinez or any other free agent would affect that.

Take this FWIW, but I got a chance to talk to one of the well-regarded Red Sox writers at the Winter Meetings and he mentioned that the Sox expect E-Rod to be out until late April. After saying that, he also mentioned that he got the feeling the Sox were slightly underestimating this recovery time to the public. For example, the doctors might have given them a recovery timeline that would estimate his return sometime between mid-April and mid-May. Dombrowski then tells the media "April" to make it seem like no big deal, which give them a tiny bit more negotiating power if needed later on.

The good thing is, as you mentioned, we should be able to get by with guys like Wright (who the writer mentioned is not expecting a suspension), Johnson, and Velazquez. I also agree that a Fister-type minor league signing or two would be a good idea so that you can go with the hot hand in the #5 spot for a month or so.

 

[nvalvo]

Johnson is a reliever now, FYI.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Johnson is a reliever now, FYI.

That shouldn't stop them from stretching him out in spring training if they feel the need to use him as a starter in the early going.

 

[nvalvo]

That shouldn't stop them from stretching him out in spring training if they feel the need to use him as a starter in the early going.

I suppose not. But I think there's a fair chance that he's the second LHRP in the 'pen.

 

[Plympton91]

I Would like to see Wright and Velazquez get every opportunity. HEctor had that atrocious first start but deserves a few more opportunities.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=velazhe01&t=p&year=2017

Velazquez really only had a terrible first inning in that first start. After that, he was very good. To me, he was a player mismanaged by Farrell on the basis of first impressions. This guy is my sleeper pick for 2018.

 

[chawson]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=velazhe01&t=p&year=2017

Velazquez really only had a terrible first inning in that first start. After that, he was very good. To me, he was a player mismanaged by Farrell on the basis of first impressions. This guy is my sleeper pick for 2018.

I’d like to see it happen. But lefties crushed him pretty hard last year and his swinging strike rate of 7.9% would rank fifth-lowest among qualified MLB starters.

FWIW, spin rate of 1911 RPM was well below average, too.

 

[nvalvo]

I think we can all agree that Velazquez is an old master as an SP7. About as good as you can expect in that role.

Sale, Price, Pomeranz, Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright, Velazquez, Beeks, Johnson, Lakins is a pretty good ten-deep rotation, which is good, given the reliability questions we have about Price and Rodriguez.

 

[Oppo]

I would kick the tires on Alex Cobb, a Mike Leake type deal of 5/$80. 30 years old but only 700 IP. Would be a nice piece moving forward with the potential Price opt out after 2018, Pom FA after 2018, and Sale FA after 2019.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I would kick the tires on Alex Cobb, a Mike Leake type deal of 5/$80. 30 years old but only 700 IP. Would be a nice piece moving forward with the potential Price opt out after 2018, Pom FA after 2018, and Sale FA after 2019.

And what are you going to do with him, and with EdRo, and with Wright before the end of 2018?

If Price had gotten TJS last season, this would make sense. If there’s internal chatter about either EdRo or Wright’s respective knees not healing well, then maybe this would make sense.

But since the former didn’t happen, and the second isn’t apparent... why would Cobb sign here rather than somewhere he’s guaranteed an MLB rotation spot?

 

[PapaSox]

I would kick the tires on Alex Cobb, a Mike Leake type deal of 5/$80. 30 years old but only 700 IP. Would be a nice piece moving forward with the potential Price opt out after 2018, Pom FA after 2018, and Sale FA after 2019.

I could go for 5/$80. I read he is looking for 4/$70. For some reason $16 million a year I can take better the $17.5. I'm not so worried about Sale as I think we'll do everything in our power to resign him. However I think Pomeranz may not stay - its more a gut thing as he performed well last season. Price is the one that concerns me. I think he'll opt out to go to Chicago. I can actual see him taking a pay cut (annual amt for more years) to go to the Cubs. I don't think it matters how his year goes. If he does not need TJ then he'll opt out - again just a gut thing.

And what are you going to do with him, and with EdRo, and with Wright before the end of 2018?

If Price had gotten TJS last season, this would make sense. If there’s internal chatter about either EdRo or Wright’s respective knees not healing well, then maybe this would make sense.

But since the former didn’t happen, and the second isn’t apparent... why would Cobb sign here rather than somewhere he’s guaranteed an MLB rotation spot?

He may get spot starts this year but I think he'll have a full-time role following that. If the rotation is anything like last year he'll get 10 -12 starts. It may be a better idea to allow Wright and EdRo to build up from their injuries using middle & long relief with some spot starts. EdRo's knee seems to be an ongoing saga that could easily turn into a Buchholz like issue for the rotation. Wright may come back better as he throws the knuckle ball. In theory it is a lot less physical strain to throw knuckle balls if a lot harder to judge how the knuckle ball will fair.

Edit: Had to figure out how to add two quotes into the same reply - Dah!

 

[mfried]

I would kick the tires on Alex Cobb, a Mike Leake type deal of 5/$80. 30 years old but only 700 IP. Would be a nice piece moving forward with the potential Price opt out after 2018, Pom FA after 2018, and Sale FA after 2019.

I agree with the Cobb gambit. A) we would be covered for injuries and opt-outs B) Worst outcome: we have a period of 6-starter rotation. Especially with Sale’s durability in late season in mind. I would be happy to avoid facing Cobb. He’s a tough opponent.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

He may get spot starts this year but I think he'll have a full-time role following that. If the rotation is anything like last year he'll get 10 -12 starts.

I'll re-iterate the question...why is Cobb signing with a team to make "10-12 starts" and otherwise toil in the bullpen? Especially when there are teams with a full-time rotation spot out there.

And it's a foolish idea to spend $16M for a spot starter/long reliever. Not for a team already in luxury tax country.

 

[Plympton91]

I like the idea of grabbing Cobb and slotting him between Sale and Price. If you can get him for a 4-$70 deal I'd do it yesterday, that's a steal. As for what to do with Edro or Wright, Wright can be a long reliever, which he'll be anyway if Edro is healthy, and Edro can become the left-handed relief ace for a year then become a cheap replacement for Pomeranz in 2019. Or you can use Edro as part of a trade to get a cost controlled slugger for the lineup.

 

[chawson]

I think 4/$70 is not a steal for a guy who’s never pitched a full season (some of that a freak accident) and had a career worst K rate last year, but he’s fine.

If it means we can then trade one of Pom/Porcello/Edro for our next shortstop then I’m into it.

Cobb’s a Boston boy, which can’t hurt.