Draft Lottery Game Thread

MillarTime

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Just ran a my one and only sim:

Celtics
Sixers
Suns
Sixers (conveyed from Lakers)

That would make me very happy...
 

BigSoxFan

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May 31, 2007
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Just ran a my one and only sim:

Celtics
Sixers
Suns
Sixers (conveyed from Lakers)

That would make me very happy...
You want a team in your division with Simmons, Embiid, Saric and oodles of cap space to add 2 of the Ball/Jackson/Tatum/Fox group?
 

gingerbreadmann

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Just ran a my one and only sim:

Celtics
Sixers
Suns
Sixers (conveyed from Lakers)

That would make me very happy...
With the obvious caveat that any situation where we are #1 I would accept without a moment's hesitation: I don't know. It's tempting to hop on board the "Ball and the Lakers deserve each other" train. Also if this happened we may be looking at a "new" division rival shaping up rather quickly. Having two top-4 picks in this draft would be huge for the Sixers.
 

EddieYost

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What are the mechanics of this again? The real lottery happens in a back room somewhere, and the TV event is for show? Do the contestants ... errr representatives already know the outcome?
 

gingerbreadmann

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What are the mechanics of this again? The real lottery happens in a back room somewhere, and the TV event is for show? Do the contestants ... errr representatives already know the outcome?
I believe the representatives do not but someone else from each team is a witness to the drawing itself.
 

JCizzle

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Ahh the Celtics getting fucked in the lottery, a tradition like no other.
 

RedOctober3829

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What are the mechanics of this again? The real lottery happens in a back room somewhere, and the TV event is for show? Do the contestants ... errr representatives already know the outcome?

Q: So what actually happens at the draft lottery?

MZ: Fourteen ping-pong balls, numbered one to fourteen, are placed in a bin. It turns that there are exactly 1,001 possible four-ball combinations when you have a set of fourteen. Each team in the lottery has been assigned a set number of combinations of any four of the balls, for a total of 1,000 combinations. (The 1,001st combination belongs to no team.) The number of different combinations assigned to each team depends on that team's record; teams tied at the end of the regular season split evenly the total combinations allotted to their two positions, with one team getting one more combination in the event the total is odd. Then, an independent accountant, witnessed by a representative from each lottery team, draws four balls out of the bin, and whichever team is assigned that combination gets the first pick in the draft. (If it's the 1,001st combination, the balls are replaced and drawn again.) After the first pick is determined, the balls are replaced, and the process repeated. If the new combination belongs to the team that already won the first pick, the balls are replaced & drawn again. The next different team whose combination is chosen gets the second pick, and then the whole process is repeated again for the third pick. After those three picks are set, the remaining teams are set to pick in inverse order of record, with ties being broken by a drawing that was held the third week of April. The accountants mark down who gets each pick, and place a card bearing each team's logo into an envelope bearing the number of that team's pick. The envelopes are then brought out on stage, where they're opened in front of a live TV audience, at which point we all find out where each team is drafting.

http://www.nba.com/celtics/news/sidebar/2017-draft-lottery-qa

Also, to refresh everyone's memory: The Celtics have a 21.5% chance at the #1 pick, a 46.5% chance to get the #1 or #2, and a 64.3% chance of being in the top 3, and 100% in the top 4.

 

Derek's Friend

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I just ran the ESPN Sim three times and Celts got #1 each one. Please let that be a sign. I agree about being more nervous irrationally about tonight than last night. At least the C's could control last night with a good game. It's all luck tonight. Been a long couple of days at work this week.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Also if this happened we may be looking at a "new" division rival shaping up rather quickly. Having two top-4 picks in this draft would be huge for the Sixers.
It sure would present challenges to the Sixers. Identifying two top-4 picks with career threatening injuries at the top of the same draft could have them scrambling.
 

mt8thsw9th

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Fultz liked this post on Twitter yesterday. Hopefully for once in the history of the lottery, the Celtics don't get boned. Is it too much to ask for Fultz and Ayton in back-to-back drafts?

 

smastroyin

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Also, to refresh everyone's memory: The Celtics have a 21.5% chance at the #1 pick, a 46.5% chance to get the #1 or #2, and a 64.3% chance of being in the top 3, and 100% in the top 4.
This should read 25% chance of the top pick, 21.5% chance at the 2nd (hence 46.5 chance at #1 or #2)
 

gingerbreadmann

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It sure would present challenges to the Sixers. Identifying two top-4 picks with career threatening injuries at the top of the same draft could have them scrambling.
Nothing to fear. There will come a lightbulb moment when a Colangelo realizes that nothing is stopping them from snagging generational talent Harry Giles at 4.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Ahh the Celtics getting fucked in the lottery, a tradition like no other.
This draft is so deep I don't think there is any getting fucked here. They're going to have a top four pick in a deep draft and play in ECF Game 1 tomorrow night....at home. Yeah everyone wants Fultz but no complaints about snagging any of the top 4 in this draft if Danny even keeps the pick.
 

JCizzle

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This draft is so deep I don't think there is any getting fucked here. They're going to have a top four pick in a deep draft and play in ECF Game 1 tomorrow night....at home. Yeah everyone wants Fultz but no complaints about snagging any of the top 4 in this draft if Danny even keeps the pick.
Ahh I agree with that, but it will sting really wanting Fultz and landing 2 or some such nonsense like we always do. My order of preference is Fultz, Tatum, JJ, Ball - I think we need scoring instead of a pass oriented guard or another solid defender that will struggle to spread the floor (ie Marcus).
 

HomeRunBaker

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This draft is so deep I don't think there is any getting fucked here. They're going to have a top four pick in a deep draft and play in ECF Game 1 tomorrow night....at home. Yeah everyone wants Fultz but no complaints about snagging any of the top 4 in this draft if Danny even keeps the pick.
Landing at 4 tonight, or anywhere but 1, will have a significant effect on the picks trade value assuming Butler is still in play for Ainge.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Fultz liked this post on Twitter yesterday. Hopefully for once in the history of the lottery, the Celtics don't get boned. Is it too much to ask for Fultz and Ayton in back-to-back drafts?

Well mathematically it probably is too much. Even if Brooklyn lands us the best chance next year and another 25% for #1 your scenario carries a 6.25% of winning both lotteries. Were Brooklyn be "passed" by one team it drops to 5.375%.

For all the love I'd have for Ayton's game the past two seasons, the growth I've seen out of Zizic the past 18 months make me less desperate for him. I'm flat out giddy for Big Z.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I'm more nervous about tonight than I was about last night.
Tonight is way more important for the C's future than last night was.

Not just because Fultz is heads and shoulders above everyone else in the draft but also because if the 76ers get Fultz and Embiid stays healthy (along with their other assets), the 76ers will be a monster for years to come.

Jackson and Tatum and Fox will probably be good NBA players but barring injury, Fultz will be the best guy out of the lottery.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Ahh I agree with that, but it will sting really wanting Fultz and landing 2 or some such nonsense like we always do. My order of preference is Fultz, Tatum, JJ, Ball - I think we need scoring instead of a pass oriented guard or another solid defender that will struggle to spread the floor (ie Marcus).
I tend to agree. I want nothing to do with Ball and the clownshow that he brings with him.

Landing at 4 tonight, or anywhere but 1, will have a significant effect on the picks trade value assuming Butler is still in play for Ainge.
Absolutely. I guess it's just easier to swallow if it happens now than if they were the lottery team.
 

DJnVa

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I think others have said it, but if we get:

#1-Fultz
#2-possible trade UNLESS Lakers get #1 and are infatuated with Ball
#3-possible trade
#4-Tatum

Honestly I like all 4 guys (even Ball), so at least there's no chance of #5 in a 4 person draft.

Then again, this is all so fluid, with Fox rising, so I don't know.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Landing at 4 tonight, or anywhere but 1, will have a significant effect on the picks trade value assuming Butler is still in play for Ainge.
From the standpoint of making the selection, I'm at peace with whatever happens. Want 1, obviously, but 2-4 are close enough for me (and all would have a place on the current roster) that I don't think it matters as much. All very different players but I like them all.

From a trade standpoint, absolutely. I said at the deadline during the Second Annual Butler Hysteria that the best chance of getting him (or someone similar) for a price that made sense for the C's was to wait for the lotto, hope to land #1 and slap that—and only that—on the table and dare a team not to take it.

Have the Celtics really been fucked by the lottery more so than other teams? How many times have they even been in the lottery? Looks like they were even "lucky" to get Len Bias. http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/teams/Boston-Celtics/2/Lottery-History
I don't think it's the volume as much as the magnitude of missing out on Duncan and then Durant, two of the most surefire superstar talents to come out of the draft in the last 20 years.
 

Red Averages

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Let's just remember that last year was a 2 player draft and the Celtics got "screwed". A year later I think we all agree that we're happy with how things turned out.
 

Ale Xander

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Hasn't been mentioned, someone should, lottery is at 8PM ET on ESPN. Estimate pick order will be around 8:20
 

JCizzle

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Landing at 4 tonight, or anywhere but 1, will have a significant effect on the picks trade value assuming Butler is still in play for Ainge.
Would you trade 1 for him? If so, would that cost us the admittedly small chance at Gordon from a cap perspective?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Let's just remember that last year was a 2 player draft and the Celtics got "screwed". A year later I think we all agree that we're happy with how things turned out.
Not all of us. Apparently there are people who think Jaylen Brown would be a late lottery pick this year if he were eligible to go back in the draft.

I think I'm watching something different than those people.
 

finnVT

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So that LAL->PHI pick will be in an envelope just as Lakers, right? If it ends up top 3 they don't change the card?
 

heavyde050

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Would you trade 1 for him? If so, would that cost us the admittedly small chance at Gordon from a cap perspective?
I wouldn't trade the #1 for him, especially because I believe that would just be part of a package. I would rather add Fultz to this team than trade away his rights, Brown, and someone else for Butler.
I would be intrigued by I straight up #1 only for Butler but would still possibly pass.
 

DJnVa

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I don't usually do this because I hate speculating about things I don't know about, but I can't see DA picking Ball. DA likes athletes. Ball is not one. I hope I'm correct.
Yeah, I don't think we would pick Ball at #2. I meant that it's possible the Lakers pick him at #1 and Fultz may still be there at #2.

It'll be interesting if we get #4 and Ball is there. Where does DA go?
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Not all of us. Apparently there are people who think Jaylen Brown would be a late lottery pick this year if he were eligible to go back in the draft.

I think I'm watching something different than those people.
It's a vicious cycle. Next year after 2 guys get hurt, 4 guys stink, and 3 guys put up empty numbers on a crap team, this year's top 10* will suffer the same fate in the eyes of 2018 draft prognosticators.

*The remaining 1 who excels, obviously, will be whoever the Celtics draft.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Yeah, I don't think we would pick Ball at #2. I meant that it's possible the Lakers pick him at #1 and Fultz may still be there at #2.

It'll be interesting if we get #4 and Ball is there. Where does DA go?
I suspect that DA will be ranking Fox higher than Ball. After watching Wall for seven games, I'd be excited to get Fox on this team, even if it isn't a position of need.
 

Koufax

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There's a big difference between where Jaylen fits in this draft class as opposed to last year's draft class. The point being made was that some of us feel pretty good about how last year's draft turned out relative to the talent in that class, not this year's class.
 

TheRooster

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And I believe that Brown will have a better career than all but 3-4 of the guys in this draft. The fact that Stevens trusts his defense enough to give him crunch time minutes in games 6 and 7 tells me a lot about his progress.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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And I believe that Brown will have a better career than all but 3-4 of the guys in this draft. The fact that Stevens trusts his defense enough to give him crunch time minutes in games 6 and 7 tells me a lot about his progress.
I wonder what is "better" for the development of a top pick - playing huge minutes on a lottery team like a Wiggins or playing limited minutes over the course of the season but getting significant run in the playoffs for a "contender" like Brown is doing. I guess each have their pros and cons and it's probably different for every player. Brown seems to be thriving in this spot.

Not that a top 3 pick ever gets to play in a conference finals his first year unless you're LeBron, so I guess there isn't really any data to go back to.
 

DJnVa

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Not that a top 3 pick ever gets to play in a conference finals his first year unless you're LeBron, so I guess there isn't really any data to go back to.
Lebron didn't play in conference finals his first year. Lebron didn't make the playoffs in his first year. Or his second year.