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Getting Smart with Statistics

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by JakeRae, Jan 8, 2018.

  1. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    15,112
    I don't think this playoff run should affect any future decisions on Rozier since next years team with Hayward and Irving is going to look FAR different than the swarming and aggressive defensive team which is making its run this year.
     
  2. bakahump

    bakahump Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    5,797
    A question for the more astute Basketball fans.

    Whats GS window look like realistically? 2 more years? 3?
    What young team in the west is posed to ascend? Is there a future "no doubt" western conference representative (like the current GS or like Cleveland has been in the east)? Or will it be one of 3-4 teams depending on how regular season and injuries go.
    In the east is it basically Philly and Boston for the next 5?
     
  3. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    There is a severe minutes crunch though, if they run this same team back again next year.

    Kyrie, Brown, Tatum, Hayward, and Horford are all "guaranteed" 30+ minutes per game. Theis and Baynes (or Baynes substitue) are good for the needed big minutes. Morris has the other small ball 4 minutes covered. You are realistically looking at ~30 minutes of guard play to be either shared by Smart and Rozier, or given to one of them.

    It is just not good use of assets to have someone as good as Rozier (or Smart) playing 15 minutes a night.
     
  4. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    5,993
    Golden State's window depends on Durant, and he's already grumbling about the below market deals that he's taken to save the owners money. It realistically might be this year given how far Tatum's come just this year.

    As for up & coming teams in the west, a lot depends on free agency and the management of the franchises with potential MVP talent (Minnesota, New Orleans, etc.). There are no sure things out there. With decent management the Pelicans could be that team, but they don't have a history of decent management.
     
  5. chilidawg

    chilidawg Member SoSH Member

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    I could see why that might be true for Irving, but why Hayward?
     
  6. bakahump

    bakahump Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I am curious about the Pels. With the Brow they will be good no doubt. But I almost think of them as 2000s era Twolves (or @2016 Cavs for that matter). Have the Best (or damn close) player in the game but cant put much around him.
    Brow seems like he will keep them around 40-50 wins but that will never get them another impact player via the draft. So they spend on Mediocre fringe guys to help and thuse blow any chance to really get a true second banana.
     
  7. NoXInNixon

    NoXInNixon Member SoSH Member

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    I would actually throw in more than that if necessary. Boston's own first in this or any future draft. The Memphis pick.

    This draft is especially deep in Centers, which is the exact position the Celtics have a need in. The window is open right now. They should cash in all of their assets to move as high in the draft as possible. #5 or #6 seems doable. Hell, I'd ask Atlanta if they'd trade #3 for Rozier and four firsts. (Ours this year, and the Kings, Grizz, and Clippers picks.) They'd probably say no, but I'd ask.
     
  8. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    1,173
    That is nuts. You don't trade a starting caliber PG, and two highly coveted lottery picks for the # 6 pick in a draft. That MEM pick is almost as valuable as the SAC pick. If you are willing to include SAC pick + MEM pick + BOS pick + Rozier you can do a hell of a lot better than the fucking #6 pick in the draft. Far less than that just netted the Celtics Kyrie Irving.
     
  9. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    The Memphis pick imo is virtually untouchable as it has potential to escape all of the protections in a couple years. The return on it wouldn't likely be as valuable as the potential for a high lottery pick to play immediate second unit minutes on a championship level team while on his rookie deal even without the potential impact of the #1. It also layers nicely into the contract extensions of Tatum and Jaylen.
     
  10. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Hayward is a solid defender although his numbers without Gobert behind him may take a hit. There is a significant downgrade when he replaces Smart's minutes (debatable on Jaylen's, call it a wash). When you combine that with Kyrie taking Rozier's you have 2/3's of your wing defense going from uber aggressive to more positional. That changes the framework of your entire defense.
     
  11. Sam Ray Not

    Sam Ray Not Member SoSH Member

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    Not sure what an astute fan would say, but as a shameless Warriors fan ... well, first off, it's unknowable: dynasties have a way of falling apart more suddenly than we imagine (viz. Jordan's Bulls, the Threetles, The Heatles, the Beatles, etc.) But if I had to guess, I'd say the Hamptons 5 will stay together at least another two years — i.e. till the end of Andre's contract, with Klay probably extended beyond that.

    As far as KD: I haven't heard or seen anything to support nighthob's claim that he has been "grumbling" about his below-market deals. He took his current deal of his own accord, with no cajoling from the Warriors FO, and has a $300M Nike contract plus other endorsements and investments to assuage any misgivings about it. And from everything I've heard, he he loves Oakland, and the proximity to Silicon Valley (for his budding career as a thin-skinned internet mogul), and his teammates. But ... who knows. Contractually, KD has entered the LeBron zone, where he’ll likely sign a one-year deal at a time, to allow himself optimal flexibility and capriciousness.

    In two years, Draymond's contract comes up, and there are always rumors that they’ll want to trade in his somewhat high maintenance personality and potentially limited shelf-life (due to his high-impact game) for a younger, flashier model like Anthony Davis. But two years is an eternity in the NBA — player movements + injuries + butterfly effects + age-related decline + unexpected blossoming (etc.) multiplied over that long of time period almost guarantee that the NBA landscape will look extremely different in summer of 2020.
     
    #161 Sam Ray Not, May 16, 2018 at 4:23 PM
    Last edited: May 16, 2018 at 4:29 PM
  12. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    They're not going to take any additional protections because if that pick doesn't convey they won't get made whole unless they want the Memphis pick, which we won't want to give up I don't think.
     
  13. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    Let's be real, it's protected 1-8 next year and 1-6 in 2019. The odds that memphis is within the first 8 picks next year, within the first 6 picks the year after that, AND ends up somewhere useful in 2020, seems to be way shorter than some people discussing it apparently assume. I'm not saying it's not valuable, but the odds are still pretty long on it conveying something useful in 2020, so let's not start measuring the drapes just yet.
     
  14. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    I agree with this.

    I don't think the truly terrible teams would be looking to add Rozier for a high draft pick when they'd have to pay him in a year.

    I do think Rozier should be moved this summer if Smart stays. I'd be targeting the Clippers for the 12th or 13th pick, and some lightening of the protections on the pick they already owe us.
     
  15. tbrown_01923

    tbrown_01923 Member SoSH Member

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    Well thats the "right mind" bit. This run really shouldn't affect the roster next year more than just shaping the possibility of how this group plays together. Roster building is more complicated than just adding bodies.
     
    #165 tbrown_01923, May 16, 2018 at 6:16 PM
    Last edited: May 16, 2018 at 7:02 PM
  16. HowBoutDemSox

    HowBoutDemSox Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

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    I also believe they’re not allowed to put any additional protections on the Sacramento pick if they trade it, since the rights they received from Philly with respect to the pick included top-1 protection, and you’re only allowed to convey another team’s pick with additional protections if you own the rights to that pick without any protections (e.g., as Philly owned both the 2017 Lakers pick and 2018 Sacramento pick unprotected):

    http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-adjusted-multiple-trade-rules-in-july/
     
  17. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Go look at their roster. They are going to be really, really bad the next few seasons.
     
  18. Sprowl

    Sprowl Emile de Becque Dope

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    Vancouver's collective curse on the faithless Grizzlies finally starts to pay off.
     
  19. dhellers

    dhellers Member SoSH Member

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    Vancouver's collective curse on the faithless Grizzlies finally starts to pay off.

    Would Okc loss quality as a seattle revenge?
     
  20. dhellers

    dhellers Member SoSH Member

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    I agree. This team is competing now, and could be favored next year. To loset an important component in the hopes of acquiring a future building block is ... too clever by half. You have no idea if a mid level draft will be worthy (they usually aren't). And how do you find time for a development project (i suppose that goes both ways, in that you wont throw a development project into the breach too soon)

    As for playing time (brought up by moops). Al isn't getting younger, and is a low ego guy -- would he object to 28 minutes a game. KI was at his best in November, where he was taking off serious minutes in the 4th, so will he care about reduced minutes. And in the early part of the season, both KI and GH are likely to be on minute restrictions.

    IOW: play to win next year. If that means you lose TR for nothing in 2020 that's a price of success in 2019.

    I sometimes wonder if soshers like to contemplate trades just because it is amusing to play at GM.
     
  21. Sprowl

    Sprowl Emile de Becque Dope

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    29,426
    I don't know. I saw the Celtics game each year that they played in Vancouver, but I didn't take the Thunder's desertion of Seattle quite so personally. South of the border, and all that...
     
  22. Spelunker

    Spelunker Well-Known Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    4,182
    I was talking Sonics with a local SeattleSfriend tonight. And when the idea came up that a Seattle expansion team might not get the Sonics name she was...vitriolic.
     
  23. cmurphycode

    cmurphycode Member SoSH Member

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    You know, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your overall point here. But your last sentence?

    You're on the message board of the former 53 win, 1 seed, ECF Celtics, who returned just 4 players due to a series of controversial trades by the man literally nicknamed Trader Danny.
     
  24. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    I'm not sure what isn't real about a 22-win team led by an aging Marc Gasol, an injured Conley, an injured Parson, while possibly losing 2 of their best 4 players to FA being like really really bad these next few years. This has been foreseen and discussed, at least by a few of us, since the trade occurred. The timing of this pick aligning with the aging of the Grizzlies core without the financial ability to reload. It's a perfect storm just as the Nets timeline was......Ainge would never sacrifice what he worked for now that the time is near for this pick to convey imo.
     
  25. ALiveH

    ALiveH Member SoSH Member

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    1,085
    How about packaging the Memphis pick plus Rozier for Memphis' own #4 this year? Not sure if Memphis does that trade for PR reasons. But, it converts the Memphis option value into real value (JJJ / Bagley / Bamba / Carter).
     
  26. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    1,139
    The Celtics are completely loaded next year, and will have little playing time to develop anyone. If anything, they're the team that should be waiting out the pick, not overpaying to reduce variance and get a high pick this year.

    Also, from a timeline perspective, it will be really helpful to have elite talent cost-controlled players coming in just when Jaylen and Tatum are getting really expensive.
     
  27. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    I agree with your conclusion: Ainge will take the deferred payoff and the higher-variance, higher-upside situation every day of the week. Cashing in the Brooklyn pick this year was frankly the anomaly for him (and Nostradamus-like in retrospect. We somehow under-rated the Nets).

    As for the Grizzlies' future prospects, my statement isn't so much that they're going to be good, as much as a statement of how hard it is to always out-tank the other tankers. This year, no fewer than 9 teams were in the 20s in wins. Can you say for sure they're going to be a 22-win team in 3 years, rather than a 30-win team? Or even 35? It doesn't take much of an "up year" for them to crack out of the bottom 8 or 6 and have the pick convey early. And then if it doesn't, that leaves them with no tanking incentive for 2021, so they might as well sign a few mid-grade FAs, try to win some games and sell some tickets - a la Brooklyn and the Lakers this year. I'm not arguing that their team isn't terrible, just that a lot can happen in the next few years and the variance is pretty high even if their team remains terrible.
     
  28. bakahump

    bakahump Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    5,797
    While I get that Ayton, Bagley, Bamba (and Jackson?) add (potential or future) talent at "the one weak spot of the lineup", I wonder do we need that guy to win next year? or the Year after?
    1. Would one of those guys be good enough next year to move the needle? Do they turn us from contender to favorite? or Favorite to "Close as can be considered Cinch"
    2. Is there a "Small to Medium sized" FA (Baynes, Nurkic? O'quinn?) , either on the team or off, that Danny could sign and get just as much or more then one of those Rookies? Would that signing move the needle any more or less then the rookies?
    3. Can they win without a "Small to Medium sized" acquisition at the 5? Maybe with Al taking the lions share of the 5 minutes and Theis backfilling some mins.

    Seperate Question
    1. Can you do any of these things AND lose back court depth in the form of Rozier AND still be Favorites? Or does that back court depth need to be there to enable some of these plans?
    2. Does Roziers value now give you another bullet for talent acquisition down the road?

    I think how you answer those questions depends on what you want to give up this year.
    If we are going to be able to contend and or be a favorite without a newly drafted big, then do you want to give up capitol (Rozier, future picks etc etc) to add one? Probably not. Seems like icing on the cake for future problems (another big FA price tag around the same time as J+J)
    If we can get the same production from a FA signing as we would from one of these draftees then maybe you look to keep that Bullet (Future picks) in the chamber to restock in a year or 2 and keep the window open for Jayson and Jaylen after the Kyrie and Gordan era.

    I am firmly in the keep Smart (assuming no god father offer is made) and look to harvest the Rozier value for something in the future. We will be "favs" (eastern anyway) regardless of who we draft so use that value to expand the window post Kyrie and Gordan.
     
  29. dhellers

    dhellers Member SoSH Member

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    Perhaps I got carried away :(

    That said: sometimes it is best to play your cards, rather than reshuffle the deck -- and it sure seems like now is one of those times. While the situation isn't quite the same: I don't recollect a lot of advocacy for transformative trades during the peak of KG/PP/RA era.

    More formally put: i argue that the null hypothesis is "keep this high achieving team together, and see what they do next year". Which means that the onus is on proponents of change to prove (in a 95% CI sense) that proposed trades are worthwhile.


    BTW2: it is interesting that the consensus seems to be Keep Smart! A month ago that was hardly the case!
     
    #179 dhellers, May 17, 2018 at 5:26 PM
    Last edited: May 17, 2018 at 5:32 PM
  30. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    Unless the alternative is Kelly Olynyk.
     
  31. TripleOT

    TripleOT Member SoSH Member

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    If the Cs are going to beat the Warriors in the next few years for a championship, they will need Smart. I'm ok with going all in for a title next year and risk losing TR for nothing, but if there's a deal out there that can Mo Bamba, I'd do it. Bamba is as good or better than what we MIGHT be getting if Sacto sucks next season. If they manage to make to to the back of the lottery, Bamba is lot better than one year of TR and the 12th pick in 2019. Assuming KI is healthy, there's plenty of punch on the roster to make up the loss of Rozier.

    This is a nice problem to have.
     
  32. Joe Sixpack

    Joe Sixpack Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Why would a team that can draft Bamba this year trade him for 1 year of Rozier?
     
  33. TripleOT

    TripleOT Member SoSH Member

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    I'm assuming that any team that trades for Rozier will sign him as their franchise PG.
     
  34. Joe Sixpack

    Joe Sixpack Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Why would they want Rozier as their franchise PG when they could have Bamba as their franchise C? Plus they could still extend an offer to Rozier next year anyway.
     
  35. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Well, a couple things. This hypothetical team could think of Bamba as not being a franchise center. This team could also think that getting Rozier a year before he hits restricted free agency gives them a much better shot at signing him long term, or at worst gives them the option to match whatver some other team throws at him.

    I am highly skeptical that Rozier nets anything resembling a top 5 pick, but I can see a scenario where Rozier + 2018 BOS pick gets them in the top 10. Or perhaps a Rozier + MEM or SAC pick gets them close to top 5.
     
  36. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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  37. JakeRae

    JakeRae Member SoSH Member

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    I think the card playing analogy isn't the right one because it assumes an option to either play a card or hope to get lucky.

    Trading Rozier is about the belief that Rozier is significantly more valuable to other teams than he is to the Celtics. That belief is based on a combination of an expectation of limited playing time being available next year and an inability (really, presumed unwillingness) to pay to keep him long term. A team with a starting role for him and with salary space to pay to keep him should place a much higher value on him than his value to the Celtics is.

    The Celtics, health permitting, look to be set up for a long run of being a perennial contender. Adding long term value at the expense of next year makes sense in that position, almost without qualification. If we we're approaching the end of a window, this would be a very different conversation because then burning long term value to keep the window open a little longer would be much more justifiable.

    To put this back in the cards context, it's like trading a good card from a great hand for the ability to add a bonus card of questionable quality to each of your next 4 hands.
     
  38. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    I love Rozier, I've always loved Rozier having been a believer in him from Day One. If Ainge wants to sell high and receive a return on Rozier there are a couple logical landing spots in the low lottery.

    * Charlotte appears ready to move on from Kemba and owns the 11th overall pick that can be used for Collin Sexton in the 4th guard role (assuming Smart is signed) while adding Kaminsky or Hernangomez to our second unit.

    * LA Clippers had one player remotely capable of playing the 1 last season in Austin Rivers and they own the 12th (via Piston) and 13th pick in the draft.
     
  39. djbayko

    djbayko Member SoSH Member

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    Well, because they'd be getting more than Rozier in that package.

    If Danny sees an opportunity to trade up and get a lottery guy that he really likes - whether that be Bamba or someone else - I'm okay with that.

    If we end up keeping Rozier for next year, I'm okay with that too.
     
  40. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    Well, for one thing, it’s a perimeter oriented game these days. Bamba should be a quality starting center, but a team might prefer a perimeter scorer and the prospect of two lottery picks next year over Bamba this year.

    That being said, I’m not sure that Bamba is the guy that Boston would be targeting. I think that they’d probably prefer Jackson or Porter.

    They’re pretty open about staying ahead of the curve on the pace & space era, and if Jackson can fill out to 250-260 while maintaining that athleticism, he’s going to run the Embiids of the world ragged.

    (This, by the way, is the answer to the question, “What position will Bagley play in the NBA?” Center. Regardless of what you think of his shotblocking or rebounding, his perimeter game and mobility is going to be a nightmare for the behemoths of the league to deal with.)
     
  41. Eddie Jurak

    Eddie Jurak Go Leafs Go Lifetime Member Gold Supporter SoSH Member

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    If Rozier had spent any time on the Doc Rivers C's, this deal would practically be done already.
     
  42. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Or if he had performed ridiculously well while playing against LAC
     
  43. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    I was thinking something like Irving + Boston's 1st rounder in 2018 for Jordan (contract expires after 2018-19), and the 12th and 13th picks. From a picks standpoint, it seems like a lopsided deal for Boston, but usually moving up to those kinds of picks isn't anything like moving into the top 5. Plus, the Clips would be getting hands down the best player in the deal. For the Celtics, they could snag Porter or Sexton or Bridges (Villanova) or Knox or Trent Jr. Lots of ways to add quality talent. Then Jordan's salary goes away after the 2018-19 season (or maybe they turn right around and trade Jordan before the season even starts...who knows - it would be an expiring contract and that's valuable). Such a deal would allow Rozier to start, and ultimately it would clear cap space for Smart as well. And they'd add two young guys with talent with the 12th and 13th picks.

    The Clippers get the best player in the deal (and that's always a good thing). I dunno. None of us knows what any of these guys are thinking or what the market looks like.
     
  44. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    I can't really think of a reason I'd want to trade Kyrie Irving, who is going to murder the league in this offense next year with Hayward back and Tatum's development. Especially to get Jordan and the 12th and 13th pick?

    Hard pass.

    Irving and Hayward aren't getting dealt. The team is set up as it is, with those guys back next year, to win.

    Sacramento will suck next year, that's where Horford's potential replacement will come from--that pick or a trade with that pick. Not by giving up Kyrie Irving.
     
  45. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    Right. I mean nobody wants to deal ANY of these guys. But they can't keep them all. So it's just a question of who gets let go or traded and what's the return if guys are dealt. Because keeping Irving means not keeping Rozier beyond 2018-19. It's pretty simple math.
     
  46. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    Well, the counterpoint is that there exists a world where Kyrie and/or Horford both decline their 2019/2020 option and sign elsewhere. Unlikely that one or both don't extend or resign, but there is the possibility.
     
  47. BaseballJones

    BaseballJones goalpost mover SoSH Member

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    Right but you can't plan on that.
     
  48. JCizzle

    JCizzle Member SoSH Member

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    Why are we trying to trade Kyrie to keep Rozier though? It just makes so much more sense to let Rozier go. Kyrie is a top 15 player in the league.
     
  49. Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

    Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat has big, douchey shoulders Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Is recency bias another way of saying ignorance?
     
  50. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    No, I get the math.

    I'm just saying they're not trading Kyrie. Or Hayward.
     

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