Someone who feels he's worth north of $14m cannot possibly fathom that this IS the Celtics offer. Standard young athlete delusion to the marketplace.
Getting Smart with Statistics
- Thread starter JakeRae
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If KAT gets moved, you would likely need to take on some bad salary on top of sending picks and players. And yes, AD is a pipe dream.
However, I think we have seen over the past couple years how difficult it is to come up with matching salaries for all of our hypothetical trades because of the nature of the Celtics salaries. We have three 20 million + players, and the rest were all less that 6 million. Having a 10 million dollar player, who is not a negative value contract, is valuable in that it allows for much greater flexibility in trades.
Not saying that is the reason they should sign him to a contract he can't get anywhere else, but it should be part of the calculus.
I'm in the same place. We'd all love to see a long term deal for Crowder money, but if he's unhappy and wants out at the first opportunity-- either by requesting a trade or exercising a player option-- that's not a good outcome. Either make him a fair market multi-year offer or make no offer at all and let him play for the QO. I'm guessing that Ainge has opted for the latter given the dry market for RFAs.
Yeah, everyone likes Smart, and we can argue as to whether he’s the sixth, seventh, eighth or ninth most valuable player on the team. He’s the type of guy you’d like to keep, but only on your terms. I’m sure it’s not thrilling to Smart or the way he sees it, so I can see moving on becoming his preference.
It's not a bad thing to have a tradeable contract. Obviously having is better than not having. But the other guys to whom Marcus is comparing himself are the beneficiaries of teams overpaying in part because they need that contract. We are not really in that position. Yes, keeping alive the Davis dream is nice and all, but rolling (pretty much) this group out there for the next couple of years is a real and viable option for us. It isn't for everyone.
Crowder money is now $10+ million/year. Basically, the Barton and Exum contracts are at the same level as the Thomas, Bradley, and Crowder contracts were.
I still believe the team is much better off with Smart at 4/$40M to 4/$50M than on a 1 year deal. I do not want to lose Smart in a year and would much rather ship out Morris now to generate the extra space than risk not having Smart as a sixth man long term.
Edit: Note, if Smart believes he is worth $15M/year, a 4/$50M deal is essentially the QO plus 3 years of "fair" valuation. I think Smart is probably worth about $20M/season but has little chance of ever actually being paid that as there is a really narrow path for good but not great players to receive their full value in the NBA given the existence of max contracts.
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With all due respect, that's precisely what Boston tried to do last fall, get Marcus signed to an extension at over-market rates so that he would be available as a trade piece this summer. Unfortunately, as WBCD noted...
This is exactly right. I imagine that Boston probably offered Smart something like 4/50-52 last fall so that he'd be available for any potential trades this summer, but his agent badly misread the market. And now that the new contract isn't available for easy trade (he would be under the new rookie extension trade rules until the halfway point of the season), Boston's offer is now likely something closer to market rate. And Walters is desperately trying to get back to the offer he had last fall when Boston likely saw Marcus as the key salary ballast for a summer trade.
I observed this earlier, there's going to be a glut of free agents on the market next year, and a lot of those guys that signed a couple of years ago won't be declining player options to go back on the market, so the roleplayer squeeze looks like it's going to last until the summer of '20 or '21.
And then there's this cold hard reality, if you sign a QO your Bird Rights are non-transferable, so any money you're not getting in the QO year is likely lost forever. If Marcus plays for $6 million next year, does he think that he's going to make it up on the next deal? Or just delaying the inevitable and signing a 3/36 deal in the summer of '19 anyway, and losing a prime earning year and $6 million to boot.
I don't believe this story at all. I believe someone in the Smart camp told Mark Murphy this, but I don't believe the source.
Ainge picks up a call from Terry Rozier when he's on the clock at the NBA draft but hasn't thought to call anyone in the Smart camp this week?
Not credible.
Yeah, but last fall they didn't know what they had in JB and JT. Now they do. The market has changed. Everything is different.
Marcus needs to avoid comparing his offer to a bunch of recent signees whose teams don't mind overpaying in order to lock down slots for their next move. We don't need to do that, so we won't.
I suspect they knew very well what they had in Tatum, but last fall there was real value in having Marcus available to trade on July 1st for any stars that came available. But because he didn't sign an extension he's subject to BYC rules until mid-January, so there's no more value in paying the premium.
Happy really misread the market and seems to be continuing to give terrible advice. Barton is a good comp for him valuewise, and he's unlikely to do any better than that next summer. Is it really worth paying $5-$6 million to get there?
I agree as Barton as a good comp for what a long term deal should look like. Barton is coming off a better season than Smart but is a lot older and doesn't bring the same intangibles (i.e., defensive and positioning value Smart seems an outlier on and therefore I think probably isn't adequately measured by the statistics we have to measure such things).
That said, I think Smart does have a real potential market in a year, the question is just how big that market is. One sticking point in negotiations is that Ainge is likely going to what to price in the QO to any extension at this point since it's pretty clear Smart isn't getting an offer from elsewhere. That may not have been true a year ago where we were buying out some risk of a through the roof offer. Thus, Smart may think 4/60 is a fair contract when Ainge thinks it is 4/51, because of the QO. (Smart may also think he should start at $15M and see yearly escalations rather than that being an average value, which would widen the gap.
The Celtics likely need to start thinking about getting this done soon now that most of the comps have signed and before the options for dumping Morris dry up.
I have no idea what Marcus was offered last fall but its very doubtful Smart is getting a Barton deal now.
Time is on the Celtics side.
MaMo (@$5.375M) can be dealt during the season to a competitive team that sustains an injury to a rotational wing.
We can agree to disagree on Smart's value. Both Barton and Evans signed for $12M/season this off-season. I don't think it's reasonable to value Smart at less and there are good reasons to think his value is substantially higher. Smart's realistic downside risk, barring a career ending injury, is a full MLE deal for about $10M next year. His upside is probably about twice that. Realistically, he's likely to get somewhere between $12M and $16M per season if he's a free agent next year. A contract offer around 4/50 is roughly in line with those expectations. It eliminates risk for Smart at the expense of some upside and locks in a good value deal for Boston. If you drop it to 4/40, it is a bad deal for Smart and he should just play out the QO. If you drop the years, it is harder to make it really make sense for Boston as weighed against the QO.
As for Morris, the reason to trade Morris is for tax relief. Trading him midseason to a contender requires a salary match which would significantly limit the amount of relief available, defeating the whole purpose of trading him. He won't return enough value for trading him to be worth it. Tyreke Evans couldn't fetch a first last year, for example.
If Smart is extended, the team presumably will want to dump Morris. To do that, they need to agree to terms with Smart before everyone runs out of cap room. Right now, only Atlanta, Sacramento, and Chicago really have space left. Atlanta may not actually have interest in Morris. Chicago and Sacramento probably would as both teams are very shallow on the wings. We may not want to trade Morris to Sacramento because of the pick.
What is there to discuss if Ainge doesn't want to commit the money I've believed all along that he never wanted to commit to Smart in the role he'd be playing? The ball is in Smart's court......bring back a signed offer sheet or accept the Qualifying Offer.
Even if I agreed with your hypothesis, which I don't, I believe he'd still check in this past week. It would be very strange even if you only wanted him back for this one year, to not call and ask hey why not sign that qualifying offer and hit free agency unrestricted next year?
All reports from last October were the Celtics were close with Smart on an extension, and now we're to believe that not only do they have no interest in signing him, but they haven't even communicated with him? With Ainge being a guy well known for communicating with his players.
I don't believe it. Sounds like an agent trying to paint the Celtics as bad guys to his client.
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Jake, guess we disagree. Don't get me wrong I like Smart. But his agent completely screwed this up.
So you think Danny should hurry up and sign Smart for 4yrs at $50M. And that deal would be better for the Celtics than signing Smart for the QO?
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If you can get Marcus Smart for four more years at 12.5 per I absolutely pull the trigger. This guy is the heart and soul of the drive on this team never mind everything else we know about.
Yes. And I think that contract will yield about the same surplus value as Kyrie on a max.
Or, to draw a baseball analogy, I think you're asking me the equivalent of whether I would've preferred the Sox sign JD Drew to a 4/40 deal or a 1/6 deal the year they signed him. I would've picked the 4/40 deal because $40 million in underpay over 4 years is better than $15 million for 1 year.
And, yes, I still think Smart is a $20 million/year player even though I don't think it's likely he's ever paid like one.
Walter McCarty agrees with you, which should carry a little weight:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/nesn.com/2018/07/ex-celtics-coach-walter-mccarty-seemingly-questions-marcus-smart-report/amp/
Unless the cap goes up significantly more than expected, the Celtics won't have nearly the room to sign a max if Kyrie leaves(unless Horford leaves or opts out and takes a big discount), much less sign Smart as well.
If Smart ends up playing on the QO, I'd be stunned if he signed back here next summer. He'd be out.
The cap is going up to 109. If Kyrie leaves, the Celtics should have around 80 million committed and can create a few million here or there, which would get them a max for younger players. Then they can use Bird rights on Smart. Al could also opt out and save them enough to sign a vet max.
Wait, so you think Ainge should offer him the QO......then call him again to ask him to sign it? This is high stakes poker, Ainge made his play now he shuts up and awaits Smart to make the next move. Action is on Smart right now....find an offer sheet or accept the QO. There is nothing a phone call does at this point. It's a player who doesn't understand the FA process feeling betrayed when there is no reason for him to feel this way.
This is absolute insanity to me with our future tax situation coupled with Smart's reduced role with the return of Hayward and Kyrie.
five guys committed to 80M, no options to create any millions around that without Horford leaving/taking discount. How are you getting a max plus 6 other players in to that 29M, which is already less than a max? Having that 29M to spend would also mean renouncing Smarts Bird rights, otherwise you don't have 29M.
If Kyrie walks, you can't get a max to replace him. Doesn't work.
Yes. That's at a minimum if he's not already negotiating with his people for a longterm deal, which I believe he is. You seem entrenched in your position that Ainge wants Smart back on the QO, and the QO only, despite reports that say otherwise.
If you actually want a guy, you don't just throw the QO on him then not touch base with him at all and expect him to come back and be a part of your team. I think it's obvious the Celtics like Smart a hell of a lot more than you do.
They do need to let Marcus walk, you’re right. But in the NBA, you take a max over spare parts, especially since the Celtics have assets to help build their bench. And next year’s market will be shitty to sign non-max contracts, giving max players more value.
I don’t see much evidence that Ainge wants Smart long term at a value Smart is going to sign.
I dunno, that isn't how team/player negotiations are handled from anything I've understood. I called those negotiations on a long-term deal last year as nothing but noise and don't see any evidence that Ainge will ever pay that kind of money for a 2nd unit player. What reports say Ainge is looking to sign Smart for more than the QO right now? I like Smart.....I don't like Smart on the type of long-term contract being discussed here in his new role he'll have on this team moving forward and in our current tax state with Kyrie coming up followed by Jaylen in a couple years. If I'm Ainge I don't give a player a huge raise while his role on the team diminishes.
Of course, but again, you don't have room. It's never as simple as our max level guy in Kyrie walks(especially a currently underpaid one), we now have the room to offer someone else the max.
I don't either. But that's very different than only wants him for one year at the QO. There's a huge gulf of difference there.
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They will have room. The max for 6 or less will be 27 million and for 7-9 will be 32.5. They can definitely do the former and probably make the latter work, too.
But is it possible, you were maybe, wrong?
I mean, reports from everybody last fall had them negotiating on a long term deal, and some had it as close.
You think everybody was wrong?
I also don't think the Celtics have had a situation like Smart in the past as a "2nd unit player". He's young, versatile and I'd say gives them what they'll need most to go with their big five, an elite defender. In a playoff game, he'll still play 20+ minutes per game because he'll be your top reserve at the 1, the 2 and the 3.
Again, my brother, they can't.
With only 5 guys counting against the cap, you have to take a cap charge at the minimum for the 7 empty spots. It'll be around 900K next year times 7. So subtract another 6.3M from the 29M in space you have in the best case scenario. That's nobody else signed through next year, Baynes opting out, not keeping any of your first round picks...
Even if Horford opted out and said, eh I'll take 15M a year to stay, it wouldn't realistically fit.
It reminds me too much like the Rondo debate from years ago though. Ainge doesn't overpay for role players on his contending teams and I never believe he'd break that trend for Smart especially with the delicate tax repercussions facing us down the road. I've go to my grave believing Ainge was never making an offer to Isaiah either as it would have been insulting.
I don't know what I was maybe wrong about...... I will be proven wrong if Ainge matches an offer sheet or announces a long term deal but as of now I feel I've been spot on about how he feels about paying a huge deal to Smart. I mean we are debating things and sharing our beliefs on a message board.
Elite defenders off the bench who can step in with the starters don't have to cost 4/$50m or whatever crazy numbers are being tossed around. Ainge has always acquired players to fill this role on the cheap which is what I expect him to continue doing.....especially now with our future tax challenges.
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That he doesn't want him long term.
Why would he negotiate at all last fall if he didn't want him long term?
Unless, again, you think all the other people with sources made it up.
You've said this thing about Ainge doesn't overpay for role players on his contending teams before and it's not true. In 2009, Ainge gave Rasheed Wallace the full midlevel for two years, which is 9 million bucks in todays dollars. The following season he gave Jermaine O'Neal the full midlevel for two seasons. The year after that, Ainge gave Jeff Green 9 million dollars, but he failed his physical. The next year, Green gets 4 years starting at 8M, and Jason Terry gets 2 years for the full midlevel.
I'd say your take on Ainge is backwards. He's proven he will overpay for role players on his contending teams. He hasn't really had any contending teams besides that period, and right now.
Does that mean he's going to match any ridiculous Smart offer sheet? Hell no. But I'd be stunned if he didn't want him around long term at a price he finds somewhat reasonable.
What you are describing is Tony Allen – but is that all Smart is to this team? I’m asking honestly. I get that he’s never going to be Kyrie/GH/Tatum or even Al. But Smart averaged almost 30 minutes per game – Kyrie only averaged 32.
I’m in agreement that we shouldn’t fuck our cap to sign Smart – he’s not as important as the max guys or Tatum and probably Brown to the team’s future so you can’t jeopardize that. But he’s hardly some second unit guy who gives the stars a blow either. I just have to think there’s some middle ground way of assessing his (admittedly unique) value to the team here.
I've never said this. I've always said I've felt he would never sign him to a long-term deal that Smart would agree to signing. Comparing the 4/$50m-ish deals is not in the same league as Sheed or Jermaine on a 2-year MLE......Ainge would absolutely sign Smart to a 2-year MLE so I don't understand the point you're trying to make.
No, he really hasn't overpaid and Yes, he has had other contending teams.. He signed Shaq, Posey, Nate Rob, Marbury, Cassell, PJ, and Eddie House to fill these roles while having 2nd round picks like Baby and Powe along with a couple MLE guys. He's never signed a 4/$50m contract for a 3rd or 4th guard. He let Perkins go, let Posey go, let Baby go.....rather than locking them into long term deals. The only "overpays" I see are Sheed and Jermaine who again were on 2-year deals at the MLE which is reasonable not an overpay. 4/$50m is an outrageous overpay for the role Smart will have on this team imo.
How many of those minutes will be going to Hayward? Smart was more than Tony Allen LAST season but with Hayward returning there will be fewer minutes and fewer 4th quarter crunch time minutes when everyone is healthy.
The situation is simple. Smart is likely worth, in the abstract, about $12-20M, in terms of value to a team. The problem for him, which didn't exist 1-2 years ago, is that the Celtics now have 5 players who are worth about 25-45M in terms of value add.
Usually in these situations Marcus would get moved for a decent return. Unfortunately for the Celtics, he's a unique and hard to value player, so that option doesn't really exist. Especially from an optics point of view: it's very very hard for an opposing GM to sell a trade to his fanbase when the centerpiece is Marcus Smart.
So we're left with the Cs needing to squeeze him or bring him back on the QO.
Usually in these situations Marcus would get moved for a decent return. Unfortunately for the Celtics, he's a unique and hard to value player, so that option doesn't really exist. Especially from an optics point of view: it's very very hard for an opposing GM to sell a trade to his fanbase when the centerpiece is Marcus Smart.
So we're left with the Cs needing to squeeze him or bring him back on the QO.
I'm not sure he's worth 12-20. It's easy to see his impact as a Celtics fan, but for opposing fans and GMs it's easy to see his DNP from the offensive end. He actively hurts us at times with his shot selection
The point I'm making is you keep saying he won't pay for role players on contending teams. The max he could offer guys in those contending seasons was the full midlevel. He signed guys for that every season he was a contender in addition to using Bird rights on Jeff Green for even more than the midlevel.
Yes he's never signed a 4/50M dollar contract for a 3rd(lol at saying maybe 4th) guard. He may not now either, that's near the top of Smarts' range. But the money is completely different now than it was the last time they were contenders, and they haven't had a guy like Smart that's so young and so valuable going into free agency.
I noticed you skipped over Jeff Green there. You don't see Jeff Green as an overpay? As the only realistic guy in there he could sign for big bucks, he signed for big bucks. I'd say Green at 4/36 is pretty similar to a 4/50 deal in todays dollars.
Bulpett just said they are still fine offering him a contract like Exum got, so in the 10-12 range. But he hss ti be kicking himself because Bulpett alsp said they offered 4 years for more than what Exum got before the season. So he probably turned down a 4/48 or 4/52 type of deal. Get him back on a 3/33 or 4/44 type of contract and I'll be happy
You realize a 4 year MLE deal is, more or less, $40M now, right? I'm not sure why the extra years would be a negative when we're talking about a 24 year old, so you're basically saying he'd never pay 25% over the MLE for a quality roleplayer?
As an aside, I think you're dramatically undervaluing Smart if you're comparing him to guys like Nate Rob or the version of Shaq we signed. Smart is much more like a rich man's Tony Allen, and Ainge has repeatedly stated his regret about not doing enough to keep Allen.
I'm not sure what DA would say to Marcus right now.
Signing Smart to a team-friendly contract would be of great value but DA can't really say that. DA isn't going to up his offer and the last long-term offer that DA made probably didn't make Marcus very happy. There's really nothing DA can do but wait.
I shudder to think but if I'm running SAC, I wouldn't mind paying 4/$40M for him.
Smart doesn't seem like the type of player that the Kings have been targeting - though he fits better as a sub for Hield or Bogdanovic. But now that LaVine is off the table for them, its possible.
He just isn't worth $16-20M/yr for multi-years to the Celtics or to the rest of the NBA. If he was don't you think he would have received at least one offer at half that?
This feels like IT4 all over again. Valuable in Brad's system then goes elsewhere and isn't nearly as good. The rest of the League is catching on to this.