Going to LAAA in 2018 - Shohei Ohtani
- Thread starter Tokyo Sox
- Start date
Ohtani has taken Mike Clevinger deep twice in the first 3 innings tonight. Now 7-for-11 with 4 hr & 8 rbi against Cleveland pitching in his career. That's a slugging pct. of 1.727.
*
*
Maria I. GuardadoVerified account @mi_guardado
The Angels have recommended Tommy John surgery for Shohei Ohtani.
Ohtani underwent an MRI today that revealed new damage to his UCL.
The Angels have recommended Tommy John surgery for Shohei Ohtani.
Ohtani underwent an MRI today that revealed new damage to his UCL.
Oh man, what an atrociously mismanaged situation. Obviously I don't know all the details that went into it, but I can't believe they let him come back and pitch this year.
Does the new damage make recovery from the surgery longer or less successful? I'd guess so but IANAD.
Why? They either needed to see if he could pitch with the elbow the way it is or not and miss the rest of this year and next year, or wait until next year and then he’s in the same boat and misses next year and into the 2020 season.
From what I've seen, the thinking behind having him pitch again this year was so if they discovered he needed the surgery, it happened in the fall and he'd only miss 2019, instead of discovering it in the spring and potentially putting part of 2020 in jeopardy too.
Of course, that ignores the fact that he could have had the surgery three months ago and potentially recovered enough to hit in 2019, if not pitch late in the season.
Since the surgery involves complete replacement of the UCL, I doubt it affects recovery time or success at all. Whether the tendon is 50% torn or 75% torn, the surgery is the same either way.
If that's the case, I don't see the harm in letting him start again... other than delaying the inevitable surgery 3 months.
If he doesn't have surgery, does that mean he gives up pitching or does he think it will just miraculously heal?
Fair enough, I was under the impression that surgery was likely before, and that was why I thought it was a bad decision. I guess if it wasn't going to make it worse then it isn't that bad of a decision.
This whole thing really sucks for baseball fans, though.
Make that 4 for 4 and 2 HR. He is a very good SP but, man, give him 150 games as a hitter and he probably hits 35+ HRs.
And his 7th SB of the year. It's amazing the Angels actually let him steal bases. He's 7/9 for the year.
According to FanGraph's, yes.
https://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/contract-details/service-time-super-two/
Yup. He's basically been Aaron Judge this year.
Judge: .285/.398/.548 (.946 OPS) in 372 ABs
Ohtani: .287/.367/.579 (.946 OPS) in 247 ABs
This kid is amazing. Assuming he gets TJ surgery soon, he should be ready to DH sometime in April, which means he'd get 140-150 games next year as a hitter. If you take this year's stats and assume same production over 600 ABs, you're talking 43 HR and 117 RBI and 17 SB.
Will he really get 140-150 games, though? Even considering for the time missed to the elbow injury (about a month), he's still only hit in 82 games this year, 60 as a starter. He's a platoon DH with a significant split (1.079 OPS vs RHP, .588 OPS vs LHP). With Pujols still around, I expect that would continue because Albert's not playing 140 games at 1B. Unless Ohtani improves against lefties, he's not going to ever be an everyday player IMO.
I agree - his 3.5 total WAR ties him with Joey Wendle of the Rays, and Ohtani's done that in limited time and in a most exciting manner.
There may be some pushback from those who aren't fond of calling Japanese imports "rookies."
The LHP splits are real but we're talking a 67 AB sample size here. Meanwhile, Pujols has a .700 OPS. Are the Angels really going to waste ABs on his age 39 season over a guy with Ohtani's potential? I mean, they're a really dumb franchise so it's possible but that would be insane to me. The final 3/87 (yikes...) of Pujols' contract should be treated purely as a sunk cost. I would honestly just DFA him and eat the money and give his roster spot to a younger guy.
If he's healthy enough to do it, I think Ohtani plays 140 or so games at DH next year.
I'm putting more stock in the fact that the Angels have, from the jump, been consciously keeping him away from lefties than what he's done in the few PAs he's had against lefties. Now that Pujols has been shut down for the year, it will be telling how they deploy Ohtani over the last few weeks. If he is the full time DH for the last 22 games (say 20 starts) regardless of opposing pitcher, then maybe they do the same next year. If they continue to platoon him, I think that makes a statement about how they view his abilities vs LHP.
Before his arm troubles, his hitting schedule was generally governed by his starts. The Angels were generally putting him in the lineup in the middle of the week regardless of whether it was a LHP or not. Since June, they've definitely been more selective. Agree that it will be interesting to see how they deploy him down the stretch. My guess is it's the status quo but I'm not sure that rules out giving him more opportunities next year vs. LHP.
They should just let him hit full time. History says he will not have a sustained (above average) career as a SP anyhow. Just let him hit. Or let him hit, and then come in as a reliever or closer.
The other day on MLB Now, Dan O'Dowd suggested using him primarily as a hitter and also as the closer. Full-time DH might be an issue with Pujols still around but might get the best of both worlds. Can he play a position?
Then there’s that other guy on his team, who may have taken the MVP lead back tonight - 5 for 5, 2 HR, 5 RBI.
Since August: 121 PA, .343/.430/.743, 14bb/35k. 11 HRs, 7 SB/4CS. .424 BAbip though. He only had 2 SB in his first 199 PA.
If he played a full year, he could potentially make the 30/30 or even 40/40 club. I'd be hard pressed to continue pitching him if I were the Angels. At least assuming he pitches more like a 2 than an ace.
If he played a full year, he could potentially make the 30/30 or even 40/40 club. I'd be hard pressed to continue pitching him if I were the Angels. At least assuming he pitches more like a 2 than an ace.
Not sure what that is based on, NY was ready to bend over backwards for Ohtani and had left the DH spot open for him (they got Stanton after he picked LA). He picked a team based largely on geography, he wanted spring training in Arizona (not Florida) and he wanted to be closer to Japan than he would be on the East Coast. Every team to make his short list had spring training in Arizona, NY never had a chance.
I heard on the radio this morning he is hoping to be able to DH next season... I suppose time will tell if that is the case.
Position players usually don't take much more than 6 months to recover, so if it goes as planned there's no reason he shouldn't be available to hit all season. The question is how he'll go about rehabbing on the mound with that schedule. Do they send their starting DH down for a pitching rehab assignment during the season?
*
*
Oh he's definitely not pitching next year. Probably wouldn't even be cleared to play in the outfield.
What I was kind of thinking was that he would be given the okay to start seeing live pitching near the end of spring training, and then would need a month or two to get the timing down, etc.
What I was kind of thinking was that he would be given the okay to start seeing live pitching near the end of spring training, and then would need a month or two to get the timing down, etc.
