Grading the Umps - March/April

normstalls

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 15, 2004
4,504
There has got to be consequences for horrible umpiring like that. Second batter of the game. Unbelievable.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
43,177
AZ
He got jobbed, no doubt. But do we really think it would have mattered if the count had been 1-2 or 2-2?
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,559
He got jobbed, no doubt. But do we really think it would have mattered if the count had been 1-2 or 2-2?
I mean yes? His other AB was hit at 99.5 mph for a out. It also changes how the pitcher will work the remainder of the AB.
Reminds me of the same discussions we had the year before Duran broke out
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
43,177
AZ
I mean yes? His other AB was hit at 99.5 mph for a out.
With a 1-1 count. He has very little chance once he gets to two strikes. He's 0-16 with 11 Ks and 1 GIDP when the pitcher gets to 1-2 this year. He's 0-7 with one walk when the pitchers gets to 2-2.

Career 1-2 tOPS+ is -18 and 2-2 is 17. He has 224 Ks in 356 PAs.

After 1-2 his tOPS+ is a little better at 8. He's done better after 2-2 (57), but total strike outs after being behind in the count 1-2 or 2-2 are 62 percent.

Obviously, staying at bat increases the chances of things happening, but he was still probably going to strike out. Calling those impactful calls must use some kind of algorithm that doesn't really care who the player is. A missed called third strike at 0-2 on Bobby Dalbec, at least right now, is virtually meaningless.