Morey has been great but missing out on LeBron because your response to the cap jump and missing out on Horford and Bazemore (lol) was to give Ryan Anderson $80 million would be a pretty tough one to swallow.
Greened Illusion: Lebron to the Celtics
- Thread starter TripleOT
- Start date
Portland was on board last summer with swapping Harkless and Leonard for Ryan Anderson as part of a Carmelo trade. The Knicks didn’t want Harkless and Houston didn’t have an extra pick to dump Leonard so it never went anywhere. I’m not positive Portland would still be game but if picks were on the table and/or Cleveland wanted Harkless it wouldn’t be impossible to revisit those trade proposals and work something out. I think Gordon/Harkless/Nene for Lebron even works if they get it done before July 1.
Via free agency is impossible, it would have to be a sign and trade to Cleveland. Maybe they’d look for a third team, but either way they’d have have to incentivize some team into taking Anderson’s contract. In this regard, Gilbert has his small bit of leverage. He can insist LeBron take a better package from Philly or Boston or he won’t play along and then it becomes a game of chicken between the two parties.
That’s not a completely terrible package for Cleveland, but Gilbert has to know it isn’t about the next 2 years for him and what he’s going to need is a young superstar. They’d need a third (or fourth at this point?) team to flip Gordon to for picks. The rest is jetsam. And Portland still needs something for taking on Anderson’s deal. Seems unlikely, but possible.
Gilbert will still be pushing for Philly or Boston, unless he wants LeBron out West for whatever reason. Not like Cleveland will be competing for the rest of his career, though, so it shouldn’t matter to him.
Last edited:
Going to Houston means having to beat the Warriors and then (likely) the Celtics in the Finals. And for whatever reason I just don’t see LeBron buying into Mike D’Antoni for his twilight years.
Having to beat Boston and Golden State is a requirement no matter where he goes, unless he goes to one of those two teams. The issue with one conference versus another is never the conference finals and NBA finals, but the first two rounds. If he goes to LA, for example, he’d probably be stuck as a 2nd or 3rd seed and have to beat Houston, Golden State, and Boston. LA is probably the only realistic destination where he’d face a significantly more difficult road (which is one reason I don’t think he’ll go there). All the others, he should only have to beat two of Boston, Golden State, Houston, and Philly. The Spurs are a bit of a wild card here, as well. They could be a threat if things fall into place.
If he comes to Boston, the only team is Golden State. If he goes to Golden State, he can size his next 3 rings and Silver can cancel the next 3 NBA seasons.
I think the D’Antoni issue might be real, though. LeBron is heavy on emphasizing defense, and, well Mike D’Antoni...
And I don’t envision LeBron and Harden meshing well from a pure basketball standpoint. I could be wrong on that obviously.
It’s pretty remarkable how the Celtics are his best option, by a pretty clear margin.
Does Lebron look for the best opportunity to win next year, or the next five years, because those can be very different things. It's quickly forgotten that he left Miami in 2014 to build a team that could beat San Antonio and within a year the Golden State super team was there and winning the championship. Look for a team that can beat Golden State and Houston today and you might leave yourself vulnerable to the next great team in Boston or Philly, or New Orleans or Milwaukee.
HOU played much better defense against GSW than CLE did. Sure, D'Anotoni doesn't emphasize it, but a sizeable piece of defense is having the personnel. And HOU has that and would only be more switchable with Lebron on the team.
Harden and Lebron may not be an ideal mix, but D'Antoni is not bad fit for Lebron. ISO ball, driving and dishing to 3pt shooters is Lebron's thing. If I were Lebron, I would be targeting Houston or Boston. If off-court business interests are a big factor, that's different. But Lebron fits wonderfully in a D'Antoni offense.
It's a fair criticism based on D'Antoni's history but the Rockets were 6th in the league in defensive efficiency this season and they defended the Warriors better than any other team has the past four years. Paul, Tucker, Ariza, Mbah a Moute and Capela are all very good defenders.
Isn’t much of their defense based around Capela? I haven’t read much on it yet, but I assume he will be offered a max contract. Would the Rockets match?
Cap space is non-existent this offseason. While we don't know exactly what teams will do between now and July 1 there are only five teams expected to have max space: LAL, Philly, Indiana, Atlanta and Sacramento. I don't envision any of those teams going hard after Capela and tying up their space with a max offer. Regardless, yes I think Houston matches anything and a starting salary in the $10-15M per range is a given.
Don't sleep on the Chicago Bulls who could easily make a play to be a wildcard here. There are Capela whispers coming out of there.
Good call. He’d be a nice fit next to Markannen and a good use of cap space for Chicago. Getting Capela in FA and adding Porter in the draft would be a nice offseason for Chicago.
Gilbert has virtually no power. His alternative position to cooperating to facilitate Lebron ending up wherever he wants to go is to get nothing. Any positive value return is, rationally, better than that. He may not be completely rational in his approach, so a team looking to get Lebron likely needs to offer some value to make it work, but nothing insane. Houston would have to offer a bevy of draft picks not because of Lebron but because the contracts they are trading away are awful.
Related to this, the Celtics aren't giving up one of their stars plus top picks for Lebron. That is too high a price when the other side will certainly blink because Irving or Hayward or Horford are all substantially more valuable than nothing. This goes for Philly too, they aren't giving up major draft capital because they don't need to ask Cleveland to take back an albatross contract (and, if Cleveland is difficult, they have other options to create cap room, like trading contracts with picks attached at reasonable values to a team like Brooklyn).
Houston and Boston are by far the best options for Cleveland because they are the two teams where the return package has to contain real assets. (Houston, to balance Anderaon; Boston because we don't have anything else to offer.) Of course, that matters not at all. LeBron will choose his destination and he will go there and the deal, if there is one, will reflect the reality that Cleveland has virtually no negotiating leverage.
I can't remember where I read it, but someone's sources basically said trying to trade Love is a certainty if LeBron walks. Question is for what? Love probably has positive trade value, but he seems a weird fit next to Markkanen, he'd hurt the Atlanta tank without being good enough on his own to get them in the playoffs, Sacto isn't giving up #2 and doesn't have its pick next year. You're probably looking for teams with expirings rather than cap space given the 80% rule. Love expires after '19 so it seems unlikely Gilbert would be willing to staple a pick to him to move him - if you're doing that, you'd do it to get rid of JR/Thompson/Hill/Clarkson before you did it for Love.
Indiana I could see. It isn't a destination for FA, but seems happy being a team that will clearly make the playoffs and has a second-round loss as a ceiling. They'd be looking to get Oladipo a little more help I think, and their own pick now or in the next few years is probably in the right range. They've got a few role players in the $10m range expiring in 2019 they could package to make the salaries work as well. I guess the Sixers might think about it if they strike out on all the free agents and a Kawhi trade.
If Lebron leaves they are certainly trading Love. Unfortunately he's not going to bring back a top five pick like he could have last year. Cap space is too tight and there aren't enough suitors for his skillset. I think his market most likely develops after free agency ends and teams that got left in the cold are still desperate to make a deal.
Lebron and Klutch have enough power to swing a sign and trade. That being said Cleveland is really in a bind because of their cap situation. Even a trade that offers positive value talentwise might be untenable for them because of the tax bill implications. Plus they need to bottom out and retain their '19 pick; a return that keeps them in the middle is mostly useless. All things considered Lebron just walking away might be better for them.
How good do people think Love is, in a vacuum? IE if we ignore skill set fit with any specific franchise and contract issues, who else in the NBA would y'all describe as being a player of essentially the same quality as Love?
It's a really tough question. We're never going to see the Minnesota version of Love again. However he was a bad fit next to Lebron and he never unlocked the secondary skill-set to thrive as a third option (like Bosh or Ray Allen did). He's still an All-Star caliber player, but not a franchise changer and not a no. 1 option on a contending team. That puts him somewhere in top 20-30 range with guys like Lowry, Beal, Gasol, Millsap, Griffin, etc.
If I had a no. 1 option on offense and a rim protector on defense I'd take a long look at him. Utah, Philly, Memphis, and Indiana all make sense fit-wise.
I wouldn't necessarily that it is based around Capela. Yes, he is a good defender who can switch on to just about anyone, but Tucker, Paul, and Ariza were just as imprtant, IMO.
I mention Philly because I think if LeBron goes there it could be via sign and trade to leave cap space for George or Cousins. Cleveland could end up with Fultz/Covington/Bayless/salary add ons, and Fultz could still hit. It’s better than what they’d get from Houston. The money would be tight for the Sixers, but they could probably pull it off.
I think Gilbert does have some limited power here. If he’s getting nothing significant in return that will help his team long term, he could just hold out to try and force LeBron to a better situation for Cleveland. Gilbert might be willing to cut his nose to spite his face here, especially since his face in this situation is pretty ugly to begin with. Or he can just threaten to for long enough in hopes LeBron will blink.
Maybe something like Milsap? Right down to the skillset that appears to be rapidly diminishing with age
I do wonder how it would work if Gilbert decided to play hardball in a scenario where LeBron chooses Houston but Gilbert doesn’t like the return for the salary he’d need to take on to accommodate it. Would LeBron just say, screw it, I’ll go to Team Y instead with Team Y being one of the ones that can sign him outright like Philly or LA?
I'm surprised there hasn't been any sign that LeBron might be considering New Orleans. I know they are over the cap but it's not as if they don't have the contracts for a sign-and-trade (it would be complicated, but Mirotic, Moore, Ajinca and Miller works). Obviously, from LeBron's perspective, teaming up with Davis, Holiday and potentially even Cousins (they'd be over the cap but I believe they could sign him using the Bird exception) would probably give him his best chance at challenging Golden State. I suppose New Orleans might need to sweeten the pot a bit to make Cleveland interested (though Mirotic has become one of the best shooting big men in the game, averaging nearly 17 a game on only 24mpg, and tying Horford for highest 3p% by a big) but they could easily add a pick or two.
EDIT: BTW, does anyone know if NBA rules allow for a double sign-and-trade? In other words, could Cousins be signed by NO and traded to Cleveland for LeBron (after Cleveland signs him)?
EDIT: BTW, does anyone know if NBA rules allow for a double sign-and-trade? In other words, could Cousins be signed by NO and traded to Cleveland for LeBron (after Cleveland signs him)?
It isn't likely to be pretty which is why to simply say "Oh, whichever team LeBron wants to go to can do a sign-n-trade"...….that may be the case other times and was common in the previous CBA, but this is Gilbert and LeBron in the ring with gloves off. He isn't going to take a couple role players and a low pick to facilitate LeBron ending up at his choice destination.
Dallas will also have max space for Capela. I'd be looking at them for a possible offer sheet.
Someone should try to offer sheet Capela right out of the box, at best you get Capela. At worst, you close some options on Houston acquiring Lebron.
I don't get this either.
I don't think Gilbert is taking some low level assets and/or draft picks that are long shots to be really valuable to take on dead money when his team is already in the repeater penalty on the luxury tax.
It's probably worth remembering that Gilbert tried to make a big splash with the fans the last time LeBron left too, eh?
What you are saying and what I am saying aren't in conflict. I think the actual value of facilitating a Lebron sign and trade is somewhere in the range of a couple late first round picks. That's what Cleveland got last time. That's essentially what the Clippers got for Chris Paul just in terms of present players rather than future assets. (Lou Williams and Patrick Beverly are probably of roughly equivalent value to a late first each and the rest of that deal was mainly filler.)
That said, that has to be the net value of the package. If Houston is taking back dead money, they have to be compensated for that too. Thus, the Houston conversation has a pretty steep draft pick price tag because they aren't just trading for Lebron, they are trading to get out from under the Anderson contract. Anderson's negative value is probably in the ballpark of a couple late firsts. Cleveland can probably bargain for Houston to do what the Nets did and not protect the picks, which may pay dividends on the back end.
With Philly, they don't need much help, so the return would be a lot lower. Bayless is a bad but expiring deal and doesn't make that much anyway and is really all they need to unload.
For Boston, any of Irving, Hayward, or Horford have more than enough positive value as assets to exceed the return expectations for this sort of deal. Whether Cleveland would ultimately spin them off for future talent or try to keep their roster together and reload is anyone's guess, but in either pathway, the Boston centerpiece delivers more value than what they are likely to get from anyone else and more value than the standard market return for this sort of deal.
To sum this up, my posting has been pushing back against the idea that Cleveland will be able to play teams against each other or get something like the #10 pick from Philly or the Kings or Memphis pick from Boston. I think all of those assets are too valuable for the context of a sign and trade deal.
Also, to those who will point to Gilbert, I suspect the Decision left him feeling a lot more vindictive than Lebron leaving this time will. And, even then, he ultimately agreed to a sign and trade, at the value of a few late firsts, and in a world where late firsts were viewed as significantly less valuable assets than they now are.
Not sure what this means in terms of info coming from his camp or if it’s more people speculating without knowledge.
Per multiple sources, there is a slim chance #LeBron will sign with either the #Celtics Warriors. The thought process is that chasing Kyrie or KD will not be particularly appealing at this point in his career.
The sources are really going out on a limb to suggest that two capped out teams won’t sign someone to a max contract.
Yeah, you could read between the line there--of course the Celtics won't "sign" him. They could trade for him.
Last edited:
Maybe, but I’m not sure I buy it’s Kyrie’s thing at this point. He was here about half a year, missed the playoffs, and team still made it within a game of the finals. Horford signed first, as well, and Brad and Danny are probably looked at more as the Creators at this point. Tatum has a real shot to become the image moving forward, but either way I personally wouldn’t look at the Celtics now and refer to them as Kyrie’s team. He also didn’t choose Boston, fwiw.
Or, he might like Kyrie getting kicked to the curb in favor of him. Gonna be a long month.
Feel pretty, pretty, pretty strongly that Durant wouldn't agree to be signed and traded to Cleveland.
I thought it was confirmed that Durant is opting in and is not planning to be traded anytime soon. GSW is not making that trade anyway.
It means he doesn't want to have to pit together a team that tries to compete with KD Warriors or KI Celtics.
Basically it just confirms what we've been saying: if LBJ wants to win championships, he needs to go to GSW or Cs. Anything else is wishcasting.
I'm not a fan of the Ball family at all, but that video actually made me like them more. Of course, I'm assuming they're laughing at themselves in that video. If they're being serious, then god help them.
Jordan Schultz is a hack. He throws shit out there and sometimes it's true. I'd take his LeBron sources with a grain of salt.
Edit: I mean, seriously, way to go out on a limb and say he isn't going to sign with the Warriors or Celtics.
Edit: I mean, seriously, way to go out on a limb and say he isn't going to sign with the Warriors or Celtics.
Cousins? I think not. The sixers can't really get to two maxes. They don't have many people who make a lot, and one of those is Embiid. The other ones are already in your example.
Plus they are not giving up Fultz already for nothing.
That is fricking awful. Omg.