Hanley Ramirez
Verified account @HanleyRamirez 10m10 minutes agoHi my people, went in for left shoulder surgery today, keep me in prayers. Coming back stronger in ‘18, love you all #RedSoxNation @RedSox
Hanley undergoes left shoulder surgery
- Thread starter DeadlySplitter
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Hanley Ramirez
Verified account @HanleyRamirez 10m10 minutes agoHi my people, went in for left shoulder surgery today, keep me in prayers. Coming back stronger in ‘18, love you all #RedSoxNation @RedSox
Does this keep him out for any part of '18 (enough to not have his option vest) or is that too insensitive?
No way to know how long recovery is since we don't know what the surgery was for or how invasive it was...i.e. arthroscopy would be less invasive/shorter recovery than if they opened him up and did something extensive.
And holy shit, yes, too insensitive. What kind of asshole wishes ill on someone in the hopes that a ball club they have no financial ties to gets to save some money? Regardless of recovery time, if this allows Hanley to return to his 2016 form (another season which followed recovering from a shoulder injury), there should be no qualms about his option vesting.
If you're too insensitive, I am too, because I was thinking along the same lines. I was thinking it would be great if he came back 100 percent healthy, around May 15.
I would love for Hanley to come back and make the Sox WANT to pick up the 2019 option by showing he's healthy and productive.
And he is the second player to have surgery since Dombrowski said after the season he didn't know of any players who needed it. Dave and the medical staff really need to communicate better.
I'm guessing this is the pre-photo, and the left shoulder is just exposed.
Looks like James Andrews is the listed doc.
Looks like James Andrews is the listed doc.
Aww, you should own that first post and edit in the rest. (I thought the same thing at first)
edit: Meanwhile, this is the second player who has had surgery since Dombrowski told the media that no players would be needing surgery
This takes trading him off the board for this offseason. Any moves that don't involve a 1B to upgrade the offense probably surround Hanley returning to 1B.
I was thinking more along the lines of not having him back for 2019 if he's still the same hitter he was this year.
If that option vests on plate appearances, the Sox are stuck with him and probably stopped from upgrading his role.
Money doesn't matter at all, it's the production, or lack thereof
However, if this works and he becomes his old hitting self, great, vest away
I guess we have to hope he's lying, or is he still busy traveling with Farrell wherever he goes?
Who was the first this offseason?
1. ?
2. Scott (left elbow)
3. Ramirez (left shoulder)
4. Rodriguez (left knee)
https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2017/10/17/hanley-ramirez-eduardo-rodriguez-both-have-surgery
What does the debridement do?
That isn’t quite the same as confirm tweets plus bandage pics. I thought you guys were saying there were 4 definite surgeries performed already.
Frankly, I was more than a little concerned it was Xander or Mookie with their respective hand/wrist problems.
Of course, Pedroia and Núñez probably both need offseason knee repair surgery. I just wasn’t sure if they’d actually had it done yet.
Frankly, I was more than a little concerned it was Xander or Mookie with their respective hand/wrist problems.
Of course, Pedroia and Núñez probably both need offseason knee repair surgery. I just wasn’t sure if they’d actually had it done yet.
Removes dead or damaged tissue.
Debridement who have no idea what “debridement” means but put it in their stories anyway are lazy oafs.
I think relying on Hanley for anything next year is a mistake at this point. It's probably safe to assume some of his decline is age related, and it isn't all the shoulder. Maybe it makes it more likely they keep Brentz.
Ortiz didn't exactly decline as he got older, I don't think we can assume Hanley's age had anything to do with this year's performance. Heck, he's only 33 and his numbers last year were his best since 2013 and 2nd-best since 2009.
He's also been injured pretty much every year since 2013 and not nearly the same player he was prior to 2010. His last 4 years, he's put up an overall line of .266/.338/.455. 33 is also old in baseball. David Ortiz is the exception, not the rule. You can make the argument when he's healthy, he rakes... but he's never healthy and he's only getting older.
You could also make the argument Hanley has been in decline for 7 years. There is his 2013 season, but it's 86 games.
If we're going to start using an extreme outlier like Ortiz as our yardstick for offensive player aging, we're going to be surprised by a lot of sudden declines.
I guess the question is, would you take 147G .286/30/111 with an .866 OPS? Because that's what he did last year. I think it's far too soon to speculate about an age-related decline.
Nelson Cruz .924 OPS 5.5 WAR @ Age 37
Encarnacion .881 OPS 4.6 WAR @ Age 34
Votto 1.032 OPS 9.6 WAR @ Age 34
Gardner .778 OPS 5.2 WAR @ Age 34
Mauer .801 OPS 4.4 WAR @ Age 34
Zimmerman .930 OPS 4.0 WAR @ Age 33
Beltre .915 OPS 3.7 WAR @ Age 38
33 is not old for baseball these days, especially for DH's.
And in 2015, Hanley hit .249/.291/.426. Would you take 147 games of that? 2015 and 2017 are Hanley's worst offensive seasons of his career. You also named 7 players, one of who has been in age related decline for awhile now.
How about Carlos Beltran? Dustin Pedroia? Mike Napoli? Ian Kinsler? JJ Hardy? Shin Soo Choo? Brian McCann or about 50 other dudes on this list. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2017-standard-batting.shtml
The vast majority of players start to decline.
How about Carlos Beltran? Dustin Pedroia? Mike Napoli? Ian Kinsler? JJ Hardy? Shin Soo Choo? Brian McCann or about 50 other dudes on this list. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2017-standard-batting.shtml
The vast majority of players start to decline.
Like it or not I think Hanley is on the Pablo train. By that I mean he has a legitmate reason for sucking (shoulder) and makes a ton of money. Barring injury he is going to be in the starting lineup at DH (possibly first base) when the season opens. If he still sucks in June, well we all saw what happen with Pablo.
It's really unfortunate that the day after the season he aggravated his shoulder so bad it needed surgery.
Hanley's option automatically vests if he is released, right? We can't just drop him if he sucks in the first half?
Definitely seems like he was playing through the injury to make sure this option vested. Hopefully we get a great year out of him next year because he will probably be a member of the 2019 Red Sox
Definitely seems like he was playing through the injury to make sure this option vested. Hopefully we get a great year out of him next year because he will probably be a member of the 2019 Red Sox
2015 and 2017 also happen to be years in which he had demonstrable shoulder injuries. His 2016, during which his shoulders were presumably healthy, he was quite productive (right in line with his career averages). He may very well be in age-related decline, but it has been exacerbated by injury. The decline of a healthy Hanley might not be nearly as precipitous as an injured Hanley.
And I think people have over-reacted to the Ortiz comparison. No one is saying Hanley's going to be massively productive through age 40 like Ortiz was. But Ortiz did have some significant down times in his age 33-34 seasons, to the point of people saying he was toast and calling for him to be DFA, and he bounced back at age 35 & 36 to have very good seasons (let alone what he did age 37-40). And those down years can be traced directly to injuries, specifically the wrist injury that hampered the second half of his 2008 season and lingered beyond that. Once the wrist was 100% healthy, he was highly productive again.
No reason Hanley can't also do that after the shoulder is healthy again. And he's only got to do it for a max of two years...not until he's 40.
He could, I just hope the Redsox don't go into 2018 expecting Hanley to put up 30 HRs and an .866 OPS. At this point, I'm not sure you can go into a season expecting Hanley Ramirez to stay healthy.
I'm not sure what choice they really have. Maybe he won't put up 30 with an .866 OPS, but it's not unreasonable to expect improvement from his 2017 performance. They can't really operate this winter as if Hanley won't be healthy and on the field in 2018. So whatever back-up plans they do put in place will be inexpensive and flexible...meaning stashable in the minors or able to play elsewhere on the field/in the lineup.
Actually 2011 was his worst year depending on what stats you value. But the point remains, it would be silly to write him off as old and therefore incapable of being productive again when he had such a strong season last year.
The 7 players I listed all had a strong 2017 season, it doesn't matter if their numbers may not have been as good as their age 24-29 seasons or whatever age you want to compare. Some sort of decline in production happens to the vast majority of players prior to them turning 30, as no player continually maintains or improves their numbers year after year from the time they enter the majors until they turn 30 (Nomar did it from age 22 to age 26, which was pretty damn good).
Beltran had a .910 OPS at Age 34, bad example.
Pedroia had his best offensive season last year since 2011, bad example.
Napoli last year had his best offensive season since 2013, bad example.
Kinsler last year had his best offensive season since 2008 and won his first GG, really bad example.
Hardy last year had his best offensive season since 2013, bad example.
McCann this year had his best offensive season since 2013, bad example.
Choo I'll give you, he's been in decline due to health reasons. You can argue age on that one if you want.
That's a whole lotta "old" players who did anything but permanently decline. If you were talking about just defensive metrics, then I would agree there's a lot of age-related decline that begins mid-30's. But since we're talking about Hanley, who is primarily a DH-type now, that's why I've been mentioning offensive numbers only.
I was probably too hyperbolic in my original post. He's going to play. I just wouldn't be surprised if he put up a line similar to this year. Here's hoping it's mostly injury related and he's able to stay healthy for 2 full seasons. I think his injury may cost Brentz his FA.
So you are basically saying Hanley is in an age related decline, but arguing with me about it anyway? Cool.
edit: Also saying guys like Napoli had their best year since 2013 is incredibly misleading. He is clearly in an age related decline. Some of them have rebound years sandwiched in between but the overall production is down. Plus, a lot of injuries are due to age. You can't really separate the two. Older players get injured more.
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No, what I'm clearly saying is that one downward year by a 33-year-old hitter like Hanley is not an indication of a decline. Especially if the injury that contributed to the down year can be rectified, which we don't know yet.
Last year was Napoli's worst since 2013? 34 HR, 101 RBI, .800 OPS?
Last year wasn't Kinsler's best since 2008? What other years since 2008 did he have a 122 OPS+, not to mention a GG?
Both players excelled in their Age 34 seasons, I have no idea what you're looking at to make those claims about them. How about supporting them with evidence, please.
I thought you meant 2017, were they proceeded to go back to the crap they were before 2016. And yeah, you clearly did say Hanley Ramirez is in age related decline. You said the vast majority of players hit that decline before 30. You are trying to have it both ways. You also ignore all the bad years those players have put up outside of that "1 good season" in between. If you really think Mike Napoli isn't in age related decline, you are a troll.
My point has always been, one down year after Age 32 does not indicate the player is in an age-related decline because quite often they will have up years after Age 33. Where did I say Hanley is in an age-related offensive decline? If I wrote it I'll own it, but I don't see where I wrote it. And it wouldn't make sense since I've already pointed out last year was his best since 2013 and 2nd-best since 2009. One injury-plagued down year doesn't make an "age-related decline".
You said some sort of decline happens in production before 30. Why does that decline happen if not because of age? And if Hanley is excluded from that, why? Obviously 1 year doesn't indicate anything, but with Hanley Ramirez it isn't 1 year. Plus 2013 was only 89 games and 4 or 5 seasons ago depending on how you want to count it. You act as if it was yesterday and that it has more weight than 2015 and 2017. Hell, why not go further back than 2013. His 5 worst seasons of his career have come in the last 7 years.
Yes, declines happen to pretty much every player. Plenty of players start out with one or two good years, or they improve for a couple years, then decline to the point where they are out of the majors by Age 32. It happens for a number of reasons to hitters. Pitchers learn how to pitch them, and the hitters fail to make adjustments. Or the hitter begins dealing with chronic health issues. Or perhaps the hitter overachieved so much in a brief period of time that there was nowhere to go except down. For example, George Brett had a 1.118 OPS in 1980 at Age 27, it dropped down to .846 at Age 28 and then .802 at Age 31. But guess what? Six years later at Age 37 he led the league in batting average and had a .902 OPS.
In 1986 Fisk at Age 38 batted .221 with a .600 OPS ... went up to .782 at Age 39 and then .919 at Age 40.
Boggs batted .259 at Age 34, he then batted .313 during his Age 35-39 years.
Pick pretty much any hitter and chances are they had down years before rebounding. To blame it on age is akin to automatically assuming anyone over the age of 65 who gets into a car accident must have been at fault because of age-related declining driver skills.
So no, Hanley is not excluded from it. Hardly anybody is.
Which I did to show even the greatest hitters had mid-career declines before bouncing back.
But be my guest, pick a few hitters who played for a minimum of 7 years. Whomever you want. And I assure you each will have at least one mid-career dip, before either rebounding or ending their MLB career.
I would guess that close to 100% of players who had a mid-career dip either rebounded or ended their careers.
Exactly! So that's why I'm saying, just because Hanley had one at Age 33 it doesn't mean it's age related therefore it doesn't mean he can't bounce right back with another 2016-ish season next year or the year after.
We as a fanbase have gone through this so many times, "Oh so-and-so had such a bad season, and he's in his mid-30's now, so he's probably done. Father Time has caught up with him."
Heck, how many people here were calling for the release of Ortiz back in 2009 when he had a career-low .794 OPS .... and ironically, at the exact same Age 33.
We as a fanbase have gone through this so many times, "Oh so-and-so had such a bad season, and he's in his mid-30's now, so he's probably done. Father Time has caught up with him."
Heck, how many people here were calling for the release of Ortiz back in 2009 when he had a career-low .794 OPS .... and ironically, at the exact same Age 33.
We don't have to reinvent this wheel.
This chart is based on year-to-year pairs: it's an aggregate of about 21,500 player-season-pairs between 1950 and 2008. That is, this chart contains, say, Mo Vaughn's slight improvement from his age 23 to age 24 seasons, his breakout between ages 24 and 25, etc., up to his collapse between ages 34 and 35. All of that is aggregated with everybody else, and this curve is the result; in the article linked above, Lichtman gets into how he weights player seasons to avoid weird seasons, like Sandoval's 2016 when he had 7 PA and a .143 OPS at age 29, mucking up the trend.
There are other methodologies, and some of them find different things. Some place the peak a bit later, around 29. Some say that hitters no longer improve as much in their early 20s, perhaps because teams are doing a better job evaluating when minor leaguers are ready for the Show, and promote fewer players prematurely than they might have in the past. But they all show the same thing for the mid to late 30s.
Are there outlier seasons, and seasons contrary to the trend? Absolutely. But there are outliers in both directions. For every George Brett-style renaissance, there's a Vernon Wells: a player who hangs on because of a long and expensive contract.
My point is that you can use individuals to tell any story. Carl Crawford followed a 7-win season at age 28 with a 0-win season at age 29, and then was worth 3.4 WAR the rest of his five year career. Someone saying he was done after his terrible year in 2011 would have been mostly right. (He had an okay year in 2014, I guess.)
So yes, you're right, some players bounce back from injury in their 30s to reclaim previous levels of play. [edit] But the chart suggests that these players — many of whom are memorable! — are not the norm. Are these individuals a better guide to Hanley's prognosis than the aggregate overall trend of thousands of players?
If anything the aging curves may be too rosy, because most players whose play collapses in their 30s drop out of the sample altogether. I doubt Sandoval's likely to see much MLB playing time in 2018, for example — although I could imagine him DHing in the KBO, maybe.
Looking at that aging curve, though, Hanley's decline from age 32 to 33 is already an outlier in its severity (about 26 batting runs according to FG; I don't want to bring defense into it because of the apples/oranges issues raised by the 1B-to-DH move). He was only supposed to have declined about 2-3 runs this year. If he actually follows the aggregate trend from age 32 to 34 (about a 6-run drop), that will mean a substantial improvement next year, and a performance that's much closer to his 2016 than his 2017.
In other words, projecting him to be much better next year doesn't require us to assume he's a freak of nature.
In other words, projecting him to be much better next year doesn't require us to assume he's a freak of nature.