He could be ready as soon as the 2nd half of this year. Doubront could be out of the rotation and none of the prosects att Pawtucketare pitching well. If it isn't until next year there could be two spots with Peavy probably leaving.
Henry Owens
- Thread starter thehitcat
- Start date
I posted this in another thread but thought it should go here too….
Owens: 12.2 ip, 6 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 18 k
Obviously just two starts, but how long does he stay in AA?
FWIW, here are his 8 total career starts in AA (totals): 43.0 ip, 24 h, 8 r, 6 er, 17 bb, 64 k, 1.26 era, 0.95 whip, 13.4 k/9
I mean, good grief.
Owens: 12.2 ip, 6 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 18 k
Obviously just two starts, but how long does he stay in AA?
FWIW, here are his 8 total career starts in AA (totals): 43.0 ip, 24 h, 8 r, 6 er, 17 bb, 64 k, 1.26 era, 0.95 whip, 13.4 k/9
I mean, good grief.
He's always thrown that hard, and the hope was as he filled out he might add a mph or two, that is likely to decrease in probability though soon.
I think this is one major reason why the scouts always talk about him as a 2/3 rather than an ace.
His Change is a great pitch and his curve is still developing. Lefty with a deceptive FB and good to great off speed stuff, and the stuff is very good, is going to be very useful but not a true ace.
And yeah there are concerns about him becing able to keep it up at higher levels unless the control took a jump. Potentially it has, he lost his release point yesterday when he got hit hard, and that's all it takes. Loses his release point and leaves stuff up going to be not great results.
I think this is one major reason why the scouts always talk about him as a 2/3 rather than an ace.
His Change is a great pitch and his curve is still developing. Lefty with a deceptive FB and good to great off speed stuff, and the stuff is very good, is going to be very useful but not a true ace.
And yeah there are concerns about him becing able to keep it up at higher levels unless the control took a jump. Potentially it has, he lost his release point yesterday when he got hit hard, and that's all it takes. Loses his release point and leaves stuff up going to be not great results.
Owens' minor league stats remind me of a left handed Yusmeiro Petit. Petit was young (a year younger by league than Owens) and dominant racking up strike outs, though with average or slightly below average velocity. Petit thrived with arm action and a killer change, just like Owens.
I'm not trying to be a downer, and I'm certainly not predicting doom and gloom for Owens, but I have some tempered expectations. I do think he'll eventually be a good 3 starter, but I suspect he'll take his share of lumps. He simply won't have the margin of error other, more high velocity pitchers, have. Of course, I'm still holding out hope for a velocity bump as he continues to fill out.
I'm not trying to be a downer, and I'm certainly not predicting doom and gloom for Owens, but I have some tempered expectations. I do think he'll eventually be a good 3 starter, but I suspect he'll take his share of lumps. He simply won't have the margin of error other, more high velocity pitchers, have. Of course, I'm still holding out hope for a velocity bump as he continues to fill out.
Owens is also 5" taller with a proportionately larger wingspan which certainly makes up for some velocity. Regardless, control, as always, is going to be far more important than a couple mph.LeftyTG said:
derekson said:
Lee's on a short list of pitchers with complete control of their arsenal. He can throw any of his pitches for a quality strike.
Even then, it took Lee 6 years to figure it out.
Sprowl said:
Right now, I think it's a combination of deception and a plus changeup is too advanced a combination for the hitters he's facing. I don't have evidence for you, but if we were able to see the movement inflection point between his fastball and change, we'd see that it's practically right on top of the plate, pushing his functional fastball velocity up into the 96-97 range. Combine that with great arm action on the change, and the deceptive delivery (I don't think that's going away either, it's much more about hiding the ball with his gumby-ass body than a funky release), it's just too much for developing hitters to adjust to.
Normally I'm a big believer in the notion of a mostly flat talent level between AA and AAA, but Owens is a guy for whom I'm mostly discounting his Portland numbers as irrelevant to projecting his MLB future. He needs to get into Pawtucket; it'll be very hard to trust the data until he starts facing veterans.
TL
R I think the problem set Owens presents to hitters is sort of optimized to eat young guys for lunch and be solved by tricks learned via experience.
JimBoSox9 said:
Right now, I think it's a combination of deception and a plus changeup is too advanced a combination for the hitters he's facing. I don't have evidence for you, but if we were able to see the movement inflection point between his fastball and change, we'd see that it's practically right on top of the plate, pushing his functional fastball velocity up into the 96-97 range. Combine that with great arm action on the change, and the deceptive delivery (I don't think that's going away either, it's much more about hiding the ball with his gumby-ass body than a funky release), it's just too much for developing hitters to adjust to.
Normally I'm a big believer in the notion of a mostly flat talent level between AA and AAA, but Owens is a guy for whom I'm mostly discounting his Portland numbers as irrelevant to projecting his MLB future. He needs to get into Pawtucket; it'll be very hard to trust the data until he starts facing veterans.
TL
Great post, spot on.
Sprowl said:
Lots of deception, as well as a great changeup. Would be great if he had an above average breaking ball, but haven't seen that yet. The Cliff Lee thought is nice, but hard to expect that kind of command to develop.
I think the upside comp for Owens is Cole Hamels type, but that's still a ways off. The hope was that since he was throwing 90 at a young age and had a projectable body, he might get up to 93-94 in time. As LondonSox said, thats unfortunately becoming less likely now.
What's so special about AAA?
The normal opinion is that the jump to AA is the big leap.
I don't get that point at all.
The normal opinion is that the jump to AA is the big leap.
I don't get that point at all.
I think the point was that the older players in AAA, including both the most talented prospects and AAAA guys, will be less likely to fall for Owens' deception than the guys in AA who may be more talented players overall but have less experience figuring out such pitching. In any case, I'm not sure what we're learning from keeping him at AA. He needs to find some hitters who present a challenge, whatever level that may be. But I suspect that will be soon.LondonSox said:
M
MentalDisabldLst
Guest
Jon Lester didn't have the greatest control in the minors either. As a 19-year-old in A and AA ball, and a 20yo returning to AA, neither did this guy. I'm not too worried about Owens, he doesn't have to have a Josh Beckett-like minor league career in order to fulfill his promise in the bigs.
On the other end of the spectrum, some players have a slow, Quisenberry-like rise to the majors, where nobody believes in them until their results are good enough and consistent enough that "baseball people" are willing to overlook the fact that it doesn't look all that extraordinary. Given that he is getting more hype than any prospect not currently on the 25-man, I don't think Owens will have that problem either.
On the other end of the spectrum, some players have a slow, Quisenberry-like rise to the majors, where nobody believes in them until their results are good enough and consistent enough that "baseball people" are willing to overlook the fact that it doesn't look all that extraordinary. Given that he is getting more hype than any prospect not currently on the 25-man, I don't think Owens will have that problem either.
Sprowl said:
I don't mean to speak for JBS — please correct me if I'm wrong — but I think what he's saying is that he sells his changeup so well that it is indistinguishable from the fastball longer than the the typical CU/FB combo.
It occurs to me that this might be helped by being almost seven feet tall, not only because his stride brings his release point so close to the plate, but also because the downward plane on his fastball might "hide" the break on his change for an additional moment.
Sprowl said:
Sorry man, I didn't mean to ignore you; these mL threads just vanish quick into the nether pages.
Anyways, what I meant was just the point of differentation between the fastball and change from the perspective of the hitter. In a nutshell, fastball velocity doesn't really matter. What matters to me as a hitter is fastball velocity plus how far away it is when I can tell it's a fastball. If you throw 91* and I can pick up the fastball 15* feet away, I can hit you. If you add a pitch that looks to me like your fastball up to 10* feet, you just added a couple* of MPH to your functional fastball velocity, because I'm now waiting longer to start my swing than I really want to.
That point where I can tell the difference between your FB and other pitches is the inflection point. How close it is to the plate can increase or decrease the functional velocity of your fastball. Changeups are sort of the classic pitch for this effect because the release and spin make it more difficult for most hitters to differentiate from a fastball than curves/sliders. I think Owens' FB looks like it's 97 to these kids in AA, he makes it worse on them with polished arm action (not tipping his hand) and then tops it all off with a deceptive delivery. Oh, and he's lefty, and everybody friggin hates facing lefties. It's just a talent level break producing maybe-untrustworthy numbers, like when Alabama plays a directional school in week 1.
This would be best illustrated by being able to pause one of those six-in-one pitcher gifs, but we have the best example going in-house: Koji. He's got a nothing straight fastball (which he spots just lovely, to be sure), and hitters consistently make it look like it's Verlander's best. It's because they're waiting for that goddamn splitter to fucking drop, and by the time it doesn't - it's already over.
*All numbers wrong or your money back, with distance all I can usually manage is "closer" and "farther"
Thanks for that post JimBo. That's good info in an easy to understand way. I have always gotten that some pitcher are more deceptive than others, and can see it on TV, but never really understood why, and that helps.
I forget who it was, but some decent batter described facing Randy Johnson as a flurry of knees and elbows and a hand reaching halfway to the plate before you even had a chance to pick up the ball and figure out the pitch. Some shorter guys just hide it well, and there are the Tiants of the world. If you do it right, those gyrations seem like they should definitely make it much harder on the batter.
I was at Owens' start last night. I wasn't paying as close attention as I might have, because I was at the game with an Argentine friend. It was his second baseball game, but he still required all the explanation you might expect.
Unlike the last start of his I saw, Owens had the curveball working. With three pitches working, he got much better results, taking a no-hitter into the eighth. The Fisher Cats still tried to lay off the breaking pitches, and drew more than their share of walks, but they made precious little hard contact, and I lost count of the swinging strikes. 7 2/3, 1 H, 2 R/ER, 5 BB, 6 SO.
Deven Marrero saved the no-no early on (third inning, maybe?), when a hard shot glanced off Meneses' glove. Marrero reversed direction immediately, gloved the ball and threw a bullet to first to get the out. It might have been called an error on Heiker, but it would have been a really tough error: the ball was smashed. That was the first really beautiful play I've seen from him. My friend was quite impressed.
Aaron Sanchez, the Jays' top prospect and the opposing starter, was downright awful. He stifled the Sea Dogs the first time through the order, mostly with 95+ heat, but had no real deception or secondary pitches, and they were all over him from the third. Walks from Wilkerson and Marrero and a single from Betts loaded the bases, and Shaw cleared them with a double.
From there it was a romp. 8-2 Sea Dogs.
Unlike the last start of his I saw, Owens had the curveball working. With three pitches working, he got much better results, taking a no-hitter into the eighth. The Fisher Cats still tried to lay off the breaking pitches, and drew more than their share of walks, but they made precious little hard contact, and I lost count of the swinging strikes. 7 2/3, 1 H, 2 R/ER, 5 BB, 6 SO.
Deven Marrero saved the no-no early on (third inning, maybe?), when a hard shot glanced off Meneses' glove. Marrero reversed direction immediately, gloved the ball and threw a bullet to first to get the out. It might have been called an error on Heiker, but it would have been a really tough error: the ball was smashed. That was the first really beautiful play I've seen from him. My friend was quite impressed.
Aaron Sanchez, the Jays' top prospect and the opposing starter, was downright awful. He stifled the Sea Dogs the first time through the order, mostly with 95+ heat, but had no real deception or secondary pitches, and they were all over him from the third. Walks from Wilkerson and Marrero and a single from Betts loaded the bases, and Shaw cleared them with a double.
From there it was a romp. 8-2 Sea Dogs.
I was also at Owens start last night, and what a start it was taking a no hitter into the 8th! 7 2/3's, 6k 5 walks and 2ER. At least two of those walks came in the 8th (also when he let in the 2 runs) when he threw about 7 consecutive walks. This was on a cold night after he had been consistently sitting down between innings for long periods of time as the Sea Dogs lineup destroyed the Fisher Cats pitching.
Through those first 7 innings he only threw 79 pitches, gave up no earned runs, had I believe all 6k's and either 2 or 3 walks.
One question, I saw him throw some loopy weird pithc at 68mph a couple of times, what in hell was it? I'm pretty sure I saw his curve at 78pm, was the 68mph ball a bad curve or is he experimenting with an ephus like pitch?
Through those first 7 innings he only threw 79 pitches, gave up no earned runs, had I believe all 6k's and either 2 or 3 walks.
One question, I saw him throw some loopy weird pithc at 68mph a couple of times, what in hell was it? I'm pretty sure I saw his curve at 78pm, was the 68mph ball a bad curve or is he experimenting with an ephus like pitch?
And Tudor Fever and I were there last night too, right behind the plate. A real SoSH Mainer gathering.
That 68 MPH pitch was his slow curve, I think.
That 68 MPH pitch was his slow curve, I think.
He had the 2 curves when he was here in Greenville. It is not a new pitch.Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
Me too. I was down the line right behind 3rd base with the Mercy Hospital crowd. He looked free and easy last night at 90-92 and his change up was devastating for swinging third strikes.Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
Is this why he projects so high even with his 90-92 fastball? Two effective curves at different speeds seems like it could play even at higher levels, especially if his change is as nasty as everyone seems to say. I haven't had a chance to see him yet, but I am looking forward to getting to someday.Detts said:
BP has recently brought back/revamped their in-person scouting reports, and Chris Mellen wrote up a detailed report on Owens for today. I won't post the whole thing since it is behind a paywall, but here are some highlights:
Realistic Future Role: 4th Starter
Fastball Grade (present/future): 50/55
Change Grade: 60/60
Curve Grade: 45/50
Basically, he says that back end of the rotation is likely his spot for a few reasons, the primary one being that he doesn't have great command or finish on the FB, and with the velocity sitting from 89-91 he can't get away with missing up (which he does) to major league hitters. Loves the change, obviously, thinks that it will be effective at every level. Doesn't think that the curve is going to work at higher levels, too soft, so hitters have time to adjust even if it takes them a moment to identify it, and it doesn't have a sharp enough break.
It seems like he agrees with the crowd that believes that Owens is perfectly designed to succeed at levels where hitters aren't used to breaking balls and mainly work on hitting good velocity, but that unless he develops pin-point command his offerings won't fool big league batters.
Realistic Future Role: 4th Starter
Fastball Grade (present/future): 50/55
Change Grade: 60/60
Curve Grade: 45/50
Basically, he says that back end of the rotation is likely his spot for a few reasons, the primary one being that he doesn't have great command or finish on the FB, and with the velocity sitting from 89-91 he can't get away with missing up (which he does) to major league hitters. Loves the change, obviously, thinks that it will be effective at every level. Doesn't think that the curve is going to work at higher levels, too soft, so hitters have time to adjust even if it takes them a moment to identify it, and it doesn't have a sharp enough break.
It seems like he agrees with the crowd that believes that Owens is perfectly designed to succeed at levels where hitters aren't used to breaking balls and mainly work on hitting good velocity, but that unless he develops pin-point command his offerings won't fool big league batters.
smastroyin said:
JimBoSox9 said:
Right. I'm not saying he can't, and I'm not saying the Sox should deal him. I don't know what other teams think of Owens. I do know that he is a very highly-regarded prospect. I am saying that if the Sox think this report reflects what Owens is or is likely to become, but they can get something really good for him, then maybe they should move him.
Obviously if they think he's the future ace of the staff then they probably don't move him at all, for anything.
And of course, I have no clue what Owens is likely to become.
M
MentalDisabldLst
Guest
It seems like the questions about him have as much to do with whether the stuff that he has will play at upper levels, as whether or not he can succeed in AA. I don't think that we will know a lot more about that until he starts facing AAA/ML hitters, so until then we can just look at things like velocity, and can he throw strikes consistently.
Since the last update he's had 5 starts for a combined:
3-1, 29.2 IP, 3 ER, 0.91 ERA, 33K, 17BB, 10H, 0.91 WHIP, 10.01 K/9, 5.16 BB/9, 1.94 K/BB, 0HR.
Year to date:
5-3, 58.1 IP, 18 ER, 2.78 ERA, 59 K, 28 BB, 41 H, 1.18 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 5.86 BB/9, 1.55 K/BB, 3HR.
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=596064
3-1, 29.2 IP, 3 ER, 0.91 ERA, 33K, 17BB, 10H, 0.91 WHIP, 10.01 K/9, 5.16 BB/9, 1.94 K/BB, 0HR.
Year to date:
5-3, 58.1 IP, 18 ER, 2.78 ERA, 59 K, 28 BB, 41 H, 1.18 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 5.86 BB/9, 1.55 K/BB, 3HR.
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=596064
I know the Paw Sox rotation is packed, but how much more does Owens have to prove in AA?
In his AA career he's
14-4, 128 IP, 84 H, 146 K, 2.18 ERA, 1.078 WHIP. At 21, he's young for the EL but he's been an absolute monster. Is the goal to open up a rotation slot for RDLR or make a trade involving some of our minor league pitching to make a spot for him or what?
In his AA career he's
14-4, 128 IP, 84 H, 146 K, 2.18 ERA, 1.078 WHIP. At 21, he's young for the EL but he's been an absolute monster. Is the goal to open up a rotation slot for RDLR or make a trade involving some of our minor league pitching to make a spot for him or what?
Probably around the right time frame for a promotion, given he's absolutely dominated for more than half a year at AA (including last year). The BB rate is still a little high but that seems to be the case with all the AAA guys too so not a great reason to hold him back. In the worst case AAA could go to 6 man rotation or use more piggyback starts for a guy like Wright, for whom that would be closer to his ML role anyway (basing that off the Wakefield experience).
http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/post?id=2519
Kieth Law says that HO has the best changeup in the Futures Game. So we got that going for us.
Kieth Law says that HO has the best changeup in the Futures Game. So we got that going for us.
Mike Antonellis @seadogsradio 32m
Henry Owens becomes the first pitcher in professional baseball w/13 wins. 1st pitcher in franchise history to win 9 straight starts.
Henry Owens becomes the first pitcher in professional baseball w/13 wins. 1st pitcher in franchise history to win 9 straight starts.
IF Owens handles AAA anything like he's handled AA, one would think the Sox will have a difficult time keeping him out of Boston next year. Maybe not to start the season. But eventually and even being on the opening day roster wouldn't be shocking. There are lots of variables, I appreciate. But it's hard to keep a prospect like Owens, who seems to dominate at every level, down.
This promotion isn't a shocker given the amount of AAA starters now in Boston; it is still a nice piece of news.
This promotion isn't a shocker given the amount of AAA starters now in Boston; it is still a nice piece of news.
I think it's insanity to project anything sooner than a Sept 2015 cup of coffee. He's far more likely to have AAA bumps than not. Realistically if he's doing the spot start I-95 shuttle thing, or in the bullpen, by mid-2016, I'd still be pretty happy.
You could be right as to his experience in AAA but the question was premised on him performing in AAA along the lines that he has in AA. You may reject the premise and you may be right. But if that indeed happens, then do the Sox get him up to Boston faster?JimBoSox9 said:
JimBoSox9 said:
It's possible, but I'm curious as to why you think that. Isn't it generally accepted that the difference between AA and AAA represents one of, if not the smallest gap in competition between two levels of professional baseball?
rodderick said:
There's reason to believe that the move from AA to AAA will be particularly telling in Owens' case, since one of the biggest differences between those levels is the presence of experienced professional hitters at AAA who are used to dealing with pitchers with good changeups (and know how to lay off it and wait for the fastball). AA hitters might be nearly as talented (or even moreso) but they just don't have the experience to handle a guy like Owens.