Henry Owens

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Snodgrass'Muff said:
Small sample sizes aren't useless, so long as we take them in the proper context. So far (including his brief stint last year), Owens has allowed 15 earned runs over 15 2/3 innings. He's allowed 18 hits, has walked 8, struck out 11 and been taken deep twice. While the sample is small, major league hitters have annihilated him. He's very clearly not ready and this spring does serve as a data point to support that opinion.
 
Can I just point out that there probably isn't a single person on the planet who thought he was ready for the majors? Probably including Owens himself.
 
I mean, the guy has had all of 38 innings in AAA.
 

Plympton91

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Snodgrass'Muff said:
Small sample sizes aren't useless, so long as we take them in the proper context. So far (including his brief stint last year), Owens has allowed 15 earned runs over 15 2/3 innings. He's allowed 18 hits, has walked 8, struck out 11 and been taken deep twice. While the sample is small, major league hitters have annihilated him. He's very clearly not ready and this spring does serve as a data point to support that opinion.
The problem with this reasoning is that it assumes Owens' number one goal in those outings was to pitch a clean inning, and that's probably a 50/50 proposition at best.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Plympton91 said:
The problem with this reasoning is that it assumes Owens' number one goal in those outings was to pitch a clean inning, and that's probably a 50/50 proposition at best.
 
Sure, but if we're talking about whether he's ready for the major leagues or not, the fact that he's yet to succeed against hitters who are mostly at or near that level is an indicator that he's, in fact, not ready. Right now we have almost no indicators that he's ready and a few that suggest he's not. Given the context (his age and experience) it's probably a safe bet that he's not ready yet.
 

soxhop411

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@IanCundall: Just got back from Henry Owens start. Will have a write up on @SoxProspects, but of note, Owens incorporated a new pitch, a slider tonight.
 

JimBoSox9

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I can't say I ever understand a guy messing around with a third pitch when they have one good offspeed and are lacking in fastball command. 
 

nighthob

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He needs at least three major league pitches if he ever hopes to pitch past AAA and apparently his curve wasn't it.
 

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JimBoSox9 said:
I can't say I ever understand a guy messing around with a third pitch when they have one good offspeed and are lacking in fastball command. 
 
Because that one good pitch, the changeup, usually works best against the opposite-handed hitter, while the slider would give Owens a weapon against the lefties. In Owens' case, he will be messing around with a fourth pitch, since his slow curve is already reasonably good. The fastball-slider combination is usually the most effective against the same-handed batter.
 
It's worth noting that Buchholz' fourth pitch, the slider-turned-cutter, has sometimes been his best weapon, and mastering the fourth pitch coincided with improving fastball command. Developing offspeed pitches does not mean that he ceases to work on his fastball.
 

JimBoSox9

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nighthob said:
He needs at least three major league pitches if he ever hopes to pitch past AAA and apparently his curve wasn't it.
 
We've seen time and time again that even at the MLB SP level, fastball command and movement can account for two or even three of those pre-reqs.
 
Sprowl said:
 
Because that one good pitch, the changeup, usually works best against the opposite-handed hitter, while the slider would give Owens a weapon against the lefties. In Owens' case, he will be messing around with a fourth pitch, since his slow curve is already reasonably good. The fastball-slider combination is usually the most effective against the same-handed batter.
 
It's worth noting that Buchholz' fourth pitch, the slider-turned-cutter, has sometimes been his best weapon, and mastering the fourth pitch coincided with improving fastball command. Developing offspeed pitches does not mean that he ceases to work on his fastball.
 
Well that's sort of my point.  Especially with his frame, having a mainly-lefty weapon as a 3rd or 4th pitch is a luxury, and not really worth spending time on when there's so much to be gained with the best weapon against everyone.  Which is not to say that general statement means I need to get particularly worked up about Owens flashing a couple sliders in a meaningless game.
 

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The write up on SoxProspects:
 
http://news.soxprospects.com/2015/04/owens-working-through-struggles-while.html
 
In particular, his plus changeup elicited several silly-looking swing-and-misses. However, there was another secondary pitch that provided more intrigue, as he also featured a slider, a pitch that, before this season, he had not thrown in his professional career.
 
“I threw it a little bit in high school, just messing around with it. It's definitely a new pitch,” Owens said. “I'm still throwing it in the ‘pen, trying to get comfortable with it.”
 
He said that he threw two in this particular outing, both in the high-70s mph range. It is a raw pitch that lags behind his other three at this point, but something that could develop quickly for a pitcher like Owens.
 
“I flashed it in these four outings so far this year. I've thrown it well, and I'm happy with it. I hung one tonight, but as a whole it's been pretty good,” the 22-year-old said.
 
 

Sprowl

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JimBoSox9 said:
Especially with his frame, having a mainly-lefty weapon as a 3rd or 4th pitch is a luxury, and not really worth spending time on when there's so much to be gained with the best weapon against everyone.
 
Your premise is that adding a slider will detract from improving fastball command. I reject the premise.
 
When the Red Sox sent Lester back down to the minors in 2006, they gave him instructions not to throw the cutter, which minor league hitters could not handle, instead forcing him to develop the changeup, which was at that time his fifth pitch. Lester also had problems with fastball command. Putting his best offspeed pitch away for a few months made him a better pitcher, and did not detract from the separate process of improving fastball command, which finally clicked in 2008. A slider may be a luxury against minor league hitters, but it is a necessity against major leaguers.
 

Wake's knuckle

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So... Owens' command seems to have regressed this year: after putting up K/9 around 10 and a BB/9 around 3 last year across two levels, this year he is only managing 7.3 K/9 and 6.3 (!) BB/9, with a decent ERA being supported by an unsustainable 204 BABIP Not exactly what we were hoping for. It doesn't seem like these numbers are skewed by one or two really bad starts. Cause for concern?
 

uncannymanny

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He can't be any worse than [insert underperforming starter]."

Oh I guess ERod is that guy this year.
 

ivanvamp

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Looking at b-ref, here are Owens' stats so far this year:
 
54.1 ip, 37 h, 19 er, 35 bb, 42 k, 3.15 era, 1.33 whip, 7.0 k/9
 
So the hits per innings is good, and the k rate is ok.  The walks are bad, but the era is solid.  He's just 22.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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OCD SS said:
on the SoxProspects podcast they said he hasn't been throwing his change up at all, instead working fastball/ curve to help improve those offerings. I have no way to verify that, but it would help to explain this season's numbers.
 
As in literally not at all? I can see forcing him to work on the other pitches and restrict his number of changeups, but I also would worry about him losing the feel for it if he can't throw it at all. 
 

Eddie Jurak

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
 
As in literally not at all? I can see forcing him to work on the other pitches and restrict his number of changeups, but I also would worry about him losing the feel for it if he can't throw it at all. 
I think they meant infrequently, or not in certain innings, or something.
 

Sprowl

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
 
As in literally not at all? I can see forcing him to work on the other pitches and restrict his number of changeups, but I also would worry about him losing the feel for it if he can't throw it at all. 
 
That was Jon Lester's assignment in one of his minor league stints in 2006 or 2007 -- learn how to pitch without throwing his best pitch, the cutter, at all. It certainly helped him master the changeup, and didn't harm his cutter in the long term (except for whatever went wrong with his feel for the pitch in 2012).
 
Lester had a full repertoire of fastball-sinker-changeup-cutter-curve, though. As far as I know, Owens has only the three (fastball, changeup and curve), and does not appear to have the command to survive on not-so-fastballs and sloppy curves alone.
 

JimBoSox9

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It's the last sentence that's the trick, though.  His ability to locate the fastball probably hadn't been showing the progress they hoped for.  He's the type of talent that's kind of a Catch-22: AAA hitters are so overwhelmed by his full arsenal that they don't provide him with enough incentive to improve, but an MLB promotion could go so ugly so fast he'd have no space to learn on the job.  So, tie one arm behind his back and use AAA hitters to show Owens what will happen when he can't put everyone away with changeups at will.  Better spot some quality fastballs for strike 3 or you're gonna have trouble ever going 5 innings or just straight get your tits lit, that's what.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Really great Fangraphs interview where HO talks a lot about pitch sequencing: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/henry-owens-on-his-rookie-season/
Wow, that's excellent. He sounds smart and confident. I was intrigued about the part where he says he sometimes misses the catcher's glove on purpose because he trusts his "ability to read a swing." Sort of the equivalent of shaking off a sign, but applied to location rather than pitch selection. I wonder if he does that as much when throwing to a more experienced catcher like Hanigan as he does to Swihart, who doesn't know the AL hitters much better than Owens does.
 

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Owens reads like he'll provide a nice long MLB career as a crafty lefty...even if he never has superstar stuff.
 

mt8thsw9th

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There's an implication that he might be traded because DD likes power arms so naturally Owens is expendable.

They still might trade him, depending on what kind of offers they receive for the 23-year-old lefty. While there’s no such thing as too much pitching, Boston does have depth in that department, and Dave Dombrowski likes power arms. Owens isn’t necessarily velocity deficient, but he’s more finesse than flamethrower.
Dombrowski is the same guy who gave a 41 year old Kenny Rogers 3 years and 24 million, so I don't think he cares more about power arms more than the average GM does.
 

foulkehampshire

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There's an implication that he might be traded because DD likes power arms so naturally Owens is expendable.

Dombrowski is the same guy who gave a 41 year old Kenny Rogers 3 years and 24 million, so I don't think he cares more about power arms more than the average GM does.
He also drafted Verlander and traded for Scherzer. Cherrypicking is fun!
 

jk333

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Owens reads like he'll provide a nice long MLB career as a crafty lefty...even if he never has superstar stuff.
This is often repeated. He only pitched 63 innings last year but compared to qualified pitchers he would have had the 14th best SwSt%. Including relievers he is 44th of 268 pitchers who threw at least 60 innings.

Henry Owens's problem is his control not his stuff. He needs command his fastball better. He also needs to make sure that he's generating more ground balls.
 

Sprowl

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This is often repeated. He only pitched 63 innings last year but compared to qualified pitchers he would have had the 14th best SwSt%. Including relievers he is 44th of 268 pitchers who threw at least 60 innings.

Henry Owens's problem is his control not his stuff. He needs command his fastball better. He also needs to make sure that he's generating more ground balls.
I think he can do the first, but there is very little he can do about the second -- his stuff makes him a flyball pitcher. He has no sinker, his best pitch is the changeup, which doesn't usually generate groundballs, and he works up in the zone with his fastball. That is unlikely to change -- he just has to make sure that most of those fastballs are above the letters, which is where the fastball command comes in.

I'd be surprised if Owens is traded: his ceiling as a starter is still quite high, which is the kind of starting depth that a contending team should have in reserve. The Red Sox could have three gold glove winners in the outfield, and that will help Owens out enormously.