History of the #1 pick

pokey_reese · May 18, 2017

You missed Oden, there are 17 players in that list.

DJnVa · May 18, 2017

If Fultz turns into something close to Kyrie Irving we should be ecstatic.

HomeRunBaker · May 18, 2017

Why is Oden on the bust list and not on the injury list? When he began that one season healthy he was a flat out beast considering all he had been through up to that point. It appeared he was going to put it all together.....and then he went down again.

It really isn't fair for these numbers to place Anthony Bennett in this group as a true #1 pick even though he was selected first in arguably the worst draft of all time. I'd take Bennett and Oden out of the bust group for those reasons to get a more true percentage of the success of a #1 pick.

The Talented Allen Ripley · May 18, 2017

I'd be curious to see a 20/20 hindsight look at each draft to determine who was ultimately the best player drafted, regardless of where he was picked. I bet the percentage for #1 overalls is relatively low, but that's the nature of the beast.

I'm far too lazy to do that myself.

moondog80 · May 18, 2017

BaseballJones said:
Like I said, YMMV. I don't think I'd categorize Oden as a flat out beast at any point in the NBA. His best season he averaged 11.1 points and 8.5 rebounds. That's not bad. But it's not exactly "beasting".

In 23.9 minutes per game, as a 22 year old coming off major injury.

HomeRunBaker · May 18, 2017

moondog80 said:
In 23.9 minutes per game, as a 22 year old coming off major injury.

In addition, Oden was having a stretch of some really good ones before he went down. Included in his final 7 games prior to what was essentially his career-ending injury were 16/5/3, 24/12/2, 18/8/4, 13/10/3, and 13/20/4.....all in limited minutes below 30 (the final game was in 30).

cheech13 · May 18, 2017

This is all opinion I guess but it seems like Bogut fits in much better with the Martin/Wiggins group than Bargnani. Sure injuries have derailed him a bit but he's had a long career, made an All-NBA team and started on a title team.

smastroyin · May 18, 2017

The Allented Mr Ripley said:
I'd be curious to see a 20/20 hindsight look at each draft to determine who was ultimately the best player drafted, regardless of where he was picked. I bet the percentage for #1 overalls is relatively low, but that's the nature of the beast.

I'm far too lazy to do that myself.

It's often too difficult to even pick a way, but here's my shot.

Before getting there, I'll just say that I hate Wiggins NBA career thus far. He's only 21 but a high volume 2 point shooter who turns the ball over and doesn't play defense isn't a good player in this league, no matter if you look at his scoring average positively.

2000. Might be the worst class of all time. Martin was kind of a JAG but so is everyone else. I guess you say Mike Miller (6) or Torkoglu (16)
2001. Pau Gasol at 3 is pretty clearly the best player.
2002. I guess we're giving Yao Ming the foot problem for his HoF "level" career, but most advanced stats don't love him. Boozer (34) probably had a better peak 1 or 2 years, and Nene (6) overall career but that's based on being decent for a long time.
2003. James. In a ridiculously talented draft, James is probably still worth any three other players (Wade, Bosh, Melo)
2004. Howard, but you can make an argument for Iguodola (9th)
2005. Chris Paul (4) by far.
2006. Millsap (47) or Lowry (24). Rondo (21), Gay (8), Roy (6) in the conversation but clearly a step lower
2007. Durant (2)
2008. Westbrook (4) is probably it, but there's also Love (5)
2009. Curry (7), with Harden (3) also better than Griffin
2010. Before the leg, George (10) was better than Wall. Wall has stepped up lately. Call it even. You also have Boogie at 5.
2011. Leonard (15). Sorry Kyrie fans, this isn't that close. I still put Butler (30) ahead of Kyrie but probably no point having that argument in a 4th thread. Also IT4 (60).

I think it's too early to tell after this:

2012. Davis I think is it, but Lillard (6) and Draymond Green (35) have been just about as good overall. The Brow probably ends up having the best career though.
2013. Giannis (15) already
2014. Jokic (41) probably keeps this spot even if Embiid (4) is healthy. And Embiid's health is why he dropped in the first place
2015. Towns is distancing himself quickly, but Porzingis (4) might challenge
2016. Really not enough info.

HomeRunBaker · May 18, 2017

Not being THE best player in your class doesn't classify you as a bust or not being worthy of being the #1 pick. You literally are competing with 29 other first round picks (and some good 2nd rounders) to be THE best player. Even Tiger in his prime didn't win every week when he had to beat every other player in the field.

In many of those years, the #1 pick was derailed by injuries as has been mentioned.

JakeRae · May 18, 2017

It is worth noting that all the busts are bigs. 1-1 guards have a really good track record of being at least very good players.

ehaz · May 18, 2017

JakeRae said:
It is worth noting that all the busts are bigs. 1-1 guards have a really good track record of being at least very good players.

How does Fultz compare as a player to Wall, Kyrie, and Rose at the time they were drafted?

Hagios · May 18, 2017

JakeRae said:
It is worth noting that all the busts are bigs. 1-1 guards have a really good track record of being at least very good players.

Another factor is how highly regarded the #1 prospect was. It seems as though most of the busts were considered pretty weak #1's before the draft, although my memory may be playing tricks on me.

DGreenwood · May 18, 2017

I'm curious where Fultz ranks as a prospect compared to the top prospects in the last 10 years or so (without regard to what those players did after they were drafted, just how they were viewed as prospects at the time). As others have already stated, there are huge disparities in the quality of each draft class so knowing how this year's top prospects compare to other classes would be helpful.

I've seen articles like this in the past but none that include this years draft class.

wade boggs chicken dinner · May 18, 2017

DGreenwood said:
I'm curious where Fultz ranks as a prospect compared to the top prospects in the last 10 years or so (without regard to what those players did after they were drafted, just how they were viewed as prospects at the time). As others have already stated, there are huge disparities in the quality of each draft class so knowing how this year's top prospects compare to other classes would be helpful.

I've seen articles like this in the past but none that include this years draft class.

Here's a little bit of statistical information comparing Fultz to past guards. http://fansided.com/2017/03/06/markelle-fultz-next-generation/

He's a better shooter than Wall and he's longer and has a better wingspan than Kyrie. It's hard to imagine that he won't be as good as Conley.

As Smastroyin and I debated the other day, yeah you'd pick the field over Fultz if you were betting on highest career win shares (or whatever statistic you'd want to use) and that would be true with most #1 picks, but the mark of a true number 1 pick is that there isn't another player in this draft that you'd bet on to have more all-star games than Fultz.

The Talented Allen Ripley · May 18, 2017

ehaz said:
How does Fultz compare as a player to Wall, Kyrie, and Rose at the time they were drafted?

ESPN's Jeff Goodman was on Dale & Holley yesterday and was asked that very question, he said Fultz would be ranked 4th, but wasn't far behind.

jsinger121 · May 18, 2017

The Allented Mr Ripley said:
ESPN's Jeff Goodman was on Dale & Holley yesterday and was asked that very question, he said Fultz would be ranked 4th, but wasn't far behind.

I wonder if Fultz wasn't on a shitty team and say a team like Kentucky, Duke and Memphis (at the time when Rose was there) would be nudging ahead of any of them?

smastroyin · May 18, 2017

Just to be clear, I have no trouble with Fultz as the clear #1 and have even said many times here he's the only prospect I prefer keeping the pick to trading the pick for. But, that is because I think he has a better chance to be great than any single one of Jackson, Tatum, Ball, etc.

If you could give me Jackson *and* Tatum instead of Fultz, I might be tempted. If you could give me those two plus another guy in the 10-15 range, I'd go for it. Although there are also roster issues and playing time to consider.

nighthob · May 18, 2017

Hagios said:
Another factor is how highly regarded the #1 prospect was. It seems as though most of the busts were considered pretty weak #1's before the draft, although my memory may be playing tricks on me.

Brown was fairly controversial at the time, there was a debate as to whether he, Chandler, or Curry were the best high school player in the US. Pau Gasol was at the top of the international pool, and there were people advocating for him at #1 as well. But the 2001 draft was considered one with a deep talent pool but a lot of starpower, which is why there was so much debate as to who should go first.

The 2006 draft (Bargnani) drew a lot of comparisons to 2001 (in terms of there being a lot of depth but not a lot of starpower), and Bargage got the nod at #1 over LaMarcus Aldridge due to the Darko factor, no one knew what he was going to be, but he could shoot, so everyone envisioned greatness over actual production (Chicago made the same mistake with Ty Thomas, looking at the athletic numbers and disregarding LMA's actual performance.)

Kenyon Martin was considered the best of the lot in one of the worst draft pools in league history (at the time, which even in retrospect turned out to be accurate). In 2013 Anthony Bennett was regarded as a baffling selection even by the standards of a pool widely considered to be the worst since 2000. Most people had Vic Oladipo as #1, and were baffled by Marcus Smart changing his mind since he was guaranteed a top three pick (and thank christ he Catholicked the 2013 draft).

cheech13 · May 18, 2017

I don't remember Oladipo being the consensus no. 1. That was Nerlens Noel's draft all the way up until the last couple weeks when the injury stuff started to really hamper him. I remember by that time you heard some people advocating Oladipo or even Porter but it wasn't like Bennett was completely outside that conversation. It was a crap draft and everything just kind of threw their hands in the air when it came to ranking those guys.

Kyrie was the no doubt pick by the time the draft came around, but he was hardly a lock given that he only played about 10 college games. In that sense, he reminds of me Fultz in that people are looking at the talent first and thinking about college performance second. I'd say Wall and Rose were more highly regarded, with Fultz and Kyrie being a little behind them. But even in the Rose draft there were still a lot of people that preferred Beasley.

DGreenwood · May 18, 2017

DGreenwood said:
I'm curious where Fultz ranks as a prospect compared to the top prospects in the last 10 years or so (without regard to what those players did after they were drafted, just how they were viewed as prospects at the time). As others have already stated, there are huge disparities in the quality of each draft class so knowing how this year's top prospects compare to other classes would be helpful.

I've seen articles like this in the past but none that include this years draft class.

Here's a similar article from last year. Link
Where do we think Fultz and Ball would slot in?

1. Greg Oden (2007)
2. Kevin Durant (2007)
3. Anthony Davis (2012)
4. Karl-Anthony Towns (2015)
5. Derrick Rose (2008)
6. Andrew Wiggins (2014)
7. John Wall (2010)
8. Blake Griffin (2009)
9. Michael Beasley (2008)
10. Jabari Parker (2014)
11. Ben Simmons (2016)
12. Joel Embiid (2014)
13. Brandon Ingram (2016)
14. Jahlil Okafor (2015)
15. O.J. Mayo (2008)
16. Kyrie Irving (2011)
17. D'Angelo Russell (2015)
18. Al Horford (2007)
19. LaMarcus Aldridge (2006)
20. Evan Turner (2010)

Devizier · May 18, 2017

I don't see how Oden doesn't fall into the "injuries killed him" bucket.

Jimbodandy · May 18, 2017

cheech13 said:
I don't remember Oladipo being the consensus no. 1. That was Nerlens Noel's draft all the way up until the last couple weeks when the injury stuff started to really hamper him. I remember by that time you heard some people advocating Oladipo or even Porter but it wasn't like Bennett was completely outside that conversation. It was a crap draft and everything just kind of threw their hands in the air when it came to ranking those guys.

Kyrie was the no doubt pick by the time the draft came around, but he was hardly a lock given that he only played about 10 college games. In that sense, he reminds of me Fultz in that people are looking at the talent first and thinking about college performance second. I'd say Wall and Rose were more highly regarded, with Fultz and Kyrie being a little behind them. But even in the Rose draft there were still a lot of people that preferred Beasley.

People hot on Fultz are looking at talent first and college performance second? Perhaps. But what about his college performance is not good? His numbers are phenomenal.

Auger34 · May 18, 2017

DGreenwood said:
Here's a similar article from last year. Link
Where do we think Fultz and Ball would slot in?

1. Greg Oden (2007)
2. Kevin Durant (2007)
3. Anthony Davis (2012)
4. Karl-Anthony Towns (2015)
5. Derrick Rose (2008)
6. Andrew Wiggins (2014)
7. John Wall (2010)
8. Blake Griffin (2009)
9. Michael Beasley (2008)
10. Jabari Parker (2014)
11. Ben Simmons (2016)
12. Joel Embiid (2014)
13. Brandon Ingram (2016)
14. Jahlil Okafor (2015)
15. O.J. Mayo (2008)
16. Kyrie Irving (2011)
17. D'Angelo Russell (2015)
18. Al Horford (2007)
19. LaMarcus Aldridge (2006)
20. Evan Turner (2010)

Personally, I think he would be #5 or #6 and no lower than 9. I remember Rose wasn't a great shooter when he came out but this was a bit before the pace and space revolution so there wasnt as big of a deal made about it.

cheech13 · May 18, 2017

Jimbodandy said:
People hot on Fultz are looking at talent first and college performance second? Perhaps. But what about his college performance is not good? His numbers are phenomenal.

In the sense that his college team was bad and they aren't holding that against him much because it was clear that the talent is there.

nighthob · May 18, 2017

cheech13 said:
I don't remember Oladipo being the consensus no. 1. That was Nerlens Noel's draft all the way up until the last couple weeks when the injury stuff started to really hamper him. I remember by that time you heard some people advocating Oladipo or even Porter but it wasn't like Bennett was completely outside that conversation. It was a crap draft and everything just kind of threw their hands in the air when it came to ranking those guys.

Nerlens Noel blew out his knee during the college season, it wasn't last minute stuff that came up. And that injury was going to cost him most of his rookie season, so it certainly wasn't "his draft". If he'd been allowed in as a high schooler the year before he would likely have been in the conversation for #1, but in 2013 the only real question was how far he was going to slide.

And Bennett's announcement led to laughs everywhere. Well, except TV where the announcers were confused. But he was considered a candidate for the LaRue Martin Award starting about five minutes after the selection was announced.

cheech13 · May 18, 2017

DGreenwood said:
Here's a similar article from last year. Link
Where do we think Fultz and Ball would slot in?

1. Greg Oden (2007)
2. Kevin Durant (2007)
3. Anthony Davis (2012)
4. Karl-Anthony Towns (2015)
5. Derrick Rose (2008)
6. Andrew Wiggins (2014)
7. John Wall (2010)
8. Blake Griffin (2009)
9. Michael Beasley (2008)
10. Jabari Parker (2014)
11. Ben Simmons (2016)
12. Joel Embiid (2014)
13. Brandon Ingram (2016)
14. Jahlil Okafor (2015)
15. O.J. Mayo (2008)
16. Kyrie Irving (2011)
17. D'Angelo Russell (2015)
18. Al Horford (2007)
19. LaMarcus Aldridge (2006)
20. Evan Turner (2010)

That's tough. Maybe between #12 (Embiid) and #13 (Ingram)? Although I could maybe buy as high as 9 or 10.

Sam Ray Not · May 18, 2017

LeBron should be his own category.

I also think there may be some recency bias in putting Yao ahead of Dwight. At their respective peaks (i.e. before Yao's foot issues and Dwight's back issues), I think Dwight was the more dominant player. Both clearly HOF caliber.

My overall groupings:

LeBron: LeBron
====
Studs: Howard, Yao, Davis
Stars: Wall, Irving, Griffin
Solid pros: Martin, Rose, Bogut
====
Bust due to injury: Oden
Bust due to sucking: Bargnani, Bennett, Brown
====
Jury still out but probably a stud: Towns
Jury still out but probably not a stud: Wiggins
Jury still out: Simmons

Auger34 · May 18, 2017

cheech13 said:
That's tough. Maybe between #12 (Embiid) and #13 (Ingram)? Although I could maybe buy as high as 9 or 10.

There is absolutely no way that in today's "pace and space" NBA, that a guy who was scared to shoot beyond 15 feet in college and had strong rumors that he literally quit on his college team (Ben Simmons) is a better prospect than Markelle Fultz. Embiid's only at 12 because of all the injuries

Also, Sam, the jury's out means the opposite of what you were trying to convey in your post

Sam Ray Not · May 18, 2017

tbb345 said:
Sam, the jury's out means the opposite of what you were trying to convey in your post

I meant it as "as yet undecided" or "incomplete." How do you understand "the jury's out"?

nighthob · May 18, 2017

The phrase is usually "the jury's still out", but everyone knew what you meant and it was unnecessary grammar naziing.

JakeRae · May 18, 2017

tbb345 said:
There is absolutely no way that in today's "pace and space" NBA, that a guy who was scared to shoot beyond 15 feet in college and had strong rumors that he literally quit on his college team (Ben Simmons) is a better prospect than Markelle Fultz. Embiid's only at 12 because of all the injuries

Also, Sam, the jury's out means the opposite of what you were trying to convey in your post

I think of Simmons as a similar prospect to Ball. Both have some pretty spectacular elements to their game and superstar potential as a result. Both also have significant holes that could lead to their games just not working in the NBA. The holes are different, although the elite skills are more similar. All that is to say that I would not rank Simmons above Fultz either.

Sprowl · May 18, 2017

DrewDawg said:
If Fultz turns into something close to Kyrie Irving we should be ecstatic.

At least on the highlight tapes, Fultz looks to have the size, hops and reach for an inside power game. Kyrie probably has a better handle, but not as many ways to score. Irving is a very low ceiling for Fultz, I think.

Sam Ray Not said:
Bust due to sucking: Bargnani, Bennett, Brown

Good thing the Celtics won't be picking Ball.

slamminsammya · May 18, 2017

I worry about Fultz turning into Deangelo Russell. Their college numbers are nearly identical. Russell is still obviously very young but he seems like he will suffer from having no single skill that is really great, which you would hope for a #1 pick to have.

heavyde050 · May 18, 2017

slamminsammya said:
I worry about Fultz turning into Deangelo Russell. Their college numbers are nearly identical. Russell is still obviously very young but he seems like he will suffer from having no single skill that is really great, which you would hope for a #1 pick to have.

I agree the stats are similar but didn't Fultz average like 4 points more per game. Also, isn't Fultz singular great skill that he can score from all three levels.

mauf · May 18, 2017

BaseballJones said:
From 2000-2016

2000 - Kenyon Martin
2001 - Kwame Brown
2002 - Yao Ming
2003 - LeBron James
2004 - Dwight Howard
2005 - Andrew Bogut
2006 - Andrea Bargnani
2007 - Greg Oden
2008 - Derrick Rose
2009 - Blake Griffin
2010 - John Wall
2011 - Kyrie Irving
2012 - Anthony Davis
2013 - Anthony Bennett
2014 - Andrew Wiggins
2015 - Karl-Anthony Towns
2016 - Ben Simmons

Great thread, by the way.

Looking at this list, how many #1 overall picks were considered likely franchise players when they were drafted, as opposed just happening to be the best guy available that year?

I think that list goes Yao, LBJ, Oden, Rose, Griffin, Davis, Towns and Simmons. Fultz fits with that group -- he's not as touted as LBJ, but he's the clear-cut #1 in one of the most stacked drafts in years.

Of those eight guys, you've got an all-time great (LBJ), two guys who were only kept by injury from being inner-circle HOFers (Yao and Rose), two guys who are young and still have a chance to reach that level (Davis and Towns), a star player who didn't quite reach that level (Griffin), a guy who washed out due to injury (Oden), and a guy who hasn't played yet (Simmons). In other words, #1 picks of that caliber may wash out due to injuries, but generally don't bust simply because they weren't as good as everyone thought.

mauf · May 18, 2017

slamminsammya said:
I worry about Fultz turning into Deangelo Russell. Their college numbers are nearly identical. Russell is still obviously very young but he seems like he will suffer from having no single skill that is really great, which you would hope for a #1 pick to have.

D'Angelo Russell would be a fine basketball player if he weren't an atrocious defender.

(Defensive Rating is an imperfect stat, but Russell's DRtg is an atrocious 113 -- which basically means Russell is making league-average players look like Carmelo Anthony in his prime.)

nighthob · May 18, 2017

slamminsammya said:
I worry about Fultz turning into Deangelo Russell. Their college numbers are nearly identical. Russell is still obviously very young but he seems like he will suffer from having no single skill that is really great, which you would hope for a #1 pick to have.

DAR has all of Lonzo Ball's athletic disadvantages without his court vision. Fultz is much closer to James Harden than Russell.

Auger34 · May 18, 2017

nighthob said:
DAR has all of Lonzo Ball's athletic disadvantages without his court vision. Fultz is much closer to James Harden than Russell.

Agreed. Fultz also has a 2.5 inch longer wingspan than DAR

PedroKsBambino · May 19, 2017

maufman said:
Great thread, by the way.

Looking at this list, how many #1 overall picks were considered likely franchise players when they were drafted, as opposed just happening to be the best guy available that year?

I think that list goes Yao, LBJ, Oden, Rose, Griffin, Davis, Towns and Simmons. Fultz fits with that group -- he's not as touted as LBJ, but he's the clear-cut #1 in one of the most stacked drafts in years.

Of those eight guys, you've got an all-time great (LBJ), two guys who were only kept by injury from being inner-circle HOFers (Yao and Rose), two guys who are young and still have a chance to reach that level (Davis and Towns), a star player who didn't quite reach that level (Griffin), a guy who washed out due to injury (Oden), and a guy who hasn't played yet (Simmons). In other words, #1 picks of that caliber may wash out due to injuries, but generally don't bust simply because they weren't as good as everyone thought.

I think Wiggins was considered a clear franchise guy at draft time and Griffin was not. But, that's a little bit of a judgment call anyway. FWIW, Durant was a clear franchise guy too and probably worth discussing as he could have gone 1.

I would say Yao, LBJ, Oden are a tier in terms of expectations at draft time, with Davis/Towns/Simmons/Wiggins/Fultz/Rose/Wall/Griffin in the next tier. Of those eight, the group is bunched pretty tight imo, with Davis/Wiggins/Towns ahead and the rest potentially in a few different orders.

Cesar Crespo · May 19, 2017

Yao was hardly a sure thing and not even a consensus number 1. Many people thought Jay Williams should be the pick. Then in his first few games, Yao looked completely out of sorts and people were already calling him a bust. Charles Barkley was particularly rough on him. It took Yao a month or two to quiet the critics.

Also, wasn't Jabari Parker considered a franchise guy alongside Wiggins? By the time the draft was happening, didn't they both lose that status? Everyone thought Embiid was the franchise guy and #1 pick until his injury. Dwight Howard had some people believing he was a franchise guy but others thought Emeka Okafor should have been number 1. John Wall was thought of pretty highly too.

tims4wins · May 19, 2017

bosox79 said:
Yao was hardly a sure thing and not even a consensus number 1. Many people thought Jay Williams should be the pick. Then in his first few games, Yao looked completely out of sorts and people were already calling him a bust. Charles Barkley was particularly rough on him. It took Yao a month or two to quiet the critics.

Also, wasn't Jabari Parker considered a franchise guy alongside Wiggins? By the time the draft was happening, didn't they both lose that status? Everyone thought Embiid was the franchise guy and #1 pick until his injury. Dwight Howard had some people believing he was a franchise guy but others thought Emeka Okafor should have been number 1. John Wall was thought of pretty highly too.

Jabarihad definitely been dropped a peg due to his lack of athleticism.

Good call on Jay Williams. Wonder where he'd fit on this list, and what his career would have looked like.

wade boggs chicken dinner · May 19, 2017

PedroKsBambino said:
I think Wiggins was considered a clear franchise guy at draft time and Griffin was not.

I think that Griffin was considered a clear franchise guy at the time - more so than Yao. For example, read this: http://www.nbadraft.net/players/blake-griffin. He was so incredibly dominant in college - being stronger, quicker, and a better leaper than everyone on the floor - people figured he was going to be a perennial MVP candidate.

On a historical note, it was interesting to re-read that 2009 was considered a weak draft at the time. It's going to turn out to be a pretty amazing draft with Curry, Griffin, and Harden at the top and guys like
Tyreke Evans, Ricky Rubio, Jordan Hill, DeMar DeRozan, Brandon Jennings, Terrence Williams, Gerald Henderson, Tyler Hansbrough, James Johnson, Jrue Holiday, Ty Lawson, Jeff Teague, Darren Collison, Omri Casspi, Taj Gibson, and DeMarre Carroll drafted the first round and having multiple year NBA careers.

smastroyin · May 19, 2017

I think Howard was already pretty much thought a franchise guy just not a sure bet like LeBron. I imagine if he'd come out now in the one and done years he would have been even more highly thought of (unless he wasn't good in college for some reason I guess). Garnett, McGrady, Kobe also would have been closer to the top (if not too) in the one and done era I think.

History of the #1 pick

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