How good is Al Horford on this team?

cmurphycode

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Amongst the argument over whether Irving is good enough to be an alpha-tier star on this team, some posters thought that Horford is underrated.

So, let's try to answer some questions. How good was Al Horford last year? Was his impact on that team notably different than his previous squads? What are some of the ways we can identify his indirect contributions - i.e. impact on his teammates? How good will he be this year?

I'll start by listing some stats for his first C's season and the one before with Atlanta.

51st in win shares (17th last year)
39th in BPM (15th last year)
31st in VORP (13th last year)
80th in PER (52nd last year)
60th in RPM (27th last year)

source, source

These stats are obviously not the end of the story. Can anyone take it from here?
 

MuzzyField

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Al is a silent assassin! Without him the Gator 04’s win no titles.
I hope this roster flush retool successfully incorporates him into a more comfortable role where he’s not trying to fit, it just fits.

What does last years team do without him?
 

scottyno

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Al is a silent assassin! Without him the Gator 04’s win no titles.
I hope this roster flush retool successfully incorporates him into a more comfortable role where he’s not trying to fit, it just fits.

What does last years team do without him?
They lose to Chicago, he was one of the best players in the entire playoffs on any team the first 2 rounds and easily the best Celtic.
 

Koufax

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He definitely stepped it up for the playoffs. It will be really interesting to see how he integrates with his new teammates this year. Slow start, steady improvement seems likely.
 

luckiestman

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Last year's team was full of so many grinder bad ass tough guys that Al's soft play really bothered me at times. When I'm being rational I have to admit that he is a very good player but man, he really pisses me off sometimes.
 

nighthob

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Horford is sort of the poor man's KG. He does all the things that we junkies groove on, he sets killer screens (it's no coincidence that Lil' Zeke had his best offensive season with Horford as his teammate), is a great pick & roll and pick & pop player. He has turned himself into a real floor spacer, can manage the offense out of the high post and even get you points in the low & mid posts when you need it.

Defensively he's a lot like the late career Garnett in terms of seeing plays develop and telling the guys in front of him where they need to be. He isn't a great rebounder, which upsets people that believe rebounds=winning, but he is just a fantastic jack of all trades that greases the engine for his team.
 

Cesar Crespo

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It's amazing Horford as a reputation as soft nowadays. When he came into the league he was known as a dirty player.
 

luckiestman

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It's amazing Horford as a reputation as soft nowadays. When he came into the league he was known as a dirty player.

1. Those things are not opposites.

2. I don't know if he has that reputation, that is just my take on watching every game he's played for the Cs. Someone else might view it differently. I thought it was really a stark difference contrasted against Smart, Bradley, Crowder, and even Rozier. Hell, even Jerebko played way tougher. Al is better than all those guys, I get that. He just pisses me off.
 

cmurphycode

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Horford is sort of the poor man's KG. He does all the things that we junkies groove on, he sets killer screens (it's no coincidence that Lil' Zeke had his best offensive season with Horford as his teammate), is a great pick & roll and pick & pop player. He has turned himself into a real floor spacer, can manage the offense out of the high post and even get you points in the low & mid posts when you need it.

Defensively he's a lot like the late career Garnett in terms of seeing plays develop and telling the guys in front of him where they need to be. He isn't a great rebounder, which upsets people that believe rebounds=winning, but he is just a fantastic jack of all trades that greases the engine for his team.
Some stats and clips that back up what you're saying about screens and post offense
https://www.stats.com/insights/nba/al-horfords-usage-and-impact-in-year-one-with-the-celtics/
 

smastroyin

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Stevens brought Horford more to the perimeter, whether by design or not. So if you look at his stats, his offensive rebounding and his shots at the rim were down while his assists and 3p shots were up. He had been slowly extending his range anyway - he always had a fairly lethal 16 footer, now he's shooting it from a little longer and being a bit more efficient from beyond 16, though honestly his 16 footer he was hitting at such a high rate that he probably shouldn't have given it up (as a Celtic he actually had his worst season by eFG% and TS% since his rookie year). He had by far his fewest dunks, and fewest catch and score 2p in any full season. Basically, the Celtics took away all of his easy baskets in exchange for better spacing. A big reason Isaiah was more efficient on offense last year was the presence of Horford, IMO, and yes, he was a big reason that my own personal binky Jae Crowder got so many good looks.

Defensively, he had a his worst season in a long time. Maybe this is part of what will be improved with the addition of Hayward and Irving to increase the backcourt size and get Horford defending more natural positions instead of being stuck on quicker players so often.
 
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soxfan121

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I'll leave the on court stuff to people who know more about it.

Off the court, this is Horford's team. He's the oldest guy in the room. He's the guy with the most experience in the room. He's one of a few who've won anything. He's by all reports a model professional. He's consistent. He is (ha!) one of the longest tenured members of the Celtics. He knows Stevens's system, and is a perfect fit in it.

With a bunch of yutes and newcomers, it'll be on Horford to set the tone in practice, on the plane, and in the locker room. It seems to me - again, no on court expert - that at least a bit of his salary is due to his off court attributes. Having a model professional who is willing to "sacrifice" on court stats for good team play, and to show up every day, demonstrating what it takes to be successful in the league is an example of good team building.
 

ALiveH

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That stats.com article is great. Potential assists and points created are my new favorite passing advanced stats. I also learned that Horford put up the 2nd best passing season ever by a Center last year. Really underrated because the 5.4 assists / game don't really jump off the page.

I am genuinely curious whether Stephens will start Horford at the 4 (with Baynes at the 5) or at the 5.
 

JakeRae

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That stats.com article is great. Potential assists and points created are my new favorite passing advanced stats. I also learned that Horford put up the 2nd best passing season ever by a Center last year. Really underrated because the 5.4 assists / game don't really jump off the page.

I am genuinely curious whether Stephens will start Horford at the 4 (with Baynes at the 5) or at the 5.
The roster really only makes sense with him as the starting 5 and Baynes as the backup 5. They don't have anyone else on the roster over 6'9". Theis or Yabusele may be able to give them some minutes at the 5, but both are undersized for the position. Also, our best 5 man lineup is almost certainly Irving, Smart, Hayward, Morris, Horford.
 

Eddie Jurak

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The roster really only makes sense with him as the starting 5 and Baynes as the backup 5. They don't have anyone else on the roster over 6'9". Theis or Yabusele may be able to give them some minutes at the 5, but both are undersized for the position. Also, our best 5 man lineup is almost certainly Irving, Smart, Hayward, Morris, Horford.
I don't know as I'd go so far as to say 'almost certainly', because someone has got to rebound (even if rebounding is generally overrated).
 

bakahump

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I for one love the Merloni "Average Al' moniker. Though it should probabably be "Triple A". Above Average Al.

I was worried the game he was out. Offense seemed the most out of sync all season (including the Kyrie Absent Game).
 

Sprowl

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Big Al is shooting 64% on 2-point shots. Sometimes it seems like he never misses inside 10 feet.
 

Reardon's Beard

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Perfect for this team and I suspect this roster is the kind they wanted to surround him with to maximize performance and value.

We're going to see him really shine in the months ahead. May not be leading the league in anything...but WINS!
 

mt8thsw9th

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I for one love the Merloni "Average Al' moniker.
Why do you love a stupid fucking hot take? People who don't know anything about anything consider him "average". Thankfully I avoid sports talk radio, but good god does it dumb down the masses.

Horford seems like a Belichickian player—not a superstar by traditional measures, but the sum of all his parts has a superstar-level impact, especially in a system like Stevens’. There’s something to be said for someone who can do a bit of everything at least at a league average level.
 

BillMuellerFanClub

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I love Al Horford. I can't hide it any longer. Having this thread bumped to the top of the subforum today and being able to go back and read some of the analysis from those of you here prior to the start of the season provides such perspective to what he's doing this (still young) season. Not that any takes were anything other than accurate, because a lot of them nail it in the best way - but he's, in my opinion, blowing away even my most optimistic expectations.

He's what makes the Celtics go. Does everything well, and you can really see the impact he has on his peers, and what effect his peers have had on him. He played a good soldier, sacrificed his individual numbers to align with a system and trust the process , all while excelling in the things Brad needed and wanted from him. Now, they've put some real help in place and he's balling out of control. He looks 27 - not 31 - out there setting some epic screens and playing the two-man game with Kyrie that is essentially telekinetic.

I can't help but continue to draw this connection, but he's akin to the type of consummate professional that exemplifies a 'Belichick guy.' This team's composition is of the most likable variety on par with the 2004 NEP and he's a big part of that.

Plus, have you seen the guy's eyes?

/Al Horford Sploogefest.
 

Spelunker

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Why do you love a stupid fucking hot take? People who don't know anything about anything consider him "average". Thankfully I avoid sports talk radio, but good god does it dumb down the masses.

Horford seems like a Belichickian player—not a superstar by traditional measures, but the sum of all his parts has a superstar-level impact, especially in a system like Stevens’. There’s something to be said for someone who can do a bit of everything at least at a league average level.
Which might make him more like a JD Drew than a Belichick player.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Why do you love a stupid fucking hot take? People who don't know anything about anything consider him "average". Thankfully I avoid sports talk radio, but good god does it dumb down the masses.

Horford seems like a Belichickian player—not a superstar by traditional measures, but the sum of all his parts has a superstar-level impact, especially in a system like Stevens’. There’s something to be said for someone who can do a bit of everything at least at a league average level.

This is why he has the nickname. I think it's meant as a compliment but ends up being an insult since he's a candidate to be on the all star team any given year. I also think there is one think that Horford does at close to an elite level and that is passing from the 5 spot. I don't think he gets the proper credit because he hasn't really had the chance to showcase his play making ability until he arrived in Boston.
 

scottyno

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He wouldn't get them because he's not flashy and doesn't dominate the traditional numbers, but if the season ended today Horford, not Kyrie, is the one who would deserve mvp votes. He's basically top 10 or better right now in every advanced metric and has a legitimate case for defensive player of the year.
 

Eddie Jurak

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"Average Al" is either an idiotic criticsm (from people like Lou Merloni) or meant ironically (by people who aren't morons).

An interesting question is how much Horford is benefitting from Kyrie, in a way he didn't benefit from Isaiah.

And, another interesting question is whether the rest of the team will cash in on the defensive adjustments made to deal with Horford's lights out shooting. Al went 0-4 from three against Golden State, and it really looked as if the Warriors were closing out on him just quickly enough to throw off his rhythm, force him to rush his shot a bit. I assume most teams aren't going to be capable of that without adjusting their defense in a way that opens some other holes that could be exploited.
 

lexrageorge

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I'm quite sure Merloni's moniker for Horford is not a compliment, but instead an idiotic parroting of the hot takez from the Green Team clowns when Horford was signed to a max contract.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Chad Finn says it best:

The Celtics, whose best player is 25 years old, whose second-best player is recovering from a broken leg, whose third-best player is called average by microphone-wielding, hair-replacement-pushing human wind instruments, and whose fourth- and fifth-best players are 19 and 21 years old, dropped 19 straight points on the NBA champions to seize victory from a team that barely remembers how to lose.
 

Jimbodandy

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Al is the Swiss army knife. It is true that he seldom dominates the traditional categories. But he is effectively throwing into most games exactly what they are missing at that time: dagger three-pointers, a couple of jump hooks while the offense struggles, a put-back, traffic rebounds, a key block, generally strong lane-clogging rim protection. That goes above and beyond his reliable screening and elite passing and his overall impact to spacing.

Even on the rare night when his shot is off, he is creating problems on defense and making everyone else better on offense.

And as much as I love what we are seeing from Kyrie, I think that we have more coverage of what he does (albeit at a dropoff, of course) than what Al does.
 

Ed Hillel

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Al should age pretty well, too, I think. Hopefully he will stick around at a reasonable price for 3 more years after his current contract expires during what is hopefully a championship window.
 

bakahump

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I love that its a hot take. Its the same reason I still refer to Brady as a System QB just to tweak people.
 

ifmanis5

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Al with Kyrie is much better than with IT. He's so much more active and involved. Even though IT had good assist numbers there were many times when it was just 4 guys just standing around and watching IT operate. He was mesmerizing to watch, even for the pros! But one of the reasons why this team is better than last year's is everyone, especially Al, is working harder to make good basketball decisions for the team. Al was too passive last year; this year's Al is the version I was expecting.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Hot take alert but is this season's Al Horford a top 25 player? He's scoring, hitting the three, playing excellent defense, rebounding, and is probably one of the best passing big men in the league. He has to be one of the top all-round guys this season.
 

Kliq

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Al is having a significantly better season than Kyrie this year. Kyrie has been great but he is still averaging 20-5 with poor shooting by his standards. Al is good for 16-9-5 with great percentage shooting and is in the DPOY conversation.
 

slamminsammya

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Hot take alert but is this season's Al Horford a top 25 player? He's scoring, hitting the three, playing excellent defense, rebounding, and is probably one of the best passing big men in the league. He has to be one of the top all-round guys this season.
Only a hot take if you ignore all the advancement in thinking about basketball from the past 15 years.
 

HomeRunBaker

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That looks like noise. Stat can't figure out what the hell is going on
An individual defenders stats will only be as good as his teams overall defense in todays game. A single miscommunication, misread, or blown assignment by one player affects the other 4's individual number......that isn't an individual stat. It is a team stat.
 

luckiestman

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An individual defenders stats will only be as good as his teams overall defense in todays game. A single miscommunication, misread, or blown assignment by one player affects the other 4's individual number......that isn't an individual stat. It is a team stat.

Yeah, I don't disagree with that. The poster was talking about where a specific player was in that hierarchy and my opinion is that the stat can't really tell (it seems you agree with this point).
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Yeah, I don't disagree with that. The poster was taking about where a specific player was in that hierarchy and my opinion is that the stat can't really tell (it seems you agree with this point).
Yes absolutely. If there continues to be questions and uncertainties of certain baseball defensive metrics which is comprised of 99% individual performance.......how can there be any value in the accuracy of a basketball metric when the individual defender relies so heavily on his teammates? Now I'm sure teams break down their numbers using MUCH greater due diligence of each individual play to grade a player so they aren't being fooled. My criticism is of such a vanilla stat telling the general public anything of meaning.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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That looks like noise. Stat can't figure out what the hell is going on
Yeah, I wonder how the stats deal with a switch heavy scheme like Brad's. For example, if someone blows a rotation and the opposing player cans a three-pointer, do the stats know enough to charge the player who was supposed to rotate? Also, BOS will occasionally get caught in mismatches if the ball moves faster than the switch backs but that's a small price to pay for not getting caught on screens the other times.

At any rate, at least people agree that BOS's defense is breaking statistics!
 

bowiac

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Yes absolutely. If there continues to be questions and uncertainties of certain baseball defensive metrics which is comprised of 99% individual performance.......how can there be any value in the accuracy of a basketball metric when the individual defender relies so heavily on his teammates? Now I'm sure teams break down their numbers using MUCH greater due diligence of each individual play to grade a player so they aren't being fooled. My criticism is of such a vanilla stat telling the general public anything of meaning.
Because certain of these metrics (e.g., defensive RPM) can be used to effectively project actual team results (within a reasonable margin of error). For example, the win projections which I post aren't perfect, but they do reasonably well, having beaten Vegas every year for 4 years now. These are driven in large part by metrics very similar to RPM (I run my own version of RPM, but it's very similar). There are many other win projection systems which work similarly.

I'm sympathetic to the fact that there are elements of teamwork which aren't being captured here, but that's letting the perfect be the enemy of the good. Despite the very real issues with individual player defensive stats - they still work reasonably well for the purposes of forecasting wins. Are they perfect? Certainly not. Is there "any value" there however? Of course there is.
 

chilidawg

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Yeah, I wonder how the stats deal with a switch heavy scheme like Brad's. For example, if someone blows a rotation and the opposing player cans a three-pointer, do the stats know enough to charge the player who was supposed to rotate? Also, BOS will occasionally get caught in mismatches if the ball moves faster than the switch backs but that's a small price to pay for not getting caught on screens the other times.

At any rate, at least people agree that BOS's defense is breaking statistics!
It seems like the key to metrics is enough sample size. Sure they may miss who screwed up the rotation, but given enough plays and minutes, those things start to average out, and we might get something meaningful.