I like big bats and I cannot lie: Acquiring a hitter

johnnywayback

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What happens if Martinez is your DH and Bradley fouls a ball off his foot in the second inning? Gotta make one of your infielders be a Holt type, right?

Using a bench spot for a lefty 1B platoon with no other tools eliminates an awful lot of flexibility. Maybe it's workable. Finding a guy that can play first but has other positions, but has to bat left while throwing right, is tough.

If you bank on a Swiss Army knife like Holt all year and he takes a knock, you'll find yourself with a short bench and less than optimal late game or extra inning flexibility.
Yup, that's a good point -- you would want your last spot to go to someone who can play the outfield at least some. Could be Holt or even Lin (or, gulp, Swihart, who is out of options). If Pedroia's healthy, you could also just carry one IF and a Rajai Davis type. Or I really like the Howie Kendrick suggestion.
 

Comeback Kid

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he's much less likely to become a Miguel Cabrera-esque albatross (and, by the way, I can't believe anyone would actually want the original Cabrera albatross!).
I have to think DD is at least considering reuniting with Miggy on a deal subsidized by DET, based on his tendencies. I'm not thrilled about acquiring a lot of aging DH-types but I would be a bit intrigued to see how a healthy Miggy could bounce back next year. He had his worst season but it still may be too early to write him off.
 

CLowe

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I have a couple names that I'm curious to hear opinions on:

Andrew McCutchen - he has one year left on his deal and there are reports that the Pirates are considering moving him. It wouldn't be a long term commitment which would allow them to resign him after 2018 or have the budget available for the big free agent class. Would also help fill the leadership void.

Elvis Andrus - he is coming off a huge year for the Rangers but he still has a lot of money tied to him. I'm not sure what the Rangers plans are but perhaps they would consider a deal that includes Bogaerts?

McCutchen and Andrus aren't your 40 homerun hitter type but both are good veteran players who would make the lineup better. Thoughts?
 

RedOctober3829

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Signing JD would be a pretty shortsighted move. We’d be getting a 4 win player on his downward curve, locked into a probable 5-7 year contract. And we’d have to trade Bradley who is a 3 win player and cost controlled.

The best long term move would be to make smaller trades and hope we can bounce back years from our starters plus maybe Swihart or Travis break through. Don’t play Hanley enough so that his option vests.

Then next year play the Harper and Machado bingo.
I think Harper and Machado sign extensions this offseason.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I think Harper and Machado sign extensions this offseason.
That would certainly not be Boras' style.

I live in MD, between DC and Baltimore, so see a lot of both these teams. In Harper's case, I think he likes DC and his situation with the Nats, so I could see that he might sign an extension if the Lerners and Rizzo came in with a preemptive offer that Boras views as being market value. Which is possible, but the unresolved situation with the MASN contract and revenues might make such an offer less likely at this time.

As for Machado, I think an extension is extremely unlikely, as I don't see Angelos making the kind of market rate offer to satisfy Boras, And I also don't see that Manny has any particular affection for the O's or their situation. It's not inconceivable that he could wind up staying with the O's, but my bet is that he goes on the free agent market and goes to the highest bidder.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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That would certainly not be Boras' style.

I live in MD, between DC and Baltimore, so see a lot of both these teams. In Harper's case, I think he likes DC and his situation with the Nats, so I could see that he might sign an extension if the Lerners and Rizzo came in with a preemptive offer that Boras views as being market value. Which is possible, but the unresolved situation with the MASN contract and revenues might make such an offer less likely at this time.

As for Machado, I think an extension is extremely unlikely, as I don't see Angelos making the kind of market rate offer to satisfy Boras, And I also don't see that Manny has any particular affection for the O's or their situation. It's not inconceivable that he could wind up staying with the O's, but my bet is that he goes on the free agent market and goes to the highest bidder.
Well, Boras isn't Machado's agent (Dan Lozano of MVP Group is), so I'm not sure why his opinion matters much.

And Lerner is worth about $5.2B, so I also don't think the MASN contract matters a whole lot; the team is a toy for him and he owns a lot of the real estate surrounding the stadium, keeping asses in seats is in his best interests.
 

grimshaw

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Signing JD would be a pretty shortsighted move. We’d be getting a 4 win player on his downward curve, locked into a probable 5-7 year contract. And we’d have to trade Bradley who is a 3 win player and cost controlled.

The best long term move would be to make smaller trades and hope we can bounce back years from our starters plus maybe Swihart or Travis break through. Don’t play Hanley enough so that his option vests.

Then next year play the Harper and Machado bingo.
I get your overall point but Martinez gets some more value back moving off of right field.
If he could be even an average defender in LF or 1b, that bat from last year is more like a 5 to 6 win guy.
 

twosevenkid

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No. The Sox need a high-AVG high-OBP slugger, not someone who an only be projected to hit for an OBP in the .310 range.

If they're going to go down the Moustakas path, may as well just sign Logan Morrison for a pittance and keep Devers at 3B.

But the key to a real middle-of-the-order bat is someone with a good eye and good contact rates to grease OBP, along with a low GB/FB ratio and solid exit velocity to drive the high-AVG and SLG. Basically, the kind of guy they had in Ortiz, and thought they were getting in Hanley.

Votto and Freeman are that kind of hitter, Cabrera and Hanley used be...but guys like Moustakas and Morrison and Frazier are definitely not.
I'm being realistic here; with $ and trades. The thread is about a big bat, not high OBP -- .521 slugging last year isn't terrible. Also, Logan Morrison can't play 3B because he's left-handed. Do you have any concern about Devers errors and range at 3B next year? What if he also fails to thrive as a hitter? We keep putting so much faith into our prospects thinking they will all be great hitters, and we have limited sampling in MLB from Devers. Not that I don't want him to be the next Ortiz. Moustakas can fill in at 3rd if needed, or play 1st. We need a 1st basemen too and without trading away and making more holes in our lineup or taking on fat contracts, how are we going to get Votto or Freeman? Moustakas should be somewhat affordable on the free agent market compared to the other guys.
 

DanoooME

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I have a couple names that I'm curious to hear opinions on:

Andrew McCutchen - he has one year left on his deal and there are reports that the Pirates are considering moving him. It wouldn't be a long term commitment which would allow them to resign him after 2018 or have the budget available for the big free agent class. Would also help fill the leadership void.

Elvis Andrus - he is coming off a huge year for the Rangers but he still has a lot of money tied to him. I'm not sure what the Rangers plans are but perhaps they would consider a deal that includes Bogaerts?

McCutchen and Andrus aren't your 40 homerun hitter type but both are good veteran players who would make the lineup better. Thoughts?
Not sure where McCutchen would fit and I'm sure we'd be out-bid for his services.

I'd only take Andrus if Beltre comes with him and they acquire Viktor from the Tigers. They wouldn't be a very good team, but at least we'd spend an entire season laughing at their antics.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Well, Boras isn't Machado's agent (Dan Lozano of MVP Group is), so I'm not sure why his opinion matters much.

And Lerner is worth about $5.2B, so I also don't think the MASN contract matters a whole lot; the team is a toy for him and he owns a lot of the real estate surrounding the stadium, keeping asses in seats is in his best interests.
Sorry - I knew that Machado was originally a Boras client, but missed that he had switched to MVP Group. But I still don't think that Angelos makes an offer big enough to keep Manny from hitting the FA market (even though he has the money).

And while the Lerners certainly have the money to make a big enough offer, all the media reports suggest that they really don't like spending their own money on the team, and that the MASN issue has a real impact on what they are willing to spend. But they certainly ponied up for Scherzer and Strasburg, and I think they'd really like to keep Harper, so (as I said) I think it's certainly possible they can work out an extension - far more likely than Machado, I think.
 

Kielty's Last Pitch

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Yes, and we literally just came off a year where everyone one of our young superstar hall-of-fame-to-be players had a down year.

Devers is 20. Putting anything more on him than a support role appears to be a very poor idea.
Agreed. My biggest concern is his defense, I think he needs to focus on improving that before we pencil him in at 3B for the next 5 years.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Do you have any concern about Devers errors and range at 3B next year? What if he also fails to thrive as a hitter? We keep putting so much faith into our prospects thinking they will all be great hitters, and we have limited sampling in MLB from Devers. Not that I don't want him to be the next Ortiz.
Agreed. My biggest concern is his defense, I think he needs to focus on improving that before we pencil him in at 3B for the next 5 years.
Maybe this should be its own thread, but for now I'll run the risk of being slightly off topic here.

I'm as high on Devers as a hitter as I've been on any Red Sox prospect since... well, ever since I wasn't really much of a prospect hound when Nomar came up and I wasn't really aware of him fully until he got promoted. This isn't like Bogaerts coming up with all the potential in the world and monster tools that he hadn't quite gotten to yet.

This is a kid who has always had the tools to be a middle of the order hitter who reached those tools in the minors and carried them over to MLB. He's 20 years old and has the poise of a veteran in the box.

He's already shown the ability to adapt to pitchers pitching him differently quickly. He's shown the ability to go the other way with authority regularly. He's shown a great natural ability to square the ball up and the ball carries off of his bat in a way you can't really teach. He has a nice repeatable swing with excellent bat speed, great pitch recognition and huge raw power that he can get to in games.

He has literally every tool you want to see in a hitting prospect coming up. He checks all of the boxes. And he's already doing it at the major league level at 20. He even stepped up big in the playoffs. Yeah, he'll have slumps (he had one this year), but I don't think penciling him in for 20+ HR, and a .350+ OBP next year (barring injury) is even remotely risky.

He might still be a full year away from being what Papi was for this team, but he's well on his way already. The defense is a different matter, but he has the tools to be an above average defender at third. Good range, good jumps, strong arm. There's work to do there, but like Xander, I think he'll be adequate enough to stay there for the early part of his career.
 

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I have to think DD is at least considering reuniting with Miggy on a deal subsidized by DET, based on his tendencies. I'm not thrilled about acquiring a lot of aging DH-types but I would be a bit intrigued to see how a healthy Miggy could bounce back next year. He had his worst season but it still may be too early to write him off.
I have said, and will continue to say that this will be our middle of the order bat. DD seems to like his guys.
 

Puffy

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I'm also slightly horrified by 6 - 8 years of Miguel Cabrera from age 35 - 40/42. And at $30+ million per year, there'd have to be a pretty big subsidy.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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If DD is going to reacquire one of his guys, I would much rather have it be JD Martinez.

The Sox need a middle of the order bat to be competitive with the rest of the AL, and MLB lineups. JD would fit that perfectly, and "only" cost money.

Stanton probably won't happen, but I don't think the cost will be nearly as high as some of you seem to think. Especially if the Sox, or whomever are eating that contract. If something like JBJ, ERod, and a prospect or two get it done, I don't see how you don't do it to have a guy like that in the lineup.

I wouldn't trade Betts, or Devers and I'd hate to move Benintendi ... other than that, I don't see why anyone else would be untouchable.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I also think that DD will be interested in Miggy, but I hope that's not his first option, given his age and contract. If he ages like Papi, then it would be ok, but if not, that contract's a killer. So you'd have to hope that the Tigers would be willing to heavily subsidize the deal ($10m/yr?) and/or get almost nothing in trade.

On the surface, he had a lousy year in 2017, which increases the risk that he has already entered the decline phase. But it may not have been as bad as it seems. His BABIP dropped all the way to .292, compared to a career rate of .344. His BB% was down and K% up from his career rates, but his batted ball data (from Fangraphs) was not that bad, with a higher LD% and hard hit rate (apologies if the chart does not copy nicely):

Season Team GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH% Pull% Cent% Oppo% Soft% Med% Hard%
2003 Marlins 1.50 22.1 % 46.8 % 31.2 % 5.6 % 16.7 % 5.6 % 25.0 % 43.0 % 26.4 % 30.6 % 15.3 % 57.4 % 27.2 %
2004 Marlins 1.29 19.9 % 45.1 % 35.0 % 4.9 % 20.4 % 7.2 % 0.0 % 43.2 % 28.3 % 28.5 % 9.3 % 54.8 % 35.9 %
2005 Marlins 1.03 24.5 % 38.3 % 37.2 % 8.7 % 17.9 % 6.9 % 0.0 % 43.9 % 29.1 % 26.9 % 9.7 % 50.8 % 39.5 %
2006 Marlins 1.14 24.2 % 40.3 % 35.5 % 7.2 % 15.6 % 6.3 % 100.0 % 38.8 % 35.2 % 26.1 % 8.1 % 58.1 % 33.9 %
2007 Marlins 1.02 20.7 % 40.0 % 39.3 % 10.3 % 18.5 % 4.3 % 0.0 % 41.2 % 31.1 % 27.7 % 15.1 % 46.5 % 38.4 %
2008 Tigers 1.05 19.6 % 41.1 % 39.3 % 10.7 % 18.9 % 4.9 % 0.0 % 39.3 % 28.9 % 31.9 % 13.6 % 51.5 % 34.9 %
2009 Tigers 1.17 20.0 % 43.2 % 36.8 % 8.1 % 18.3 % 5.0 % 0.0 % 41.2 % 31.5 % 27.3 % 13.9 % 48.7 % 37.4 %
2010 Tigers 0.94 18.9 % 39.3 % 41.7 % 7.8 % 19.8 % 4.4 % 0.0 % 35.4 % 34.6 % 30.0 % 11.3 % 44.1 % 44.6 %
2011 Tigers 1.30 22.1 % 44.1 % 33.8 % 5.5 % 18.2 % 4.2 % 0.0 % 38.5 % 35.5 % 26.0 % 18.2 % 44.9 % 36.9 %
2012 Tigers 1.17 21.7 % 42.3 % 36.0 % 4.7 % 23.0 % 3.1 % 0.0 % 36.2 % 35.3 % 28.5 % 6.2 % 50.8 % 43.0 %
2013 Tigers 1.03 24.0 % 38.7 % 37.4 % 5.8 % 25.4 % 3.4 % 0.0 % 40.0 % 33.0 % 27.0 % 9.5 % 45.4 % 45.1 %
2014 Tigers 1.13 24.8 % 40.0 % 35.2 % 5.6 % 14.0 % 5.0 % 0.0 % 37.8 % 37.0 % 25.1 % 10.5 % 44.6 % 45.0 %
2015 Tigers 1.29 25.2 % 42.1 % 32.7 % 3.5 % 15.8 % 2.0 % 0.0 % 35.8 % 30.7 % 33.5 % 10.3 % 49.6 % 40.1 %
2016 Tigers 1.17 22.7 % 41.7 % 35.5 % 4.7 % 22.1 % 2.0 % 0.0 % 37.8 % 33.1 % 29.1 % 9.7 % 49.2 % 41.1 %
2017 Tigers 1.21 27.3 % 39.8 % 32.9 % 2.5 % 13.4 % 2.8 % 0.0 % 32.0 % 36.5 % 31.5 % 9.9 % 47.5 % 42.5 %
Total - - - 1.14 22.4 % 41.3 % 36.3 % 6.6 % 18.8 % 4.5 % 33.3 % 39.0 % 32.6 % 28.4 % 11.3 % 49.3 % 39.4 %

 

nvalvo

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I have said, and will continue to say that this will be our middle of the order bat. DD seems to like his guys.
He has two herniated discs and is still owed about $185m — that's just shy of the total outlay for Hanley and Sandoval over the entirety of both deals.

It would be like acquiring David Wright today.

I hope you are wrong. Unless the tigers eat at least 75 percent of that contract, it is going to be an albatross within a few years.
It's an albatross today.
 

MakeMineMoxie

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Miggy MIGHT make sense if it was for 1-2 years but no longer than that and I'm loathe to give up any prospect/current young guys for him.

It may boil down to how the FO sees the DH position going forward. If you have a guy like Ortiz, you're set but now, I'd like to see them get a decent bat who doesn't kill you in the field and rotate guys through the DH slot as dictated by rest, injuries, etc.

Assuming you leave Devers at 3rd and hope his defense improves vs. moving him to 1B, 1B becomes an obvious spot for the new guy but what do you do with Hanley? A semi-platoon at 1B? Trade him with a subsidy? Sooner or later, these multi-year deals to aging players bite you in the ass.

All that said, I have a terrible feeling we'll see Miggy in a Red Sox uni next year.
 

BJBossman

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A name I'm gonna throw out there is Carlos Santana.

Before last winter I wouldn't have thought he'd be a great fit, but after the way the 1B/DH market almost completely collapsed last year, getting him on a 3 year deal is at least a plausible scenario. And as a switch hitter gives the lineup a bit of flexibility as well.

It may be better than giving 5 or 6 years to Martinez. Especially when the window for this team is clearly in the next 2 and then figure things out after that.
 

sean1562

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Stanton probably won't happen, but I don't think the cost will be nearly as high as some of you seem to think. Especially if the Sox, or whomever are eating that contract. If something like JBJ, ERod, and a prospect or two get it done, I don't see how you don't do it to have a guy like that in the lineup.
Why would they move Yelich off CF for JBJ? I dont see him being even remotely valuable to the Marlins. Maybe Erod, Chavis, and Groome, but if they are dumping payroll, why would they even be looking for MLB ready talent? The Yankees could offer a few of their top 10 and that would be a much better deal than whatever the Red Sox could offer. Do you think they wont throw their hat in the ring if it becomes common knowledge the Sox are making a push?
 

BJBossman

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Miggy MIGHT make sense if it was for 1-2 years but no longer than that and I'm loathe to give up any prospect/current young guys for him.

It may boil down to how the FO sees the DH position going forward. If you have a guy like Ortiz, you're set but now, I'd like to see them get a decent bat who doesn't kill you in the field and rotate guys through the DH slot as dictated by rest, injuries, etc.

Assuming you leave Devers at 3rd and hope his defense improves vs. moving him to 1B, 1B becomes an obvious spot for the new guy but what do you do with Hanley? A semi-platoon at 1B? Trade him with a subsidy? Sooner or later, these multi-year deals to aging players bite you in the ass.

All that said, I have a terrible feeling we'll see Miggy in a Red Sox uni next year.
Ideally you could get a Moose and move Devers to 1B. But I doubt the Sox are ready to give up on Devers as a 3B at this point and time. Or at least I haven't seen any real evidence of it yet, and moving Chavis around doesn't disagree with that notion either.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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Why would they move Yelich off CF for JBJ? I dont see him being even remotely valuable to the Marlins. Maybe Erod, Chavis, and Groome, but if they are dumping payroll, why would they even be looking for MLB ready talent? The Yankees could offer a few of their top 10 and that would be a much better deal than whatever the Red Sox could offer. Do you think they wont throw their hat in the ring if it becomes common knowledge the Sox are making a push?
I think NY is saving for the Harper spending spree which Boston won't win. I don't think Marlins would move him for straight prospects because quite frankly, with his contract, no one is giving up multiple elite prospects. I know for sure Marlins won't eat any of the contract. It would not take multiple elite prospects to get Stanton if the Marlins are in fact intent on moving him.
 

MikeM

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People that keep bringing up Miggy as an option here are being paranoid. Cabrera put up a .249/.329/.399 line last year, with 16 HR in over 500 atbats. He's essentially downgrading Moreland atm. If Henry/DD had enough self control to keep themselves from jumping in on EE last winter, they'll have enough self control now (even with the over cap spending factor) in avoiding that blatant land mine.

Agree with some others that Moustakas is a decent sleeper option here if/when the ideal and hitting a grand slam solution doesn't end up being there. Depending on how his market shakes out of course, and whether or not our scouting is sold on the power surge being legit/sustainable.

Looking away when free agency offers us the chance to plug in a sub-30yo/solid player at a relatively decent price, simply because you are too stuck in the mindset of trying to min/max the individual defensive value of an average (again, defensively) at best 20yo, is the wrong way to go about looking at this imo.
 

BJBossman

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People that keep bringing up Miggy as an option here are being paranoid. Cabrera put up a .249/.329/.399 line last year, with 16 HR in over 500 atbats. He's essentially downgrading Moreland atm. If Henry/DD had enough self control to keep themselves from jumping in on EE last winter, they'll have enough self control now (even with the over cap spending factor) in avoiding that blatant land mine.

Agree with some others that Moustakas is a decent sleeper option here if/when the ideal and hitting a grand slam solution doesn't end up being there. Depending on how his market shakes out of course, and whether or not our scouting is sold on the power surge being legit/sustainable.

Looking away when free agency offers us the chance to plug in a sub-30yo/solid player at a relatively decent price, simply because you are too stuck in the mindset of trying to min/max the individual defensive value of an average (again, defensively) at best 20yo, is the wrong way to go about looking at this imo.
Completely agreed. Moose is the best for this team right now because it would improve the defense at 3B. No doubt 1B would not be improved, but obviously 3B is a higher value spot. Plus Moose being lefty just provides more balance to the order, which was too RH at times. Betts, Bogey, Petey, Hanely, Nunez. All RH. Having both Devers and Moose in there would really move things around. Make situational RPs harder to use against them.
 

DJnVa

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Elvis Andrus - he is coming off a huge year for the Rangers but he still has a lot of money tied to him. I'm not sure what the Rangers plans are but perhaps they would consider a deal that includes Bogaerts?
His "huge" year translated into an OPS+ of 108. Granted that's better than Bogaerts this past season, but it's in line with what Bogaerts produced the 2 years prior. Andrus hit about 40% of his career HRs this year--not sure yet if that's a fluke, but if it is that slugging he used to power that OPS+ is going to fall.

I can't speak to his defense, but he's being paid $15 million until he's 34 and he's 4 years older than Bogaerts. I'd give a hard pass on that.

He can also opt out after 2018 and 2019--so if he goes nuts next season he may opt out and we'd need a SS. If he craters, he stays and you're overpaying a downward trending player.
 

Seabass

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I think Harper and Machado sign extensions this offseason.
Why do you think that? MLBTR's Extension Tracker is a super useful tool here, because it shows how much service time players had when they signed their extensions. Both Machado and Harper have about 5 years of service time, so looking through the list I see two players that are fair comps for Machado & Harper at the time they signed their extensions -- Matt Kemp and Adrian Gonzalez, both inked in 2011 a year before they would've hit FA. Kemp was coming off of his 8.2 bWAR breakout year, a year after he had a negative WAR, and smartly took $160M over eight years. We're more familiar with the Gonzalez deal, as that was a seeming fait accompli after he was dealt to Boston. There are pitchers that have signed extensions a year before they hit FA, Strasburg and Kershaw headlining the list, but the injury risk for pitchers is so much higher than it is for position players that I don't think they should be lumped in together. If you throw a ball and someone offers you $175M, you should take it.

Harper and Machado have had opportunities to sign extensions, but both bet on themselves so they could be young FAs that could command a contract near half a billion dollars. Unless DC or Baltimore tender Harper or Machado a contract significantly larger than the Stanton extension, they're not going to re-sign.

All that being said, I think JD Martinez would fit nicely in the Sox lineup.
 

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People that keep bringing up Miggy as an option here are being paranoid. Cabrera put up a .249/.329/.399 line last year, with 16 HR in over 500 atbats. He's essentially downgrading Moreland atm. If Henry/DD had enough self control to keep themselves from jumping in on EE last winter, they'll have enough self control now (even with the over cap spending factor) in avoiding that blatant land mine
If the team believes that Miggy is suddenly in steep decline or damaged goods, sure. But he was injured last year, and played through it to very limited success. The year prior, he OPS'd .956 and hit 38 home runs. It's a scary contract for sure, and maybe his back is shot. But to base the decision strictly on '17 numbers makes no sense when his five prior years were .956, .974, .895, 1.078, and .999.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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I think NY is saving for the Harper spending spree which Boston won't win. I don't think Marlins would move him for straight prospects because quite frankly, with his contract, no one is giving up multiple elite prospects. I know for sure Marlins won't eat any of the contract. It would not take multiple elite prospects to get Stanton if the Marlins are in fact intent on moving him.
It won't take multiple elite prospects, but it will take one and the Sox don't have any. So they'd have to pull from the major league roster instead. The real issue is that the Sox also don't have many moderately valuable prospects (guys in the mid to back end of the top 100).

Quick look at the chips they have...
Groome had a bad year and will fall to the back of that list, and maybe off of it. And he was the only prospect on the start of season top 100 at BA that didn't graduate.

The mid season list had Chavis at 96 and some of the luster may have come off after he was promoted to Portland and cooled off a bit.

After that, who has a chance? Daniel Flores for his tools? He hasn't played a game yet.

Tanner Houck had a nice enough debut. Maybe he gets in there.

Cole Brannen might have a shot at a mid season list if he has a strong first half, but his debut wasn't all that great.

I don't think Alex Scherf played at all.

Netzer, Schellenger and Thompson were okay, but none of them did enough to merit inclusion on the winter list.

Ockimey had a solid season, but faded a bit in the second half again and as a first base prospect, that bat isn't anything special yet.

Bryan Mata had a shot at cracking these lists at mid season, but faded in the second half.

Dalbec and Chatham didn't play enough.

There's plenty of intriguing talent in the lower minors, but none of it has established much value yet, so there just isn't much to add to Benintendi or Eduardo or whomever is being dangled. They can't keep up with teams that have deep farms.

The Yankees can offer Clint Frazier and some mid-range top 100 types (35-75 or so) without breaking a sweat.

The White Sox could dangle Avisail Garcia and have a dozen prospects at least as good as anything the Red Sox have or better to build a package with, and they probably wouldn't need to include Eloy.

Depending on the punishment for violating IFA rules, the Braves could put together a great package as well.

The issue with the Red Sox isn't that they don't have multiple top prospects, it's that they have very little in the way of interesting prospects at all right now.
 

MikeM

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If the team believes that Miggy is suddenly in steep decline or damaged goods, sure. But he was injured last year, and played through it to very limited success. The year prior, he OPS'd .956 and hit 38 home runs. It's a scary contract for sure, and maybe his back is shot. But to base the decision strictly on '17 numbers makes no sense when his five prior years were .956, .974, .895, 1.078, and .999.
That would hold up better as a whole if he was 30yo instead of the turning 35 next year.

Unless DD has been granted full reign of the team with absolutely no say coming from upstairs, there is zero reason to believe any sane version of JH that we've seen since he's bought this team is signing off on that 6/$180m+ left on Miggy's contract (even if it is subsidized a tad). Especially when they can alternatively just go out and pay that on a 30yo JD Martinez as a FA, who actually was a stud hitter last year. Which ironically enough is probably a pretty solid high end ballpark of what it's going to take there for that matter.
 

chawson

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DD came out so far ahead on Kinsler/Fielder that I'd be interested to see how he'd handle another bad contract trade.

Given this Pedroia news, Kinsler himself (on the $10m final year of his contract) would seem useful coming with Miggy.
 
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NJ_Sox_Fan

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It won't take multiple elite prospects, but it will take one and the Sox don't have any. So they'd have to pull from the major league roster instead. The real issue is that the Sox also don't have many moderately valuable prospects (guys in the mid to back end of the top 100).

Quick look at the chips they have...
Groome had a bad year and will fall to the back of that list, and maybe off of it. And he was the only prospect on the start of season top 100 at BA that didn't graduate.

The mid season list had Chavis at 96 and some of the luster may have come off after he was promoted to Portland and cooled off a bit.

After that, who has a chance? Daniel Flores for his tools? He hasn't played a game yet.

Tanner Houck had a nice enough debut. Maybe he gets in there.

Cole Brannen might have a shot at a mid season list if he has a strong first half, but his debut wasn't all that great.

I don't think Alex Scherf played at all.

Netzer, Schellenger and Thompson were okay, but none of them did enough to merit inclusion on the winter list.

Ockimey had a solid season, but faded a bit in the second half again and as a first base prospect, that bat isn't anything special yet.

Bryan Mata had a shot at cracking these lists at mid season, but faded in the second half.

Dalbec and Chatham didn't play enough.

There's plenty of intriguing talent in the lower minors, but none of it has established much value yet, so there just isn't much to add to Benintendi or Eduardo or whomever is being dangled. They can't keep up with teams that have deep farms.

The Yankees can offer Clint Frazier and some mid-range top 100 types (35-75 or so) without breaking a sweat.

The White Sox could dangle Avisail Garcia and have a dozen prospects at least as good as anything the Red Sox have or better to build a package with, and they probably wouldn't need to include Eloy.

Depending on the punishment for violating IFA rules, the Braves could put together a great package as well.

The issue with the Red Sox isn't that they don't have multiple top prospects, it's that they have very little in the way of interesting prospects at all right now.
These things are all true, I'm just not sure why Chicago or ATL or NY would do any of them.
 

johnnywayback

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Because he has a terrible contract and a history of injuries and power is no longer a particularly rare commodity, would be my guess.
 

jon abbey

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Also RF is occupied for NY currently and they're a very right-handed team already, including the next wave of guys coming also. If NY is going to add a pricy power guy, I think they're much more likely to wait for the lefty Harper in another year.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Some free agent power bats who haven't been talked about much in this thread:

Carlos Santana:
Will be 32. Switch hitting 1B. Made $12 million this year. 23 HRs, 259/363/455. Career: 249/365/445, 121 OPS+

Yonder Alonso:
Will be 31. LH 1B. Made $4 million this year. 266/365/501 career year with 28 HR, after 7, 5, 7, and 6 the previous 4 years. Career: 268/340/407, 109 OPS+
Was excellent this year, but was it a fluke?

Logan Morrison:
Will be 31. LH 1B Made $2.5 million this year. 38 HR with 868 OPS, 135 OPS+ this year, way above normal. Career: 245/330/433, 763 OPS, 109 OPS+
Was excellent this year, but was it fluke?

Lucas Duda:
Will be 32. LH 1B. Made $7 million last year. 30 HRs, 217/322/496, 116 OPS+. Career: 242/340/457, 120 OPS+. Shouldn't get many years or much money in this market.

Jay Bruce:
Will be 31. LH OF. Made $13 million last year. 36 HR. Career: 249/319/472, 110 OPS+. 5 seasons of 30+ HR. Could DH mostly, play some at first and LF.

Todd Frazier:
Will be 32. RH 3B. Made $12 million this year. 27 HRs. 213/344/428, 105 OPS+. Career: 245/321/459, 111 OPS+. Can play third and first or DH, so offers insurance against Devers having a sophomore slump.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Some interesting names raised by The Gray Eagle. I'm not sure I'd want any of them to be Plan A - they seem like this year's version of Mitch Moreland, who I'm not that interested in coming back. But if you're considering a three-way 1B/DH share plan with Hanley and Travis, then this might work, although it doesn't really guarantee the "big bat" we're looking for (and therefore, why this shouldn't be Plan A).

Of these names, the ones that would interest me most would be Santana, Duda and Morrison. With Morrison, to would depend a lot on whether the scouts and/or analytics guys think he might have made some kind of breakthrough. Santana and Duda seem to be somewhat more consistent as low avg/high power guys. I would stay away from Bruce and Frazier. And Alonso tailed off after a hot start, so he seems like he's too risky.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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Atlanta and Chicago are approaching contention windows. NY just entered theirs. Why wouldn't they be interested in Stanton?
The White Sox are no where close to being competitive imo. Lots of prospects theyve hoarded, but who knows how theyll turn out. Atlanta doesn't seem particularly close either.
 

PapaSox

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I'd like to see Eric Hosmer come to Boston. I imagine he'd be a tad expensive but he is young and on the right-side of thirty. If they are thinking of Miggy then I'd consider Joe Votto.
 

Cesar Crespo

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No. The Sox need a high-AVG high-OBP slugger, not someone who an only be projected to hit for an OBP in the .310 range.

I'm not advocating for signing Moustakas but I'm not sure this is really true. The Redsox didn't struggle to get on base. If that .310 OBP came attached to a .500+ slugging percentage, it helps a lot. Of course Moose's obp is heavily reliant on his batting average since he doesn't walk much and that leads to far more season to season variance due to batting average being more volatile than walk rate. You never really know what a Mike Moustakas or Jay Bruce is going to do from year to year. I'd actually prefer Morrison over them as he has a really healthy bb rate.

If you are looking for a middle of the order bat along the lines of Ortiz though, you are probably going to be disappointed.
 

Green Monster

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Another name that i haven't seen mentioned is Joey Votto. He is very popular in Cincinnati so he might not be available, but the Reds are in rebuilding mode that may justify moving him. Another big contract with 6/$150M remaining and he is 34yo which is not ideal. Last year he put up .320/36/100 with 1.032OPS and 168 OPS+ These numbers might be slightly inflated by hitting in Cincinnati.

edit: Took too long typing and Papasox just mentioned Votto
 

Rovin Romine

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Some interesting names raised by The Gray Eagle. I'm not sure I'd want any of them to be Plan A - they seem like this year's version of Mitch Moreland, who I'm not that interested in coming back. But if you're considering a three-way 1B/DH share plan with Hanley and Travis, then this might work, although it doesn't really guarantee the "big bat" we're looking for (and therefore, why this shouldn't be Plan A).

Of these names, the ones that would interest me most would be Santana, Duda and Morrison. With Morrison, to would depend a lot on whether the scouts and/or analytics guys think he might have made some kind of breakthrough. Santana and Duda seem to be somewhat more consistent as low avg/high power guys. I would stay away from Bruce and Frazier. And Alonso tailed off after a hot start, so he seems like he's too risky.
Unless DD moves a lot of bodies, we most need a 1B and a 3B backup. Perhaps that will be the solution to our slugging problem. But if the most cost effective slugging upgrade is a corner OF and a middling 1B, (trading Bradley and moving Betts to CF) then so be it. There are multiple ways to address the team's shortcomings moving forward, but we don't really have get franchise players to do it.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I'd like to see Eric Hosmer come to Boston. I imagine he'd be a tad expensive but he is young and on the right-side of thirty. If they are thinking of Miggy then I'd consider Joe Votto.
Another name that i haven't seen mentioned is Joey Votto. He is very popular in Cincinnati so he might not be available, but the Reds are in rebuilding mode that may justify moving him. Another big contract with 6/$150M remaining and he is 34yo which is not ideal. Last year he put up .320/36/100 with 1.032OPS and 168 OPS+ These numbers might be slightly inflated by hitting in Cincinnati.

edit: Took too long typing and Papasox just mentioned Votto
Noted above that he has no trade and has been consistent that he doesn't want to waive it.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/158877538/joey-votto-wont-waive-trade-clause-with-reds/
 

santadevil

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Noted above that he has no trade and has been consistent that he doesn't want to waive it.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/158877538/joey-votto-wont-waive-trade-clause-with-reds/
I'd be 50/50 on Votto
The dollars scare me, but he's be very consistent

However, if he wants to stay in Cincy, he can.
The video above is two years old now and the Reds were only a couple years past playing in the WC game in 2013
I would like to think that Votto will realize he will never win in Cincy and as he gets older he may take a chance, especially with prior core guys being moved (Bruce, Phillips, etc.). Finishing last in your division the last 3 years may change that perspective
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'd only take Andrus if Beltre comes with him and they acquire Viktor from the Tigers. They wouldn't be a very good team, but at least we'd spend an entire season laughing at their antics.
I wonder if Beltre alone could be had in a deal. Texas has Gallo at 3b and Choo at DH. It would require moving Devers to 1b though.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I can't imagine a viable Votto trade that wouldn't be a disastrous deal from the Sox' point of view. The whole rationale for a contract like his is that you get the surplus value early, and then overpay later. We'd be signing up for the "overpay later" part, and even then we'd be praying that it's just a mildly constraining, ouch-that-smarts overpay like Hanley's, and not a full-on train-wreck overpay.

Put it this way: In order for the trade to be equitable, either Cincinnati would have to subsidize a big chunk of the contract--in which case they have less reason to do it, since it's a pure salary dump for them--or else the net talent exchange excluding Votto would have to favor the Sox, which would presumably be a major PR fail for the Cincinnati FO.
 

streeter88

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I wonder if Beltre alone could be had in a deal. Texas has Gallo at 3b and Choo at DH. It would require moving Devers to 1b though.
Beltre was great for Sox in 2010, when he was 31 years old. Just rereading an old article on why he didn't resign with the Red Sox, it was very clear the Sox went in the Adrian Gonzalez direction and kept the draft picks rather than resigning a guy whho was then viewed as a bigger risk in Beltre. How times have changed.

Fast forward seven years, and Beltre is still hitting and fielding his position capably, but he is entering his age 39 season, and was injured for a significant portion of this past season. My guess is he is a bit of a risk at this point, even if he did still post a 3.7 bWAR in 94 games last season. Wish we could have gotten him 2 years ago...
 

tonyarmasjr

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Some free agent power bats who haven't been talked about much in this thread:
Carlos Santana
Yonder Alonso
Logan Morrison
Lucas Duda
Jay Bruce
Todd Frazier
Those guys plus Moreland, Hosmer, and maybe September call-up Pedro Alvarez are it for possible FAs at 1B. So, those who keep beating the "sign a power-hitting first baseman to fix our offense" drum, please look at that list and understand that the only guys who can reasonably be expected to hit 30+ HR are Bruce and Frazier - who have played a combined 780 innings at 1B.

Personally, I'm not interested in paying for or counting on Morrison's or Alonso's career years. Santana and Hosmer will command the largest deals, and I don't think the Sox should pay a premium for a guy who isn't a premium power threat. I thought Frazier, Duda, and Bruce were all interesting options at the trade deadline this year. The positional versatility of Bruce and Frazier would be nice with Hanley on the roster, assuming they are willing/able to play primarily 1B. My vote is to wait out the market and try to sign Duda, Moreland, or Bruce on the cheap. I omit Frazier due to him being RH, and we already have Hanley and Travis as options.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Beltre was great for Sox in 2010, when he was 31 years old. Just rereading an old article on why he didn't resign with the Red Sox, it was very clear the Sox went in the Adrian Gonzalez direction and kept the draft picks rather than resigning a guy whho was then viewed as a bigger risk in Beltre. How times have changed.

Fast forward seven years, and Beltre is still hitting and fielding his position capably, but he is entering his age 39 season, and was injured for a significant portion of this past season. My guess is he is a bit of a risk at this point, even if he did still post a 3.7 bWAR in 94 games last season. Wish we could have gotten him 2 years ago...
It would largely depend on what it would take to acquire him. It is kind of amazing how shallow this Sox organization is though. They have one of the worst farm systems in the league and if they make a MLB talent for MLB talent trade, they're just replacing one hole and creating a new one. I have to think if they do anything, it's via FA so it's probably all moot anyway. Beltre wouldn't come for free and paying one of Groome, Chavis or Mata is too much. I don't see Sam Travis or Josh Ockimey getting it done.