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Is it possible for the Cs to add two of Butler/George/Griffin/Hayward this offseason?

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by kazuneko, Jun 18, 2017.

  1. kazuneko

    kazuneko Member SoSH Member

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    There seems to be plenty of speculation in the "plan for the number 1 pick" thread that the Cs ultimate plan for the offseason is adding two superstars. While there has been some debate in that thread about whether or not this is possible, it doesn't seem clear to me that a definitive answer to that question has been reached. Considering how long and convoluted that thread has become and how endlessly complicated the NBA salary cap is, I thought it might be good to start a new thread to better examine this question.
     
  2. djbayko

    djbayko Member SoSH Member

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    4,896
    I'm pretty sure you spelled it wrong. It's Hæwürd.
     
    #2 djbayko, Jun 18, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2017
  3. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    The answer is yes.
     
  4. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Yes, although it is easier to do if they sign Hayward or Blake before trading for George or Butler.
     
  5. kazuneko

    kazuneko Member SoSH Member

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    You or anyone else with a good understanding of the cap willing to explain the details of how that would work?
     
  6. JCizzle

    JCizzle Member SoSH Member

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    Even if it's possible, that team becomes very expensive very quickly. Not my money so I don't give a shit, but who knows how Wyc feels about a team that's still a slight underdog.

    Assuming you add PG and Hayward, then pay IT and PG next year, you have four guys making a combined ~$100M+/year?
     
  7. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    Waive Jordan Mickey and Tyler Zeller
    Renounce Amir Johnson, Jonas Jerebko, James Young, Gerald Green and Kelly Olynyk.

    then either

    Get Yabusele to stay another year overseas & trade Rozier & D. Jackson for future picks
    or
    Trade one of Smart/Jae/#3 for future picks

    That gives you enough cap space to sign Hayward or Griffin.

    Then trade Avery Bradley and one of what's left from Smart/Jae/#3, and/or whatever else Indiana/Chicago would want in future picks for Butler/George.
     
  8. Cellar-Door

    Cellar-Door Member SoSH Member

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    12,792
    It's possible yes.
    2 main ways to do it.

    way 1.

    Cut down for space to sign Hayward
    This entails (assuming you are making the #3 pick and bringing over Zizic) cutting Zeller, renouncing all the free agents, getting Yabu to sign the letter saying he'll be stashed another year, cutting Mickey and making a trade the rids the books of one more small salary (likely Jackson).

    Then you trade for your guy, matching salaries which likely means Bradley and Crowder both have to go out.

    Way 2.
    Make the trade first.
    The positive of this is that you can trade Zeller's non-guaranteed contract as part of the salary match, allowing you to only send out one of Bradley Crowder in the deal.
    Assuming you make the #3 pick and bring over Zizic you then need to move salary to get back to max cap space which likely means trading the other of Bradley/Crowder, or possibly Smart.


    There are also variations on this if the #3 isn't drafted by the Celtics, as that frees up more money in a #2 scenario and in #1 it alleviates having to dump Jackson, maybe lets you bring over Yabu if you want.

    There are some other options as offshoots of #1 where you sign Hayward then use the player you picked at #3 in the deal the requisite number of days after signing (like Wiggins/Love) which can help salary match if you were planning to move the #3 in the deal but are having trouble making the salaries work.
     
  9. smastroyin

    smastroyin simpering whimperer Dope SoSH Member

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    It's possible but you have to have a ton of help.

    Assume the cap will be $101 million.

    The current situation is that the Celtics have the following guys with guaranteed contracts:
    Horford 27,734,405
    Bradley 8,808,989
    Crowder 6,796,117
    Thomas 6,261,395
    Brown 4,956,480
    Smart 4,538,020
    Rozier 1,988,520
    Jackson 650,000 guaranteed

    That's 61,083,926 guaranteed

    The also have the following guys non-guaranteed:
    Zeller 8,000,000
    Mickey 1,471,382
    Jackson 1,384,750 total

    And the following cap holds:
    Johnson 15,600,000
    Jerebko 9,500,000
    Olynyk 7,735,033
    Young 2,803,507
    Yabusele 2,247,480
    Zizic 1,645,200
    Green 1,471,382

    OK so you cut Zeller, Mickey, Jackson all loose. You have to pay Jackson $650,000, though. And you renounce everyone but Yabusele and Zizic.

    That gives you $65,626,606.

    Cap hold for the #3 pick is $5,600,000 IIRC, but that only accounts for 8 players. Roster holds up to 12 are $815,615 each.

    So now your cap number is 74,489,066.

    That only leaves you with $26,510,934 to deal with. If you assume Hayward or Griffin as max players that's $30,300,000 they are looking for. I think it is possible to also renounce the Bi-annual exemption which somehow clears more space, but I'm not an expert. Regardless, even with the $3,290,000 that would add, you're short $500k (and, again, I'm not sure you can really clear extra space renouncing the exemption, and that's a pretty big if). Possible that either of those guys *might* say OK cool we'll take a little hit to play for a contender.

    Regardless, let's pretend that it does work this way. Now you're at the cap and you're trying to trade for Butler, which means you have to match salaries. Not with all the guys you renounced...with who is left. Butler is making 18,696,918 next year, he gets a 5% bump for being traded, that's 19.631,763. So the Celtics would have to send $15.750,000 in trade.

    So that could be Jackson (4,704,500), Crowder (6,796,117), and Brown (4,956,480)

    So now your team is Horford, Hayward, Crowder, Bradley, Thomas...Smart, Rozier, Yabu, Zizic, and vet mins.

    I'm not sure this is that smart, even if you can make it work.
     
  10. smastroyin

    smastroyin simpering whimperer Dope SoSH Member

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    20,691
    This is almost impossible without also dealing Bradley somewhere else with no salary coming back. You are double counting Zeller's 8,000,000 as both a trade salary and as part of how you renounce. If you've match salaries using Zeller, then you can't get rid of that salary afterward, you have to find 8 million more. That means Bradley.
     
  11. Cellar-Door

    Cellar-Door Member SoSH Member

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    12,792
    No I'm not. Check it again, I note that you still have to trade both Bradley and Crowder (I added possibly Smart because if you don't take a player at 4 you can get under using Smart and Rozier or Jackson I believe though it's TIGHT so I may be off there). The advantage is that you can split trading Crowder and Bradley into 2 different deals which greatly increases the chances of getting good value for them.
    So as an example....
    If you sign then trade you basically have to move Bradley and Crowder to CHI (unless it's a deal with the player you drafted at 3 after he signs which means it could be Bradley and Smart and #3). Now you probably don't get full value on those 2 because CHI has to move Bradley again at the very least (you could try to get a 3rd team in the core deal, but that complicates things)
    However the flip side is something like trading Crowder and Zeller in a deal with Chicago, then selling AB to the highest draft pick bidder. OR.... trading Bradley to the highest draft pick bidder, flipping some of those in the deal w/ Crowder etc.....

    TL DR- Both Bradley and Crowder have to leave likely, but doing the trades before FA could help in getting maximum value by not forcing the inclusion of both in a deal just to make the salary work.
     
  12. kazuneko

    kazuneko Member SoSH Member

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    The Jackson you are referring to here is potential number 3 pick Josh Jackson, correct?
    I assume you mean Horford, Butler, Hayward, Bradley, Thomas, Smart, Rozier, Yabu, Zizic and vet mins? (ie, adding Butler and eliminating Crowder).
     
  13. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    660
    Trading Bradley and getting no salary back is super easy. You may not get anything valuable back but teams would be lining up to get Avery for nothing.
     
  14. smastroyin

    smastroyin simpering whimperer Dope SoSH Member

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    Yes, that's the Jackson. But it doesn't matter. #3 is #3 and the cap hold is 5.6 and the rookie salary is 4,704,500 no matter what. And yes, Butler instead of Crowder.

    I'm not sure the nitpick does literally anything about the discussion.

    As for cellar-door, I get your point, but Chicago can get under the cap by renouncing any one of a half dozen nobodies, and then they don't need to take Zeller's salary. I guess maybe they'd be interested in taking it to then make another trade, or of course maybe they'll be nice and take it and then cut him..but I assume in doing so it means they would want something else of value.

    Regardless, becoming a better Washington Wizards with like 6 useful rotation guys isn't really my idea of building a team, even if 4 are all-stars.
     
  15. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    If you make the trade first before the free agent signing, the Celtics would have to clear an extra 5M for the signing.

    If you also use Zeller in the trade rather than waiving him, that number rises to an extra 13M.
     
  16. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    How should we build it?
     
  17. the1andonly3003

    the1andonly3003 lurker

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    I really hope you are all wrong on this and these scenarios never happen. DA is basically forced to give away most of his developed/drafted assets for nothing
     
  18. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    You don't get any extra room for renouncing the bi-annual and midlevel exceptions.

    Until they're renounced, they are actually counted against the cap.
     
  19. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    No, he wouldn't be.

    If they have value, he can get value for them.
     
  20. kazuneko

    kazuneko Member SoSH Member

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    In a three-way trade it would be pretty easy to imagine a scenario where whatever pick you get for Avery is added (w/ salary filler from the team picking up Avery) to the value given to Chicago/Indiana for George/Butler.
     
  21. Cellar-Door

    Cellar-Door Member SoSH Member

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    It's more of a thing that it's hard to negotiate with a rebuilding team for value when you are forced to include 2 players who are by default more valuable to you than to them. The Bulls would probably just immediately cut Zeller, he's just the useful salary filler since the Celtics have to send out somewhere north of $15M to make the trade work.

    As to the 6 guys theory, I don't really agree with it. Here's a hypo:
    Trade Zeller/Crowder/Jackson LAL1st BOS 18 1st to CHI for Jimmy Butler
    Trade Avery Bradley to MiN or SAC or NO (assuming rumors are true the Jrue wants DAL) for future draft considerations.
    Draft someone at 3 (let's say Tatum)
    Sign Hayward

    That leaves a roster of:
    Thomas, Hayward, Butler, Brown, Horford, Zizic, Tatum, Smart, Rozier, That's 9 deep with the room exception and some vet minimums still in play to round it out.
    Then as you move forward you'll have BKN 18 and Yabusele next year, the LAC and MEM picks, whatever you got for Bradley. That's a deep and fairly sustainable team that can transition into a whole new squad over time. To me the only real question is whether you keep IT.
     
  22. kazuneko

    kazuneko Member SoSH Member

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    This suggests the trade really needs to happen after the free agent signing. This is a shame because one of the clear advantages of a trade is that it would make Boston a more attractive free agent destination...
     
  23. Cellar-Door

    Cellar-Door Member SoSH Member

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    12,792
    Does Butler have a trade kicker? otherwise my math should work.
     
  24. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    Assuming you convinced Yabusele to stay overseas another year, you're still about 4M short of signing Hayward.

    Butler has a 900K trade bonus. You also have to take a 815K cap charge for every player under 12 you're accounting for. If you're only counting 9 salaries, gotta add a 2.5M cap charge
     
  25. smastroyin

    smastroyin simpering whimperer Dope SoSH Member

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    5%
     
  26. smastroyin

    smastroyin simpering whimperer Dope SoSH Member

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    Sure, if you wishcast that Chicago, who wanted the swap rights this year, plus Brown, plus Crowder, for Butler at the deadline are willing to downgrade that all the way to a pick with even less upside certainty, and replacing Brown with salary filler (btw, if both teams are under the cap you don't have to match salary, that's my point on them getting under the cap). I don't think you can make the assumption that Yabusele is just gonna go back to China a happy man.

    Also, again, you can't have those 9 guys.

    The 8 guys before you sign Hayward cost:
    Horford 27,734,405
    Butler 19,631,764
    Thomas 6,261,395
    Brown 4,956,480
    Smart 4,538,020
    Rozier 1,988,520
    Zizic 1,645,200
    Tatum 4,704,500

    Total: 71,460,284

    But it's only 8 guys. Cap presumes a roster of 12. So you have 4x the min to fill the roster in terms of cap. That's 4 times 815,415 or 3,261,660. *There is no getting around the roster holds that I know of. If someone wants to correct me please do* You get one "back" with signing Hayward so it's a 2,446,245

    New Total: 73,906,529 Leaving 27,092,471 under the cap. If Hayward were dying to play in Boston, then maybe he takes a 3+ million haircut on his annual salary, but I don't see it.

    (edit: corrected the number of holds)
     
  27. Cellar-Door

    Cellar-Door Member SoSH Member

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    12,792
    Yeah I appear to have missed that Butler has a 5% trade kicker, that changes the order of things for sure, makes it more likely they trade after signing a FA. It doesn't actually change that you can have those 9 guys though, just make the trade at the end of FA after both teams are over the cap.

    I don't think it matters though in terms of depth what goes to CHI reasonably, if they have that starting 5, Rozier, and some of the picks (and they will since they have a ton of picks) that's still a very deep team by NBA standards, And if it's any good they'll get the kind of vet min and room exception signings that CLE/GS/SA etc. get.
     
  28. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Pacers asking teams for ideas on potential PG trades, per sources, as they have for a while. Ideally: 2 firsts+starter. Teams obv skittish.

    Process will likely accelerate going into Draft, but no certainty anything will get done by then.



     
  29. Cellar-Door

    Cellar-Door Member SoSH Member

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    Multiple firsts and a starter is pretty steep, even if the 1sts aren't that great.

    I can't see the Celtics being able to do a deal that works since they have to give up 2 GOOD starters just to match salary. Maybe if George would agree to pick up his player option as part of the deal, but he isn't doing that.
     
  30. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    2 1st is very vague. If you could trade Boston's own 1st in 2018 and the 2019 Clippers or Memphis pick plus Jae Crowder or Avery Bradley for a Paul George rental with the idea of convincing him to stay, would you?

    I know that isn't enough to get it done, but it does meet the description. What price would you pay for 1 year of Paul George? Or instead of the Memphis/Clippers pick, Boston's 2020 1st.
     
  31. kazuneko

    kazuneko Member SoSH Member

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    With Adrian Wojnarowski reporting that Paul George has informed the Pacers that he will not resign with them in 2018, it seems increasingly clear that the more likely player to be traded is not Butler but George. It's also clear that with only one year left on his contract and George already forcing the Pacer's hand, George's trade value is significantly lower than Butler's. You could also argue that the Cs have added incentive to trade for George to prevent him from being traded to the Lakers (as there 2018 pick would lose significant value if that were to happen). Considering this, a trade for George centered around the Lakers 2018 pick seems to make a lot of sense for both teams and certainly would seem like better value for the Cs than sending Crowder/Player chosen #3/Brown (which seems like the minimum the Bulls would accept) for Butler. For the cap gurus on this site, how would a trade for George change things under the cap?
     
  32. Cellar-Door

    Cellar-Door Member SoSH Member

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    12,792
    the problem is as discussed upthread you have to trade Bradley and Crowder to make the salaries work.
     
  33. Lazy vs Crazy

    Lazy vs Crazy Member SoSH Member

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    Butler has a 5% trade kicker and George doesn't so they would both be making almost the same. There isn't really a meaningful cap difference between the two.
     
  34. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    if you are 100% convinced you could change George's mind, that trade would be great. I'm guessing some might be tempted to do it anyway. If Ainge has no intentions of actually signing IT4, could he be interchanged with AB? I know he could be with Crowder but I'm not sure why the Pacers would want IT4+Bradley but they do need to replace Teague and Ellis is old. IT4 would give them a superstar too which would be better than Randle.
     
  35. Cellar-Door

    Cellar-Door Member SoSH Member

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    IT4 doesn't make enough as far as I can tell.
     
  36. kazuneko

    kazuneko Member SoSH Member

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    I wonder if the trade would be preferable to both teams if it can be done as a three-way with Bradley going to a third team for a pick (sent to Indiana) and Brown replacing Crowder. The Cs would then be able to keep the 2017 and 2018 picks while also protecting themselves from the possibility that George ends up traded to to the Lakers (which would lower the value of the 2018 Lakers pick). The Pacers would get a young piece to build around in Brown and whatever pick(s) Bradley nets. .
     
  37. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    You'd be willing to deal Brown in a deal for George without any kind of wink wink nod assurance? I'd do Bradley/Crowder and 2 non Nets/Lakers/Kings picks. The 2018 Nets and likely 2019 Kings picks are too valuable to give up on a potential rental along with 2 quality starters in Bradley/Crowder.
     
  38. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Looks like IT4+Rozier equals Bradley's contract but IT4, Crowder and Rozier is way too much. AB+IT4 should work since IT4 makes slightly more than Crowder. That trade would also leave us with Marcus Smart as our PG unless they pick one at #3. Lonzo Ball would make the board implode.

    Not saying they should make that trade, just that I think it works. 2 starters and 2 picks is a hell of a lot to give up for a rental though. Even if those 2 starters are FA at the end of the season as well. I guess if Ainge has no intention of signing either one of AB or IT4 to long term deals. Still seems like a waste of assets. Plus IT4 has the whole injury thing.
     
  39. smastroyin

    smastroyin simpering whimperer Dope SoSH Member

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    Just as a point of interest, I do think once all of the renouncing, etc., is done, the Celtics, Bulls, and Pacers will all have enough head space under the cap (including various holds) that you don't need salary matches. I'd have to do all of the math. But, that means you're waiting until after FA starts to make this trade.

    For instance, I can make this trade work on the NBA trade machine because both teams are enough under the cap.
     
    #39 smastroyin, Jun 18, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2017
  40. Cellar-Door

    Cellar-Door Member SoSH Member

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    12,792
    You're looking at the wrong year. IT4 makes less next year than this, Crowder makes more, so Crowder actually makes about 600k more. However you're right it works because the new cutoff is 19.6M in the CBA so the Celtics only need to send out 14.3M in salary.
     
  41. luckiestman

    luckiestman Son of the Harpy SoSH Member

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    5,867
    If Cs can get PG (will he stay?) and Hayward, that is a nice squad.

    I just don't think you give up any big pieces if the guy is not committed to staying.
     
  42. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Now that I think about it, If Gordon Hayward is willing to sign here I would trade AB+Crowder plus 2 1st from the group of Bos 18, Bos 20, Memphis/LAC 19 for Paul George even if it is a rental. It might not win the title but it would be a fun year. And long term, it doesn't set us back much. Maybe one of the Memphis or LAC picks ends up being nice but that would require luck and you wouldn't see those picks until 2021.

    They have to pick between one of AB or IT4 long term (or neither) and while Jae is nice, Jaylen could replace George in 2018/19 if George Walks. Plus whoever they draft at #3. They'd also still have the Lakers/Kings pick to play with. I doubt those are the type of 1st round picks the Pacers are looking for though.
     
  43. Cellar-Door

    Cellar-Door Member SoSH Member

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    You can only go 100K over in the process of the trade without an exception though. Celtics are going to be almost nothing under the cap after signing a free agent. That's what I'm talking about on the above 14.3M post.. Basically if you send out less than 19.6M, you can take back up to $5M more than you send out. George makes 19.3M next year so 14.3 is the minimum the Celtics can send out to get him in a trade.

    Edit - http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q82 82-84 there covers it
     
  44. Red Averages

    Red Averages owes you $50 SoSH Member

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    Yes, absolutely you do that.
     
  45. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Of course they could do this entire hypothetical deal without trading the 1st pick in the draft.
     
  46. bosockboy

    bosockboy lurker

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    I think leaving the Cavs out of the George scenarios is a mistake. Love+something could make that happen.
     
  47. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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  48. JCizzle

    JCizzle Member SoSH Member

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    This is why, in my opinion, you shouldn't really spend much in the way of assets to win now. You basically get a 1-2 (depending on PG or Butler) year window before the money starts getting crazy. Paying one more max guy is fine with just cap, spending assets plus money for another seems like a waste.
     
  49. kazuneko

    kazuneko Member SoSH Member

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    1,908
    If only the Cs had a young, cost controlled star at PG so they could afford to let IT walk in 2018. Too bad they don't the number one overall this year.. :(
     
  50. Grin&MartyBarret

    Grin&MartyBarret Member SoSH Member

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    If you add George and Hayward, I don't think IT is even the sort of PG you need or want. He seems expendable in that scenario, so worrying about how you afford all 4 seems unnecessary.
     

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