This is true too. There is really no degree of separation from a lot of these prospects and it's far too early to tell how it's going to play out.
Jaylen Brown - underrated?
- Thread starter Koufax
- Start date
Looking at these videos tells me one thing: JB likes to make videos. It reminds me of the time when Cedric Maxwell got injured and the broadcasters showed video of how hard Cedric was working to come back. A short time later he was traded. Red was furious that he wasn't putting out the effort.
Well with regard to the bolded, other than Simmons - simply because we don't know much about him - I don't see any other player at the top of the draft getting the same minutes on the Cs this year. Chriss maybe but he's in foul trouble a lot and seemed to be worse at making rotations on defense. Ingram, Bender, Murray, etc. have the reputation of not being able to guard people.
I don't watch enough of the other guys to know who would be redrafted where but here are two things that I'm sure are absolutely true:
(1) From DA's comments, neither DA nor the GMs with whom he tries to make trades see Jaylen as a throw-in, particularly given the fact that Danny basically hangs up the phone when his name comes up.
(2) No sane GM would make a trade and insist that DA include Yabu over Brown.
JB played real minutes in game 7 of the Conference semi-finals. What more can you ask of him? At this point - without getting into the silly floor or ceiling debate - he remains as bright of a prospect as any player out of that draft. Maybe he stagnates this upcoming year but given how much work he is putting in, I wouldn't bet against him.
What is this, Intro to Metaphysics and Epistemology? It's one more piece of evidence, along with all the other ones we've got, that he puts in the work. Of course we can't be sure of anything, but all signs point to him working extremely hard.
Jaylen has a long way to go. The playoff performances were encouraging, but the guy averaged under a steal per 36 minutes and more turnovers than assists. My understanding is that it's rare for guys to develop from that sort of player into one who does generate a ton of steals or a lot of assists. And the list of things he needs to improve: his shooting, his rotations, his handle, his vision, active hands on defense -ź is much, much longer than the things he does well, which is get to the hole and smother Bogdanovich. But, as HRB likes to remind us, he's 20, and if he can even improve one of those things a year, he could be a really, really good player.
This. I don't think there's a good statistical answer to the question of how playing on a winning team vs a losing one impacts the numbers - there just aren't enough top picks going to winning teams. I think his progression from year 1 to years 2 and 3 will tell us more.
Absolutely. This isn't a player comparison thing - it's just looking at which players who started off with a similar overall box-score value as him had the higher peaks. This is a very quick and dirty look only, without any deeper focus on play style, or athleticism, etc... I think it's not promising all the same however, since as you note, the best case scenarios were mostly role players (and there are a bunch of outright busts that I didn't list as well).
Edit: Sorry, posted this by accident before I was ready.
I wanted to look at some particular areas and see how rookies fared. I took the top 11 small forwards by ESPN's RPM for this year (11 because George is 11th this year) and added Jimmy Butler (general interest) and Jeff Green (fear). The numbers below are their rookie numbers. (I used Covington's age 24 season because he only played 34 minutes in his age 23 season.)
Minutes (Age):
James (19) - 3122
Durant (19) - 2768
Iguodola (21) - 2686
Jeff Green (21) - 2253
Covington (24) - 1956
Antetokounmpo (19) - 1897
Leonard (20) - 1534
Crowder (22) - 1353
Brown (20) - 1341
George (20) - 1265
Hayward (20) - 1218
Gallinari (20) - 412
Butler (22) - 359
Porter (20) - 319
Usage %:
James - 28.2%
Durant - 28.1%
Covington - 21.8%
Jeff Green - 19.4%
Brown - 18.1%
George - 17.8%
Gallinari - 16.0%
Porter - 15.6%
Hayward - 15.3%
Crowder - 15.1%
Antetokounmpo - 15.0%
Butler - 14.9%
Leonard - 14.5%
Iguodola - 12.8%
True Shooting %:
Gallinari - .621
Iguodola - .580
Hayward - .578
Leonard - .573
Covington - .554
George - .542
Brown - .539
Butler - .526
Durant - .519
Antetokounmpo - .518
Jeff Green - .491
Crowder - .491
James - .488
Porter - .405
3pt % (attempts per 100):
Hayward - .473 (3.2)
Gallinari - .444 (8.7)
Leonard - .376 (3.7)
Covington - .374 (11.4)
Antetokounmpo - .347 (3.3)
Brown - .341 (5.0)
Iguodola - .331 (2.7)
Crowder - .328 (7.2)
George - .297 (5.5)
James - .290 (3.7)
Durant - .288 (3.7)
Jeff Green - .276 (1.7)
Porter - .190 (3.4)
Butler - .182 (1.6)
FT %:
Gallinari - .963
Durant - .873
Covington - .820
Leonard - .773
Butler - .768
George - .762
James - .754
Jeff Green - .744
Iguodola - .743
Hayward - .711
Brown - .685
Antetokounmpo - .683
Porter - .667
Crowder - .644
Points / 100 possessions:
Durant - 29.2
James - 28.0
Covington - 24.2
Gallinari - 20.5
George - 19.1
Brown - 19.0
Jeff Green - 18.5
Leonard - 17.1
Hayward - 16.8
Butler - 16.3
Crowder - 14.8
Antetokounmpo - 14.5
Iguodola - 13.9
Porter - 12.6
Reb / 100 possessions:
Leonard - 11.0
Antetokounmpo - 9.3
Porter - 9.2
George - 9.0
Iguodola - 8.7
Jeff Green - 8.4
Butler - 8.4
Brown - 8.1
Covington - 8.1
James - 7.3
Crowder - 7.1
Gallinari - 6.6
Durant - 6.3
Hayward - 6.0
Steals / 100 possessions:
Leonard - 2.9
Iguodola - 2.6
George - 2.5
Covington - 2.5
Crowder - 2.4
James - 2.2
Antetokounmpo - 1.7
Gallinari - 1.7
Butler - 1.6
Durant - 1.4
Brown - 1.3
Hayward - 1.3
Porter - 1.3
Jeff Green - 1.0
Assists / 100 possessions:
James - 7.9
Iguodola - 4.6
Antetokounmpo - 4.1
Crowder - 3.5
Durant - 3.5
Hayward - 3.5
Covington - 2.7
George - 2.6
Jeff Green - 2.6
Brown - 2.4
Leonard - 2.4
Butler - 2.1
Gallinari - 1.8
Porter - 1.6
TO / 100 possessions:
Leonard - 1.5
Crowder - 1.8
Gallinari - 1.8
Butler - 2.1
Porter - 2.3
Brown - 2.5
Iguodola - 2.6
George - 2.8
Hayward - 3.0
Covington - 3.3
Antetokounmpo - 3.4
Jeff Green - 3.5
Durant - 4.2
James - 4.6
I wanted to look at some particular areas and see how rookies fared. I took the top 11 small forwards by ESPN's RPM for this year (11 because George is 11th this year) and added Jimmy Butler (general interest) and Jeff Green (fear). The numbers below are their rookie numbers. (I used Covington's age 24 season because he only played 34 minutes in his age 23 season.)
Minutes (Age):
James (19) - 3122
Durant (19) - 2768
Iguodola (21) - 2686
Jeff Green (21) - 2253
Covington (24) - 1956
Antetokounmpo (19) - 1897
Leonard (20) - 1534
Crowder (22) - 1353
Brown (20) - 1341
George (20) - 1265
Hayward (20) - 1218
Gallinari (20) - 412
Butler (22) - 359
Porter (20) - 319
Usage %:
James - 28.2%
Durant - 28.1%
Covington - 21.8%
Jeff Green - 19.4%
Brown - 18.1%
George - 17.8%
Gallinari - 16.0%
Porter - 15.6%
Hayward - 15.3%
Crowder - 15.1%
Antetokounmpo - 15.0%
Butler - 14.9%
Leonard - 14.5%
Iguodola - 12.8%
True Shooting %:
Gallinari - .621
Iguodola - .580
Hayward - .578
Leonard - .573
Covington - .554
George - .542
Brown - .539
Butler - .526
Durant - .519
Antetokounmpo - .518
Jeff Green - .491
Crowder - .491
James - .488
Porter - .405
3pt % (attempts per 100):
Hayward - .473 (3.2)
Gallinari - .444 (8.7)
Leonard - .376 (3.7)
Covington - .374 (11.4)
Antetokounmpo - .347 (3.3)
Brown - .341 (5.0)
Iguodola - .331 (2.7)
Crowder - .328 (7.2)
George - .297 (5.5)
James - .290 (3.7)
Durant - .288 (3.7)
Jeff Green - .276 (1.7)
Porter - .190 (3.4)
Butler - .182 (1.6)
FT %:
Gallinari - .963
Durant - .873
Covington - .820
Leonard - .773
Butler - .768
George - .762
James - .754
Jeff Green - .744
Iguodola - .743
Hayward - .711
Brown - .685
Antetokounmpo - .683
Porter - .667
Crowder - .644
Points / 100 possessions:
Durant - 29.2
James - 28.0
Covington - 24.2
Gallinari - 20.5
George - 19.1
Brown - 19.0
Jeff Green - 18.5
Leonard - 17.1
Hayward - 16.8
Butler - 16.3
Crowder - 14.8
Antetokounmpo - 14.5
Iguodola - 13.9
Porter - 12.6
Reb / 100 possessions:
Leonard - 11.0
Antetokounmpo - 9.3
Porter - 9.2
George - 9.0
Iguodola - 8.7
Jeff Green - 8.4
Butler - 8.4
Brown - 8.1
Covington - 8.1
James - 7.3
Crowder - 7.1
Gallinari - 6.6
Durant - 6.3
Hayward - 6.0
Steals / 100 possessions:
Leonard - 2.9
Iguodola - 2.6
George - 2.5
Covington - 2.5
Crowder - 2.4
James - 2.2
Antetokounmpo - 1.7
Gallinari - 1.7
Butler - 1.6
Durant - 1.4
Brown - 1.3
Hayward - 1.3
Porter - 1.3
Jeff Green - 1.0
Assists / 100 possessions:
James - 7.9
Iguodola - 4.6
Antetokounmpo - 4.1
Crowder - 3.5
Durant - 3.5
Hayward - 3.5
Covington - 2.7
George - 2.6
Jeff Green - 2.6
Brown - 2.4
Leonard - 2.4
Butler - 2.1
Gallinari - 1.8
Porter - 1.6
TO / 100 possessions:
Leonard - 1.5
Crowder - 1.8
Gallinari - 1.8
Butler - 2.1
Porter - 2.3
Brown - 2.5
Iguodola - 2.6
George - 2.8
Hayward - 3.0
Covington - 3.3
Antetokounmpo - 3.4
Jeff Green - 3.5
Durant - 4.2
James - 4.6
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What about the overall performance of the 4 players you listed? The only one who outperformed their expectations as a rookie was Scal and he did so on a 25-win team. I don't place much weight on the rookie year results of a 19-year old in limited opportunities.
Redrafting after year 2 is a much better way to go. As of now I don't deel any of those guys actually passed Jaylen on my board. As mentioned above, I wouldn't expect any of those guys to earn playoff minutes on the Celtics last year and Jaylen really should have had many more with the advantageous matchups that the Wizards presented.
A few thoughts on Jaylen Brown; as has been the case for a while I find myself roughly in the middle of the discussion in how I evaluate him.
First, I think it's a mistake to compare box-score stats of a 20 year old playing a supporting role on a very good team to guys getting a lot of reps on bad teams---it's apples and oranges.
Second, I continue to have a level of concern that Brown hasn't shown any particular 'plus' skill. There are a bunch of skills that might get there--man to man defense; shooting; creating his own shot. But none are there yet, and thus it remains a question.
Third, the secondary stats with Brown continue to be less than you'd want.
Finally, some context---do even those who doubt Brown think he showed less last year than Brandon Ingram? I am, as above shows, far from sold on Brown but I thought he showed a lot more than Ingram, who was really disappointing. It's far too soon to give up on him too, but perspective is important when talking about 20 year olds in the NBA I think
To be clear, I was a Jamal Murray guy last year not a Brown guy. But I do like what we got more than I thought I would.
First, I think it's a mistake to compare box-score stats of a 20 year old playing a supporting role on a very good team to guys getting a lot of reps on bad teams---it's apples and oranges.
Second, I continue to have a level of concern that Brown hasn't shown any particular 'plus' skill. There are a bunch of skills that might get there--man to man defense; shooting; creating his own shot. But none are there yet, and thus it remains a question.
Third, the secondary stats with Brown continue to be less than you'd want.
Finally, some context---do even those who doubt Brown think he showed less last year than Brandon Ingram? I am, as above shows, far from sold on Brown but I thought he showed a lot more than Ingram, who was really disappointing. It's far too soon to give up on him too, but perspective is important when talking about 20 year olds in the NBA I think
To be clear, I was a Jamal Murray guy last year not a Brown guy. But I do like what we got more than I thought I would.
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Just a note, I wonder if minutes played is one of the better indicators of future success for young players (particularly rookies). In essence, you're using coaches' insights as a proxy for projected player quality. And with such a small sample, that might be the best kind of data available. Yes, there are caveats, like mediocre players force fed minutes on terrible teams, but there are caveats with any of these kinds of projections.
Brown played on a team where he had to compete for minutes. If he had played on a crap team, he probably would have averaged 10-15 points a game and stood out more than any other player in the draft. His man defense is near or at the top of any rookie, as well. If we leave out Simmons, I would have Brown, Chriss, and Ingram in the top tier and I think there's a good case to take him first.
I will say that I think Danny missed an opportunity last year to move up for Chriss. He's still raw, but his ceiling is high. Maybe he and Brown were a bit redundant?
He was playing on an excellent team, highly unusual for a highly drafted rookie. Encouraging he got minutes, of course, but he's likely to have got better opportunities when playing on a good deep team. You can't just ignore that either.
I don't think any of those guys are necessarily better than Brown, I just don't think they are worse either. I don't think we really know anything about last years rookie class yet.
I'm guessing most people on this board would take Jaylen Brown over Devin Booker. Booker is younger than Jaylen Brown. I dunno. I know they are different players but I don't know how anyone would think Jaylen has more value around the league.
I'm guessing most people on this board would take Jaylen Brown over Devin Booker. Booker is younger than Jaylen Brown. I dunno. I know they are different players but I don't know how anyone would think Jaylen has more value around the league.
I don't think many here would take Brown over Booker. That seems nuts to me, and I think Booker is one of the more overrated guys in the league.
People were saying #3 and JB was worth far more than #4 and Booker. They were saying #3 and AB or Crowder was more than 4 and Booker. There is no way they value 1 slot that highly.
Fwiw, in the most recent "Dunc'd On" podcast, both Nate Duncan and Danny LeRoux said they preferred Jaylen Brown as a prospect to Jayson Tatum.
(NB @ both Brown and Tatum: the Ys in your first names are superfluous).
(NB @ both Brown and Tatum: the Ys in your first names are superfluous).
I think it's very hard to make the case for Brown over Booker, and don't think many people would do so. Booker may have hit his 'ceiling' already, but that ceiling is at or above the most likely outcome for Brown. And I like Brown generally, but we need to be realistic about what he has (and hasn't done) too...scoring 22 a game with a decent (not very good) secondary skillset is well past what Brown has shown even in college.
I dunno, I agree about Jayson but there's a subtle difference in the way I say Jalen vs. Jaylen, with the latter's long a being slightly more pronounced. Maybe it's just me.
Booker's VORP was a good bit better (0.5 VORP isn't nothing - check the BPM to see the actual gap on a per minute basis). But yes, I think Booker is sneaky bad (a "lie" I think I called him in another thread). Even so, they're the same age, and Booker looks to have secured himself at least a solid floor as a Jamal Crawford type, who can at the very least run a 2nd unit offense.
I think Brown is probably higher upside however.
Hmm... maybe it's just me, but I definitely make no distinction between "Jalen" Rose and "Jaylen" Brown.
If you asked the 30 GMs to re-rank last year's draft class, I'd wager that the median ranking for Brown would probably be #3 behind Simmons and Ingram, but I also bet that there would be some wildly divergent rankings with Chriss, Brogdon, Hield, Murray, Skal and Maker all in the mix to push Brown back. We just don't have enough information on Brown or any of the other players to make a definitive statement on how this draft will shake out.
Jaylen makes the NBA Rookie 2nd Team.
Brogdon, Saric, Embiid, Hield, W.Hermangomez on the 1st Team.
Brogdon, Saric, Embiid, Hield, W.Hermangomez on the 1st Team.
All 5 of the 1st teamers are 23 or older. Jaylen, at 20, is the second-oldest member of the 2nd team behind Yogi Ferrell (24).
To be fair Brown is only 4 months older than Murray (10/24/96 vs 2/23/97).
But yes Ingram is almost a full year younger as he was born in September 1997.
No surprises there on the all rook teams.
If there was a redraft I would be surprised if Jaylen Brown came ahead of Thon Maker. A seven footer who demonstrated some potential to drop threes and some ability to move well? At 19? That has to be rarer/ more valuable than an athletic swing man.
If there was a redraft I would be surprised if Jaylen Brown came ahead of Thon Maker. A seven footer who demonstrated some potential to drop threes and some ability to move well? At 19? That has to be rarer/ more valuable than an athletic swing man.
Did we ever get confirmation on Maker's age? I know there were rumors before the draft that he is actually 2-3 years older than his stated age and some teams took him off their boards because of this.
From what I saw in the playoffs, Thon Maker's only skills are being tall and able to move well for his size, jumping well, and hitting 3Ps. While some teams may find that more valuable than Jaylen Brown in any particular draft year, if - for example - there was an expansion draft, Brown would be drafted well ahead of Maker.
You have just described more or less the perfect big man in todays NBA. Its like saying Tom Brady's only skills are having a strong, accurate arm with good decision making skills and a solid pocket presence.
Does it really matter if Thon Maker is 20 or 22? He's already shown that he can play at the NBA level. It's not like you're trying to adjust for level of competition or projecting what his body will look like as he matures. He's 7'1" and shown both athleticism and outside shooting ability. That's really rare.
I'd happily swap Jaylen for a 22-year old Thon Maker, but yes, I'd say it matters. Depending what aging curve you're using, players peak at 24 to 27 or something, so if you're trying to project Maker, it's pretty salient if he's likely got 2 years of growth left, or 4 years. Every player develops differently of course.
Actually, you have that completely backwards. I'm basically saying that just because you can throw a ball through the goalposts from your knees, it doesn't make you Tom Brady.
Thon Maker is certainly valuable asset in the NBA but teams that don't happen to have a 6'11" do it all player might want someone who can do more than stand in a corner and hit 3Ps on one end.
This is roughly the same as saying Al Horford sucks because he is only an average rebounder and post scorer. The complete list of "do it all" big men in the NBA is Anthony Davis. Every team other than the Pelicans has to settle for players with some weaknesses.
If all Thon Maker can do is protect the rim, use his agility and length to take on roll men off picks, set screens, dunk and hit threes, then Thon Maker is still capable of being an all star.
I'm not sure what you are arguing against.
Sure, Thon Maker could grow into an All-Star. Never said he couldn't. Last I checked, he wasn't one yet.
The original question is whether JB would be drafted ahead of or behind Thon Maker. My guess is that most GMs at the moment would take JB over Maker, mostly because JB has a chance or already does more things well than Maker. YMMV.
Did you notice how many no skill centers were drafted this year?
You are wrong. Brown is replaceable unless he owns out very well. Teams always want two way 7 footers.
You are wrong. Brown is replaceable unless he owns out very well. Teams always want two way 7 footers.
I think you're overstating this. Sure some teams might take Maker, but Jaylen was actually projected and drafted ahead, then earned almost double Makers minutes for a better team.
Then this year 5 guards/wings 6'4" to 6'8" went above Isaac.
Theres no way you can definitively say most would now take Maker over Brown.
Can't wait!
With respect to RPM, I am highly skeptical of this as measuring stick for a rookie. It was obvious that JB's biggest limitation was an inability to make proper rotations on defense and his second was harnessing the athleticism and aggression on dribble drives. Studying tape and tightening the dribble would be skills more easily improved to the point that any attempt to forecast based on a gross number like RPM or PER would seem to have little value. Such numbers are interesting when looking at large samples of players and seasons, but I don't think I'm breaking ground here to observe that its application to a specific player on a specific season would have little value in contrast to the much maligned eye test.
It would be interesting to break down RPM into its component parts and evaluate which of those were most likely to improve over time. As an example, if Player X has a poor RPM but was a great shooter then perhaps he has a better chance to improve than the all Defense mediocre shooter with the same poor RPM.
I think JB still has star potential.
Chapter 3 in the JB workout video series. Collect them all; they're bound to become valuable.
edit: I know there are no guarantees but someone with that type of physical ability who works as hard as he does has got to be pretty darn good, doesn't he (barring injuries)?
edit: I know there are no guarantees but someone with that type of physical ability who works as hard as he does has got to be pretty darn good, doesn't he (barring injuries)?
Very interesting debate. I'm generally high on Brown due to his athleticism and the minutes he earned. I think of him as a poor man's Nique who cares about defense. When I looked at Nique's rookie (23 yo) rate stats they are surprisingly similar to Brown's.
I have thought the exact phrase "poor man's Nique" when watching him. He's less highlight reel and more fundamentals, but I see plenty of similarities in their game.