Jaylen's Junior Year '18-19

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Jaylen Brown made great strides in his sophomore campaign. While Game 7 didn't leave the best impression going into the offseason, his season leading up to that game should be the focus.

He will certainly be mentioned in trade rumors this summer. The list of players I would trade him for is relatively short, but it remains a possibility.

This summer, I'd like to see him work on his handle, continue to improve shooting and finishing in the paint.

His defense and strides in his offensive game were really remarkable, he's going to be fun to watch.

 

MillarTime

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Agree with everything you said. Handle improvement and finishing in traffic will be key for him to take the next step.

You mentioned trade rumors and it got me thinking...what player or asset would you trade him for? Obviously, you'd trade him for the Davis/Giannis types, but where is the line?

Would you trade Brown+ for Kawhi, given his past 12 months? (I'd be nervous about it)
What about Brown+ for Klay? (probably, but then you have to pay Klay...a lot)
Would you trade Brown for a top 3 pick in this years draft? (no)

Maybe this is my homerism, but having trouble with placing his value,,,
 

Cesar Crespo

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Agree with everything you said. Handle improvement and finishing in traffic will be key for him to take the next step.

You mentioned trade rumors and it got me thinking...what player or asset would you trade him for? Obviously, you'd trade him for the Davis/Giannis types, but where is the line?

Would you trade Brown+ for Kawhi, given his past 12 months? (I'd be nervous about it)
What about Brown+ for Klay? (probably, but then you have to pay Klay...a lot)
Would you trade Brown for a top 3 pick in this years draft? (no)

Maybe this is my homerism, but having trouble with placing his value,,,
No.
No.
No.

If Kawhi's health wasn't an issue, that answer changes. I think Jaylen Brown will be better than Klay Thompson, possibly even in 18-19. And we don't need a top 3 pick, this team has a chance to win a title if healthy. I want moves for 2018-19 in mind, not moves made for 2021-22.

I'd trade Brown for Giannis, Davis, Embiid, KAT off the top of my head.
 

Jimbodandy

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I'd like to see him add the pull up 15" jumper to his arsenal. Right now, he's 3 or head to the rim. I understand the logic. But his defender gets back into the play over the course of 23 feet, because he doesn't fear anything in between. Sometimes you need to stop and elevate over that guy. Tatum already has that third level. Brown can add it too.

And bang out a shitload of free throws. And watch some Larry Bird passing highlights on Youtube. He would really help the team by improving court awareness overall and finding his teammates when defensive attention is on him.
 

Manzivino

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First and foremost, he should be making 1000 FTs every day all offseason; I think defenders are confident attacking his drives because they’re not worried about putting him at the line. Definitely needs to tighten up his handle and add variety to his finishes in traffic. Cleveland had him well scouted resulting in a lot of blocked layup attempts, though I do think he was hesitant to use jump stops and Eurosteps after the hamstring injury.
 

Cesar Crespo

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He's a good enough FT shooter that if teams do employ a Hack a Jaylen, they will pay for it. 65% isn't good, but it's passable.
 

TheDeuce222

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He's a good enough FT shooter that if teams do employ a Hack a Jaylen, they will pay for it. 65% isn't good, but it's passable.
He also seemed to improve dramatically as the year went on, before a bit of a regression in the playoffs. He was driving me crazy at the line early in the year, but I became much more confident in him as the year went on. Looking at the numbers now confirms my memory somewhat: he was struggling very badly before the first of the year (.633 in October, .566 in November, a putrid .513 in December), then steadily improved from January through March (.676 in Jan, .750 in February, .905 in March), and then was back to .625 in five regular season games in April and .640 in the playoffs. I expect him to continue to improve as he becomes more comfortable and settle in as about a .750 free throw shooter.
 

lovegtm

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Agree with everything you said. Handle improvement and finishing in traffic will be key for him to take the next step.

You mentioned trade rumors and it got me thinking...what player or asset would you trade him for? Obviously, you'd trade him for the Davis/Giannis types, but where is the line?

Would you trade Brown+ for Kawhi, given his past 12 months? (I'd be nervous about it)
What about Brown+ for Klay? (probably, but then you have to pay Klay...a lot)
Would you trade Brown for a top 3 pick in this years draft? (no)

Maybe this is my homerism, but having trouble with placing his value,,,
No to Kawhi because of injuries.

No to Klay, because of cost, age, and the fact that Jaylen has a decent chance to become a much better shot creator, which has a ton of value.

No to a top 3 pick in this year's draft, because Jaylen is already close to being a very very good outcome for a top 3 pick, so you'd be increasing variance and reducing expected value. In addition, the fact that he still has 2 years of his rookie deal left makes rolling forward less appealing.
 

MillarTime

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Agree on declining those trades...so we're saying at this point he's one of the most (top 15?) valuable assets in the NBA. Jaylen deserves a ton a credit for leap he took in year 2... Danny deserves the same for seeing this in Jaylen in what was thought to be a 2-player draft.
 

DJnVa

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Wonder if we’ll get those offseason workout videos again.
 

JakeRae

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Agree on declining those trades...so we're saying at this point he's one of the most (top 15?) valuable assets in the NBA. Jaylen deserves a ton a credit for leap he took in year 2... Danny deserves the same for seeing this in Jaylen in what was thought to be a 2-player draft.
I don't think he's a top 15 most valuable asset. A lot depends on context. For example, if I'm on the other side of any of those deals, I think I say no too. (Klay is the closest because of cost.) The Celtics don't need the variance of trading a very good young player for a possible MVP candidate who may never play basketball again. But, the Spurs need their MVP candidate a lot more than they need a guy who could maybe be an All Star candidate (but probably wouldn't be).

Similarly, a bad team with a top 3 pick should be rolling the dice on landing a player with MVP upside given the strength of this draft. Brown isn't that player.

In short, I don't think the fact that the Celtics answer to those proposals is no means Brown is the more valuable asset. He's more valuable to the Celtics because of how talented they already are (and, in Klay's case, price), but I think most other teams would prefer the other options to Brown.
 

the moops

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I'd trade Brown for Giannis, Davis, Embiid, KAT off the top of my head.
There has gotta be at least another dozen guys who I would trade Brown for. I get it, he is young and we are all excited about his growth and potential. But just listing those 4 dudes as the only upgrades seems a bit light .
 

Cesar Crespo

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There has gotta be at least another dozen guys who I would trade Brown for. I get it, he is young and we are all excited about his growth and potential. But just listing those 4 dudes as the only upgrades seems a bit light .
I'm sure there are a few more but I want to see a list of 16 guys you would trade him for. And how much does age factor in? Because you have guys like LeBron, Durant, Curry, Harden and the like.

I'm sure 99% of people would trade him for Ben Simmons too, but I wouldn't.

edit: Jokic too. I mean, there are some guys that would give me pause like if Indiana offered Oladipo or Myles Turner. So I guess you aren't wrong. Maybe there are 16. Do you trade him for Dame or CJ? A lot of it would depend on team make up and the like so it's a hard question to actually answer.
 
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Jimbodandy

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I'm sure there are a few more but I want to see a list of 16 guys you would trade him for. And how much does age factor in? Because you have guys like LeBron, Durant, Curry, Harden and the like.

I'm sure 99% of people would trade him for Ben Simmons too, but I wouldn't.

edit: Jokic too. I mean, there are some guys that would give me pause like if Indiana offered Oladipo or Myles Turner. So I guess you aren't wrong. Maybe there are 16. Do you trade him for Dame or CJ? A lot of it would depend on team make up and the like so it's a hard question to actually answer.
Exactly. I don't think that anyone is saying that Brown is a top 15 player. There's age, contract status, team fit, salary, and a dozen other considerations. All things considered, I think that I could find 15 guys that I'd trade him for, and I'm the world's biggest Brown fan. But the fact that this is a serious conversation says a lot about his development.

I'm in the camp that expects him to come back even better. For all of the Tatum and Pierce comparisons, I find that Jaylen's competitiveness and shoulder chip reminds me more of PP than anyone that we have had since then. He has a simmering confidence about him that I love. He expects to put in the work and be great.
 
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Reverend

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I kinda get the sense that Jaylen's spirit on the team is part of the reason Danny could trade IT so easily, despite IT ostensibly being the heart and soul of the team. Those preseason comments from Brown that concerned some about where the team is going now appear to be good signs of a cornerstone team character guy.

Especially if they lose Smart, I can't imagine that wouldn't increase Jaylen's role as key to a team culture they seem pretty obviously intentionally trying to build, e.g. Horford, Hayward (Stevens prodigy), Brown, Tatum (and Morris's mentorship), etc...
 

the moops

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I'm sure there are a few more but I want to see a list of 16 guys you would trade him for. And how much does age factor in? Because you have guys like LeBron, Durant, Curry, Harden and the like.

I'm sure 99% of people would trade him for Ben Simmons too, but I wouldn't.

edit: Jokic too. I mean, there are some guys that would give me pause like if Indiana offered Oladipo or Myles Turner. So I guess you aren't wrong. Maybe there are 16. Do you trade him for Dame or CJ? A lot of it would depend on team make up and the like so it's a hard question to actually answer.
Yea, these what ifs are always hard for they involve salary considerations. I would trade Brown for plenty of veteran players, but because of Brown's rookie deal, it requires the trade to be Brown + a bunch of salary (and BOS does not have any bad salary so it is is actually value added).

But how about other players on their rookie deals? That might be a more realistic view of how valuable Brown is. For me, the only for sure guys on that list would be

Towns, Jokic, Simmons, Embiid, Porzingis, Mitchell
 

JakeRae

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I'm sure there are a few more but I want to see a list of 16 guys you would trade him for. And how much does age factor in? Because you have guys like LeBron, Durant, Curry, Harden and the like.

I'm sure 99% of people would trade him for Ben Simmons too, but I wouldn't.

edit: Jokic too. I mean, there are some guys that would give me pause like if Indiana offered Oladipo or Myles Turner. So I guess you aren't wrong. Maybe there are 16. Do you trade him for Dame or CJ? A lot of it would depend on team make up and the like so it's a hard question to actually answer.
  1. LeBron
  2. Curry
  3. Harden
  4. Butler
  5. Towns
  6. Tatum
  7. Simmons
  8. Davis
  9. Giannis
  10. Oladipo
  11. Jokic
  12. Draymond
  13. Davis
  14. Gobert
  15. Durant
  16. Embiid
That's 16. It doesn't include guys that are a closer call like Capela, Kawhi (injury), Porzingis, Paul (health and age), Kyrie, Horford, Hayward, Mitchell, Klay, Lowry, Lillard, DeRozan, Westbrook, George, and Wall.

I could name other borderline options, and I'm not saying I'd definitely take all of these players over Brown, but he's closer to 30 than 15 in terms of value in the league right now after accounting for both present talent, ceiling, and age. That's a great spot to be, and he may keep rising, but top 15 is going overboard.
 

The Mort Report

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Not to derail the thread but also team fit comes into play. There is no reason to trade him for a PG since we have Kyrie, and trading him for a wing outside of a few guys doesn’t help either. If the discussion involves a center then you have to listen. So while a guy like Simmons would be more valuable in a vacuum, he is not more valuable than Brown to the Celtics because Kyrie takes the ball out of his hands
 

Eddie Jurak

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At this stage, I'm less high on Brown than on Tatum. I think Tatum's going to be one of those offensive players who controls a game be being able to create a shot for himself or a teammate whenever it is necessary. Brown I don't think is going to get there, but he's still young with more time to progress, so I could end up selling him short.

What I do think is that he'll be a tremendous fit on this current Celtic team, playing alongside guys like Irving, Tatum, Hayward, and Horford. Free throw issues aside he's a very good shooter, and with those teammates he'll get plenty of open looks from three - and he'll combine knocking down those shots with a devastating ability to drive closeouts. On top of that, he's got the athleticsim to work in the transition game, and he'll develop some ability to post up and to move the ball effectively.

Then there's the defensive side of the game, where his size and athleticism will allow him to defend smaller wings and switch onto 4 different positions (5 on teams with an offensively challenged center).

A big question for him will be what happens next year. He made a huge leap from year 1 to year 2 - does he have another leap in him from 2 to 3? He's already far more valuable than the guy whose job he inhereited (Bradley).
 

Soxfan in Fla

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  1. LeBron
  2. Curry
  3. Harden
  4. Butler
  5. Towns
  6. Tatum
  7. Simmons
  8. Davis
  9. Giannis
  10. Oladipo
  11. Jokic
  12. Draymond
  13. Davis
  14. Gobert
  15. Durant
  16. Embiid
That's 16. It doesn't include guys that are a closer call like Capela, Kawhi (injury), Porzingis, Paul (health and age), Kyrie, Horford, Hayward, Mitchell, Klay, Lowry, Lillard, DeRozan, Westbrook, George, and Wall.

I could name other borderline options, and I'm not saying I'd definitely take all of these players over Brown, but he's closer to 30 than 15 in terms of value in the league right now after accounting for both present talent, ceiling, and age. That's a great spot to be, and he may keep rising, but top 15 is going overboard.
This seems like a silly exercise. Yes you’d trade Jaylen for any of those 16. But is there even a 1% chance any of those 16 is available in a trade? I highly doubt it.
 

jasail

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I'd agree that Jaylen's value is probably just north of 30th in the league. However, among the 30 or so guys ahead of him, only a few may be available and are a good fit given the C's roster and cap space. So, there are probably less than a handful of guys I would consider moving Jaylen in a package for.

Ultimately, I think he ends up in green next season. And when he does there are two things I'd love to see him work on.

First, is multifaceted but can basically be summarized as finishing on dribble drives. This includes his handle and dribble moves to get to the rim more cleanly; it also includes his ability to finish at the rim once he gets there; and lastly, he needs to improve his recognition of the double team and figure out how to pass out of it. He has the strength and athleticism to get to the paint at will, but far too often he doesn't know what to do once he gets there and he turns it over. More moves, more strength and better court awareness should help him there.

Second, I'd love to see him work on his in between game. Adding that 3rd level of scoring would be huge. He showed some ability to do it around the line and the elbows. I'd like to see that get more consistent. Having this type of game would help him post up smaller and slower wings. Having to respect his drive, he gets some space to work with.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'm not sure how much more strength he can add. Dude is already strong. If he can improves his handles and play making ability, he's essentially the guy he was compared to coming out of the draft, albeit a worse FT shooter. That player being Jimmy Butler.
 

mauf

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Shooting, shooting, shooting. That’s what Jaylen needs to work on this summer. There are other gaps in his game, but shooting is the one he can do most to address in a gym by himself; other skills he needs to hone will be addressed by game experience more so than gym reps. As Rev says, Jaylen is a high-character guy — I have no doubt he’ll put in the work.

Also, I’m hoping his tentativeness around the rim (not every time, but in spots) since his concussion are a product of doctors warning him of the consequences of suffering another concussion so soon after the last one, as opposed to a lasting change to his game.
 

the moops

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He shot 40% from three this year. He has the shot and the respect of the defense on that shot. He needs to work on his handles so that when he does get closed out on, he can get to the rim. Or when he needs to create for himself, he can get by a man.
 

Deathofthebambino

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He really, really needs to work on his whining and complaining to the officials. I say that only partially tongue in cheek. He gets so few calls when he goes up strong and gets hammered that I think it's having a detrimental effect on his development when it comes to finishing at the hoop. If you continue to take it up strong, and defenders are continuously allowed to hack you, resulting in you coming away with nothing, it's going to result in changing your approach, and I believe that's what we see from Jaylen quite a bit. Instead of going up strong, he'll do everything he can to avoid contact, usually in mid-air, and end up taking some kind of circus shot just so he can get the ball cleanly to the rim. Or he gets tentative, and that's when he hesitates for a split second, and someone comes along and strips him.

He needs to figure out how to sell these calls and get them from the refs. Maybe not so much whining and complaining, but when he gets hit, he needs to make sure the refs know he got hit, whether it means he goes to the ground more, yells in pain or whatever, he can't wait until after the play is over to get on the refs because it's too late, he needs to sell it during the moment, the way guys like Harden and Westbrook and Lebron do. Once he starts getting these calls and getting to the line, I think we'll see that confidence return, and he'll start going strong at the rim like we've seen him do on many occasions.

And when he does go strong to the hoop, he needs to remember he can simply jump over most of the guys in the league and instead of trying to make some pretty finger roll, or lay it in with the left, just dunk the damn ball. Dunk it hard, dunk it often and dunk it on people. He seems to pass up a lot of dunks for layups when he's in traffic, and again, i think it relates to the lack of calls more than anything, but he needs to use his athleticism to it's fullest advantage and that means flushing it in someone's face on a nightly basis.
 

Reverend

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He really, really needs to work on his whining and complaining to the officials. I say that only partially tongue in cheek. He gets so few calls when he goes up strong and gets hammered that I think it's having a detrimental effect on his development when it comes to finishing at the hoop. If you continue to take it up strong, and defenders are continuously allowed to hack you, resulting in you coming away with nothing, it's going to result in changing your approach, and I believe that's what we see from Jaylen quite a bit. Instead of going up strong, he'll do everything he can to avoid contact, usually in mid-air, and end up taking some kind of circus shot just so he can get the ball cleanly to the rim. Or he gets tentative, and that's when he hesitates for a split second, and someone comes along and strips him.

He needs to figure out how to sell these calls and get them from the refs. Maybe not so much whining and complaining, but when he gets hit, he needs to make sure the refs know he got hit, whether it means he goes to the ground more, yells in pain or whatever, he can't wait until after the play is over to get on the refs because it's too late, he needs to sell it during the moment, the way guys like Harden and Westbrook and Lebron do. Once he starts getting these calls and getting to the line, I think we'll see that confidence return, and he'll start going strong at the rim like we've seen him do on many occasions.

And when he does go strong to the hoop, he needs to remember he can simply jump over most of the guys in the league and instead of trying to make some pretty finger roll, or lay it in with the left, just dunk the damn ball. Dunk it hard, dunk it often and dunk it on people. He seems to pass up a lot of dunks for layups when he's in traffic, and again, i think it relates to the lack of calls more than anything, but he needs to use his athleticism to it's fullest advantage and that means flushing it in someone's face on a nightly basis.
This is a far more detailed version of what I've been saying about Tatum as well.

And I think there is every reason to believe the situation will improve with both--for the same reasons I said about Tatum. So the upside is still... way up there.
 

Jimbodandy

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Jaylen still reminds me (offensively) most of this guy: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wilkido01.html

While the latter's rookie year was as a 23yo, not a 20yo, he still made at least three "leaps". I think that you can make a case that he made four adjustments, since his tweaks from year four to year five were nontrivial improvements in both assists and turnovers. And while he never became a good distributor, he settled in the 3APG vicinity.

Of course the 3PT numbers aren't comparable due to the different era.

My hope is that the right kind of work ethic can see similar growth at least in a player who started out so much younger.
 

Koufax

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I hope you're right. That would be spectacularly fun to watch.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Pretty amazing the progression of how we talk about Jaylen. It used to be “you know the way he moves reminds me of...” to “he looks like X but really needs to improve Y...” and now we’re at “well he started way younger than X and is a much better shooter and improved much more at a younger age and and and...”
 

TripleOT

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I too like the Dominique comparison. "Nique had more raw explosiveness, and he knew how to use it to get to the rim with authority. JB isn't there yet. Plus, in Wilkins' era, there was a lot of congestion near the rim, with the three not yet allowing for spread-ball, so he grew up having to take the ball strong all the time. Jaylen came up looking at driving lanes where he could lope to the hoop from long distances, while 'Nique would uncoil to attack the rim from closer starting distances.

Brown could look at Tatum's game, where JT gets his finishes around the rim using full extension, great body positioning, and the rim as a protector a lot of the time. For an explosive guy, Brown doesn't utilize full extension much. He used power forays to the hoop at bad angles, and gets caught up in traffic. Much of the time, this happens because he spent a split second thinking about driving before actually driving.

I watched all of the Tatum and Brown off season workout videos. Tatum gets higher level skills coaching than Brown. It looks like they both work hard. Brown might want to get one of the elite trainers, like Tatum's Drew Hanlen, or Rob MCClaghanan, to fix his dribble/drive game.
 

mauf

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Jaylen is already a better defender than Nique ever was.

Hard to compare their offensive games, as Nique had a 30.3 USG% for his career. Jaylen might play his entire career without a 10-game stretch where his usage is that high.
 

Euclis20

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Jaylen is already a better defender than Nique ever was.

Hard to compare their offensive games, as Nique had a 30.3 USG% for his career. Jaylen might play his entire career without a 10-game stretch where his usage is that high.
Your point is very well taken, but Jaylen just had a 27.8% usage rate in the conference finals as a 21 year old. If he's ever on a team where he's the number 1 option, it wouldn't be surprising to see him approach 30% from time to time.
 

Jimbodandy

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Jaylen is already a better defender than Nique ever was.

Hard to compare their offensive games, as Nique had a 30.3 USG% for his career. Jaylen might play his entire career without a 10-game stretch where his usage is that high.
There are some obvious differences. And aside from the similarities in size, explosiveness, etc., one great part about Dominique's historical record is a steady progression in a shitload of offensive areas in his first four offseasons. And he entered the league almost three years older than Brown did. That's part of the reason why I'm so optimistic that this type of progress should continue. The other reason is that he's already had one great leap season.
 

MarkBT

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Ball handling, ball handling, and (more) more handling. While he's never going to as natural with the rock in his hands as some of his young peers on the wing, enhancing his confidence with the rock should have a noticeable effect on his offense. I find myself most frustrated when JB awkwardly fumbles when he's attacking the paint on a fast break. He has this habit of double pumping or stopping his drive a couple feet from the basket to sort of gather/control himself. This habit allows defenders who otherwise have no business bothering his finishes at the rim strip the ball or throw him off balance.

If he can improve his handle such that he is not thinking about it as he's making his way to the basket, he can finish those drives with much more confidence and purpose, improving his FG% in the paint and probably draw even more fouls.
 

ugmo33

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How about a little love for his awesome weak-side help D? He was frequently the one coming over to help on Lebron and also in the first two rounds and had a few amazing blocks and steals. Along with his mostly-awesome catch and shoot skills, he is gong to be such an amazing contributor to the team next year when his usage takes a hit.

Also, I agree with most of the posts here that Jaylen's most glaring weakness (aside from free throws) is his finishing at the rim. Improving his handle will help but mostly it seems like he needs to improve decision making once he gets to the hoop. He frequently seems indecisive once he gets in the air and ends up throwing up a lot of shots on his way down which doesn't really look like an intentional way to finish after contact. so basically he needs a PUMP FAKE!
 

JCizzle

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Zach Lowe dropped a glowing article on Jaylen today.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23847072/zach-lowe-kawhi-leonard-jaylen-brown-celtics-spurs-trades

There's also this: What if Brown is on a path to becoming the next Kawhi Leonard?

There are striking statistical and stylistic similarities between Brown and the Leonard of 2012 and 2013. Like Leonard then, Brown already profiles as an elite multi-positional wing defender.

...

But sometimes smart, tenacious and skilled players defy reasonable. Leonard did. Brown might. His jump from Year 1 to Year 2 was jarring. The Celtics aren't ready to put a ceiling on him, and they shouldn't be. He may never crack the top five in MVP voting, but it is not a stretch to imagine Brown making an All-NBA team and busting into some of those lofty "two-way player" conversations.