Jimmy G to 49ers for 2nd round pick

bakahump

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3 thoughts
1. Brady is obviously healthy for the stretch run
2. It will be awesome when Kaep not only sings the National Anthem, but also helps fold that big ass flag they use pregame after one quick Chat with BB.
3. BB obviously was a witness to the contract that TB and the Devil signed in the offseason.
 

tims4wins

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Yeah, I agree with all of this. The trade makes sense and I get why they are doing this. I like the trade. I'm just saying the reports that they woke up yesterday and suddenly realized Jimmy was never going to sign an extension to remain as Brady's backup for potentially multiple more years don't make sense to me. Unless Jimmy was being completely dishonest with them about what he wanted, which I guess is a possibility. But presumably Jimmy is a competitive guy and it should not come as any surprise to anyone on the Pats that once Brady started tearing up the league and showing absolutely no signs of slowing down that Jimmy's preference was going to be to play out his current deal and force the Pats to franchise him and/or trade him for a chance to start.
Clearly they didn't wake up yesterday and decide this; the trade deadline was bearing down, so they had to either make a move or sit on it.

I kind of liken this trade to the Manny trade in that on the surface it is disappointing, but they did the best they could do given the circumstances. At the end of the day they traded a guy with 2 career starts who had played precisely zero snaps this year and has 8 games left of contract control for a top 37 ish pick. That's pretty good.

And ultimately, my favorite part of the trade is that it means the Pats want Tom Fucking Brady to be their starting QB for the next 2+ years.
 

PedroKsBambino

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There is some reporting Pats were negotiating extension with Garoppolo and thus must have believed pre-season they might get there with him...and now do not believe it would have happened. It does seem like a miss that this occurred and that they traded Brissett for what feels like very little. We don't know their current assessment of Brissett when that happened, but I think the whole thing fits together best if they thought they had a real chance of keeping Jimmy G and weren't able to get there.

I don't think that's a giant miss, and certainly no ill-intent on anyone's part, but likely suboptimal wiht the benefit of hindsight.
 

DJnVa

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I was just coming here to post something similar. How does the Brissett trade make any sense if there was doubt about keeping Garoppolo?
Because they didn't think Brissett was someone they wanted? They can grab Hoyer (or someone like that) to hold the clipboard after the season, and then bring in someone else in the offseason like they've done numerous times before.
 

dcmissle

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http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/10/31/hue-jackson-puts-out-the-word-that-he-wanted-jimmy-garoppolo-in-cleveland/

Cleveland’s gonna Cleveland and Hue Jackson not pleased.

The “draft haul” was fake news. The Rams were always giving Goff another year (and good thing too). Same with Bortles in Jax (not a good thing). The 49ers were rewarded for their patience. JG was never going to Denver or Texas, or within the division, for obvious reasons.

I think the Pats played this well and got pretty much what they were always going to get.
 

joe dokes

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I was just coming here to post something similar. How does the Brissett trade make any sense if there was doubt about keeping Garoppolo?
It makes perfect sense if you don't think Brissett is any more likely to keep the team afloat than Zeke Bratkowski or whoever else is out there.
 

dbn

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Because if something happens with Brady they're not winning the Super Bowl. As currently constituted, most people don't feel SUPER confident about this roster winning the SB with Brady. Without him... hard pass. So if you can get a second/almost first round pick out of it and at the end of the day you're really no worse off... why not?
To add to this point, I, and many others I'm sure, thought during the off/pre-season that this team was loaded enough in talent to win a SB with JG at the helm, if it came to that. Now, not so much. Well, they still have a ton of talent, but the team isn't appearing to perform as well as I (we) thought they would.

The pro and con arguments on this trade are well known.

And the con I am about to mention is also not a particularly novel point.

But I still think it bears emphasis. The thing that worries me is the drop off in the quality of the safety net behind Tom in 2017. If Tom goes down for the year, they’re almost certainly toast. But if he goes down for, say, 2-3 games, I think Jimmy would have given them a much better chance to win games than Brian Hoyer or whoever else comes in.

The obvious reply is that they had many years of Rohan Davey types behind Tom. And won lots of SBs without a real net. But it always struck me as dangerous given how important the QB position is. Yeah, they won 11 games with Cassell, so anything is possible. But in the end, Jimmy — in a small sample — looked different in kind to me, and I hate to lose the level of insurance in 2017 that he provided.
To be fair, this is a valid counter to my above-posted comments.
 

Koufax

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Not sure that Kaepernick couldn't do as good a job as Jimmy.
 

bakahump

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"If Bill thought Jimmy G was Tom Brady 2.0, he wouldn't have traded him."

Theres our problem. NO ONE is ever going to be TB 2.0.
Ok that was hyperbole. Maybe in 50-100 years, assuming no global catastrophes and that the NFL doesnt go the path of Boxing, Someone will approach and probably break some of his records. They may be part Cybernetic (which will be perfectly legal then) but someone will eventually get there.

Best we can hope for Post TB12 is a Tom Brady "Vista" or go in a different direction and get a Tom Brady "Ubuntu".
 

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On the negative side, holding on to JG for 8 games may have cost them 3 years of control of Brissett. I don't think they trade Brissett if they had traded JG in the offseason. I guess if one rates Dorsett highly that mitigates things, and maybe they didn't see Brissett as QB of the future, but he would have been a young, solid, and cheap backup. Here's hoping they hit on a QB in the draft.
I've got to think they determined Brissett wasn't a viable QB of the future--and it's not like his performance this season is proving them wrong. I know they love his attitude, preparation and leadership but he just isn't an accurate passer (I also didn't see the game where he was sacked ten times but that's a bit of a red flag as well).

I wonder if we'll ever know the truth about whether they were offered a highish first round pick last year. As it stands 3.5 years of a number two Qb plus a few games plus a high second is a great return for a low second round pick.
 

wiffleballhero

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Consider me disappointed. Also lost in the focus on 2017 is what this says about the use of the 2014 draft pick.

As far as I can tell, the Pats flipped a 2014 second round pick into a 2018 second round pick, getting a couple good games, apparently some solid scout team QB work and a whole lot of handsome holding the clipboard. Maybe those two games were worth it, but I am not so sure.
 

wiffleballhero

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I know this point has been made a million times before, but do you consider paying for insurance a waste?
I don't consider paying for insurance a waste (well, when not a metaphor, I usually do when the bill comes, but I pay anyway). What I consider a waste is giving up that insurance and not getting much of anything in return after investing in the 'premium policy' of a second round pick.
 

BigSoxFan

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I don't consider paying for insurance a waste (well, when not a metaphor, I usually do when the bill comes, but I pay anyway). What I consider a waste is giving up that insurance and not getting much of anything in return.
A high second rounder is incredibly valuable.
 

scott bankheadcase

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So as a Niners fan that doesn't watch a ton of patriots games..... what are the Niners getting here? I've heard all the talk about Jimmy G, but haven't watched him play.

Educate me on why to be excited during a current 0-8 season.
 

DJnVa

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I don't consider paying for insurance a waste (well, when not a metaphor, I usually do when the bill comes, but I pay anyway). What I consider a waste is giving up that insurance and not getting much of anything in return after investing in the 'premium policy' of a second round pick.
So the pick wasn't worth it just for insurance but getting the same level of pick back isn't worth it either?
 

RedOctober3829

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I know this point has been made a million times before, but do you consider paying for insurance a waste?
The dropoff from Garappolo to Hoyer is not a big one. Let's start there. If you can cash in Jimmy G for a mid 30's draft pick you can either use the pick today to upgrade the current roster for another SB run or to draft a 1st round level player you do it. They were never going to pay 2 QBs starter money. There's no way BB would hamstring the cap by paying $50 million in cap hits to the QB position. So he traded the asset that is not contributing to the team currently for a larger asset. This trade is an easy case of quality asset management.
 

PedroKsBambino

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One has to assume they decided Brissett not the future---I think the small, but real, challenges are that whoever they bring in will be behind this year getting up to speed, and they will lose the benefit of the cost-controlled backup that they have largely enjoyed. Neither gigantic, just noting them.
 

scott bankheadcase

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To my eyes he was obviously a superior player to Matt Cassel. So theres that.
I understand this is somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but if no one in this thread can give me a better answer than this, then the whole thread (and the other one with people voting no) is ridiculous -- and I more fully understand the name of the forum. You got a very high 2nd round pick for the guy, who isn't playing a down.

On the other hand, he is very attractive.
 

Super Nomario

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Consider me disappointed. Also lost in the focus on 2017 is what this says about the use of the 2014 draft pick.

As far as I can tell, the Pats flipped a 2014 second round pick into a 2018 second round pick, getting a couple good games, apparently some solid scout team QB work and a whole lot of handsome holding the clipboard. Maybe those two games were worth it, but I am not so sure.
That 2018 pick is going to be 25+ spots higher than the 2014 pick. By Jimmy Johnson chart, it's almost double the value (#62 is 284.0, #34 is 560.0).
 

Jimbodandy

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I understand this is somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but if no one in this thread can give me a better answer than this, then the whole thread (and the other one with people voting no) is ridiculous -- and I more fully understand the name of the forum. You got a very high 2nd round pick for the guy, who isn't playing a down.

On the other hand, he is very attractive.
Ok. What you want to know...

Has all the physical tools in spades. Reported to have the makeup and decision-making tools as well, although that's largely based on performances that aren't regular season games obviously.

With a good team, he's a prototype NFL starting QB. He will struggle a bit without a legit offense around him. But he is mobile and can throw on the run. You'll like him.
 

dbn

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So as a Niners fan that doesn't watch a ton of patriots games..... what are the Niners getting here? I've heard all the talk about Jimmy G, but haven't watched him play.

Educate me on why to be excited during a current 0-8 season.
As someone who watches a ton of Patriots games... I'm not sure. He looks like he could be a very good NFL starting QB, but we're extrapolating from such a small sample that the uncertainties are huge.

I'd say the optimistic viewpoint is that he is highly thought of, has looked very good in the few real games he's played in, and has a few years of excellent NFL coaching, film work, etc. under his belt. By trading for him now the 49ers can get him some experience in their system during a lost season, and presumably extend him now or out-bid the rest of the league for him in the off-season, to start building for the future. They can also use the 1st-round draft pick that might otherwise have been used on a QB to help elsewhere on the roster, or trade down to a QB-needy team for more picks.

The pessimistic view is that he'll be a 26 year old that is nearly as unproven as a putative 22 year old rookie they could draft and, presumably, pay less money to. Also, the former Brady backups that looked good haven't fared well after departing for starting roles.

Time will tell.
 

InstaFace

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2. It will be awesome when Kaep not only sings the National Anthem, but also helps fold that big ass flag they use pregame after one quick Chat with BB.
that being Big Brother, of course. He loves Big Brother.

It's pretty simple, really. Unlike Montana/Young and Favre/Rodgers (and Manning/Luck for that matter), the Pats chose Brady over Garoppolo. Makes sense, given no sign of Brady slowing down and Jimmy G not the sure thing like Young and Rodgers.
I haven't seen much that would disqualify Garoppolo from becoming a Pro Bowl starting QB, if not the league MVP of Rodgers or Young. What we think of Aaron Rodgers now is largely driven from him being a starter, but what was the consensus on him in 2005, 2006, 2007? Favre was actually pretty good in 2007, too.

Tom Brady 2017 is better than Favre 2007 and Montana 1990, and likelier to continue that level of performance - I think that's the biggest distinction here. At the end of 1990, Steve Young had 10 GS for the 49ers and 19 for Tampa, so we had way more data on him (if they thought about data back then). But at the end of 2007, Rodgers had 59 career attempts. Garoppolo has 94 career attempts, mostly in those 6 quarters at the start of last year, including that game-winning drive against the Cardinals. How confident were the Packers in mid-2007? Just strikes me as a decision with incomplete information and plenty of variance.
 

bakahump

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I do consider paying for Flood insurance a waste when there hasnt been a flood in my area in a decade and I dont live near a body of water bigger then I could step over. Context and Risk matters. Smart minds can argue about acceptable risk.

I also consider it a waste if all that was next to said body of water was a Shack. Or if I was insuring a 78 toyota corolla (or a 2000 Escort). (and we are using this analogy only as it relates to personal property not if I wreck someone elses car).

Finally I would consider it a waste if I paid 5000 dollars a year to insure a Ferrari, but upon making a claim would only get replacement value enough to buy a Mustang. Smart minds can also disagree on how much this insurance actually did cost.

In both those cases I would say "C'est le vie" and would refuse to pay (lose value) for something that I would most likely never use and if I did would not make me whole.

The insurance argument can make sense in some cases but to me did not at the beginning of the season and especially when dealing with Brady (something irreplaceable), Never would.
 

scott bankheadcase

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Ok. What you want to know...

Has all the physical tools in spades. Reported to have the makeup and decision-making tools as well, although that's largely based on performances that aren't regular season games obviously.

With a good team, he's a prototype NFL starting QB. He will struggle a bit without a legit offense around him. But he is mobile and can throw on the run. You'll like him.
This is a good answer. I came to the thread and saw everyone lamenting trading him for a high draft pick and wanted to know what people are seeing that makes that seem like a low price to pay for a backup QB.

Understand only so much tape is there, but this is at least something to build on (Brian Hoyer was not, and C.J. Beathard, who I like overall, is fearless but definitely lacks arm strength and accuracy).
 

heavyde050

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that being Big Brother, of course. He loves Big Brother.



I haven't seen much that would disqualify Garoppolo from becoming a Pro Bowl starting QB, if not the league MVP of Rodgers or Young. What we think of Aaron Rodgers now is largely driven from him being a starter, but what was the consensus on him in 2005, 2006, 2007? Favre was actually pretty good in 2007, too.

Tom Brady 2017 is better than Favre 2007 and Montana 1990, and likelier to continue that level of performance - I think that's the biggest distinction here. At the end of 1990, Steve Young had 10 GS for the 49ers and 19 for Tampa, so we had way more data on him (if they thought about data back then). But at the end of 2007, Rodgers had 59 career attempts. Garoppolo has 94 career attempts, mostly in those 6 quarters at the start of last year, including that game-winning drive against the Cardinals. How confident were the Packers in mid-2007? Just strikes me as a decision with incomplete information and plenty of variance.
Is this trying to say that Jimmy G would be the MVP of the NFL?
If so, I would like to know how the jump was made from starting QB (definitely agree) to possible Pro Bowl QB (more likely than not in the right system) to NFL MVP (no idea).
I mean Brady only has two NFL MVP awards, but his backup has shown he can win one?
I guess I am just being dense as I don't see Jimmy as a future MVP.
 

InstaFace

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I understand this is somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but if no one in this thread can give me a better answer than this, then the whole thread (and the other one with people voting no) is ridiculous -- and I more fully understand the name of the forum. You got a very high 2nd round pick for the guy, who isn't playing a down.

On the other hand, he is very attractive.
We saw a lot of Garoppolo in the last 3 preseasons, plus of course the Arizona and Miami games last year. He's a confident and capable starter with good precision, good-but-not-great pocket awareness, and enough mobility to scramble and keep plays alive but not make you forget Randall Cunningham. He has the arm for deep balls, but there were a few times his throws could've used a bit more zip in tight coverage. Neither of his starts saw him throw an interception, but I think Miami was close once.

He's almost certainly a decent starter, and could well prove an upper-tier QB. I think everyone here would likely agree that his game has no achilles heel that we need to point out, other than his clavicle being unable to withstand getting hit by a freight train.
 

Reverend

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I don't consider paying for insurance a waste (well, when not a metaphor, I usually do when the bill comes, but I pay anyway). What I consider a waste is giving up that insurance and not getting much of anything in return after investing in the 'premium policy' of a second round pick.
He did QB the team to a couple of wins in a championship season.
 

InstaFace

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Is this trying to say that Jimmy G would be the MVP of the NFL?
If so, I would like to know how the jump was made from starting QB (definitely agree) to possible Pro Bowl QB (more likely than not in the right system) to NFL MVP (no idea).
I mean Brady only has two NFL MVP awards, but his backup has shown he can win one?
I guess I am just being dense as I don't see Jimmy as a future MVP.
"I haven't seen much that would disqualify Garoppolo from becoming a Pro Bowl starting QB, if not the league MVP of Rodgers or Young."

My phrasing "if not" was ambiguous. I meant it as "albeit probably not", rather than "and perhaps".

I think we agree. You can't project MVPs for anyone. With his 59 career attempts by the end of 2007, could anyone have predicted an MVP for Rodgers, or that he'd deserve 2 or 3?
 

dcmissle

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"We probably had the best quarterback situation in the league last 2 1/2 years. Just not sustainable. Explored every option possible." BB

BB surprisingly open about the Jimmy trade.
Yes. Every reason to credit Schefter’s reporting that they tried to sustain it, but JG had other things in mind.

Lol at suggestions that BB fucked up either when drafting him in the first place or not trading him in April.

Again — there is NO evidence Cleveland or anyone else offered the mythical “haul” for JG . None. It is entirely made up.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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The cycle of drafting a QB before we needed one, then watching Brady play out the rookie deal of the QB2 with no significant drop off is broken. But having a guy hold the clipboard is exactly that. We don't have the successor QB on our roster anymore. But we've got the next best thing which is a guy we're familiar with back in a system that he is very familiar with. Part of this is on Brady for not aging the way 100% of the QB's that came before him have. That's a good problem. Never in his entire career outside of 2001 have a I felt that there was a guy (Bledsoe) holding the clipboard that could take the field and the team would function just fine. If Brady goes down, SB52 is off my radar and I'll be focused on the draft.
 

heavyde050

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"I haven't seen much that would disqualify Garoppolo from becoming a Pro Bowl starting QB, if not the league MVP of Rodgers or Young."

My phrasing "if not" was ambiguous. I meant it as "albeit probably not", rather than "and perhaps".

I think we agree. You can't project MVPs for anyone. With his 59 career attempts by the end of 2007, could anyone have predicted an MVP for Rodgers, or that he'd deserve 2 or 3?
Got it. My bad on thinking you meant NFL MVP.
Jimmy has a lot of talent and his range of potential outcomes is probably somewhere between solid starter (top half of the league) to Pro Bowl QB.
It does stink that he wouldn't just wait until 2020 (from a Pats' fan perspective) but I can't blame the guy for wanting his shot.
Though he is in no way better than TB12 now (or probably over the next two years), he is definitely better than a bunch of the QBs that are starting for some of these teams.
 
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kelpapa

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I've got to think they determined Brissett wasn't a viable QB of the future--and it's not like his performance this season is proving them wrong. I know they love his attitude, preparation and leadership but he just isn't an accurate passer (I also didn't see the game where he was sacked ten times but that's a bit of a red flag as well).

I wonder if we'll ever know the truth about whether they were offered a highish first round pick last year. As it stands 3.5 years of a number two Qb plus a few games plus a high second is a great return for a low second round pick.
If you have ten minutes, watch this video on Jacksonville's defense.

Brissett's biggest issue is holding onto the ball too long. He seems to be concerned about throwing the ball into tight windows.
 

RetractableRoof

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I do consider paying for Flood insurance a waste when there hasnt been a flood in my area in a decade and I dont live near a body of water bigger then I could step over. Context and Risk matters. Smart minds can argue about acceptable risk.

I also consider it a waste if all that was next to said body of water was a Shack. Or if I was insuring a 78 toyota corolla (or a 2000 Escort). (and we are using this analogy only as it relates to personal property not if I wreck someone elses car).

Finally I would consider it a waste if I paid 5000 dollars a year to insure a Ferrari, but upon making a claim would only get replacement value enough to buy a Mustang. Smart minds can also disagree on how much this insurance actually did cost.

In both those cases I would say "C'est le vie" and would refuse to pay (lose value) for something that I would most likely never use and if I did would not make me whole.

The insurance argument can make sense in some cases but to me did not at the beginning of the season and especially when dealing with Brady (something irreplaceable), Never would.
Previously Jimmy G represented 1) the potential future 2) insurance. The media reporting indicates that Jimmy G couldn't be re-signed by NE given the current circumstances (Brady being upright and productive). That eliminates item 1.

Item 2: The insurance wasn't on Brady, it was on the season. A season that started with Super Bowl expectations and a loaded roster on both sides of the ball. The insurance was described by others: what happens to the Superbowl aspirations if Brady suffers an injury requiring someone to finish the season or play 10-12 games. They believed that they could still win the Superbowl with Jimmy G at QB given the other elements of the roster. That was the insurance they were paying for.

Come trade deadline, the parts and pieces of the team with Super Bowl aspirations have fallen off one by one - Julian, Dante, Mitchell, Hogan, Gillmore, etc. The new assessment is that if handed the starting role with the current team, Jimmy G would not have the skills to lead them to a Super Bowl win. Given he was no longer the potential future, that made him a movable asset.

I'm not sure where the approach by the team has been off.

Edit: Maybe I just missed your point, if so, mea culpa.
 
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twothousandone

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To add to this point, I, and many others I'm sure, thought during the off/pre-season that this team was loaded enough in talent to win a SB with JG at the helm, if it came to that.
If Brady goes down, SB52 is off my radar and I'll be focused on the draft.
The "insurance" Garappolo wasn't only to replace an injured Brady and lead the team to playoff victories. In fact, NE may not have seen it that way at all.
The insurance is also to replace an injured Brady in the regular season, lead the team to the playoffs, and turn it back over to Brady. With varying levels of regular season and playoff games possible.
At 6-2, with Brady to start their ninth game, and Hoyer (or something similar) they may have also decided that losing Brady for several games in the second half of the regular season still gets them to the playoffs. As Bakahump wrote, there's the cost of the insurance (in this case including opportunity cost) and there's the value of the insurance. If/when the opportunity cost of the insurance exceeds the value, get rid of it.
 

bakahump

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I think the big difference in what I thought THEN was:

If we lose Brady for the season....then the Season even with JG is over. I know we were loaded (at least we were supposed to be...). I just didnt see JG as leading this team to the SB. Hindsight is that who knew the AFC would be such a shitshow and JG might well have had us in contention or a #1 seed or a first round bye. (which i felt we needed). So he indeed may have been able to get us to a SB.

If we lost Brady for PART of the season (say 4 games) I felt that Brissett could have kept us afloat (I mean he has kept Indy "competitive" in half their games) I figured that the same loaded team that JG would inherit would allow Brissett to go 2-2 or 3-1 during a Brady 4 game injury.

I also included the potential gets from a 2017 Draft pick. Would an additional 2nd Round Defensive player have looked good this year? Speculation at the time was the compensation was significantly more. That would have looked good on an "Already Loaded" team.

Again all hindsight. I finally did came on board to keeping JG as insurance (IF he was kept as a LT replacement). But I cant fault BB for anything as he certainly has more info then us.

What I do take exception is that Insurance in any and all situations is simply a no brainer. (Irony is I type this as I talk to my Agent about an auto claim from Damage during the "Hurriween Hallocane").
 

The Needler

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He did QB the team to a couple of wins in a championship season.
This. That insurance paid out in a massive way. He came up huge in two wins that allowed the Patriots to play two home playoff games on the way to a Super Bowl win.
 

bankshot1

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Slightly off topic, but if the 49ers suck for the rest of the year, (and they probably will with or without JG) they were pretty much guaranteed either the #1 or #2 in the draft.

If they have the #1 or #2 do they still go for Darnold or Rosen?

Why did they trade for JG ?
 

Cellar-Door

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Slightly off topic, but if the 49ers suck for the rest of the year, (and they probably will with or without JG) they were pretty much guaranteed either the #1 or #2 in the draft.

If they have the #1 or #2 do they still go for Darnold or Rosen?

Why did they trade for JG ?
Because they like him more and they can draft better players either with the 1 or by trading down?
 

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Wait until the All-Pro JimmyG gets hurt in year 2021 and BB trades Brady to the Niners for his last hurrah in the NFL with his favorite childhood team.
 

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Aug 11, 2006
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Slightly off topic, but if the 49ers suck for the rest of the year, (and they probably will with or without JG) they were pretty much guaranteed either the #1 or #2 in the draft.

If they have the #1 or #2 do they still go for Darnold or Rosen?

Why did they trade for JG ?
SF is in a pretty good spot I think. They get 8 weeks of Jimmy G, then get to decide whether to cut their loses and draft a QB, or trade down and draft Jimmy a wall of an offensive line.