Joe Kelly...a solution for 5th starter?

TheCone

New Member
Apr 12, 2009
23
I know he needs to be stretched out, but is there any thinking of putting back into the rotation...I mean he cant be worse than Owens or Velasquez, or even Johnson for that matter.
 

Wallball Tingle

union soap
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
2,518
He always sucked in the rotation, and has mostly not sucked in the bullpen. His last start was on my birthday last year, and it was one of the most rotten gifts I ever received. He's been pretty darn good since then, one of the few recent "we fixed him" memories that I have, along with Andrew Miller. No way he moves back after the success he's had coupled with how utterly terrible he was as a starter.
 

DanoooME

above replacement level
SoSH Member
Mar 16, 2008
19,831
Henderson, NV
Ignoring the fact that it will likely take a month at Pawtucket to get him stretched out, who fills the hole in the pen? There are already enough issues with getting the starters to Kimbrel, and take one of the better options away? Sorry, that's just not viable.
 

TheCone

New Member
Apr 12, 2009
23
Well just wondering where at least 1 more (or 2 more) starters are coming from since we shouldnt trade any more top prospects....Brandon Workman? Otherwise you are really counting on Price to quickly bounce back & for Pomeranz to stop sucking & going only 5.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,504
JoKe - has any Red Sox player gone from savior to goat so many times in such a short period of time?

While yes, he would be a lot more valuable if he could be a league average pitcher, I think an entire season of getting good results would be beneficial to his development. After all, he still is only 28.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,244
Well just wondering where at least 1 more (or 2 more) starters are coming from since we shouldnt trade any more top prospects....Brandon Workman? Otherwise you are really counting on Price to quickly bounce back & for Pomeranz to stop sucking & going only 5.
If Pomeranz is their worst starter, going 5 wont be a problem. (sucking, of course, is always a problem.) I would guess that most teams' 5th best starter doesn't go more than 5 very often.
 

StevieNick8

New Member
May 22, 2017
9
I had debated the potential of Kelly as a #5, but the opportunity cost of taking him out as our 2nd best reliever at this moment would not be worth it.
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
I think that ship has sailed. Had always had hope that Kelly could find the control to go along with his "stuff" and be a solid bottom of the rotation guy, but it appears that he's best suited for this team in his current role. Perhaps more so when Smith and Thornburg are healthy. .
 

shaggydog2000

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 5, 2007
11,483
Joe Kelly is dead last on the Red Sox relief staff for K%-BB% at 4.9%. That is terrible. The only one worse on the entire Red Sox pitching staff this year is the dumpster fire by the name Kyle Kendrick who managed a 0% somehow. Joe Kelly is a mirage who should not be trusted. He can be used in a middle relief role where you can pull him quickly as needed, but there is no way in hell he is going to suddenly improve his low k rate or high walk rate by becoming a starter and make it through 6 innings without imploding. Small sample size luck is hiding how garbage his fundamentals have been so far this year.

Also, I have been too scarred by Joe Kelly as a starter previously to be rational at all about him. And I was a Buchholz apologist.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
Joe Kelly is a mirage who should not be trusted. He can be used in a middle relief role where you can pull him quickly as needed, but there is no way in hell he is going to suddenly improve his low k rate or high walk rate by becoming a starter and make it through 6 innings without imploding. Small sample size luck is hiding how garbage his fundamentals have been so far this year.
You're right, because it's too late for that--he's already improved them as a reliever.

Through April 23: 10.2 IP, 42 BF, 4.8 K%, 11.9 BB%
Since April 23: 10 IP, 40 BF, 27.5 K%, 10.0 BB%

BB rate still a little higher than you'd like, but for a guy with a >25% K rate and 60% GB rate, I'll take it.
 

jk333

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 26, 2009
4,323
Boston
You're right, because it's too late for that--he's already improved them as a reliever.

Through April 23: 10.2 IP, 42 BF, 4.8 K%, 11.9 BB%
Since April 23: 10 IP, 40 BF, 27.5 K%, 10.0 BB%

BB rate still a little higher than you'd like, but for a guy with a >25% K rate and 60% GB rate, I'll take it.
It's good for checking up on his performance this season but this early it's better to look at career splits and those are not good for making him a starter. This year he's striking out 5 per 9 and walking 4. That's terrible. He's 28, which is old, and not cost controlled going forward.

Also 2016 was a good case study - Kelly struck batters out 30% of the time as a starter the first time through the order; that's the same as he did as a reliever. But his second and third times through the order he struck out batters at rates of 16% and 19%. He's a better reliever and a poor starter. His career rates are pretty much the same.

To add to the negativity, based on 2016 he looks like a solid reliever. The type the Red Sox haven't had recently without trading for it. He hasn't been there this year, hopefully you're right and his performance of late is the real deal.
 

shaggydog2000

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 5, 2007
11,483
You're right, because it's too late for that--he's already improved them as a reliever.

Through April 23: 10.2 IP, 42 BF, 4.8 K%, 11.9 BB%
Since April 23: 10 IP, 40 BF, 27.5 K%, 10.0 BB%

BB rate still a little higher than you'd like, but for a guy with a >25% K rate and 60% GB rate, I'll take it.
Don't do this to me. Don't. Joe Kelly hopes lead to Joe Kelly dreams. And those have lead to nothing except Joe Kelly disappointments. He always looks good in short stints until he gets a bigger role, then he stabs me right in the little tiny optimistic nugget buried deep in my sarcastic pessimistic heart.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
It's good for checking up on his performance this season but this early it's better to look at career splits and those are not good for making him a starter.
I wasn't advocating making him a starter--I am firmly in the "if it (finally) ain't broke, this is a hell of a time to fix it" camp. I was just pointing out that the bad K rate is already starting to look like yesterday's news, probably a small sample oddity.
 

CoffeeNerdness

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 6, 2012
8,718
FWIW it seems like he's turned around his K rate versus some very K prone batters. (2017 K rates)

Adam Rosales: 32%
Jed Lowrie: 14.9%
Magneuris Sierra: 21.9% (21 yo rookie: 32 PA)
Souza: 30%
Miller: 27%
Santana: 26%
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,386
I wasn't advocating making him a starter--I am firmly in the "if it (finally) ain't broke, this is a hell of a time to fix it" camp. I was just pointing out that the bad K rate is already starting to look like yesterday's news, probably a small sample oddity.
He had an absolutely invisible K rate early on, which I just don't understand given his incredible stuff. But he's been much better lately.

- First 6 appearances: 10.0 ip, 1 k, 0.9 k/9
- Last 12 appearances: 10.2 ip, 12 k, 10.1 k/9
- Last 4 appearances: 3.2 ip, 6 k, 12.3 k/9

SSS, etc. But his last 10+ innings have been basically a complete turnaround from his first 10 innings, at least from a K perspective.