Keith Law's top 100

[moondog80]

He's done 100-21 so far:

Red Sox

98: Sam Travis

I think Travis could be a Mark Grace sort of player, hitting for average with good OBPs and 30-40 doubles a year, an average to above-average regular at a position where the Red Sox might shortly have a need

Former Red Sox

24: Manuel Margot

He’s at his best when he just tries to put the ball into the outfield, as he’s very unlikely to be a 10-plus homer guy, but could hit .280-.300 with some doubles and triples thanks to his speed, slugging in the low .400s in peak years.

Margot is ready now, and projects as a plus-10 runs or so defender in center. That, combined with his ability to put the ball in play, should make him an average regular now, with a little more than that to come when he reaches his physical peak.

21: Anderson Espinosa

Given how good his raw stuff is and that he throws strikes, it was a little surprising he didn’t have better results in low-A between Greenville and Fort Wayne, but again, he was just 18, so this was like a high school senior pitching in the Sally and Midwest Leagues.

Nevertheless, that kind of arsenal doesn’t often lead to a 4.50 ERA. That may be an indication that he’s not going to zip through the minors, and will need a full year or more at each level, but even that would have him in the Padres’ rotation at the age of 22, and the upside given all of the raw material here is at least that of a No. 2 starter with ace upside not out of the question, and minimal risk as a reliever, too

As a system (including Benintendi) he ranks the Red Sox 16th, top heavy with three great prospects but little depth.

Top 20 to comes out tomorrow, presumably Groome, Devers, Benintendi, Kopech, and Moncada will all be included.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18532658/law-methodology-top-100-prospects-2017

 

[Eddie Jurak]

16 seems like a strange place to rank a team with 4 top 20 prospects and 5 (just barely) in the top 100. Maybe he didn't rank Benintendi at all?

 

[moondog80]

16 seems like a strange place to rank a team with 4 top 20 prospects and 5 (just barely) in the top 100. Maybe he didn't rank Benintendi at all?

3 top 20, not 4. And that does include Benintendi.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

Pretty impressive that 7 of the top 25 originated in Sox system.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

He has Groome in the top 20? That is aggressive. Groome and Kopech leapfrogged Espinoza.

 

[moondog80]

He has Groome in the top 20? That is aggressive. Groome and Kopech leapfrogged Espinoza.

I assume so. He's not yet ranked, and Law mentions in the Sox write up that he's ahead of Travis, who is #98.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

That's wicked aggressive on Groome. It's great to see him thought so highly of, but I'd have been shocked to see him comfortably in the top 50 given the lack of professional experience. I was figuring on most of these lists Benintendi would be near the top (top 5), Devers would be somewhere around 15, maybe 20 at worst. Groome would be in the 50-75 range and maybe Travis would sneak in the back end. Of course, Law was really high on Devers last year even when others were down on him (had him at 7 overall in July) so I'm guessing he'll still be in the top 10 here..

 

[moondog80]

MLB has Groome as the second bast left handed starter, so Law is not the only one bullish on him.

They also have Devers as the best 3B, Benintendi best for OF, Travis 10th for 1B, Moncada 1st for 2B, Kopech 4th and Espinosa 6th for RHP, and Margot 8th for OF.

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=lhp

 

[Eddie Jurak]

3 top 20, not 4. And that does include Benintendi.

So Kopech doesn't make his top 100?

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

So Kopech doesn't make his top 100?

Kopech doesn't live here anymore.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Kopech doesn't live here anymore.

Jesus I am getting old.

 

[brandonchristensen]

Kopech doesn't live here anymore.

Neither does Moncada or Espinoza but they got featured here.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Neither does Moncada or Espinoza but they got featured here.

Yes, but Groome, Devers and Benintendi appear to be top 20. That's what the 3 or 4 issue was about.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

That's wicked aggressive on Groome. It's great to see him thought so highly of, but I'd have been shocked to see him comfortably in the top 50 given the lack of professional experience. I was figuring on most of these lists Benintendi would be near the top (top 5), Devers would be somewhere around 15, maybe 20 at worst. Groome would be in the 50-75 range and maybe Travis would sneak in the back end. Of course, Law was really high on Devers last year even when others were down on him (had him at 7 overall in July) so I'm guessing he'll still be in the top 10 here..

Law was extremely bullish on Groome. I'm mildly surprised he's apparently top 20 but I'm not shocked in the least that he is better than top 50. He routinely has immediate draftees top 30 and he considered Groome a candidate for 1-1.

 

[TimScribble]

Top 20 out. I don't have access.

 

[moondog80]

20: Jason Groome

Groome was the No. 2 player on my board in the 2016 draft, but he slipped to the Red Sox at the 12th pick overall because of concerns about his signability and off-field questions, which allowed Boston to take a lefty with one of the best curveballs I’ve ever seen from a high schooler.

His arm works well, and he has the size to work downhill with his fastball, one of the aspects lacking from his game at the moment. He’s still relatively unpolished, and probably four years away from the majors, so there’s a higher flameout or injury risk -- maybe 30 percent or so -- than there is for other arms in this region of the rankings. I’ll still take a big lefty with an out pitch curveball and potential for a grade 55 or better fastball any day of the week.

11: Rafael Devers

He's a true third baseman with an exceptional ability to hit and huge raw power he’s just beginning to display in games. Devers’ main tool is his bat -- he has great hand-eye coordination, and the ball comes off his bat exceptionally well to the point where power should come easily to him without having to change his approach or swing.

Devers is big for third base, but he's agile enough for the position with good hands and a plus arm. Moving Moncada clears a path for Devers to take over at the hot corner in Fenway sometime in late 2018. Even average defense at third would make him an All-Star given how much I expect him to hit for power.

1: Andrew Benintendi

He has more power to his pull side but more than enough to drive the ball out to the left-field wall. His plate discipline might be even more impressive than how hard he makes contact; he walked more than he struck out across his brief minor league tenure, and then saw just over four pitches per plate appearance in the majors last fall. Benintendi showed enough patience that manager John Farrell has said he might make the outfielder his No. 2 hitter.

Although Benintendi played more left field in the majors, he’s capable of playing above-average defense in center if need be, thanks to above-average running speed and good instincts. And if he was a centerfielder with just average defense, he’d still be an All-Star thanks to the potential for him to post OBPs near .400 with 25-plus homers and value on the bases. And if the Sox end up putting him in center, Benintendi would be a potential six-win player. That’s incredible value for the seventh overall pick, and it makes Benintendi the best prospect in baseball for 2017

Former Sox -- big surprise is Kopech ahead of Moncada

17: Yoan Moncada

He destroyed High-A to start 2016, then hit well in Double-A (.277/.379/.531) but struck out 31 percent of the time, and then looked lost with a late promotion to the big leagues. However, Moncada wraps his bat and can’t get to stuff inside to backspin it, getting on top of those pitches or missing them entirely. When he reached the majors, it was as if he’d never seen a breaking ball in his life. The latter can change with development time, but the former is a more significant mechanical question that reduces his likely ceiling for me. The White Sox, having just acquired him, have no need to rush him and should let him spend the year in Triple-A. I think he’s going to be a good big leaguer, maybe an above-average one, but there’s also a pretty high risk involved here, maybe 30 percent, that he never lives up to his physical tools.

7: Michael Kopech

Kopech has modeled himself after Noah Syndergaard, another huge Texas right-hander who came out of high school with a fastball, a good delivery and little else, and the results so far are very promising. Other than a slight cutoff in his landing, Kopech’s delivery works and should allow him to develop average or better command over time. He just needs to pitch, both to build up durability and work on fastball command and getting those two off-speed pitches to be regularly above average. His upside is that of a No. 1 starter who has two or three truly plus pitches and logs 200 innings a year.

 

[heavyde050]

20: Jason Groome


11: Rafael Devers


1: Andrew Benintendi



Former Sox -- big surprise is Kopech ahead of Moncada

17: Yoan Moncada


7: Michael Kopech

I hope Michael Kopech has a good career, and I realize you have to give up talent to get talent. But giving up a Thor-like pitcher will not be fun to look back on (unless Sale brings a WS title).

 

[Hendu for Kutch]

I hope Michael Kopech has a good career, and I realize you have to give up talent to get talent. But giving up a Thor-like pitcher will not be fun to look back on (unless Sale brings a WS title).

Trading him for a guy like Sale is a worthwhile decision though, really no matter how good he ends up being. Even if Sale flames out, his pedigree and success is established and there would have been no reason to expect that.

Trading him for someone like RA Dickey though? That would hurt.

 

[heavyde050]

Trading him for a guy like Sale is a worthwhile decision though, really no matter how good he ends up being. Even if Sale flames out, his pedigree and success is established and there would have been no reason to expect that.

Trading him for someone like RA Dickey though? That would hurt.

Agreed. It is still a trade they pretty much would make every time.

 

[LondonSox]

Espinoza is the trade I hated then and hate more now Pomeranz is a question mark and depth. Kopech has huge flame out potential, and given Law has been sceptical he can start I'm surprised by that rating.
There's a growing narrative Moncada has a problem with strikeouts, but that's a pretty surprisingly low ranking.

 

[simplicio]

I think Law saw Kopech in the AFL or something and loved him- he was definitely more skeptical earlier last year.

 

[soxhop411]

I assume so. He's not yet ranked, and Law mentions in the Sox write up that he's ahead of Travis, who is #98.

Which sox write up?

 

[Plympton91]

I hope Michael Kopech has a good career, and I realize you have to give up talent to get talent. But giving up a Thor-like pitcher will not be fun to look back on (unless Sale brings a WS title).

Two.

Agreed. It is still a trade they pretty much would make every time.

I don't think that's really accurate. Sale is a "final piece of the puzzle" guy, and we have that puzzle to complete at a time when the Yankees are just starting a rebuild and only the Indians have a comparable team in the AL.

Plus, the more they talk about maximizing the window, the more my mind hears a subtext of "And then Henry cashes out his profits while the value is at a local maximum."

They made this trade this year. I don't think they'd make the same decision if any of a number of factors were different. If I were going to own this team for 10 more years, I'd make a different decision, if the Yankees were at the same point in the cycle as me, I'd make a different decision, or if I didn't have 4 all stars who would either be FA or exiting their prime 3 years from now. I'd make a different decision.

 

[heavyde050]

Two.



I don't think that's really accurate. Sale is a "final piece of the puzzle" guy, and we have that puzzle to complete at a time when the Yankees are just starting a rebuild and only the Indians have a comparable team in the AL.

Plus, the more they talk about maximizing the window, the more my mind hears a subtext of "And then Henry cashes out his profits while the value is at a local maximum."

They made this trade this year. I don't think they'd make the same decision if any of a number of factors were different. If I were going to own this team for 10 more years, I'd make a different decision, if the Yankees were at the same point in the cycle as me, I'd make a different decision, or if I didn't have 4 all stars who would either be FA or exiting their prime 3 years from now. I'd make a different decision.

You are correct. I wasn't clear in my response. I meant they would probably make that trade most times given the situation.
If the Sox finished in last place or if they didn't have the current roster construction the trade wouldn't have made sense.

 

[Spelunker]

Two.



I don't think that's really accurate. Sale is a "final piece of the puzzle" guy, and we have that puzzle to complete at a time when the Yankees are just starting a rebuild and only the Indians have a comparable team in the AL.

Plus, the more they talk about maximizing the window, the more my mind hears a subtext of "And then Henry cashes out his profits while the value is at a local maximum."

They made this trade this year. I don't think they'd make the same decision if any of a number of factors were different. If I were going to own this team for 10 more years, I'd make a different decision, if the Yankees were at the same point in the cycle as me, I'd make a different decision, or if I didn't have 4 all stars who would either be FA or exiting their prime 3 years from now. I'd make a different decision.

We're in double digits of you throwing this out there as a potentiality. So you have any real basis for this constant spit-balling, or is this just a "the market has to go down sometime so I'll eventually crow about being right the one time it happens" approach?

 

[Plympton91]

We're in double digits of you throwing this out there as a potentiality. So you have any real basis for this constant spit-balling, or is this just a "the market has to go down sometime so I'll eventually crow about being right the one time it happens" approach?

I am extrapolating from the steady decline in the number of cable subscribers as people move more and more to the other TV platforms available. Another data point from which to extrapolate is the increased pushback by cable companies themselves against deals signed by FOX and Comcast regional networks, as we've seen from the Dodgers and Astros messes.

It may be a decade or more, but I could definitely see a business shark like Henry foreseeing that and getting out ahead of it. He's also in his late 60s and the type who likes to move on to the "next great thing." He's been a fantastic owner here; but nothing requires him to be owner for life.

 

[jimbobim]

Law has been pretty consistent about not getting caught up in Moncada's tools from the jump. He's always preferred Benintendi when comparing the two and adored Devers.

I'll give him credit for acknowledging that Espinoza's stuff hasn't translated like it should. I was also surprised to hear him say Moncada has a wrap in his swing that makes a hole that will be tough to close.

All in all I'm ecstatic about Benintendi Betts and JBJ for next year. I also think Swihart could be an X factor though what they will do with him positionally is an open question.

If you look at the rankings the Sox come in right amongst Cubs Rangers and Indians I believe. All teams that made the objectively correct choice to supplement their MLB teams win totals from their impressive farms.

Finally if JH does sell in three years the Red Sox will sell for a gold mine. It's a printing press of cash and I think it's safe to say a winning bidder wouldn't turn them into the Marlins.

 

[keninten]

Law has been pretty consistent about not getting caught up in Moncada's tools from the jump. He's always preferred Benintendi when comparing the two and adored Devers.

I'll give him credit for acknowledging that Espinoza's stuff hasn't translated like it should. I was also surprised to hear him say Moncada has a wrap in his swing that makes a hole that will be tough to close.

All in all I'm ecstatic about Benintendi Betts and JBJ for next year. I also think Swihart could be an X factor though what they will do with him positionally is an open question.

If you look at the rankings the Sox come in right amongst Cubs Rangers and Indians I believe. All teams that made the objectively correct choice to supplement their MLB teams win totals from their impressive farms.

Finally if JH does sell in three years the Red Sox will sell for a gold mine. It's a printing press of cash and I think it's safe to say a winning bidder wouldn't turn them into the Marlins.

Not sure what you are saying here. I`ve thought it`s been said he`s staying at catcher. Maybe 3rd if lots and lots of guys fail there. Maybe LF again if lots of guys fail there.

 

[jon abbey]

Not sure how much I should post since it's Insider, but here is Law's top 10 list of Sox prospects:

1. Andrew Benintendi, OF (Ranked No. 1)

2. Rafael Devers, 3B (Ranked No. 11)

3. Jason Groome, LHP (Ranked No. 20)

4. Sam Travis, 1B (Ranked No. 98)

5. Travis Lakins, RHP

6. Ronny Raudes, RHP

7. Bobby Dalbec, 3B

8. C.J. Chatham, SS

9. Nick Longhi, 1B

10. Brian Johnson, LHP

Also he has descriptions on each of those guys and a bunch more.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Travis Lakins at 5? What? Why?

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Because he considers him the fifth best prospect in the Red Sox system.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Why though? Every other time I hear Lakins name it's in the same breath as Trey Ball. I guess after 1-4, there is such a huge drop off in talent that the difference doesn't matter much and comes down to personal preference but I haven't even seen Lakins on any Redsox top 10 lists, nevermind at 5.

 

[jon abbey]

PP doesn't agree, but I think Law prides himself on his unique prospect takes. Either he is right and everyone is impressed later on or he is wrong and no one remembers.

(I have no opinion about this specific perspective, that is a general Law comment)

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Yeah, I was just wondering if there was something in particular he sees in Lakins to rank him so high.

 

[jon abbey]

Lakins was actually 10th on his BOS list in 2016, here is his writeup from this year:

"Travis Lakins was my sleeper pick for the Red Sox last year, but was pitching hurt for at least part of the season and was finally shut down at the end of July with an olecranon injury; he’s expected to be fine for camp. He touches 96 mph but pitches more comfortably at 92-93 with a potentially plus curveball and an athletic delivery."

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Thanks. At least he's consistent. With the farm being traded away Lakins moves up to 5th by default. Maybe he doesn't ding him for the poor season due to injury either.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

PP doesn't agree, but I think Law prides himself on his unique prospect takes. Either he is right and everyone is impressed later on or he is wrong and no one remembers.

(I have no opinion about this specific perspective, that is a general Law comment)

I know you and I don't agree on Law often, but I don't see how this assessment differs from one you could apply to any prospect guy in the business. They're all right or wrong all the time and I've seen Law eat crow many times, to varying degrees. Disliking Law on a hit/miss ratio is like hating the weather man. (I'm also assuming there's some yankee bias with you, despite him being correct on most of your guys since he's been doing this)

The reason I defer to him over the others is because he's very open that it's not purely based on his assessment. He confers with Callis and Sickels and other guys and talks to scouts around the country. He doesn't just sit and watch video or base on guys he sees in person and rank on his own particular take.

He's got an attitude (which I personally appreciate, but I can see why some don't) and he's far more accessible and present, being on espn, than a lot of the other guys so I get why people don't like him when he doesn't hump their prospects. His chats are littered with 'why do you hate our team??' type questions. It's a lot easier to give him crap because you don't need a BP subscription and he's out there every week answering fans.

But the larger points - about Law or any of these guys - are really twofold and at the risk of belaboring points I've made before, I'll reiterate them.

1) once you get outside a certain number, the variability on rankings starts growing. For lack of a better reference look at something like an NFL draft choice value chart. The increments of value between slots starts getting smaller and smaller really quickly the further you go down. The difference between the #50 prospect and the #80 prospect is A) not as much as it appears and B) extremely variable and subjective. Extrapolating that out to ranking 30 teams entire systems, the difference between ranking somebody #5 or #7 (or whatever) is an extremely stupid thing to get worked up over.

2) Unless y'all are going to all these minor league games and have a frame of reference, these rankings - and again, especially this low - aren't anything you can really comment on with any kind of backing or with any kind of lack of bias. You can't scout a box score, a radar gun reading or a stat line. Which ties back to my original point that I appreciate law because he spends his time either seeing them or talking to *multiple people who have seen them.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

After the end of 2011, MLB ranked Bryce Brentz as our 2nd best prospect ahead of Swihart and Xander. The fact I still remember that tells you how awful it was. Law rating Lakins 5th is something I'll forget in a week.

Anyone who makes predictions is going to be wrong all the time but I find Law to be one of the better ones and even the stuff he was wrong about is at least defensible. Unlike Brentz being 2nd.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Dude, Xander was an 18 yo lottery ticket and Swihart had played like six games. Brentz was a college guy who hit 30'HRs that year. They were wrong but it's how the system works.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Blake and Xander weren't even on the top 10 list. An 18 year old SS who just hit 16 HRs in 72 games isn't even a top 10 prospect. Swihart wasn't either. Felix Doubront was 4th. Stolmy f'n Pomental was 8th.

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2011/index.jsp?c_id=bos

Sorry, this list was absolute dogshit the day it was made.

Edit: Baseball American ranked Xander the 58th best prospect in all of baseball after 2011, he didn't crack the Redsox top 10 list from MLB.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Which should show you the volatility of these lists, if nothing else.

And in no way am I defending MLB.com. They suck.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Some more volatile than the rest. That list was an outlier and mocked at the time too. Funny thing is, 8/10 players on that list made the majors.

BA's list 9/10 went on to make the majors. The one exception was Brandon Jacobs. BA's top 10 list has Xander, Swihart, Barnes, JBJ and Garin like most other publications did. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2012/2612769.html

They had 3 players in common on the 10 player list. MLB's list had no consistency either as they completed ignored Ryan Lavarnway's 32 HR season in the upper minors at the C position.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I honestly don't even know if we agreeing or disagreeing at this point.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Travis Lakins at 5? What? Why?

So they can do a new version of this picture in ST this year:

 

[gammoseditor]

Blake and Xander weren't even on the top 10 list. An 18 year old SS who just hit 16 HRs in 72 games isn't even a top 10 prospect. Swihart wasn't either. Felix Doubront was 4th. Stolmy f'n Pomental was 8th.

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2011/index.jsp?c_id=bos

Sorry, this list was absolute dogshit the day it was made.

Edit: Baseball American ranked Xander the 58th best prospect in all of baseball after 2011, he didn't crack the Redsox top 10 list from MLB.

MLB wasn't putting much effort into prospect coverage back then. Jim Callis is there now and does an excellent job.

On Keith Law, I don't see how it's possible that he ranks guys higher just to be different. He ranks lists for every team which means he has to consider roughly 900 players. Doing that mostly on your own is a huge task. Taking time to compare your output to others after all that work just seems unlikely.