Knicks/Raptors trade. OG for RJ/Quickley

[lovegtm]

I think they are doing a modified "blow it up"...which could end up blowing up in their faces. Ujiri clearly thinks these 20-24 year olds are more valuable than mid to late 1sts, which is probably true. The issue is that the players Ujiri is getting aren't on rookie scale contracts, which could lead to a very expensive team in the middle of the pack doing nothing.

Will be interesting to see what he does with Siakam. On the outside looking in, it seems like they have to move him but Ujiri has been running counter to public opinion for a bit now

Guys on rookie scale contracts being big contributors on champions is rarely a thing. Denver had just one of them last year (Christian Braun), and he was the 7th/8th man. Similar for GSW, Milwaukee.

The Raps had Siakam/OG/FVV; they're the exception that proves the rule.

The Celtics are the favorites right now, and you have to go down to their 7th/8th guys to find those players. Everyone else is vets getting paid.

As long as your core guys are on contracts for 15-25% of the cap, you can absolutely have 3-4 of them without it being a big deal. Now, to be clear, they better be your actual core guys, or else you're the Hawks.

 

[benhogan]

Since TOR apparently doesn't want to blow it up, I think IQ is as good as they were going to get for OG so maybe not trading him for draft picks worked out well for a change.

From TOR's perspective, I guess Ujiri is finding out that it's all well and good to draft athletic, long, 6'7+" guys but unless you happen to draft a guy like Tatum, you can't play all of them at once and hope to function in the NBA. I mean yes the NBA is getting to be "positionless" but teams still need players to organize the offensive sets and shoot the ball.

If IQ signs his 4/$110M extension and then takes a step with starter minutes then the trade is a win for TOR. The trade looks good for NYK so maybe one of the rare trades that help both teams.

I see Win/Win also.

Knicks needed that WING defender to contend. OG looked like that guy against the big, bad Wolves. He handled AntMan, until he fouled out.

I've been massively bullish on Quickley since he was winning SEC Player of the Year. He was my Celtic draft binky.
He could be the next Maxey 2.0, if given a starring role (after Siakam is traded to the Warriors).
RJ Barrett may also put it together, so that's not a bad dice roll.
Plus they get the first pick in the 2nd round which now offers super cheap contract control.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

If you really like Quickley, then "expensive" doesn't matter. You pay $21-25M for your lead guard, and are positioned to add one more big piece around Barnes after that.

I don't expect Quickley's agent to settle for an extension when the upside is so much higher. This is possibly one of the reasons why NY decided to move on as well. Not too dissimilar to White.

 

[the moops]

I don't expect Quickley's agent to settle for an extension when the upside is so much higher. This is possibly one of the reasons why NY decided to move on as well. Not too dissimilar to White.

Quickley is restricted though, so it is a way different animal than White

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

JJ and Legler were talking on the most recent Old Man and the Three about whether a team having a "defensive identity" is a thing anymore in a way that really moves the needle. They basically argued that no team can really "impose their will" on other teams in the playoffs, since the offensive players are just so good now with catch-and-shoot threes by just about every big off of drive and kick and off-the-dribble threes by guards from the logo.

But OG added to the Knicks really makes it seem like they're trying to go that way. If you don't have one of those big-time shooters (Trae/Curry/Halliburton/etc.) who can extend the defense, it's going to be a rock fight in the paint and you better have some guys who don't mind mixing it up. Knicks-Heat rematch could be a real 90s throwback.

 

[Strike4]

It's funny how everyone mentally pairs Quickley and Maxey. It just works!

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Quickley is restricted though, so it is a way different animal than White

Very true

 

[jon abbey]

It's funny how everyone mentally pairs Quickley and Maxey. It just works!

I mean, they were literally teammates in college and they look very similar on the court.

 

[benhogan]

Quickley is restricted though, so it is a way different animal than White

They are at completely different stages of their career. White has made real NBA $$$ & DW is better
BUT

1. Summer 2024, White will have 1 year left ($19.5MM) on his deal before going to UFA in the summer of 2025

2. Summer 2024, Quickley will have the option to accept a 1yr QO (~$6MM) before going to UFA in the summer of 2025

I expect Quickley to go to salary-depressing RFA even though he could "bet" on himself & get a much better payday in UFA in 1yr.

I also expect White to extend at the most he can this Summer.

The vast majority of NBA players (& their agents) take the bag unless they are Dennis Schroeder, Nerlens Noel, or Demarcus Cousins.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I expect Quickley to go to salary-depressing RFA even though he could "bet" on himself & get a much better payday in UFA in 1yr.

I have to think TOR is going to re-sign IQ as soon as they are able. Quickley was apparently asking NYK for a 9 figure extension (4/$100M?) and an unhappy Quickley means that he might go ahead and sign the one-year offer and walk out of TOR, which would be really bad from an asset point of view. So maybe Quickley does get the 5/$135 that he's looking for.

Same thing with OG, although Jake Fisher from Yahoo Sports is reporting that OG might be willing to give NYK a small discount so maybe his deal starts at $40M rather than the $42.6M that apparently is his max. https://www.spotrac.com/news/knicks-acquire-og-anunoby-for-rj-barrett-immanuel-quickley-2106/

For us Cs fans - I just saw that NYK and BOS apparently talked about a Quickley for Smart trade over the off-season: https://dailyknicks.com/posts/grizzlies-saved-knicks-fans-more-painful-immanuel-quickley-trade. That would have been interesting but I'm glad we got KP!

 

[slamminsammya]

JJ and Legler were talking on the most recent Old Man and the Three about whether a team having a "defensive identity" is a thing anymore in a way that really moves the needle. They basically argued that no team can really "impose their will" on other teams in the playoffs, since the offensive players are just so good now with catch-and-shoot threes by just about every big off of drive and kick and off-the-dribble threes by guards from the logo.

But OG added to the Knicks really makes it seem like they're trying to go that way. If you don't have one of those big-time shooters (Trae/Curry/Halliburton/etc.) who can extend the defense, it's going to be a rock fight in the paint and you better have some guys who don't mind mixing it up. Knicks-Heat rematch could be a real 90s throwback.

they got into this distinction implicitly but they didn't really address the difference between defense overall getting less effective versus differentiation among teams decreasing. the latter is really the important thing and a cursory glance to me shows the spread between the best and worst defensive teams is similar to what it was pre-offensive explosion.

 

[benhogan]

I have to think TOR is going to re-sign IQ as soon as they are able. Quickley was apparently asking NYK for a 9 figure extension (4/$100M?) and an unhappy Quickley means that he might go ahead and sign the one-year offer and walk out of TOR, which would be really bad from an asset point of view. So maybe Quickley does get the 5/$135 that he's looking for.

Same thing with OG, although Jake Fisher from Yahoo Sports is reporting that OG might be willing to give NYK a small discount so maybe his deal starts at $40M rather than the $42.6M that apparently is his max. https://www.spotrac.com/news/knicks-acquire-og-anunoby-for-rj-barrett-immanuel-quickley-2106/

For us Cs fans - I just saw that NYK and BOS apparently talked about a Quickley for Smart trade over the off-season: https://dailyknicks.com/posts/grizzlies-saved-knicks-fans-more-painful-immanuel-quickley-trade. That would have been interesting but I'm glad we got KP!

Ha Ha. Memphis saved the day from the NYK trading for Marcus Smart.

Some would have melted down around here if Brad traded Captain Intangibles for IQ. I honestly think Brad decided long before the KP deal (and the Brogdon rescinded trade) that they were moving Smart for assets. BUT have no way to prove it.

 

[lovegtm]

Very true

Yeah, because he's restricted, I expect there was decent communication between his agent and Toronto as to extension terms.

 

[the moops]

an unhappy Quickley means that he might go ahead and sign the one-year offer and walk out of TOR, which would be really bad from an asset point of view. So maybe Quickley does get the 5/$135 that he's looking for.

I doubt he takes the QO. Are there any recent examples of players doing this that resulted in them getting a huge payday once they reached unrestricted free agency?

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I doubt he takes the QO. Are there any recent examples of players doing this that resulted in them getting a huge payday once they reached unrestricted free agency?

I agree that it isn't likely that IQ takes the qualifying offer unless he feels that TOR is unreasonably low-balling him.

As for your question, it used to happen a lot more (Greg Monroe, if I am reading correctly, took the qualifying offer and then signed a max 3/$50M but that was 2015). Last really good player to take the QO I can find is Miles Bridges but that's extenuating circumstances. I can't find any other recent examples; but your point is taken.

 

[lovegtm]

Porzingis may have credibly threatened to do it to the Knicks before RFA, but I have yet to see really clear reporting about that situation.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

they got into this distinction implicitly but they didn't really address the difference between defense overall getting less effective versus differentiation among teams decreasing. the latter is really the important thing and a cursory glance to me shows the spread between the best and worst defensive teams is similar to what it was pre-offensive explosion.

Right. If everyone's throwing up 130 all the time, it might just be a matter of readjusting what "imposing your will" looks like.

Just looking at the Eastern Conference:

2023: Low (Celtics) 110.3; Median (Raptors) 115.2; High (Wizards) 126.2
2019: Low (Pacers) 104.7; Median (Hornets) 111.8; High (Hawks) 119.4
2015: Low (Pacers) 97; Median (Cavs) 98.7; High (Magic) 101.4

So, spread is 15.9 PPG allowed in 2023, 14.7 PPG allowed in 2019; but just 4.4 PPG allowed in 2015! Bonkers. (Although, in the west in 2015, the spread is 11.6)

I think if anything you can argue that there is MORE of a likelihood that a team has a true defensive identity now, as just about everyone was able to "impose their will" back in 2015. That's just quick and dirty, but pretty interesting.

 

[slamminsammya]

Right. If everyone's throwing up 130 all the time, it might just be a matter of readjusting what "imposing your will" looks like.

Just looking at the Eastern Conference:

2023: Low (Celtics) 110.3; Median (Raptors) 115.2; High (Wizards) 126.2
2019: Low (Pacers) 104.7; Median (Hornets) 111.8; High (Hawks) 119.4
2015: Low (Pacers) 97; Median (Cavs) 98.7; High (Magic) 101.4

So, spread is 15.9 PPG allowed in 2023, 14.7 PPG allowed in 2019; but just 4.4 PPG allowed in 2015! Bonkers. (Although, in the west in 2015, the spread is 11.6)

I think if anything you can argue that there is MORE of a likelihood that a team has a true defensive identity now, as just about everyone was able to "impose their will" back in 2015. That's just quick and dirty, but pretty interesting.

don't look at PPG, look at defensive efficiency. I poked my head at a few and it seems the spread from max to min is smaller than it was in the 90s, but I'd wanna see the standard deviation to get a better picture.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

don't look at PPG, look at defensive efficiency. I poked my head at a few and it seems the spread from max to min is smaller than it was in the 90s, but I'd wanna see the standard deviation to get a better picture.

Good idea. By Drtg, league-wide:

2015: Low (Warriors) 101.4; Median (Thunder) 105.5; High (Wolves) 112.2
2019: Low (Bucks) 105.2; Median (Sixers) 110; High (Cavs) 117.6
2023: Low (Wolves) 108.6; Median (Bulls) 115.5; High (Hornets) 122.2

Spreads are 10.8, 12.4, 13.6 - more evidence that defense is more of a differentiator now. Even the low to median is wider now than before.

 

[slamminsammya]

Good idea. By Drtg, league-wide:

2015: Low (Warriors) 101.4; Median (Thunder) 105.5; High (Wolves) 112.2
2019: Low (Bucks) 105.2; Median (Sixers) 110; High (Cavs) 117.6
2023: Low (Wolves) 108.6; Median (Bulls) 115.5; High (Hornets) 122.2

Spreads are 10.8, 12.4, 13.6 - more evidence that defense is more of a differentiator now. Even the low to median is wider now than before.

Yeah, although it's a little unfair to compare full season to 30 games in. variance will always be larger on a smaller sample of games. nevertheless I am not convinced by the reddick legler point that defense isn't such a thing anymore.

 

[lovegtm]

It's also obvious watching games now that having an elite defense is a thing, and is a real difference maker.

Yeah, guys are ridiculous shotmakers, and they're gonna hit more than you'd like against great D, but if you're getting quality 3s and rim looks on the other end, your runs get bigger in a hurry, and you get these blowouts against good teams that the Celtics put up often.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

It's also obvious watching games now that having an elite defense is a thing, and is a real difference maker.

Yeah, guys are ridiculous shotmakers, and they're gonna hit more than you'd like against great D, but if you're getting quality 3s and rim looks on the other end, your runs get bigger in a hurry, and you get these blowouts against good teams that the Celtics put up often.

Are Redick and Legler saying that defense isn't as important bc players are better shotmakers?

If so, I couldn't disagree more. You need to "impose your will" more today imo as you could get away with players not punishing you two decades ago. Today if you don't compete defensively there are multiple teams who can drop 150 on you. That wasn't the case 20 years ago. You have to compete and be the difference on that end of the floor more now than ever imo BECAUSE players are such great shotmakers.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Are Redick and Legler saying that defense isn't as important bc players are better shotmakers?

If so, I couldn't disagree more. You need to "impose your will" more today imo as you could get away with players not punishing you two decades ago. Today if you don't compete defensively there are multiple teams who can drop 150 on you. That wasn't the case 20 years ago. You have to compete and be the difference on that end of the floor more now than ever imo BECAUSE players are such great shotmakers.

You can listen to it yourself below.

I don't think JJ/Legler aren't saying that defense isn't important - in fact they say that every team has to have a lineup that can get stops for stretches in a game. But they are riffing on the old adage, "Defense wins Championships" and they conclude that in today's NBA, you have to have an elite offense to win a championship.

Maybe the reason the Cs have fell short in the past.

View: https://youtu.be/uppGsmWm3xQ?t=2037

 

[HomeRunBaker]

You can listen to it yourself below.

I don't think JJ/Legler aren't saying that defense isn't important - in fact they say that every team has to have a lineup that can get stops for stretches in a game. But they are riffing on the old adage, "Defense wins Championships" and they conclude that in today's NBA, you have to have an elite offense to win a championship.

Maybe the reason the Cs have fell short in the past.

View: https://youtu.be/uppGsmWm3xQ?t=2037

Ah gotcha I don't know how I missed that episode. Thanks for sharing.

 

[TomRicardo]

You can listen to it yourself below.

I don't think JJ/Legler aren't saying that defense isn't important - in fact they say that every team has to have a lineup that can get stops for stretches in a game. But they are riffing on the old adage, "Defense wins Championships" and they conclude that in today's NBA, you have to have an elite offense to win a championship.

Maybe the reason the Cs have fell short in the past.

View: https://youtu.be/uppGsmWm3xQ?t=2037

It is effort and execution that helps not just being defensively better.

Edit - This was such a good trade for Toronto who waited too long to pull the trigger on splitting up this team. That said I am wondering if this is going to kill the era of trading for a bunch of ones instead of good young talented players. I really like Quickley even on a year before RFA. I think Barrett is great for Toronto. I wonder if they look to GSW for Siakam.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

It is effort and execution that helps not just being defensively better.

Edit - This was such a good trade for Toronto who waited too long to pull the trigger on splitting up this team. That said I am wondering if this is going to kill the era of trading for a bunch of ones instead of good young talented players. I really like Quickley even on a year before RFA. I think Barrett is great for Toronto. I wonder if they look to GSW for Siakam.

as always, I think it is about the teams goals—Toronto has never really been a tanking team and this fits with those goals/preferences….but teams willing to bottom out will still value draft assets (see, eg Utah)