Lonzo and his brother Chuck Cunningham and his other brother Chuck Cunningham

[the moops]

He stole some expensive ass sunglasses. Depends on how expensive I guess

The maximum sentence for stealing goods in China varies, depending on the value of what has been alleged to be stolen. Stealing goods worth between 1,000 and 2,500 yuan ($150 to $380), for example, comes with a maximum sentence of six months but could result in merely a fine.

Anyone convicted of stealing goods for more than that amount, however, would face jail time. Someone convicted of stealing goods worth between 7,000 and 10,000 yuan ($1,050 to $1,510) would face between two and three years in jail under Chinese law.

Louis Vuitton men’s sunglasses cost $435 to $1,990, according to the company’s U.S. website.

 

[tims4wins]

Has there ever been a player who started his career shooting this poorly that ended up ok? He is under 30% from the field coming into today. 23% from 3. Barely over 50% from the line. Does he have a prayer of even being respectable? How could he ever even be as good as Rondo?

 

[Devizier]

Has there ever been a player who started his career shooting this poorly that ended up ok? He is under 30% from the field coming into today. 23% from 3. Barely over 50% from the line. Does he have a prayer of even being respectable? How could he ever even be as good as Rondo?

Mookie Blaylock.

 

[tims4wins]

Mookie Blaylock.

78% from the line. 37% from the field. Ball is at 53% and 29% right now.

 

[Manzivino]

The 50% from the line is likely SSS, he was 67% in college. Westbrook is the closest comp i can find to his shooting woes from the field, made 2 more fgs in one fewer attempt in his first 11 games (so not including tonight). Russ was much better at FTs (44 of 53 vs 7 of 13) and was coming off the bench; Ball's rebounding and assist numbers were far superior but he's played 100 more minutes than Russ had.

Edit: link to player finder - https://goo.gl/Df4qNQ

If you expand out the parameters, there are a lot of guys who had not quite as bad shooting starts that went on to be good/great. As currently constituted Ball has been bad offensively and His release makes it problematic because you can sag slightly off him and still have time to recover and contest a 3. Still, It's still way too early to write him off as not being able to improve. If he finds one consistent shot against NBA defenders the rest of his game makes him incredibly valuable.

 

[tims4wins]

Interesting

1-4 from the line tonight by the way. 8-16 now on the year

 

[Sportsbstn]

If you expand out the parameters, there are a lot of guys who had not quite as bad shooting starts that went on to be good/great. As currently constituted Ball has been bad offensively and His release makes it problematic because you can sag slightly off him and still have time to recover and contest a 3. Still, It's still way too early to write him off as not being able to improve. If he finds one consistent shot against NBA defenders the rest of his game makes him incredibly valuable.

In college he scored a lot of his points off transition layups and wide open 3 pointers. He has very little intermediate game. He would have to develop an intermediate game in the pros or work on finishing because he can’t finish with both hands which makes his drives extremely predictable.

 

[jmm57]

Looking to raise that fg% a touch tonight with a 3-10 start

 

[Devizier]

78% from the line. 37% from the field. Ball is at 53% and 29% right now.

Look at his december splits -- we're talking about a month's worth of games. I doubt Ball will be this bad throughout a full season.

 

[Marciano490]

What's considered bad and historically bad for fg%?

 

[Manzivino]

In college he scored a lot of his points off transition layups and wide open 3 pointers. He has very little intermediate game. He would have to develop an intermediate game in the pros or work on finishing because he can’t finish with both hands which makes his drives extremely predictable.

Right. He needs to improve just to be a net positive player, nevermind the generational player he’s hyped as. I’m not particularly high on him right now, I put a A lot of stock into the pre-draft breakdowns assessments detailing why he would struggle to score in the NBA. But I also recognize that his passing and basketball IQ are off the charts, his defense has been better than expected out of the gate, and he’s 20 years old. I’m just not prepared to declare him a bust after 12 games; the bar for him to clear to have a productive NBA career is “can he improve from historically bad to Smart-bad shooting” and that’s not a huge leap.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

In my limited time watching ball play, his only value comes in transition. He is a horrific half court player on both ends.

 

[tims4wins]

Looking to raise that fg% a touch tonight with a 3-10 start

3-11 now. Drama!

 

[Manzivino]

What's considered bad and historically bad for fg%?

I’m mobile so it’s hard to dig into but he was pretty close to historically bad career start for his usage rate when I was looking earlier, I’ll try to pull it up when next at a computer. His net rating and on-off stats are both really bad. Most people who shoot as poorly as he has don’t get the run he is, even as touted rookies on bad teams..

 

[tims4wins]

Seems like Lonzo’s night is over. 3-12 field 3-7 line.

 

[Kliq]

Saw on ESPN today that out of 111 players with at least 100 FGA; Lonzo ranked dead last in FG%.

 

[Big John]

He's Marcus Smart without the defense.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

How long does ESPN et al keep hyping him? It's a bit ridiculous.

 

[MuzzyField]

As a shooter he would improve the shooting of ONE team... The A-Team!

 

[Manzivino]

Here are all the rookies since 1984 who played 10+ min per game in their first 12 games and shot as poorly as Lonzo (I cut it off at >= 32% shooting, a 10% cushion on his shooting which comes out to 1 make every 3 games at this small sample ):

https://goo.gl/9zioDM

Nobody played as many minutes as Lonzo, the closest being Mudiay for the Nuggets two years ago. There are still some good players on this list (e.g Westbrook, Eric Gordon, Mike Dunleavy, etc.)

Here is the breakdown at FG% below 32%, 3P% below 25%, FT% below 55: https://goo.gl/d68sRK

Ball, Victor Claver, Nick Collison, Lionel Chalmers, Cedric Bozeman, Keith Bogans, Mark Wade, Junior Harrington, Jerami Grant, Anthony Bennett.

That's the whole list. It's not an inspiring one. Bogans had a decent career as a role player, Grant is an ok bench guy for OKC, Collison is a PF who took 101 career 3s and isn't really comparable. Everyone else was a washout. And Ball gets nearly twice the minutes per game they got in their first 12 games. So his shooting cold streak to start a career isn't exactly historically bad, but he's getting a historic amount of run for a rookie shooting so poorly.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Saw on ESPN today that out of 111 players with at least 100 FGA; Lonzo ranked dead last in FG%.

Dead last in both 2P FG% among players with at least 60 2P FGA and dead last in 3P FG% among players with at least 50 3P FGA.

 

[djbayko]

How long does ESPN et al keep hyping him? It's a bit ridiculous.

Well, I mentioned in a group conversation that Lonzo wasn't a great player yet, and an LA fan told me that I obviously haven't watched any Lakers games this year. Successful propaganda extends beyond politics and into sports, it seems.

 

[djbayko]

In my limited time watching ball play, his only value comes in transition. He is a horrific half court player on both ends.

Yes, I said this in the game thread last night. He's horrible in half court and especially when he doesn't have the ball. It's like he doesn't know what to do with himself and gets in the way of ther players more than anything.

 

[Montana Fan]

He's Marcus Smart without the defense.

He’s Steph Curry without the makes.

 

[MuzzyField]

He's Magic 2.0! Just ask Magic.

 

[lovegtm]

In my limited time watching ball play, his only value comes in transition. He is a horrific half court player on both ends.

It's almost as if he's a limited athlete with no handle and a broken shot.

 

[Valek123]

Too much pressure, sucks his Dad is who he is, almost makes me want to root for him but then I see the purple and gold.

Worst NBA shot form I've ever seen, too much preshot rotation of arm - amazing athlete to make as many as he did in college. Any hiccup and he gets horribly off on shots, his preshot footwork is awful also. Bad balance and often a spin rotation upon lift. Everything looks bad.

He is playing with no confidence in anything but fast breaks, and is horribly slow in defensive rotations. His wingspan is saving him from being absolutely horrific. He's also forcing to try and make it all up in one play consistently.

Needs a break and to be a rookie and not attached to his dad's mouth. With any luck lavar will spend time in China and give him a short break.

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

I haven't heard anything from his dad in about 2 weeks. That could be just me though

 

[Imbricus]

You want to see an ugly three-point shot, check out the clip "Lonzo bricks a three" on the sidebar for the Wizards and Lakers box score here. He's wide open, and his form looks terrible, the shot looks terrible ... I don't know how long Walton can tell him to keep shooting aggressively if keeps flirting with a 30% FG rate. Also, it looks like the defenses are figuring it out too, because no one bothers to come to try to defend him in this clip (edit: to be fair, one Wizard half-heartedly tries to fight through a screen).

 

[Nick Kaufman]

Right. He needs to improve just to be a net positive player, nevermind the generational player he’s hyped as. I’m not particularly high on him right now, I put a A lot of stock into the pre-draft breakdowns assessments detailing why he would struggle to score in the NBA. But I also recognize that his passing and basketball IQ are off the charts, his defense has been better than expected out of the gate, and he’s 20 years old. I’m just not prepared to declare him a bust after 12 games; the bar for him to clear to have a productive NBA career is “can he improve from historically bad to Smart-bad shooting” and that’s not a huge leap.

Really? I would expect more than 35%FG from the second pick of the draft.

 

[DJnVa]

I haven't heard anything from his dad in about 2 weeks. That could be just me though

So you missed the story about how he was told to shut up in China when he wanted to have a press conference after his kid was arrested?

 

[Marciano490]

Too much pressure, sucks his Dad is who he is, almost makes me want to root for him but then I see the purple and gold.

Worst NBA shot form I've ever seen, too much preshot rotation of arm - amazing athlete to make as many as he did in college. Any hiccup and he gets horribly off on shots, his preshot footwork is awful also. Bad balance and often a spin rotation upon lift. Everything looks bad.

He is playing with no confidence in anything but fast breaks, and is horribly slow in defensive rotations. His wingspan is saving him from being absolutely horrific. He's also forcing to try and make it all up in one play consistently.

Needs a break and to be a rookie and not attached to his dad's mouth. With any luck lavar will spend time in China and give him a short break.

Not too hypothesize too much, but that has to be as a result of his dad preempting coaches and telling him to just shoot the way he wants because he's the best player on the court, right? No way another kid that athletic isn't pulled aside in hs and corrected I'd think.

 

[Manzivino]

Really? I would expect more than 35%FG from the second pick of the draft.

Do you think I disagree with that? A Smart-esque shooter with worse defense but better rebounding and elite playmaking is obviously a disappointment with the second overall pick, but its still a productive player. That's a far cry away from being a star, but it's a guy that's going to play in the league for a decade. Ball has to improve from his rough start just to get to that level. He's been bad, bordering on historically bad. It's premature to say he won't ever get better.

I did try to find a way on bbref to search for any stretch of 12 games a rookie has had with shooting as bad as Ball to have a larger pool to compare to than just rookies who had bad starts to their career, but I was unsuccessful. If anyone knows how to do this on the site without manually inputting the game number ranges let me know.

 

[tims4wins]

I just ran a search for rookie seasons for players who qualified for minutes per game leaderboard with a FG% under 35%. The list is not pretty, and Ball is currently ranked 44 of 49. Most of the guys on the list played in the 50s. Draymond Green appears though. But he shot 82% from FT.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=mp_per_g_req&c2stat=fg_pct&c2comp=lt&c2val=35&order_by=fg_pct

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

I just ran a search for rookie seasons for players who qualified for minutes per game leaderboard with a FG% under 35%. The list is not pretty, and Ball is currently ranked 44 of 49. Most of the guys on the list played in the 50s. Draymond Green appears though. But he shot 82% from FT.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&season_start=1&season_end=1&lg_id=NBA&age_min=0&age_max=99&is_playoffs=N&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=mp_per_g_req&c2stat=fg_pct&c2comp=lt&c2val=35&order_by=fg_pct

If you limit it to first 12 games of a career, you get this list of 10 players (<35% FG%, >100 FGA), which includes Jason Kidd and Russell Westbrook.

http://bkref.com/tiny/6wTh8

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Clanging his FTs, too (10 for 20).

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

Clanging his FTs, too (10 for 20).

Yeah, no one else on that list is below 65.8%, Rudy Gay was 70.8% FT, Jason Kidd was 73.3%, Westbrook was 83.6%.

 

[bakahump]

He's Marcus Smart without the defense.

I made this point to some friends.

Both have different strengths and weaknesses but yea...to me they seem like they are essentially the same player at this point.
Neither can shoot well
One can pass amazing One is good
One is Very good to great at defense, the other is ok
Both can rebound credibly.
Both have high BB IQs.
Marcus seems like the slightly better athlete (??)


I am sure the more well versed MBPC members can go deeper into the comparison but it seems apt.

Where will Ball be with 3 or 4 years of experience is a good question and could very well move him slightly ahead of a Marcus Smart career trajectory.

Knowing what we know RIGHT now, would you rather have Ball or Smart?

I do find it funny that they took Ball 2nd in a deep draft and Smart 6th in a weak draft.

 

[oumbi]

I saw recently Ball's shooting stats when he is being guarded and they are grim. He hits wide-open threes (no defender within 6 feet, such as in transition) at a decent 35% clip. This supports a point made earlier in this thread.

His problem is that he absolutely is awful when a defending player is within 6 feet of him. Here are his nearest defender 3PT metrics:

nearest
defender
distance, 3PA, 3PT%
0 to 2 ft, 0, 0.0%
2 to 4 ft, 6, 16.7%
4 to 6 ft, 20, 16.0%
6+ ft, 20, 35.0%

The above does not include his latest 1-7 game against Washington.

EDIT: While I could not find the exact league average for uncontested 3 pointers, here is some info that indicates 35% is below that average.

https://stats.nba.com/teams/shots-closest-defender-10/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular Season&CloseDefDistRange=6+ Feet - Wide Open

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Makes total sense that he would have issues shooting the 3 with a nearby defender given his bizarre motion, which starts weirdly low and forward and takes a while to load up. Accuracy can and usually does improve with increased reps, but release time and blockability doesn't.

Instead of pimping Lonzo 24/7, maybe LaVar should have taken a couple months during some high school offseason to break down and rebuild his shot, as Dell did with Steph.

 

[tims4wins]

If you limit it to first 12 games of a career, you get this list of 10 players (<35% FG%, >100 FGA), which includes Jason Kidd and Russell Westbrook.

http://bkref.com/tiny/6wTh8

Thanks. One thing that jumps out is how infrequently he is getting to the line (I know this has been mentioned before in either this thread or the Terrible Lakers thread).

Edit: this will be fun to track. For instance I expanded the search to 20 games but left the FGA criteria at 100. When you do this Lonzo becomes 25th out of 27 guys in FG%. He is still dead last in FT%.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

One thing that jumps out is how infrequently he is getting to the line (I know this has been mentioned before in either this thread or the Terrible Lakers thread).

At least so far he just seems to struggle around the rim in general. Among rookies with significant playing time he's got by far the lowest FG% for shots within 10 feet according to NBA.com (42.9%, see https://stats.nba.com/players/shots-general/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular Season&GeneralRange=Less Than 10 ft&PlayerExperience=Rookie&sort=FG_PCT&dir=1). Not great for your offensive performance when you don't have a good jump shot, struggle at making close shots/layups and can't hit free throws.

 

[leetinsley38]

Not great for your offensive performance when you don't have a good jump shot, struggle at making close shots/layups and can't hit free throws.

Yes but the touch passes. ESPN should start tracking those, then you’d see.

 

[Cellar-Door]

May I ask how you reached the conclusion that tourists in China would serve several months in prison for shoplifting? I am not arguing they would or would not, but it seems odd. Fines would seem a better solution. Do you have the source for your statement, please?

missed this since you didn't quote me, but as someone else answered, anything over 1000 yuan can be jail time, anything over 2,500 yuan (which I assume this is since it's an LV store) is almost always at least some jail time, anything over 7,000 yuan which it could be, is significant jail time. Usually this probably doesn't even hit the news if it was just some random foreigner, they do some time and are shipped back, how much time depends on how interested their country's embassy is on pushing for them. In this case you have a bunch of sponsors who put on this event, so my guess would be they pay a fine, publicly appologize and are banned from entering China again.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Here are all the rookies since 1984 who played 10+ min per game in their first 12 games and shot as poorly as Lonzo (I cut it off at >= 32% shooting, a 10% cushion on his shooting which comes out to 1 make every 3 games at this small sample ):

https://goo.gl/9zioDM

Nobody played as many minutes as Lonzo, the closest being Mudiay for the Nuggets two years ago. There are still some good players on this list (e.g Westbrook, Eric Gordon, Mike Dunleavy, etc.)

Here is the breakdown at FG% below 32%, 3P% below 25%, FT% below 55: https://goo.gl/d68sRK

Ball, Victor Claver, Nick Collison, Lionel Chalmers, Cedric Bozeman, Keith Bogans, Mark Wade, Junior Harrington, Jerami Grant, Anthony Bennett.

That's the whole list. It's not an inspiring one. Bogans had a decent career as a role player, Grant is an ok bench guy for OKC, Collison is a PF who took 101 career 3s and isn't really comparable. Everyone else was a washout. And Ball gets nearly twice the minutes per game they got in their first 12 games. So his shooting cold streak to start a career isn't exactly historically bad, but he's getting a historic amount of run for a rookie shooting so poorly.

Gary Harris went .250 / .250 ./ 571 in 167 minutes, although every shot he took was a 3P shot.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

missed this since you didn't quote me, but as someone else answered, anything over 1000 yuan can be jail time, anything over 2,500 yuan (which I assume this is since it's an LV store) is almost always at least some jail time, anything over 7,000 yuan which it could be, is significant jail time.

Oh, the delicious irony of getting jailed for ripping off Louis Vuitton in China.

 

[Valek123]

No way another kid that athletic isn't pulled aside in hs and corrected I'd think.

Agreed, I've worked with many kids in HS to rebuild shot form from years of success at low levels with ugly form. I've never seen such bad form on any successful shooter. Maybe he is that prodigy, as he squares the elbow at the last millisecond, but the shot is still to low. Just amazing to watch, I'm trying to think of any shooter ever with such bad mechanics that was successful in the NBA as a guard or PG. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is probably a good reference point, or a successful shooter in Marion. Just weird...

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

My boss went to the game last night and said that one problem with Lonzo's shot is that his ball doesn't spin top to bottom as normal shots due but the spin is off-center. Kind of like Michael Young (if anyone goes that far back). I didn't know that - everything I had heard is that after Lonzo gets past the loading phase, the rest of his mechanics are good.

Can anyone confirm or deny this?

BTW, someone with more times on his hands has a good breakdown of Lonzo's struggles here.

 

[tims4wins]

Man for someone who was supposed to have immaculate court vision that is a ton of examples of not passing to the open guy and just driving into a mess

Edit: that was really enjoyable to watch as a Lonzo hater. He sucked in 90% of those clips

 

[snowmanny]

That is one ugly video. I didn't realize how crappy his court vision/passing is.