Let's get reasonable (moderate improvements to the roster)

[ConigsCorner]

After thinking about it yet again, I'm jumping off of the JD Martinez bandwagon and onto the Santana wagon. If that crashes, then I'm in on Bruce.

Boras is too much of a pain-in-ass to deal with, and he undoubtedly will drag things out with his hyperbolic bullshit.

Do not trade any OF starters, go after McGee for the pen and pencil in a bench
Of Leon, Swihart, Brentz, and Marrero. Please, Lord, no more Brock Holt.

Saves dough/trade chips for trade deadline and next season's FA class.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

That bench is really limited unless Swihart picks up another position or 3. Lin probably gets a shot at a bench job too.

edit: Swihart also hasn't played since 10/31. Anyone know why? You'd think they would want him getting some time in the OF.

 

[Just a bit outside]

I would rather take a shot for one year of Duda instead of 3 years of Bruce if we are not trading any of our outfielders. Neither player hits lefties very well but Duda has more power and hits righties better. I think Bruce will get overpaid because he spiked last year. That was his best year in the last 4 and I don't think he keeps it up.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Santana officially declined his qualifying offer.

 

[PapaSox]

The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of a safe winter where they trade JBJ for Belt and a prospect or bench piece and then sign Jay Bruce to play left field. Yeah, he's more likely 2016 Jay Bruce than the 2017 version going forward, meaning about 10% better than league average, but the 30 HR power is real and Bruce and Belt would be an overall upgrade offensively over JBJ and Moreland. You are sacrificing defense in the outfield, but Benintendi can play a solid CF and Bruce should be pretty good in left. Bruce can also handle a little 1st base if need be, meaning no need to suffer Hanley out there.

removed for brevity

This also likely keeps them under the $237M secondary threshold with a little room to maneuver in season without costing them any picks for QO signees or IFA money. If they can keep Bruce on the hook for a bit while they wait out the Martinez market, this would be a fine fallback position, IMO.

Not sure I'm sold on the Bruce/Belt idea. I agree offensively their both positive additions. However, Belt requires sending existing players/prospects which I can't get my head around. If Bruce would come along to DH and be the fourth OF I could agree to that. I know it has Hanley playing 1B but I think he'll do all right and may get in to the game a little more. And, it does keep JBJ in CF and we don't need to go after Austin Jackson.

 

[PapaSox]

Is it my imagination or is there a general snub of Kelly by the board?

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Not sure I'm sold on the Bruce/Belt idea. I agree offensively their both positive additions. However, Belt requires sending existing players/prospects which I can't get my head around. If Bruce would come along to DH and be the fourth OF I could agree to that. I know it has Hanley playing 1B but I think he'll do all right and may get in to the game a little more. And, it does keep JBJ in CF and we don't need to go after Austin Jackson.

I think one reasonable long-term option for replacing Hanley might be doing a minor trade with Seattle for the now-blocked Dan Vogelbach.

I’m always a big fan of guys with his OBP profile in the minors, and he fits into a good slot for the organization (LH corner bat with options).

 

[tonyarmasjr]

The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of a safe winter where they trade JBJ for Belt and a prospect or bench piece and then sign Jay Bruce to play left field. Yeah, he's more likely 2016 Jay Bruce than the 2017 version going forward, meaning about 10% better than league average, but the 30 HR power is real and Bruce and Belt would be an overall upgrade offensively over JBJ and Moreland. You are sacrificing defense in the outfield, but Benintendi can play a solid CF and Bruce should be pretty good in left. Bruce can also handle a little 1st base if need be, meaning no need to suffer Hanley out there.

Why not just sign Bruce (or Duda even) to be a 1B/DH split with Hanley and 5th OF? I don't think the defense in your scenario is any better than either JBJ/Moreland or JBJ/Bruce. There's a downgrade from JBJ to Benintendi in CF and from Beni to Bruce in LF. It may not be huge, but it's certainly there. It's not like Moreland was terrible at 1B. I don't see an overall defensive upgrade. Belt doesn't provide any more HRs than Bradley - they've both hit 53 over the last 3 years (JBJ in 230 fewer PA). I like Brandon Belt, and I think he and JBJ provide similar production (9.8 vs 10.7 fWAR over the last 3 years) - but their contract situations are the clearest difference in their value.

 

[charlieoscar]

I would rather take a shot for one year of Duda...

Yeah, and they could play Camptown Races every time he comes to the plate.

 

[tonyarmasjr]

Is it my imagination or is there a general snub of Kelly by the board?

I think it's generally understood that his 2.79 ERA outpaced his peripherals. The 102 mph fastball is great, but his command is not. His FIP and xFIP were 3.49 and 4.07. And his LOB% (which isn't captured in that) was 77.5% - ranking 67th among qualified relievers. He's a decent, but not great, reliever. I know I certainly felt more comfortable with Reed or Smith in close and late game situations.

 

[sean1562]

That lackey trade was the worst. Ben Cherington was a terrible GM

 

[chawson]

Some interesting FA relievers among last season's xwOBA leaders.

Guys like Neshek and Minor have gotten some attention, but I was surprised to see some truly boring-ass pitchers showing dominance last year. Joe Smith, Tommy Hunter, Bryan Shaw, George Kontos, David Hernandez, Anthony Swarzak, and the immortal Matt Albers could be added to our hunt for a setup guy very cheaply.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

That lackey trade was the worst. Ben Cherington was a terrible GM

A core of Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Benintendi, Vazquez and Devers is the best. Ben Cherington was a phenomenal GM!

 

[chawson]

A core of Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Benintendi, Vazquez and Devers is the best. Ben Cherington was a phenomenal GM!

Can't tell if this is sarcasm, but only two of those guys became Red Sox under Cherington's watch.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Can't tell if this is sarcasm, but only two of those guys became Red Sox under Cherington's watch.

I was mocking a post that showed zero understanding of how a baseball front office works, or the futility of condemning of GM because of one move in particular. The Lackey trade was not made by Cherington alone, just like that core was not built by Cherington alone. Cherington was in a position of influence when each one was acquired and likely during dozens of discussions about potential trades when they were still developing. So he had a significant hand in each one being part of the current core, along with plenty of other people. Much like the Lackey trade, which Cherington did not make while locked in his office with his email disconnected and sound proof walls to avoid the input of his peers.

It was a shitty post, it deserved a shitty reply.

 

[MikeM]

Some interesting FA relievers among last season's xwOBA leaders.

Guys like Neshek and Minor have gotten some attention, but I was surprised to see some truly boring-ass pitchers showing dominance last year. Joe Smith, Tommy Hunter, Bryan Shaw, George Kontos, David Hernandez, Anthony Swarzak, and the immortal Matt Albers could be added to our hunt for a setup guy very cheaply.

Has DD hinted that he's looking to add another setup man yet?

Or I guess more specifically, do the Sox even walk out of this winter adding another pricey'ish MLB bullpen contract with Smith healthy and both Wright and Thornburg (hopefully) coming back to compete for spots in ST?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Has DD hinted that he's looking to add another setup man yet?

Or I guess more specifically, do the Sox even walk out of this winter adding another pricey'ish MLB bullpen contract with Smith healthy and both Wright and Thornburg (hopefully) coming back to compete for spots in ST?

No hints that I'm aware of, though I'm not sure Wright is much of a factor in bullpen construction.

I do think that if DD is going to delve into the market for a reliever at all, he will probably be looking for a lefty. They're fairly deep on solid RHRPs even without Thornburg returning to full health, but when Robby Scott is your best/most experienced LHRP, you're not very deep at all.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

No hints that I'm aware of, though I'm not sure Wright is much of a factor in bullpen construction.

Wright's eventual home might be as a long man. Sale, Price, Pomeranz, Rodriguez, Porcello is likely the rotation Dombrowski is hoping to see for most of the year. Having Wright as the long man means that when the inevitable injury does happen, the "next guy up" is right there ready to go.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Wright's eventual home might be as a long man. Sale, Price, Pomeranz, Rodriguez, Porcello is likely the rotation Dombrowski is hoping to see for most of the year. Having Wright as the long man means that when the inevitable injury does happen, the "next guy up" is right there ready to go.

I understand that. I just mean that I don't think his presence will influence Dombrowski's decision making with the rest of the bullpen. I suppose if we're considering the seventh bullpen spot and it's down to having a long man like Wright (or Brian Johnson) or someone like Brandon Workman or Heath Hembree, then maybe Wright is in the equation. But I don't think Wright isn't going to stand in the way of Dombrowski going after a second-tier Bryan Shaw-type reliever if that's what he chooses to do.

 

[grimshaw]

I do think that if DD is going to delve into the market for a reliever at all, he will probably be looking for a lefty. They're fairly deep on solid RHRPs even without Thornburg returning to full health, but when Robby Scott is your best/most experienced LHRP, you're not very deep at all.

I don't disagree that they have little depth in that area, I just question how important it is in today's game when teams are having tougher times keeping arms fresh and k-rates are sky rocketing.

Innings soaking is more important IMO. If a lefty can do both, then great, but that guy is going to be pricey.

 

[chrisfont9]

That bench is really limited unless Swihart picks up another position or 3. Lin probably gets a shot at a bench job too.

edit: Swihart also hasn't played since 10/31. Anyone know why? You'd think they would want him getting some time in the OF.

Are you sure he hasn't played? I can't seem to find any info either way, but on 11/11 Gammo mentioned him in a column about how well he's hitting down there.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Are you sure he hasn't played? I can't seem to find any info either way, but on 11/11 Gammo mentioned him in a column about how well he's hitting down there.

Winter league stats are on MLB.com. Here's Swihart's page showing he was hitting .407/.515/.481 in 9 games through 10/31.

Apparently, he left his team in the Dominican after 10/31 for his wedding.

 

[Pozo the Clown]

Apparently, he left his team in the Dominican after 10/31 for his wedding.

Where are his priorities?!?

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Who can the Sox sell off for International pool money? Otani would look damn good here.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Who can the Sox sell off for International pool money? Otani would look damn good here.

They already traded for as much as they can this IFA period (meaning until next July 2nd). If they have any room left to gain, it's not much... as in maybe a couple hundred thousand, not something in the millions.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

They should offer Ohtani/Otani jersey #34 and tell him he'll DH on off days. And Papi should convey the offer, with Uehara as the interpreter, if necessary. Wearing their WS rings, of course.

 

[PapaSox]

I was thinking rather than re-signing Fister, Reed and Nunez the Sox should work out a trade with Reds for Iglesias, Stephenson and Peraza. Iglesias could do setup, Stephenson MR/Spot Start and Peraza covering 2B/SS. Then adding either Bruce as a DH/4th OF or Santana 1B & Austin Jackson 4th OF would be possible with money to spare for Trade Deadline.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I was thinking rather than re-signing Fister, Reed and Nunez the Sox should work out a trade with Reds for Iglesias, Stephenson and Peraza. Iglesias could do setup, Stephenson MR/Spot Start and Peraza covering 2B/SS. Then adding either Bruce as a DH/4th OF or Santana 1B & Austin Jackson 4th OF would be possible with money to spare for Trade Deadline.

And what do you trade for all that? I'm also not sure why the Reds would want to trade 3 young, cost controlled players to the Redsox. Iglesias would be particularly expensive to acquire. Those 3 players are exactly the type of players the Reds should want on their team. It makes no sense to trade them.

edit: Stephenson would be expensive too. He was significantly better as a starter and finished the season on a strong note, with 9 starts, 2.50 era, 50.1ip, 28bb/52k and a 1.31 whip while limiting hitters to a .205/.313/.318 line. Peraza himself is only 23 and has shown the ability to hit for average in the minors. Granted he has 0 power and doesn't walk at all but he has some speed and doesn't strike out.

 

[PapaSox]

It all depends on what DD is willing to trade for them. He gets 3 cost controlled players (roughly 3 years each) which would justify releasing prospects. If using ML then I could image someone like Pomeranz making this interesting to the Reds. It would likely need to be pitching and either high-end prospects (e.g., Groome) or ML ready arms, previously mentioned Pomeranz.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

It all depends on what DD is willing to trade for them. He gets 3 cost controlled players (roughly 3 years each) which would justify releasing prospects. If using ML then I could image someone like Pomeranz making this interesting to the Reds. It would likely need to be pitching and either high-end prospects (e.g., Groome) or ML ready arms, for mentioned Pomeranz.

I dont think the Sox even have enough to trade for Iglesias. The farm system is abysmal.

 

[PapaSox]

I dont think the Sox even have enough to trade for Iglesias. The farm system is abysmal.

The only ones I can think of are Groome, Chavis and Travis with Johnson thrown in to round out a deal. However, I think it will take a combination of ML and prospects to make the deal. I keep mentioning Pomeranz because I feel he is not as good as last season indicates (Strictly a gut thing) and a tad more fragile than I'd like.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

It all depends on what DD is willing to trade for them. He gets 3 cost controlled players (roughly 3 years each) which would justify releasing prospects. If using ML then I could image someone like Pomeranz making this interesting to the Reds. It would likely need to be pitching and either high-end prospects (e.g., Groome) or ML ready arms, previously mentioned Pomeranz.

Groome lost a lot of value this past season. The Redsox don't have the high end prospects to get a deal done. The Reds would be moving their starting SS, one of their SP and their closer. The price would probably be Benintendi, not Groome. I don't see why the Reds would even have interest in Pomeranz since they aren't going to be winning any time soon and he's going to get expensive, but I guess it's possible.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I keep mentioning Pomeranz because I feel he is not as good as last season indicates (Strictly a gut thing) and a tad more fragile than I'd like.

He was just as good in 2016 as a SP, even on the Redsox. Pom had a few bad games for us in 2016 so it skewed his overall line since the sample size was only 68.2 ip. In 8 of his 13 starts for the Sox in 2016, he gave up 2 runs or less. In another, he gave up 3. He was also great as a MR in Oakland the previous 2 years.

Since 2014, he has an era of 3.24 over 499.1ip, 425 Hits, 56 Hrs, 191bb/506k with a WHIP of 1.234. 24.4% K rate, 9.2% BB rate, 2.7% HR rate. I can get why some people don't like him though. He doesn't particularly go deep in games and sometimes walks are an issue, but Pom has been good for awhile now. Not just last season.

He may very well be a trade high candidate if the Sox were intend on moving a SP for whatever reason. He'd probably bring back more than Anderson Espinoza.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I keep mentioning Pomeranz because I feel he is not as good as last season indicates (Strictly a gut thing) and a tad more fragile than I'd like.

Fragile? He has two straight seasons of 30+ starts, and ranks 20th in MLB in games started for those two seasons. The season before that he appeared in 53 games as a swingman, and the longest he went between appearances as a reliever that year was 4 games.

 

[PapaSox]

Fragile? He has two straight seasons of 30+ starts, and ranks 20th in MLB in games started for those two seasons. The season before that he appeared in 53 games as a swingman, and the longest he went between appearances as a reliever that year was 4 games.

As I said it's a "Gut" thing. Anyway, I think all of you convinced me that its a "NO-GO". And, I hope my "gut feeling" is wrong.

 

[gryoung]

Groome lost a lot of value this past season. The Redsox don't have the high end prospects to get a deal done. The Reds would be moving their starting SS, one of their SP and their closer. The price would probably be Benintendi, not Groome. I don't see why the Reds would even have interest in Pomeranz since they aren't going to be winning any time soon and he's going to get expensive, but I guess it's possible.

How much value did Groome lose last year and why?

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

How much value did Groome lose last year and why?

A lot. He was hurt for a significant portion of the year and had a 6.70 ERA with a 4.56 FIP and a 3.44 xFIP at A ball with 5.08 BB/9 over 44.1 IP. He had an 11.77 K/9, and his low A numbers looked much better (just 11 IP), so it wasn't all bad, but he absolutely took a sizable step back as a trade chip or in the rankings (if you care about those).

The injury issues weren't arm related, so that's also good. And his father was arrested, tried and convicted of trafficking meth, which I can't imagine a 19 year old is prepared to handle emotionally in such a short time, so there's plenty of reason to hope he bounces back next year and regains elite prospect status. But he's put himself in a position where that's not the default assumption anymore. He has to go out and re-earn it.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

How much value did Groome lose last year and why?

He went from a top 40 prospect to in the 80-100 range mostly due to injury and poor performance.

 

[billy ashley]

RE Groome: While yeah, I think it's fair to say his value dropped, following him closely on SoxProspects, it doesn't seem like his overall outlook has changed much.

A lot of us (myself included) were expecting more of a polished product based on the 1-1 hype he got going into the draft. He was (and still is) so well regarded because he's got a great frame, easy and repeatable mechanics, a MLB quality curve ball that could be plus now, and plenty of arm strength.

What he wasn't and still isn't yet able to do is to hold his velocity in games (he starts of 92-94 and ends low 90s). There have been reports of him hitting the upper 90s, but the speculation is that he's been dialing it back for command.

His change up is also at this point isn't ready to be consistently relied upon. It has shown flashes of being a potential major league offering but he has more games where it's not working versus working at this point.

I think based on his profile, he was always going to drop in value over his debut season. He's someone to be excited about, but he's probably a level by season guy (he was a relatively young HS senior, too).

The injuries and meh performance certainly are impacting people's perceptions... but the former is the only thing to "worry" about at this time.

 

[Rich Garces Belly]

Sale asked for Groome’s number after the season and wants to take him under his wing and train together. I forget where I read this, so I’ll look. There’s not another better mentor in the game for Groome.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Sale asked for Groome’s number after the season and wants to take him under his wing and train together. I forget where I read this, so I’ll look. There’s not another better mentor in the game for Groome.

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/red-sox-offseason-news-and-notes.21444/page-2#post-2548919

 

[PapaSox]

Okay then. I've come back around to Santana, re-sign Fister and Reed, would like to make a run at Peraza (Reds) rather than Nunez but he'd be my 2nd choice and add Austin Jackson to the OF. I'd like to add another arm that could do spot starts as I'm not completely confident in Wright coming back and Fister being good enough but I don't see a candidate. I'd like Alex Cobb but once ERod is back then what do we do? Could the Sox handle a return of Lackey?

 

[InsideTheParker]

Okay then. I've come back around to Santana, re-sign Fister and Reed, would like to make a run at Peraza (Reds) rather than Nunez but he'd be my 2nd choice and add Austin Jackson to the OF. I'd like to add another arm that could do spot starts as I'm not completely confident in Wright coming back and Fister being good enough but I don't see a candidate. I'd like Alex Cobb but once ERod is back then what do we do? Could the Sox handle a return of Lackey?

I know that I couldn't. Why on earth would this ever happen, given the unpleasant way that he left the team?
As for spot starts, whatever happened to Brian Johnson? Has he been irretrievably broken or something?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

As for spot starts, whatever happened to Brian Johnson? Has he been irretrievably broken or something?

Nothing has happened to Johnson. He's certainly in the mix for rotation depth. The problem is that he will be in the same boat as Wright...no options. Which leads to Dombrowski suggesting Johnson may be converted to relieving full time. His best chance to make the club is in the bullpen anyhow, and considering how thin the Sox are in the LH reliever department, that could be a good thing.

My guess is that barring a trade or free agent acquisition, Wright and Johnson are going to be competing to open the season as the fifth starter, with the runner up likely being the long/swing man in the pen. Then when ERod returns, somebody may have to go.

 

[StuckOnYouk]

Don't forget about Velazquez as a 5th-6th/long man type

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Jalen Beeks is probably in line for some spot starts this year too if all goes well.

 

[PapaSox]

Don't forget about Velazquez as a 5th-6th/long man type

Forgot completely about him. Okay Velazquez, Wright (When he returns), Johnson and Beeks (PawSox prospect). I can live with that.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Assuming one of Wright and Johnson is a full time reliever (because you can't really stash two long reliever/spot starters in the pen for long), rotation depth beyond the top 5 (counting Rodriguez in that) is Wright/Johnson, Velazquez, Elias, Owens (assuming he isn't a DFA for roster space) and Beeks. All but Wright/Johnson have options and can be stashed in the Pawtucket or Portland rotations as needed.

 

[Plympton91]

Given that Velazquez is still eligible for ROY, shouldn't he be showing up on Red Sox prospect lists? And, if so, isn't he no worse than 3rd on that list?

I think Farrell unfairly buried him based on a bad first impression. With Cora and his staff getting an almost totally fresh look at the organization, he may be the sleeper of 2018. Not sure how he's going to break in, but I could see him being a Wright in 2016 level contributor.

 

[jon abbey]

Given that Velazquez is still eligible for ROY, shouldn't he be showing up on Red Sox prospect lists? And, if so, isn't he no worse than 3rd on that list?

He turns 29 tomorrow, so no. I'm not opining on whether that is the way things should be or not, but guys that old are never considered 'prospects', rightly or wrongly (probably rightly).