Let's get reasonable (moderate improvements to the roster)

MikeM

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The only way I could see a convincing case being made for Adams here is under that condition that he could actually play LF.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I’m sure I’ve read reports that the CBT loophole he was grandfathered into got closed, but I’m unclear if that meant his salary would count against the cap if he ever got called up again (even if removed from the 40-man afterward), or if when he’s assigned to Pawtucket this March his salary will count against the cap for next year’s calculations despite not being on the 40-man. Very confusing.
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I haven't seen anything that confirms Castillo's contract won't count against the cap next year. I've seen a few sites that confirms it does, but I'm not sure how accurate spotrac.com is on MLB salary. Re your comment to me, I agree Castillo makes more sense than Brentz in any scenario that doesn't have JBJ and Ben10 on the team. Right now, his role would be either DH or LF vs lefties, depending on if Hanley is playing 1b or not.

Tzu-Wei Lin would be an interesting option if he batted righty, as he has the ability to play 2b, 3b, SS and CF. He also has a strong enough arm to play RF. Crazily enough, Lin's Marcel projections for next year in 233 PA: .263/.345/.415. Castiilo's is .251/.307/.388. Brentz .258/.325/.414. Heh, if that was even close to accurate on Lin we would all be doing cartwheels.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The only way I could see a convincing case being made for Adams here is under that condition that he could actually play LF.
How much would he have made in arbitration? If you can get him for close to the minimum or a little more, why not? Hell, maybe you can stash him in AAA like the Orioles did with Pedro Alvarez last year. He made $2.8 mil last year and was released.
 

MikeM

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How much would he have made in arbitration? If you can get him for close to the minimum or a little more, why not? Hell, maybe you can stash him in AAA like the Orioles did with Pedro Alvarez last year. He made $2.8 mil last year and was released.
I've seen estimates stating he'd of got $4.6m. Which on that note probably doesn't bode well for the FA 1B this winter behind Hosmer/Santana/Morrison.

You are probably right in that he could end up a stash project. Although I was asking more in hypothetical terms that saw us trade Bradley for Abreu, and then speculating whether he could even be considered an option as the LF guy platooning with Brentz (at least to start the year).
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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The only way I could see a convincing case being made for Adams here is under that condition that he could actually play LF.
Why is that?

I ask because I don’t see what argument would put Adams in LF rather than 1B. What’s your logic?
 

MikeM

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Why is that?

I ask because I don’t see what argument would put Adams in LF rather than 1B. What’s your logic?
The only reason Adams would even be worth consideration at 1B is under the assumption reach that it would be accompanying a JD Martinez signing (I'm currently eliminating the Stanton possibility there), which in turn would help balance the massive amount of incoming salary. Otherwise there is literally no chance here that DD cheaps out to an extent where Adams ends up being the solution guy over the other free agents out there.

I was just attempting to look for another way it could actually make sense, since free agency is offering a smaller pool of potential LF options in the hypothetically event we were to end up shopping for one.
 
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tonyarmasjr

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Why would you be shocked?

And yes, this is where Brentz may actually be an asset. He's not very likely to be a game-changing one, but there was enough to like about his AAA performance (.271/.334/.539 in 450 AB) that he should definitely remain in the picture. He's not the only way to solve this section, but this is where DDski has the most flexibility to piece together above-average production a la 2013's Nava/Gomes/Carp.
Brentz should fill the Chris Young role nicely. He has a much better approach vs L than R. I could see him giving us 200 PA of solid production if he's platooned correctly. If JD Martinez is signed and one of JBJ/Ben10 is traded, Brentz no longer has a role on the team though.
Posted previously, but Brentz was also taking reps at 1B last season: http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/08/scouting-scratch-potential-sept-call.html
 

Harry Hooper

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But it’s been well-documented that Farrell didn’t think Castillo would be an asset over what Young, and then Davis as well, brought to the club (for less money). I think that assessment was the deciding factor, given how DDski shitcanned $50MM because Farrell didn’t think Panda was an asset to the team over Marrero and Holt, and then didn’t even pour a cup of September coffee for Brentz, who had only led the IL in homers. So yeah, I still think it’s fair to blame Farrell.
Christopher Smith maintains that under the new CBA Castillo's grandfathered (non)payroll status is gone for good if Castillo ever goes back on the 40-man roster.

Where is this well-documented evidence that Farrell was keeping Castillo down at AAA? You know the Sandoval situation is different -- Farrell wasn't going to play him, and there was no way out of his salary figuring into the Sox payroll calculation. As for Brentz, bringing him up would have posed no significant financial implications, so that non-move was indeed due to a lack of enthusiasm on Farrell's part.
 

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Someone said it earlier on the board, which thread I'm not sure, that DD needs to make a splash. I think that means one of three things: Hosmer, JD Martinez or Stanton.
Can we please stop lumping Hoser in with Martinez and Stanton? He's been a league average hitter in 2 of his last 4 seasons and just so happened to have his biggest year at the plate in his first free agent contract year. Betting on him being his 2017 self would be idiotic, and even if he was his 2017 production going forward, that makes him a good, not great first baseman. He would not constitute "a splash" this winter, and if Dombrowski thinks he would, he should be fired immediately.
 

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Can we please stop lumping Hoser in with Martinez and Stanton? He's been a league average hitter in 2 of his last 4 seasons and just so happened to have his biggest year at the plate in his first free agent contract year. Betting on him being his 2017 self would be idiotic, and even if he was his 2017 production going forward, that makes him a good, not great first baseman. He would not constitute "a splash" this winter, and if Dombrowski thinks he would, he should be fired immediately.
This nickname should stick
 

lexrageorge

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I’m sure I’ve read reports that the CBT loophole he was grandfathered into got closed, but I’m unclear if that meant his salary would count against the cap if he ever got called up again (even if removed from the 40-man afterward), or if when he’s assigned to Pawtucket this March his salary will count against the cap for next year’s calculations despite not being on the 40-man. Very confusing.

Anyway, I expect that Cora will be able to break Rusney out of RI, should that be what he thinks is best for the team as a whole. If the Sox need a bench bat to platoon with Beni in CF and also play LF as a defensive replacement for JDM, I hope they give Rusney another chance. The Sox are going over the tax threshold in each of the next two seasons, regardless.

But it’s been well-documented that Farrell didn’t think Castillo would be an asset over what Young, and then Davis as well, brought to the club (for less money). I think that assessment was the deciding factor, given how DDski shitcanned $50MM because Farrell didn’t think Panda was an asset to the team over Marrero and Holt, and then didn’t even pour a cup of September coffee for Brentz, who had only led the IL in homers. So yeah, I still think it’s fair to blame Farrell.
Farrell was absolutely right on the bolded. He was likely right on Castillo as well.
 

chawson

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JDM has been the target anyway, but if there’s any direct response DD makes to the Stanton signing, it’s a cheap deal for Joe Smith. RH hitters had a .234 wOBA against him last year. That was 23rd among MLB relievers.

He’d join two other relievers in the top 20 — Kimbrel (.151) and Kelly (.221). Carson Smith posted a .227 in his last full season.

As for our four-LH rotation, all of them are above average vs. right-handed hitters. It’s true that Stanton crushes lefties, but Judge is relatively mediocre against them.

It’s Porcello we need to worry about.
 

jon abbey

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JDM has been the target anyway, but if there’s any direct response DD makes to the Stanton signing, it’s a cheap deal for Joe Smith. RH hitters had a .234 wOBA against him last year. That was 23rd among MLB relievers.
Judge, Stanton and Sanchez are a combined 0-13 career against him, good call.
 

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Wondering if the Sox could fill the Chris Young spot via low cost acquisition.

I'm thinking Lane Adams, currently the 4th outfielder for the Braves.

He's basically the player that Chris Young has been the last few seasons. He's right handed, pulls the ball like mad (especially on fly balls), and can play all the outfield positions. He's also younger and has accrued very little MLB service time. The Braves probably won't be in a rush to get rid of him, but he's not exactly a hot commodity and they have Acuna coming up soon.
 

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Brentz as a hitter is fine, but he's a pure corner outfielder and probably a LF only in Fenway?
Sure, but that's not really an issue when you have three guys out there capable of manning center. Even if they trade JBJ for something, they've still got two of those.
 

pinkunicornsox

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I am not sure if the Brewers are trying to contend in 2018, but what would it take to get Thames from them? He can play first base and occasionally the outfield.
 

grimshaw

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I am not sure if the Brewers are trying to contend in 2018, but what would it take to get Thames from them? He can play first base and occasionally the outfield.
He's on a good contract, so doubtful.
I know they were trying to move Domingo Santana, but that was to open up room in the OF for Brinson.
My guess is they are buyers otherwise.
 

Murderer's Crow

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I am not sure if the Brewers are trying to contend in 2018, but what would it take to get Thames from them? He can play first base and occasionally the outfield.
He had a good year but after April, he struggled quite a bit on and off and has a lot of trouble vs lefties. Even his great September was padded by a 447 bapib. I'd stay away.
 

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The prospective contracts tied to the Sox (JD, Hosmer) have a strong whiff of turning into Crawford 2.0 deals. I would leave the OF alone and hope the new coaching staff can help them and Xander bounce back and add some power to the lineup.

I would be happy to see DD go get Miggy as a salary saving deal for Detroit; the Sox send a lottery ticket, and Detroit sends enough money to bring down the AAV and reduce Boston’s exposure in the back end. I don’t know where the line is that Detroit sees enough savings and Boston sees the risk mitigated enough thatthey can release him at the end. The big risk is that if he’s cooked now, but Miggy is a legitimate HOFer as opposed to other players who’ve gotten the “potential” tag when we’ve looked at signing players long term (thinking AGon & Pedroia).

If that doesn’t work , just re-sign Moreland for 1B. I’d also like to see a bit more depth so that people who should be on the DL aren’t in the lineup dragging the offense down for longer than said replacement.

Save money for the deadline and to go after Machado next offseason.
 

EricFeczko

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The prospective contracts tied to the Sox (JD, Hosmer) have a strong whiff of turning into Crawford 2.0 deals. I would leave the OF alone and hope the new coaching staff can help them and Xander bounce back and add some power to the lineup.

I would be happy to see DD go get Miggy as a salary saving deal for Detroit; the Sox send a lottery ticket, and Detroit sends enough money to bring down the AAV and reduce Boston’s exposure in the back end. I don’t know where the line is that Detroit sees enough savings and Boston sees the risk mitigated enough thatthey can release him at the end. The big risk is that if he’s cooked now, but Miggy is a legitimate HOFer as opposed to other players who’ve gotten the “potential” tag when we’ve looked at signing players long term (thinking AGon & Pedroia).

If that doesn’t work , just re-sign Moreland for 1B. I’d also like to see a bit more depth so that people who should be on the DL aren’t in the lineup dragging the offense down for longer than said replacement.

Save money for the deadline and to go after Machado next offseason.
I fail to see how most of the post is defensible.

I agree that Hosmer looks like a bust and comparable to crawford; in the prior four years, both players had low ISO and high BABIP, which makes them easy to spot for regression.

JD Martinez has had 200+ ISO consistently over the past four years, high BABIP, and his weakest season was in 2015 (wRC+ was 136). Miguel Cabrera will be 35 next year and just had a 92 wRC+ season, posting his lowest ISO and third highest K% ever. In fact, Miggy's second best HR total is barely better than JD's worst over the past four years. In all likelihood, JD will sign a deal through the 2023 season, probably around 200 million. Miggy is owed ~30 million AAV through 2023. Not to mention that JD can spell in the outfield, whereas Miggy is limited to 1B at this point. If you don't want to spend resources on JD, I fail to see how miggy is a better alternative. In fact, he's probably a lot more expensive in terms of resources (either farm or $$$$).

The number of injuries we had to middle infielders was a bit absurd last season (pedroia, nunez, holt, hernandez, xander were all injured at some point -- not to mention the black hole at 3B until Devers arrived). When you're looking at your third or fourth choice for SS/2B, you are kind of on last legs.

I'm not sure resigning the 23/24th best 1B in the league is necessarily the best idea for a team with a closing window. Also, why does machado, whose value is more tied to his fielding at SS than this offense (career 115 wRC+, with a 102 wRC+ last year), make any sense?
 

chawson

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The prospective contracts tied to the Sox (JD, Hosmer) have a strong whiff of turning into Crawford 2.0 deals. I would leave the OF alone and hope the new coaching staff can help them and Xander bounce back and add some power to the lineup.

I would be happy to see DD go get Miggy as a salary saving deal for Detroit; the Sox send a lottery ticket, and Detroit sends enough money to bring down the AAV and reduce Boston’s exposure in the back end. I don’t know where the line is that Detroit sees enough savings and Boston sees the risk mitigated enough thatthey can release him at the end. The big risk is that if he’s cooked now, but Miggy is a legitimate HOFer as opposed to other players who’ve gotten the “potential” tag when we’ve looked at signing players long term (thinking AGon & Pedroia).

If that doesn’t work , just re-sign Moreland for 1B. I’d also like to see a bit more depth so that people who should be on the DL aren’t in the lineup dragging the offense down for longer than said replacement.

Save money for the deadline and to go after Machado next offseason.
I agree with you, except the Tigers would need to package two of Castellanos, Fulmer, Norris and Greene for us to take Miggy.

We’re not getting Machado. Ever.
 

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I'd imagine the Tigers would want to see what Miggy's back looks like this spring before deciding to deal him. They may find a taker for 50% of his contract and a bag of balls this winter, but if he comes back and looks like himself again, they should be able to get significantly more for him.

I don't like the looks of any of the free agent first basemen on a long contract. One of Morrison, Duda, or Moreland will be available for cheap on a one year deal if Martinez doesn't sign. You just hope you pick the one who happens to have a big year.
 

Sampo Gida

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Brentz as a hitter is fine, but he's a pure corner outfielder and probably a LF only in Fenway?
Well, our primary need is at DH if Hanley can play 1B

As for 1B, assuming Hanley cant play 1B, trading Shaw looks even more short sighted now
 

EricFeczko

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I'd imagine the Tigers would want to see what Miggy's back looks like this spring before deciding to deal him. They may find a taker for 50% of his contract and a bag of balls this winter, but if he comes back and looks like himself again, they should be able to get significantly more for him.

I don't like the looks of any of the free agent first basemen on a long contract. One of Morrison, Duda, or Moreland will be available for cheap on a one year deal if Martinez doesn't sign. You just hope you pick the one who happens to have a big year.
This push on Moreland is nearly as a baffling as the push for Eric Hosmer. Perhaps more so.

The average 1B in the MLB has a wRC+ of 113 and wOBA of .345 in 2017. Mitch Moreland ranked 27th and 28th for both (out of 34, min 400 PA -- roughly 20th percentile of starting 1B), having nearly 15 points lower wRC+ and 20 points lower wOBA. There's no argument that Mitch was underperforming (injury aside); last year was right around his career average rates.

The problem with Duda is that he is pretty bad against left-handed pitching; duda would have to be platooned,

I could see an argument made for Morrison, though it should be vetted; Morrison generated more power than Hosmer but got on base less and struck out more, otherwise, the difference in wRC+ is about 5 points, (13 for wOBA). Morrison himself is probably a great argument against Hosmer.
 

grimshaw

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This push on Moreland is nearly as a baffling as the push for Eric Hosmer. Perhaps more so.

The average 1B in the MLB has a wRC+ of 113 and wOBA of .345 in 2017. Mitch Moreland ranked 27th and 28th for both (out of 34, min 400 PA -- roughly 20th percentile of starting 1B), having nearly 15 points lower wRC+ and 20 points lower wOBA. There's no argument that Mitch was underperforming (injury aside); last year was right around his career average rates.
That's what I've been saying. He'll be lucky to get anything more than he did last year since he's really just a platoon option only. The deeper into the off-season this goes, the antsier some of the bottom tier guys are going to get if they want to play for a good team. Someone is going to get a serious bargain for a much better hitter than Moreland.

He should be plan E or something.
 

Sampo Gida

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With Bruce lowering his demand to 4 yrs and probably looking at. 18 million AAV I think he deserves more consideration for 1B/DH and helps increase OF depth in LF.

Bentz probably should be given a shot at some DH/LF AB with Benny moving to CF and sitting JBJ against some tough LHPer
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Save money for the deadline and to go after Machado next offseason.
While I might not agree with it, I can understand an argument for not signing JD Martinez for what it's going to take to land him. And I'm 100% on board with not giving Hosmer anything close to what he's asking (I might even hesitate at half of it). But I cannot wrap my head around the argument some people are making for just waiting until next winter to address the power shortage in the lineup.

They have 2 seasons left of Chris Sale. That's it. He's not coming back after that unless Price opts out and frees up that money (which he won't). So they have two seasons to win a title before their chances of doing so are severely diminished.

Why would anyone be okay with just standing pat for one of those after a year in which the offense was dreadful?

27th in HR
26th in SLG
12th in OBP
23rd in OPS+

Yes, they were 10th in scoring despite that, but that's not a reason to think they don't really need to improve in those stats so much as a reason why we should expect serious regression in R/G. This offense needs help. JD Martinez may not be the best answer (I would disagree... I think he's clearly the best answer, and I think he's clearly an elite hitter) but they have to add power at the very least.

I could have have gotten behind something like Carlos Santana at the cost he was rumored at. Would even have been okay with the 3/60 he got, I suppose. I want nothing to do with Hosmer unless he gets down to that range, and he won't. But if they miss the boat on Martinez, they have to land one of the lesser 30 HR capable bats instead (Duda would probably be my choice).

I guess I can work myself into being okay with something like signing Jay Bruce and overpaying on Hosmer as a last ditch effort to fix the offense, but I wouldn't be happy about it. At least that would give them an overall upgrade on Moreland's bat (better OBP) with similar power and a power upgrade over JBJ in Bruce for probably similar overall production (OPS+), at a cost of less outfield defense. They could then use JBJ to trade for something else they need (maybe an elite setup man and a prospect).

But all of that is getting really convoluted. Just sign JD Martinez and accept that the back end of the deal will suck while they are likely still rebuilding anyway.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Why is Sale not coming back?

He seems to love it here and if you can carry Sale at his current rate and go dump another $50M/yr on JDM and Hosmer, you can float his extension in lieu of it.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Why is Sale not coming back?

He seems to love it here and if you can carry Sale at his current rate and go dump another $50M/yr on JDM and Hosmer, you can float his extension in lieu of it.
You aren't resigning Sale at 12.5 million a year. I don't care how much he loves it here. He'll get his 30 million a year, and if Price doesn't opt out, it won't be in Boston. And since Price was underwhelming in 2016 and hurt most of 2017, I see no reason to even hope he'll be opting out.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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You aren't resigning Sale at 12.5 million a year. I don't care how much he loves it here. He'll get his 30 million a year, and if Price doesn't opt out, it won't be in Boston. And since Price was underwhelming in 2016 and hurt most of 2017, I see no reason to even hope he'll be opting out.
Where did I say we would be able to resign Sale for $12.5M?

Sale $12.5M
JDM $30M
Hosmer $25M
= $ $67.5M

Sale $30M extension leaves them $37.5M to go after Harper or Machado or whomever, or start extending some kids. If they’re going to go over, I’m not sure they care all that much about by how much, but that shouldn’t mean throwing your hands up and say ‘fuck it, let’s blow it all now and who cares if it’s pissing money away?’
 

timlinin8th

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He seems to love it here and if you can carry Sale at his current rate and go dump another $50M/yr on JDM and Hosmer, you can float his extension in lieu of it.
Its not so much that Sale “wouldn’t” sign here, it is more that his price tag is going to exceed what David Price is making on this team now, and having two of that type of contract in your starting rotation leaves zero wiggle room for the rest of the roster. All of the B’s are going to start getting expensive as well.

This logic all changes if Price opts out, of course.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Its not so much that Sale “wouldn’t” sign here, it is more that his price tag is going to exceed what David Price is making on this team now, and having two of that type of contract in your starting rotation leaves zero wiggle room for the rest of the roster. All of the B’s are going to start getting expensive as well.

This logic all changes if Price opts out, of course.
But giving JDM $30M does leave them wiggle room?
 

timlinin8th

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Sale $30M extension leaves them $37.5M to go after Harper or Machado or whomever, or start extending some kids. If they’re going to go over, I’m not sure they care all that much about by how much, but that shouldn’t mean throwing your hands up and say ‘fuck it, let’s blow it all now and who cares if it’s pissing money away?’
You replied while I was, but Sale isn’t just getting $30M. Its going to be more than that. He’s probably more on the $37.5M side of your equation, leaving the $30M for everything else this team is going to have to address in short order.
 

chawson

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You aren't resigning Sale at 12.5 million a year. I don't care how much he loves it here. He'll get his 30 million a year, and if Price doesn't opt out, it won't be in Boston. And since Price was underwhelming in 2016 and hurt most of 2017, I see no reason to even hope he'll be opting out.
Of course you’re not extending him at $12.5M per. But there’s a fair chance we learn of someone’s extension (Betts, Sale, Bogaerts, maybe even Pomeranz) in April. It would help explain this inertia and DD’s pleas for “patience.”
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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Of course you’re not extending him at $12.5M per. But there’s a fair chance we learn of someone’s extension (Betts, Sale, Bogaerts, maybe even Pomeranz) in April. It would help explain this inertia and DD’s pleas for “patience.”
If they're extending any of those guys, why would they wait until April (unless the negotiations actually take that long)?
 

chawson

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If they're extending any of those guys, why would they wait until April (unless the negotiations actually take that long)?
Announcing it in April means it doesn’t affect this year’s AAV. I’m not clear on all the details, but it’s better for luxury tax purposes.

One reason to speculate they’ve extended Sale but haven’t announced it yet is that he’s reached out to work with 19-year-old Jay Groome in spring training.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Announcing it in April means it doesn’t affect this year’s AAV.

One reason to speculate they’ve extended Sale but haven’t announced it yet is that he’s reached out to work with 19-year-old Jay Groome in spring training.
I believe they closed that loophole with the last CBA didn't they?