Markelle Fultz, Year Three: He's back! Big....?

[nighthob]

TS% .611 vs .652
PER 15.7 vs 17.8
ORtg 112 vs 123
DRtg 105 vs 101

Their per 36 counting numbers are almost identical. Covington averages 1/2 more assist and steal a game, but turns it over more. Both have 17 points, 7 rebounds, 1 block.

The /100 stats of both players are similar, but one of them is doing this in a larger role as a 19 year old rookie on one of the best teams in the NBA and the other is doing it in a smaller role on a .500 team. So, yeah, Tatum’s better now and by next year we’ll all be laughing at this.

 

[Devizier]

this reminds me of the old corey maggettte versus paul pierce arguments from oh so long ago

 

[bowiac]

I'm not sure what the point of this comparison is, but I don't know that Tatum has a larger role than Covington does. I agree that any timespan beyond this season, I'd take Tatum.

 

[LondonSox]

Covington is 10th in real plus minus in the entire league (down from top 5) and 14th in defensive real plus minus.
But please continue your bullshit.

Tatum is likely to be the better player, but he is not now even including his unsustainable shooting.
Nothing is certain, esp as Covington has improved significantly every year.

I get you like your own players it's not impossible to understand reality despite liking your own players.

 

[luckiestman]

Covington is 10th in real plus minus in the entire league (down from top 5) and 14th in defensive real plus minus.
But please continue your bullshit.

Tatum is likely to be the better player, but he is not now even including his unsustainable shooting.
Nothing is certain, esp as Covington has improved significantly every year.

I get you like your own players it's not impossible to understand reality despite liking your own players.

Vucevic is better than Embiid? Interesting

 

[The Needler]

Tatum is better by dRTG, BPM, and win shares.

But what recommends Tatum over Covington to me is his consistency. Even in this, Covington's best season, he has been a horrendously streaky shooter. He just had a 6-game stretch where he shot 31.8% from the field, and 23% from 3. Tatum hasn't had a single two-game stretch where he's shot under 40% from the floor.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Covington is 10th in real plus minus in the entire league (down from top 5) and 14th in defensive real plus minus.
But please continue your bullshit.

RPM= not the be all and end all.

See Crowder, Jae, a similar player:

2015-16: 26th (+3.00)
2016-17: 20th (+3.89)
2017-18: 410th (-2.69)

 

[Euclis20]

Covington is 10th in real plus minus in the entire league (down from top 5) and 14th in defensive real plus minus.
But please continue your bullshit.

Tatum is likely to be the better player, but he is not now even including his unsustainable shooting.
Nothing is certain, esp as Covington has improved significantly every year.

I get you like your own players it's not impossible to understand reality despite liking your own players.

Beyond RPM, are there any other advanced stats that support Covington over Tatum right now? They are close to even in BPM and VORP, Tatum has a huge edge in WS, WS/48 and PER. All advanced stats have some blind spots (Is Kyle Korver better than both Simmons and Embiid? How about David West? Spencer Dinwiddie?) The argument that Tatum is better than Covington right now is hardly a homer's argument, it's a reasonable take (as is the opposite conclusion). Stating that Covington is obviously better because of RPM is a bit simplistic, to be kind.

Tatum's 3p shooting is certainly unsustainable, but here are Covington's year by year 3p%s: .364 (only 11 attempts)/.374/.353/.333/.427. That doesn't look like improvement, that looks like an outlier. Both players are due for some reversion, and that will hurt Covington (7.7 attempts per game) far more than Tatum (3.1 attempts per game).

 

[bowiac]

RPM= not the be all and end all.

See Crowder, Jae, a similar player:

2015-16: 26th (+3.00)
2016-17: 20th (+3.89)
2017-18: 410th (-2.69)

Without getting deep in the weeds here, I think this is an argument for Covington actually (an example of where good coaching/usage can help inflate a player's metrics, or poor coaching/usage can hurt them).

But I reiterate, I'm not sure why 2018 Covington vs. 2018 Tatum is under discussion.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

Without getting deep in the weeds here, I think this is an argument for Covington actually (an example of where good coaching/usage can help inflate a player's metrics, or poor coaching/usage can hurt them).

But I reiterate, I'm not sure why 2018 Covington vs. 2018 Tatum is under discussion.

What else would we discuss in a thread about Fultz?

 

[Sam Ray Not]

What else would we discuss in a thread about Fultz?

Brady v. Wentz?

 

[LondonSox]

I have no idea because you guys like circle jerks about your rookies I imagine.

 

[Scoops Bolling]

I get you like your own players it's not impossible to understand reality despite liking your own players.

Pot, meet kettle.

 

[LondonSox]

Yup Ben Simmons sucks.

 

[LondonSox]

Yup embiid sucks

 

[LondonSox]

Yup tj McConnell is trash like everyone said

 

[LondonSox]

Yup Covington is trash

 

[luckiestman]

Yup tj McConnell is trash like everyone said

Don’t lie, I love that guy

 

[Jimbodandy]

London, take some Robitussin.

Anyone arguing Covington over Tatum now has valid talking points. Same for the other side. If either could be loaned out for 50 games to the other teams, I'd wager that the choices would not be unanimous for either guy.

If you want to dump on those that are throwing Fultz out with the bath water, I understand that.

 

[bowiac]

If you want to dump on those that are throwing Fultz out with the bath water, I understand that.

I'm not sure I've seen that take yet fwiw.

But in the spirit of fanning the flames, Jayson Tatum will have a better career than Ben Simmons.

 

[DJnVa]

But I reiterate, I'm not sure why 2018 Covington vs. 2018 Tatum is under discussion.

Because this is a Markelle Fultz thread or something.

Perhaps Tatum vs. that dude on Sixers can be broken out?

 

[DJnVa]

I did see that Covington's dumb rotation towards Lonzo the other night allowed Ingram to get an open jumper to win.

 

[the moops]

I have no idea because you guys like circle jerks about your rookies I imagine.

When that rookie is shooting over 50% from three, a few tugs is recommended. I am sure you have had similar intimacies with Embiid and Simmons.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Yup Ben Simmons sucks.

Where did anyone say that?

Yup embiid sucks

And that?

Yup tj McConnell is trash like everyone said

And that? (Actually probably a lot of people, scratch this one)

Yup Covington is trash

And that?

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

London, who said anything about Simmons, Embiid or McConnell being trash? I think there is a lot of Covington love in this forum too (count me as one of his fans).

Back to Fultz, I want this kid to be good simply because it make the NBA better. And I totally believe that his absence now is due to conditioning issues and the 76ers taking it slow with their investment.

Finally, back to stats - I am sorry but comparing guys (other than what is happening right now) based on what amounts to a handful of games against the scope of an entire NBA career seems silly. If I were able to get the Celtics to make a trade of Tatum for Covington for just the rest of the season and then swap them back after the end, I would think long and hard about it. Tatum's shooting is likely to regress and, as a 19 year old rookie, he is also likely to hit a wall of sorts as the season wears on. Covington, on the other hand, is more likely to be an impact player as the playoffs roll around. Future seasons are another story altogether.

 

[zoolight.space]

Embiid, McConnell and Convington are not rookies.

 

[LondonSox]

London, who said anything about Simmons, Embiid or McConnell being trash? I think there is a lot of Covington love in this forum too (count me as one of his fans).

Back to Fultz, I want this kid to be good simply because it make the NBA better. And I totally believe that his absence now is due to conditioning issues and the 76ers taking it slow with their investment.

Finally, back to stats - I am sorry but comparing guys (other than what is happening right now) based on what amounts to a handful of games against the scope of an entire NBA career seems silly. If I were able to get the Celtics to make a trade of Tatum for Covington for just the rest of the season and then swap them back after the end, I would think long and hard about it. Tatum's shooting is likely to regress and, as a 19 year old rookie, he is also likely to hit a wall of sorts as the season wears on. Covington, on the other hand, is more likely to be an impact player as the playoffs roll around. Future seasons are another story altogether.

Which is basically what I said originally but whatever.

 

[snowmanny]

Most of the people on this board would have taken Fultz over Tatum, including me, though I understood the idea that Tatum was a really good shooter and taking a 6'9" guy who can really shoot makes a lot of sense.
He looked like a mid-range shooter - even in Summer League - so that seemed less valuable. Of course it turns out he has three-point range, he can drive like a veteran, he can defend, and he makes good decisions so I'm not going to apologize for being pretty excited about him going forward.

As for Fultz who the f knows? I'm guessing he is a starter for years and bugs the hell out of me in version 4 or 5 or whatever it is of the Celtics-Sixers rivalry, which to me is the true rivalry despite the fact that on those rare occasions when the 76ers win a title the Celtics always take it back the next year. I can't root for Fultz anymore because of that but I doubt he's a head case and I doubt he's got any physical deformity and I imagine he'll be just fine.

 

[LondonSox]

You want this to be a celtics only forum knock yourself out. Participating here has become a miserable experience, and I need positive experiences in my life as I battle various mental health issues.

So legitimately goodbye, enjoy your reddit style consensus only circle jerk.

 

[Rough Carrigan]

Oh, the irony.

 

[DJnVa]

Oh good lord.

 

[Spelunker]

So is that the process?

 

[snowmanny]

Well at least the eagles won.

 

[DJnVa]

On second thought, I'm sorry. If he's dealing with stuff, then we should be supportive. We all take this stuff very seriously at times, and he should enjoy his young, up and coming team. He should expect some grief on a Celtics board, however, so perhaps this isn't the best place for him now.

Good luck London.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

One of the best things about this forum, aside from the general civil tone, is that we have true NBA fans as well as fans of other teams besides the Celtics here (e.g. OKC and Clippers). I cannot imagine its easy with all the biased posters (present company included) but, I think we are generally as objective as we can be. In fact, I might argue that this is one of the most objective forums on this site.

As such, I would hope that London and others would stick around and continue post here. I also understand that some forums just aren't for certain posters so maybe that is the case here too.

 

[snowmanny]

Well I am in favor of generally being respectful of boundaries in other teams' threads, except the Jets, but a Fultz thread is bound to get a little (ok, a lot) Celtic-y because of the history of the pick.

That being said, it seems to me that being a fan of the Sixers right now is a top 10 team to be a fan of so nothing about it should be miserable. I am expecting many years of banter with LS and want it to be fun on all sides.

 

[southshoresoxfan]

I mean, a poster saying he’d rather have Covington over Tatum is accusing Boston fans of homerism? K.

 

[The Needler]

The Sixers are finally handling an injury appropriately and they are still being killed for it. Those guys can't ever win.

Fultz hasn't touched a ball in six weeks or had little/no physical activity during that time.....and you'd just throw him out into an NBA game without any shoulder progression guideline, basketball activity, or practice time? That's about as absurd as him playing earlier in the season.

It's not true that he hasn't touched a ball in six weeks. We saw video of him shooting left-handed on November 6, and we know he was participating in basketball and conditioning drills then. He was "cleared to start progressing toward full basketball activities" on November 19, and at that time, he had already "participated in passing and running drills while also involving himself with the team, feeding the ball to the Sixers' big men in the post during practice."

If he had little to no physical activity during that time, somebody should be fired. He had shoulder soreness in one arm. There is absolutely no reason why he wouldn't have been keeping his conditioning up, and it's clear from reports that he was.


http://www.sportstalkphilly.com/2017/11/sixers-provide-positive-update-on-markelle-fultz.html

 

[Tony C]

Brown said the Sixers have been cautious in allowing Fultz to do too much physical activity too soon.

"That's a slippery slope at times," Brown said. "He's had a great motor in trying to grow his conditioning in that regard, doing the same thing in the weight room. Picking the areas that you can continue to develop really an amazing basketball body.

http://scores.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/21722893/philadelphia-76ers-coach-brett-brown-holds-jon-gruden-film-sessions-markelle-fultz

doesn't sound at all like he's had little/no physical activity.

 

[tbrown_01923]

I'm not sure I've seen that take yet fwiw.

But in the spirit of fanning the flames, Jayson Tatum will have a better career than Ben Simmons.

okay Bowaic - knowing you are numbers centric, I wonder what you see in the numbers that suggests this?

 

[bowiac]

okay Bowaic - knowing you are numbers centric, I wonder what you see in the numbers that suggests this?

Just the advantage of being two years younger.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Well I am in favor of generally being respectful of boundaries in other teams' threads, except the Jets, but a Fultz thread is bound to get a little (ok, a lot) Celtic-y because of the history of the pick.

That being said, it seems to me that being a fan of the Sixers right now is a top 10 team to be a fan of so nothing about it should be miserable. I am expecting many years of banter with LS and want it to be fun on all sides.

Well said.

I wish I hadn't recommended robutissin. It must sometimes be frustrating being outnumbered, especially with other things going on outside the board.

Fwiw, I concur that Sixers fans have loads of reasons for optimism, as do Celtics fans. And there's room here for both.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

You want this to be a celtics only forum knock yourself out. Participating here has become a miserable experience, and I need positive experiences in my life as I battle various mental health issues.

So legitimately goodbye, enjoy your reddit style consensus only circle jerk.

I've enjoyed a lot of your posting here, especially during the simpler times before the exciting prospects we like to put under the microscope were drafted by our respective teams, but I can't imagine regularly going to a Philly sports message board with the general approach you take here and expecting anything other than a miserable experience. Thin skin and a propensity towards conflict-seeking masochism seems like a heavy cross to bear around here, so I get the decision to step away. The Sixers are set up for a helluva ride, Godspeed and TTP.

 

[DJnVa]

If Yankee fans can coexist on this board with us, Sixer fans should be fine.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I think when someone moves from "I am a fan of x team, here's my take" to "I am more objective than all you ___ team fans" they immediately move from being a valuable part of the board to being a problem (note that this is equally true of any Boston fans who claim unique objectivity).

That unfortunate shift has happened in the past with other posters in these non-baseball forums and I think we all would do well to watch for it in the future, because good posters get dug in and unproductive once the discussion ceases to be about our opinions and instead becomes about who is objective and isn't.

 

[lovegtm]

Just the advantage of being two years younger.

And the magical power of being able to make basketballs go into hoops from more than 6 feet away?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

You want this to be a celtics only forum knock yourself out. Participating here has become a miserable experience, and I need positive experiences in my life as I battle various mental health issues.

So legitimately goodbye, enjoy your reddit style consensus only circle jerk.

You are the biggest homer here and fail to see it. Good riddance. You are a miserable hypocrite.

 

[JCizzle]

And the magical power of being able to make basketballs go into hoops from more than 6 feet away?

I'm interested to see how teams defend him in the playoffs. I wonder if he'll get the full on disrespectful treatment that rondo would get (deservedly so) against the Lakers, for example.

 

[cheech13]

As an innocent bystander that doesn't have a rooting interest in Philly or Boston I think a lot of posters came down way too hard on Londonsox. He's very knowledgeable about basketball and while he loves his team he never really said anything wholly unreasonable (Covington over Tatum today may not be the popular opinion, but it is defensible). Everything's coming up Millhouse right know for the Celtics and that's made everyone a little overzealous in praising Kryie and Tatum. They deserve credit for how good they've been but I can see how that would be grating to an outsider, though, especially given how much everyone seemed to hate the Kyrie deal when it happened and the Tatum/Fultz sample size right now is barely existent.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

(Covington over Tatum today may not be the popular opinion, but it is defensible). .

It is defensible but he acts like it's a no brainer and that Covington is clearly better. If you prefer Tatum, you are obviously a homer even though him preferring 76ers players doesn't make him one.