Moncada ranked #1 overall by BA midseason update

alwyn96

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He's good.

Benintendi (#9) and Espinoza (#15) are pretty good too.

Devers (#41) and Kopech (#93) aren't too bad either.
 
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Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Fair enough. Seemed like a pretty big deal to me, though. I can't think of a time when anyone thought the Red Sox had the best overall prospect in the game.
It's a huge deal.
All the rankings are pretty amazing to me, actually. Benintendi with a meteoric rise, Espinoza at 15 at 18. Devers, the guy everyone seems to overlook, top 50, and Kopech, who has barely pitched, making the list.
 

alwyn96

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It's a huge deal.
All the rankings are pretty amazing to me, actually. Benintendi with a meteoric rise, Espinoza at 15 at 18. Devers, the guy everyone seems to overlook, top 50, and Kopech, who has barely pitched, making the list.
Devers surprises me the most. He really hasn't done much this year, but I guess he still looks good despite the numbers? I know he's young, but that's still nice. Apparently Kopech looks amazing but hasn't had much game time at all. Crazy.
 
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Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Help me out. What do you see? K-rate seems good, walks are up but he's in A+ ball. What else?
Per Speier:
Through 40 games, the 19-year-old hit just .180 with a .268 OBP and .293 slugging mark. Since May 24, he’s hitting .349 (second best in the Carolina League in that time) with a .388 OBP and .504 slugging mark to raise his line to .258/.322/.391.
 

pantsparty

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Help me out. What do you see? K-rate seems good, walks are up but he's in A+ ball. What else?
He started the season with a terrible BABIP (unclear how much was bad luck and how much was just not hitting the ball well, but it was down around like .150 or something ridiculous). Since the end of May he's been hitting really well.
 

FanSinceBoggs

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Devers surprises me the most. He really hasn't done much this year, but I guess he still looks good despite the numbers? I know he's young, but that's still nice. Apparently Kopech looks amazing but hasn't had much game time at all. Crazy.
Yeah, he isn't putting up huge offensive numbers but he is holding his own in high Single A as a 19 year old and that is pretty impressive (it is sometimes about projection more than numbers). He also doesn't have an excessive number of strikeouts, which can be a red flag.

It'll be interesting to see if they promote Devers to AA at the beginning of next season. Alternatively, he may start out in Salem again next season, with the idea that he will be promoted early on, assuming all goes well.
 

mauf

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Help me out. What do you see? K-rate seems good, walks are up but he's in A+ ball. What else?
He dropped from 18th in the preseason rankings to 41st now, so it's true that his 2016 season might be considered a disappointment. As BMHH notes, however, there's some cause for optimism that it was an adjustment period he has worked through (or maybe just a slump). Even if it's more than that, however, it's pretty impressive for a 19-year old infielder to be posting a league-average OPS in his first half-season in High-A ball. Devers probably doesn't have the high-end upside that Espinoza does, but he's significantly more likely than Espinoza to actually make it to Boston and have an impact.
 

alwyn96

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Per Speier:
Through 40 games, the 19-year-old hit just .180 with a .268 OBP and .293 slugging mark. Since May 24, he’s hitting .349 (second best in the Carolina League in that time) with a .388 OBP and .504 slugging mark to raise his line to .258/.322/.391.
That's 6ish good weeks, but it's all still early and it works for me. Plus he's young, like maufman says. Sounds good!

I don't think it's crazy that Moncada/Benintendi's performances in the last couple weeks (if they keep them up) could get them in Boston this year. That would be pretty aggressive, but what the hell.
 
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Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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That's 6ish good weeks, but it works for me. Plus he's young, like maufman says. Devers rules!

I don't think it's crazy that Moncada/Benintendi's performances in the last couple weeks (if they keep them up) could get them in Boston this year. That would be pretty aggressive, but what the hell.
If the Sox have any intention of bringing Moncada up this year, they're going to have to move him off of 2b soon.
 

alwyn96

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If the Sox have any intention of bringing Moncada up this year, they're going to have to move him off of 2b soon.
It'll be interesting to see what they do with him this month. In 2014 it seemed like they threw Betts into the OF without a ton of games there, but they weren't going hard at a playoff spot at that point.

EDIT: Looks like Betts played 33 games in CF and 4 games in RF in AAA, and he'd played a little in AA. That's not nothing. Plus, it was AAA v. AA. Might be tight for Moncada.
 
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Pilgrim

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My read on Devers is that the scouts are nuts about his all-fields power, but I'm pretty sure Salem is terrible for HR, so you've mostly got a 19 year old putting up nice K&BB numbers.

BA isnt out on a limb here, though. Hes a consensus top-20 prospect. I think Law had him #5.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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My read on Devers is that the scouts are nuts about his all-fields power, but I'm pretty sure Salem is terrible for HR, so you've mostly got a 19 year old putting up nice K&BB numbers.

BA isnt out on a limb here, though. Hes a consensus top-20 prospect. I think Law had him #5.
Yeah, Law loves his power
 

burstnbloom

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I know this has been beaten to death but seeing Austin Meadows at 10 hurts my heart. I expect Devers will take a big leap in the post season rankings now that he's trending upwards. I'd guess the big four will all be in the top 20 at year end and if Kopech pitches like he did this week for the rest of the year, he could move into the top 50.
 

joe dokes

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If the Sox have any intention of bringing Moncada up this year, they're going to have to move him off of 2b soon.
FWIW--Bogaerts played only a handful of games at 3B in AAA in 2013 before getting called up. In the end, it's unlikely that a switch like that results in a great-fielding 3Bman immediately. But I bet the coaches *can* tell pretty quickly if he will be adequate/non-disastrous.
 

BaseballJones

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I really hope DD doesn't trade either Moncada or Benintendi. The thought of Moncada, Benintendi, Bradley, Bogaerts, and Betts all playing together for years has me drooling.
 

Saints Rest

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I really hope DD doesn't trade either Moncada or Benintendi. The thought of Moncada, Benintendi, Bradley, Bogaerts, and Betts all playing together for years has me drooling.
It would be shocking, and borderline historic, for Moncada to be traded.

According to this article at MLB.com (http://m.mlb.com/news/article/159272618/dansby-swanson-among-top-prospects-ever-traded/?topicid=151437456), it's rare for anyone in the top-10 prospects to be traded. In this article that looks at such trades over the last 15 years, Wil Myers at #4 was the highest ranked at the time of the trade while Cameron Maybin was a couple years past his #3 ranking.

So I think it's safe to gauge that Moncada is probably safe, and that Benitendi is pretty safe.
 

Fishy1

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He has a nice car

What little chance Yoan Moncada had of blending in to his new community vanished three weeks ago when he showed up driving a BMW X6M Lumma widebody with a customized "YM" crest on the hood. Minor league towns don't usually see such big league wheels.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/49986/yoan-moncada-continues-to-stand-out-as-he-moves-through-minors
Nick Cafardo was bitching about this all the way back in February, and the Media forum goons were all over him for it:

2. Maybe it’s just my hang-up, but Red Sox prospect Yoan Moncada flaunting his expensive car collection in the parking lot of a Fort Myers hotel isn’t very becoming for a player who hasn’t played one inning in the major leagues. ...Moncada’s agent should be advising him that this isn’t a good look.
Not that you're bitching about it, of course.
 

benhogan

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If the Sox have any intention of bringing Moncada up this year, they're going to have to move him off of 2b soon.
I'm surprised they haven't started mixing in some games at 3rd, we should have an opening there next year, unless you think Panda gets his act together this off season. Maybe a few games in LF wouldn't hurt also.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Portland is only barely a "minor league town." Especially in summer we've got plenty of rich new yorkers tooling around in their sweet rides.

Moncada is already the most popular player on the team.
 

AlNipper49

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Nick Cafardo was bitching about this all the way back in February, and the Media forum goons were all over him for it:



Not that you're bitching about it, of course.
The word down here in Greenville is that the douche factor was very high with him upon arrival. They attribute a lot of his turnaround from a horrid first half to Drive coach Darren Fenster.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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It would be shocking, and borderline historic, for Moncada to be traded.

According to this article at MLB.com (http://m.mlb.com/news/article/159272618/dansby-swanson-among-top-prospects-ever-traded/?topicid=151437456), it's rare for anyone in the top-10 prospects to be traded. In this article that looks at such trades over the last 15 years, Wil Myers at #4 was the highest ranked at the time of the trade while Cameron Maybin was a couple years past his #3 ranking.

So I think it's safe to gauge that Moncada is probably safe, and that Benitendi is pretty safe.
Apologies to you because my criticism isn't aimed at you, but at the author. That article is garbage. "Trades of highly ranked prospects are super rare! But here's a half dozen that have happened in the last couple years...."

And why list their ranking after the trade? Noah Syndergaard's preseason rankings three seasons after he was moved means dick to the premise.
 

LondonSox

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Help me out. What do you see? K-rate seems good, walks are up but he's in A+ ball. What else?
Early in t he season, and I can't find where i had these stats, I'm sure they were on baseball reference but I can't find them. So I'm going by an old post I made.
As of end of May, his BABIP was 0.209 (vs his season low before being 331) and this despite 19%+ line drive rate.
He was walking more and driving the ball better and having a lot of bad luck. That is starting to normalise and so is his performance.
 

nvalvo

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Apologies to you because my criticism isn't aimed at you, but at the author. That article is garbage. "Trades of highly ranked prospects are super rare! But here's a half dozen that have happened in the last couple years...."

And why list their ranking after the trade? Noah Syndergaard's preseason rankings three seasons after he was moved means dick to the premise.
I disagree. All of the top-10 prospects since 2000 is something on the order of 160 prospects (something like because some guys will have made that list more than once before aging out). I'd imagine that that's a lower rate than, say, all prospects listed in the various Top 100 lists, but I'd love to actually see numbers to see if my intuition is well placed.

But I agree that they weren't necessarily setting the bar at the right place. You'll note that Maybin (3, 5, 6), Myers (4), Kazmir (4, 8) and Russell (5) are the only ones who peaked higher than 9. Prospects in the 9-30 bin (guys like Hanley Ramirez, Andrew Miller, Jesus Montero, Andy Marte, Trevor Bauer) seem to be dealt pretty frequently; the guys more highly regarded than that are dealt much more rarely, in the kinds of deals that we still talk about years later.

So, really, Dansby Swanson is more like at the high end of the kinds of trades that do happen pretty frequently.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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Julio Urias is also listed at #36.

Is there any doubt that if the Dodgers offered the Red Sox Urias for Moncada straight up that we would take that in a cocaine heartbeat? Not that it's going to happen or anything.

I am basically on board with moving Moncada for a young, cost-controlled ace, and by ace, I mean Quintana and not Gray.
 

j44thor

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Julio Urias is also listed at #36.

Is there any doubt that if the Dodgers offered the Red Sox Urias for Moncada straight up that we would take that in a cocaine heartbeat? Not that it's going to happen or anything.

I am basically on board with moving Moncada for a young, cost-controlled ace, and by ace, I mean Quintana and not Gray.
I certainly don't think it is a slam dunk trade. Urias will need to be protected for at least a couple more seasons innings wise (yet to break 100IP in a season) during which time Moncada could be putting up significantly higher WAR. Now if you want to talk about Benintendi for Urias (just 2 spots lower) then sign me up.
 

Hendu for Kutch

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Ya, give me the stud position player prospect over the stud pitcher prospect every day. The SP might have more value, but the flameout potential is just so much higher.

As mentioned, not only do you have to deal with an innings limit for probably at least the next two seasons, but what are the odds Urias misses at least a full season before he reaches free agency? 50%? Higher?
 

NWsoxophile

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I'm curious as to why they haven't moved him off 2B yet. Seems to me he should be starting to get some reps at 3B or even LF. As hot as he has been at the plate it doesn't seem impossible that he could make the Portland-Boston jump. Absent an injury to Pedey it won't be at 2B though at any time in the foreseeable future.
 

LondonSox

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I'm curious as to why they haven't moved him off 2B yet. Seems to me he should be starting to get some reps at 3B or even LF. As hot as he has been at the plate it doesn't seem impossible that he could make the Portland-Boston jump. Absent an injury to Pedey it won't be at 2B though at any time in the foreseeable future.
agreed for this season or next 3B is the obvious gap. LF has Beni of course
 

gammoseditor

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I wonder if they are considering putting Moncada at 1B. It's the same side of the infield he is on now and would be a quicker transition. Or maybe they want to leave the LF as a possibility in case they trade either Benintendi or JBJ.
 

JimD

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I'm curious as to why they haven't moved him off 2B yet. Seems to me he should be starting to get some reps at 3B or even LF. As hot as he has been at the plate it doesn't seem impossible that he could make the Portland-Boston jump. Absent an injury to Pedey it won't be at 2B though at any time in the foreseeable future.
Pedey hasn't played a full season since 2013 and has missed significant time in three out of the past six seasons. Keeping Moncada at 2B until they are absolutely forced to move him elsewhere isn't the worst strategy.
 

Scoots McBoots

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I wonder if they are considering putting Moncada at 1B. It's the same side of the infield he is on now and would be a quicker transition. Or maybe they want to leave the LF as a possibility in case they trade either Benintendi or JBJ.
Why would you stick somebody who's athletic enough to play second over at first? It seems like a waste.
 

NDame616

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Maybe because they don't want to move him and mess up his confidence like they did with X? Not everyone transitions from a position as well as Mookie.

However, Moncada appears to really be forcing the Sox hand here. They're going to have to make a decision soon (probably before this season ends) at what they want to do with him
 

Byrdbrain

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Um yeah Pedey isn't moving.
I posted this in the other Moncada thread(why are there 2?) but Hazen was on EEI the other day and he said that now is when they are going to start discussing moving him to other positions. They wanted him to establish himself in AA which I think all can agree he has done. Hazen said they are confident he could play pretty much anywhere on the diamond.
 

C4CRVT

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Can we all agree with that? I'm not so sure.

I don't follow the minors daily but his numbers against LHP in AA are (SSS) abysmal. I posted in the other thread about being worried about his K% in AA being 29%. But it's only 23.5% against RHP which seems like a number that can work for successful ML power hitters.

His K rate against LHP in AA is 52.9%. However, that's really only 17 plate appearances.
His K rate previous to that vs LHP is 22% in 191 PA

versus RHP, the K rate from A to AA is only slightly elevated (22.1% to 23.5%).

Compared to his career OPS splits (vs RHP/ LHP):
2015 Greenville .753/951
2016 Salem .971/.797
2016 Portland 1.118/.508

It's either noise/ small sample size (maybe he's faced a few elite LHPs in AA) or he's going to have a tougher time adjusting against tougher LH pitchers as he moves up.
 

Byrdbrain

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I wasn't advocating that he move up and that isn't how I took Hazen to mean it either. He just didn't want to introduce him to a new league and a new position at the same time. I agree he has work to do in AA especially against lefties.
 

Maximus

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I hope they move him to 3B or LF in AA soon. LF would be his best chance of some playing time in September. 3B now has Shaw with Aaron Hill as his backup/platoon partner this year. Next year 3B would be an option if they move Shaw to 1st and Hanley to DH. If DD signs Encarnacion for 1B/DH then Moncada would be blocked at 3B by Shaw unless DD trades Shaw.
 

rodderick

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I hope they move him to 3B or LF in AA soon. LF would be his best chance of some playing time in September. 3B now has Shaw with Aaron Hill as his backup/platoon partner this year. Next year 3B would be an option if they move Shaw to 1st and Hanley to DH. If DD signs Encarnacion for 1B/DH then Moncada would be blocked at 3B by Shaw unless DD trades Shaw.
If Moncada continues to develop in the way he has, he's not going to be blocked by Travis Shaw at 3B.