NY minor league prospect news (2016 edition)

jon abbey

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Callis has since tweeted that he has Clint Frazier at #26 and Blake Rutherford at #37, and those are his top three Yankee prospects.

Not a lot of news there, but slow time of year, so what the hell.
 

Wingack

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I wonder if anymore cracked the his top 50, though I guess it doesn't matter in the end. The top 7 or 8 guys in the system are going to wind up on the overall top 100.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, I think Judge, Mateo, Sheffield, Kaprielian are all locks for most top 100 lists, and Adams, Acevedo, Andujar, Fowler all have shots too, probably all four of them are in the 75-150 range or so. Abreu is in there too, plus Tate and McKinney were on most 2016 preseason top 100 lists, so aren't far away if their performance bounces back.
 

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So KLaw ranked the Yankees as No. 2 overall system behind Atlanta.

Here is what he had to say:

"I’m so glad something is finally going right for Yankee fans, who have been suffering for, like, seven whole years now, but this system is absolutely loaded.

Brian Cashman went bananas once he got the green light to turn the roster over, flipping two very good relievers for enormous packages that gave the Yanks three of their current top six prospects. The other three are all recent first-round picks, and the system is full of the products of the team’s drafts, a side benefit of the end of their trades of prospects for veterans to prop up the aging big-league roster.

The system just keeps on going, with tons of pitching depth, a passel of natural shortstops -- we need a better collective noun for that; a "belanger" of shortstops, perhaps -– who will end up playing all over the diamond, and a lot of outfielders who rake. Even Dermis Garcia, who isn’t among their 20 best prospects, has 80 raw power and finished second in the advanced-rookie Appalachian League in homers as an 18-year-old.

There’s no weakness here. They will trot out teams full of prospects at every level, and several of them will show up in the Bronx this year. I don’t know if Gleyber Torres is the new Jeter or James Kaprelian the new Pettitte, but I’ll take that bet."
 

Wingack

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He is also rolling out his Top 100 and today he posted 100-81. He has Justus Sheffield at 88.

He wrote:

Sheffield went to the Yankees in the Andrew Miller trade, which netted New York two top-100 prospects and filled a specific gap in the Yanks’ system for an upper-level left-handed starting pitcher prospect. Sheffield is a little undersized but is an excellent athlete and works from 92-95 mph. He complements that with a present plus changeup and fringy breaking ball, repeating his delivery well but occasionally slipping into a tendency to overthrow.

He threw well for the Yankees’ High-A affiliate after the trade and made one start in Double-A against the powerful Reading Fightin’ Phils lineup, punching out nine of the 19 batters he faced. So he’ll start 2017 in that higher level even though he doesn’t turn 21 until May. His stuff right now would play in the majors, although the lack of an average breaking ball limits his ceiling. If that doesn’t change, he should end up an average major league starter, with the potential for more if he develops a better third pitch.
 

jon abbey

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Gleyber Torres is MLB.com's #1 SS prospect, jumping up from 6th last season and jumping over a bunch of very top prospects. It's looking like Torres will be a top 3 or 5 prospect overall for just about everyone.

1. Gleyber Torres, Yankees
The recipient of a $1.7 million bonus out of Venezuela in 2013, Torres excelled in his first full pro season in '15 as he helped Class A Advanced Myrtle Beach win the Carolina League title at age 19. He continued to impress last season in his return to Myrtle Beach before joining the Yankees as their key return in the Aroldis Chapman deal in July, and then became the youngest Arizona Fall League MVP and batting champion (.403) in 25 years. Now 20, Torres boasts one of the highest offensive ceilings among prospects, with the potential to hit for a high average and deliver 20-plus homers from a premium position.

And Jorge Mateo is 8th, which still makes him probably a top 20 or 30 prospect overall at leas (last year their 8th SS prospect was #19 overall)t:

8. Jorge Mateo, SS/2B, Yankees
Mateo's stock took a hit in 2016 with his struggles in the Florida State League, and a two-week suspension for insubordination raised questions about his makeup. That being said, the 21-year-old still possesses a slew of high-end tools including top-of-the-scale speed and average hitting ability, although some question whether he can stick at shortstop in the long run.
 

Wingack

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Law has Judge at #44. Which I thinks means that five Yankees will land in Law's top 40 (Torres, Frazier, Rutherford, Kap and Mateo) unless he left Mateo entirely off his list.
 

Cesar Crespo

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How much did the AFL affect Torres's overall rating, anyway? I know he was top 40 last year, 19 years old and holding his own in A+ ball. He'd be pretty high up there regardless. He improved his walk rate, k rate, and power while moving up a level. As far as legit prospects go, he's 2-3 years ahead of where he should be. I'm buying.

I also don't give the Jorge Mateo love but I digress. He was in the 30 range last year and was awful this year. As far as legit prospects go, he's about on track age wise, maybe a bit younger. It's all projection with him. I'm not buying.

I get the average age of a AA player is much older than 22, but most of those guys older than 23 are just filler.

Edit: Keith Law had Mateo at 50 in his midseason rankings in July. They put less thought into those lists, but I could see Mateo being left off.
 

Cesar Crespo

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You may be right that he gets left off. But that would be pretty shocking. I would say most people still have Mateo ranked in the in the Yankees top 4.
it could be one of those things where Benintendi was considered the Redsox best prospect but Moncada (pre trade) was the best prospect in all of baseball. Sometimes the top 100 lists don't mesh with the individual team lists. So Maybe Mateo is 4th and 63rd overall while Judge is 5th and 44th. That would be quite a gap, though.
 

jon abbey

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Also Law likes to be unique, he did have Mateo as high as #25 overall at one point last year, but he could drop him out entirely possibly. More likely we'll see him tomorrow in the 21-40 range...
 

gammoseditor

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I'm not sure he likes to be unique. I think anytime you have one persons ranking and compare against a consensus there are going to be outliers. When I used to get the BA handbook they had individual top 50's that supported this.
 

jon abbey

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They raised Torres from a 55 overall to a 65, Moncada is the only other 65 so far, Benintendi probably added to that list tomorrow (for the brief time before he graduates), those seem like they will be the top three on many lists.
 

jon abbey

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That is really a loaded SS list, Mateo is still ahead of Franklin Barretto, the key piece Beane got from TOR for Donaldson, who played a bit in AAA last year and who doesn't turn 21 until next month.
 

jon abbey

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Three more Yankees in Law's top 30 with Torres still to come, looks like Mateo did indeed drop out of his top 100, but love seeing Rutherford and Kaprielian this high:

28. James Kaprielian, RHP, New York Yankees
Age: 23 (3/2/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 200
Top level: High-A | 2016: 87


Kaprielian came to spring training throwing fire, touching 97 mph regularly, a whole level of arm speed beyond what he had shown at UCLA. Then he carried it through four regular-season starts before his elbow barked and the Yankees shut him down -- for the entire season, as it turned out, only bringing him back for the Arizona Fall League. In his first outing there, he was throwing 94-97 in three dominant innings with a hard slider clocked anywhere from 82-89 mph, complemented with a string-puller changeup in the mid-80s. That’s three plus pitches from a guy who is now built like a brick house.

There’s a little effort to his delivery, although less than you’d expect given that stuff, and just a minimal leg kick to get his rhythm going, but I can’t see changing a thing now that he’s completely recovered from the injury. Had he done this all season last year, he’d be in the top 20. I’ve got him ranked here to reflect the greater risk of a catastrophic injury that I think he has compared to pitchers who have never missed this kind of time. But do not mistake the ranking for a lack of faith in Kaprielian the pitcher, who has ace probability commensurate with those near the top of the 100.

27. Clint Frazier, OF, New York Yankees
Age: 22 (9/6/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 190
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 72


Frazier was the headliner in the package of prospects going to the Bronx for Andrew Miller, having reached Triple-A as a 21-year-old after a year and a half of raking his way up from A-ball. He has absolutely electric bat speed that produces above-average power, probably never in the 30-homer range but certainly 15-20 on a consistent basis with high batting averages and a lot of doubles.

Frazier has also boosted his contact rates since a rough go of things in his first full year in pro ball, although I think his swing is so fast and hard that he can be overconfident and chase offspeed stuff, when he needs to learn to lay off. Frazier has played all over the outfield in pro ball, but he’s going to be pushed to a corner, more likely left, by faster and rangier players in center. Given how he’s hit to date, with consistently high BABIPs because he makes hard contact, he’s one of the best bets in the minors to hit .300+, and with moderate power and 50-60 walks a year that would make him at least an above-average regular.


22. Blake Rutherford, OF, New York Yankees
Age: 20 (5/2/97) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 195
Top level: Rookie | 2016: NE


Rutherford was a top five talent in the 2016 draft, but concerns about his age (he turned 19 a month before draft day), position (he’s going to be a corner outfielder) and signability dropped him to the Yankees’ pick at 18th overall, making him one of the biggest steals of the first round. Rutherford can flat-out hit, and he already has some power with a reasonable chance to be plus in the future. He spent most of his summer in the Appy League before an injury ended his season, hitting .382/.440/.618 in 100 plate appearances and posting the highest average and OBP of any teenager in the league.

Rutherford has a mature approach at the plate and a very clean swing, although he can roll over his front foot too often, which may make him vulnerable to lefties with better breaking stuff as he moves up the ladder. He’ll play center for now, but he’s not a major-league center fielder and I think he’ll ultimately end up in right. He’s so likely to hit that I have him stuffed on this list despite the positional concerns, and I think he’ll move quickly through the low minors so that draft-day concerns about his age disappear before this year is out.
 

jon abbey

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Benintendi and Swanson will both graduate in early April assuming they're healthy, so then Law's top 2 will both be NY shortstops, Rosario and Torres.
 

jon abbey

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Has there ever been a study done on whether or not SS is overrated on prospect lists? Because I feel like they are.
I think that prospect studies are especially hard as the landscape is constantly changing, certainly post-greenies. A random check back to the 2014 BA top 100 list shows the following SSs in the top 50:

Xander Bogaerts (2)
Javier Baez (5)
Carlos Correa (7)
Francisco Lindor (13)
Addison Russell (14)
Corey Seager (37)

Not a single dud there, plenty of duds or guys still waiting to break out at other positions.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Has there ever been a study done on whether or not SS is overrated on prospect lists? Because I feel like they are.
Kinda, but a large chuck of positional prospects start out at SS and move down the spectrum. The most athletically gifted guys are usually playing the SS position unless they are left handed, then CF.
 

jon abbey

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Copied from Snatch Catch at nyyfans, nice to see the respect for Adams and Andujar:

==============================

Pipeline's Top-100

#79 - Sheffield
#58 - Kaprielian
#47 - Mateo
#45 - Judge
#37 - Rutherford (Moniak #19)
#24 - Frazier
#3 - Torres

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB 3m3 minutes ago
Adams was in the 101-115 range for us. Has been lights out since he turned pro.

Matt Chapman, who ranked 6th on the top-10 3B list a few days ago, came in at #100. The writeup said that Andujar (7th on the 3B list) was a similar prospect, so it looks like he just missed.
 

jon abbey

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Got my BP Annual book today, interesting prospect rankings, they do a top 101 list:

#15 Gleyber Torres
#16 Clint Frazier
#43 Jorge Mateo
#49 Blake Rutherford
#52 Justus Sheffield
#58 James Kaprielian
#63 Aaron Judge
#82 Albert Abreu
#101 Tyler Wade

So nine guys, and still no Chance Adams or Miguel Andujar, plus Tate and McKinney made this list last year. That is crazy prospect depth.
 

Cesar Crespo

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It's already been mentioned, but Keith Law is the outlier when it comes to Mateo. Makes me wonder how many of these lists are just groupthink. I think he is about an equal prospect to a Luis Alexander Basabe, albeit different. A bit more speed (Basabe is fast himself), little less power, slightly better plate discipline, SS vs CF, although Mateo may end up in CF too. Basabe has been one year younger than Mateo at every level too, though. Guys that could be in the 80-150 range and are mostly interchangeable in that range.

Of course, both of them have the talent to be a top 20 prospect next year, and ridiculously high ceilings. I wonder why Mateo ranked so much higher than Basabe, though. The 81 sb is eye popping, but at that level, guys like Garin Cecchini can steal 50 bases on instincts alone. The 36 sb at High A definitely suggest the ability to steal is real, but the 15 cs suggests that 81 number was mostly inferior competition. (82/99 in 15, 36/51 in 16) The triples, as well. Mateo has a higher floor, so maybe that's part of it too.

edit: Basabe has also only been playing baseball in 2011 at age 15. On his 16th birthday in 2012, he was signed to the Redsox along with his twin brother. He had only 1 year of experience before being assigned to the DSL. What he's been able to do since is pretty absurd on the face of it. His ceiling is All star CF, his floor is never making it out of A+ or AA.
 
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jon abbey

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Basabe isn't mentioned at all in the book, not even in the additional players section, although they always tend towards too many washed up veterans and not enough impact youngsters. Boston has Benintendi at 3, Devers at 13, and Groome at 29, I think that's it.
 

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Basabe isn't mentioned at all in the book, not even in the additional players section, although they always tend towards too many washed up veterans and not enough impact youngsters. Boston has Benintendi at 3, Devers at 13, and Groome at 29, I think that's it.
I think you're looking at the wrong Sox team for Basabe.
 

jon abbey

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Oh, good point. He still isn't in their top 101, but he does have a full profile in the CWS section.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Basabe isn't mentioned at all in the book, not even in the additional players section, although they always tend towards too many washed up veterans and not enough impact youngsters. Boston has Benintendi at 3, Devers at 13, and Groome at 29, I think that's it.
He's mentioned as you noted, but that's kind of my point. Mateo and Basabe are both great athletes who are very raw. Basabe has outperformed Mateo at every level despite being younger yet isn't in the top 100 and Mateo is in the top 50. The strikeouts are a real concern though. 25.7% at A ball as a 19 year old, Mateo was at 19.6% in A ball, albeit at 20 years old. This year in A+, Mateo's k rate was 21.3. Good news about Basabe is he cut his strikeout rate during the 2nd half a considerable margin (21.8% in 255 2nd half PA, 29.2% in 224 1st Half PA) while slashing .299/.357/.498. In the first half, he slashed .222/.293/.397.


edit: Sam Travis isn't mentioned?
 
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jon abbey

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People think Mateo is the fastest runner in the minors, Billy Hamilton speed at SS, that he has a potential plus-hitting tool, and that he could play competent SS. Of course at some point the reality has to match the potential, last year really hurt him but he is still quite young.

Sam Travis isn't mentioned?
He is not in the top 101, but he gets a writeup.
 

jon abbey

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I mean, Chance Adams dominated the Eastern League last year despite being 21 for most of the season, but still he hasn't cracked any top 100 lists. He had way better numbers than Lucas Giolito in the same league, and they are almost exactly the same age (please note: I am not saying that Adams>Giolito, just that results and prospect status don't always make sense together).

Also we see all the time guys without high expectations come up and be great, David Robertson is one recent case I can think of, and of course highly touted prospects end up as duds (Dustin Ackley, ahem). All of this is in large part a way to kill time between contending teams or in the offseason, but I'm still pretty excited to see how the next few years in the Bronx shake out.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I get they all develop at different ages but they aren't in the same ballpark. Their age 20 seasons at A ball are remarkably similar though.

Mateo .278/.345/.392 82sb 17cs 19.6% K 8.6% BB
Hamilton .278/.340/.360 103sb 20cs 21.8% K 8.5% BB

At age 21 in A+ (and in Hamilton's case A+ and AA), that's not the case at all.

Mateo .254/.306/.379 36sb 15cs 21.3% K 6.5% BB
Hamilton .311/.410/.420 155sb 37cs 18.7% K 14.2% BB combined A+/AA
Hamilton's AA line was .286/.406/.383 with 51sb/16cs in 50 games (213PA). 20.2% K 16.9% BB

Maybe Mateo hits his stride later but it's hard to see a guy who went 36/51 in SB over the course of 113 games in A+ ever being as deadly on the basepaths as a guy who stole 51/67sb in 50 games at AA. Hamilton is a rare breed I'd compare no one to.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, he had a very bad year, Law obviously factors that in more than others. I have no real opinion either way, just that he's still really young and obviously an exceptional athlete.
 

Wingack

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Got my BP Annual book today, interesting prospect rankings, they do a top 101 list:

#15 Gleyber Torres
#16 Clint Frazier
#43 Jorge Mateo
#49 Blake Rutherford
#52 Justus Sheffield
#58 James Kaprielian
#63 Aaron Judge
#82 Albert Abreu
#101 Tyler Wade

So nine guys, and still no Chance Adams or Miguel Andujar, plus Tate and McKinney made this list last year. That is crazy prospect depth.
Gleyber lower on this list than others. Any reason why?
 

jon abbey

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They don't factor in a few weeks in the Arizona League as much as other people? This isn't science.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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Yeah, there is a lot of helium with Gleyber Torres. At the same time, he's a top 20 prospect even if you ignore the AFL.
 

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I'm happy with anyone in the top 20. I can't imagine there is really any degree of certainty when you're splitting hairs between someone who performed well in a league but doesn't have as great a set of tools and someone with great tools that didn't put up the numbers. Then throw injuries into the mix. I enjoy these lists for the writeups more than the rankings.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, it's a strange list, especially given BA's own midseason list from last year, Sheffield's drop especially is hard to understand:

Now:

5) Torres
39) Frazier
45) Rutherford
85) Mateo
87) Kaprielian
90) Judge
91) Sheffield

2016 midseason update:

19) Mateo
21) Frazier
27) Torres
42) Judge
69) Sheffield
99) Kaprielian
NR) Rutherford
 

Cesar Crespo

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Pretty much every publication will tell you that their midseason lists aren't an indicator of their offseason lists. They have far less time to write them up and take too much stock into performance to date. Plus with BA specifically, it could be a different person in charge of the lists.
 

jon abbey

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jon abbey

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So we already heard that Severino worked some with Pedro in the offseason, now it turns out that Domingo Acevedo (6'7" 22 year old SP who sits 96-100 and has hit 103) did some work with El Duque (one of my few favorite NY pitchers ever) this winter:

"El Duque (Orlando Hernandez) worked with me in Miami with some mechanical stuff. How to control the slider, how to better my delivery every pitch, and how to finish my pitches every time. "

http://pinstripedprospects.com/pinstriped-profile-greg-weissert-2-19267