NY rotation 2016

[jon abbey]

Time to start this one, everyone knows the projected five man rotation, but I always find it interesting to keep an eye on 6-8 or even 6-10, usually most or all of them get their shot at some point over the long season. So here's where I think NY stands coming into camp:

Tanaka
Pineda
Eovaldi
Severino
Sabathia

Nova
Mitchell
Cessa

That's it for guys on the 40 man roster, after that it's probably AAAA replacement level guys and prospects probably pushed prematurely (Lail, Jordan Montgomery, Kaprielian, Chance Adams, Degano, Drew Finley*), yay for alliteration.

So that's an educated guess at the pecking order coming into spring training, I'd say Pineda/Eovaldi/Severino are pretty interchangeable at 2-4. A couple of injuries to the top 6 guys (knock on wood) would open things up pretty quickly for any prospects with dominant results, especially since I think they will likely need Mitchell as the second RH in the pen. Kaprielian is the guy everyone wants to see, whether it's 2016 or 2017.

*All six of whom are in the RAB current top 30 Yankee prospect list, each profiled here:

http://riveraveblues.com/2016/02/2016-preseason-top-30-prospects-132446/

 

[Wingack]

It is potentially a strong top 4 if they can all stay healthy. On the bright side, the top 4 are all quite young which will hopefully help keep them healthy.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Nova is apparently looking healthier than last year. Between him and CC, you'd hope to get a few quality innings but if (read: when) even one of the top 4 guys miss a significant chunk, it's going to be scary having those two at the backend.

 

[jon abbey]

Dunno, I'm oddly optimistic about CC, who maybe finally figured out how to succeed with his current array of stuff down the stretch last season.

 

[terrynever]

Tanaka pitched in the rain today, gave up 7 hits (6 singles) in 4 innings along with 1 run to the Phillies. This split-squad game was called due to lightning in fifth inning. It was played in Clearwater. Girardi managed the other game in Tampa that was also shortened by rain. Afterwards, he remained noncommittal about his Opening Day starter. Tanaka was throwing around 91 today in the parts I watched. I don't blame him for not amping it up in those conditions.

ESPN story linked below. My favorite part is where the writer suggests that if Tanaka isn't ready for Opening Day, CC or Nova would take his place.

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/yankees/post/_/id/91580/yankees-still-not-entirely-sure-about-masahiro-tanaka

NYDN's Mark Feinsand had a more optimistic take from Larry Rothschild, who says Tanaka "dialed it up." Rothschild was actually at the Tanaka game.

 

[jon abbey]

My impression is that Girardi/Rothschild are being a bit dumb with the Tanaka situation. Obviously no one wants to see him hammered on Opening Day, but just as obviously, he knows how to best get himself ready for the 162 game grind, which may not involve being a hundred percent on Opening Day. And it's not like they're going to score any runs off Keuchel anyway...

 

[terrynever]

My impression is that Girardi/Rothschild are being a bit dumb with the Tanaka situation. Obviously no one wants to see him hammered on Opening Day, but just as obviously, he knows how to best get himself ready for the 162 game grind, which may not involve being a hundred percent on Opening Day. And it's not like they're going to score any runs off Keuchel anyway...

Do you mean purposefully dumb? Or perhaps coy is a better word. I have no problem with bringing Tanaka along slowly until the weather warms up. Seems similar to last season. But let's not kid anyone about his ceiling. Tanaka pitched like a 3 last year. Severino and Pineda have better stuff. It is too early to put pressure on Severino and Pineda might wilt under the pressure so it just makes sense to act like Tanaka is a No. 1, even if he isn't.

 

[jon abbey]

I mean unintentionally, old-school baseball-style dumb. It reminds me a little of Boston dealing with Matsuzaka in the early days, Japanese pitchers often develop different ways of doing things before they get to the US, and forcing them to do things the way that a coach or manager thinks they should just seems counterproductive and ignorant to me.

 

[jon abbey]

But let's not kid anyone about his ceiling. Tanaka pitched like a 3 last year.

He led the AL in WHIP among pitchers who threw 150+ innings, ahead of Keuchel, Kluber, Price, and everyone else:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/league/al/sort/WHIP/order/false/minip/140

 

[terrynever]

He led the AL in WHIP among pitchers who threw 150+ innings, ahead of Keuchel, Kluber, Price, and everyone else:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/league/al/sort/WHIP/order/false/minip/140

Lovely. The number that sticks out to me with Tanaka is 154 innings. Is he the Yankees' Buchholz?

 

[jon abbey]

He averaged over 200 innings the three years before coming to the US (including 30 complete games), so no.

 

[jon abbey]

Well, shockingly little help in the AAA rotation if NY needs it, clearly Nova and/or Cessa would be first up if needed:

"Chad Green, Kyle Haynes, Tyler Webb-Nick Rumbelow, Anthony Swarzak and Tyler Olson is the SWB rotation. "