NY rotation 2017

jon abbey

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I'm starting this way way too early, but with the positive developments from Mitchell (impressive season debut) and Green (doesn't need surgery) today, I want to make the case that NY doesn't need to sign a SP to a big league deal this offseason, assuming of course that no one blows their arm out between now and spring training. As of now, I think this is where they stand:

Tanaka (can opt-out after 2017)
Pineda (FA after 2017)
Sabathia (FA over 2017)

Then there are a bunch of candidates for spots 4-9, Cessa, Mitchell, Green, Jordan Montgomery and Chance Adams in some order. Severino should probably start in the AAA rotation and see if he can get back to his 2015 form, at least we know now he can be a dominant multi-inning reliever at the minimum.

After those guys, you have some very promising arms probably a year or two farther away, Sheffield, Acevedo, Kaprielian.

So if Cashman wants to add an experienced arm as AAA filler, OK, but he should not add anyone who can't be sent down if needed. To me 2017 is about seeing what you have in as many of the above guys as you can, since the 2018 rotation is basically entirely up for grabs, depending on what happens with Tanaka. Ideally they'll trade Pineda at some point also and free up another audition spot every five days.
 

jon abbey

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Bumping...

Well, happily Cashman agreed with me and NY didn't add any rotation depth from outside of the organization in the offseason, unless you count Jon Niese who they released last week and then re-signed to a minor league deal, he will stay in Florida and try to build arm strength.

So today NY named their 4th starter to start the season (Severino) and seemingly narrowed the candidates for 5th starter to Montgomery and Green, who are lined up to pitch on the same day in AAA and AA, two starts each before choosing one to start for NY on the 16th.

So here is my current guess at the rotation pecking order, the minor league ones should sort themselves out a lot more in the next few weeks:

Tanaka
Sabathia
Pineda
Severino
Montgomery/Green

(Mitchell/Warren in the big league bullpen)

Green/Montgomery
Cessa
Adams
Enns
Herrera

Montgomery and Adams aren't on the 40 man roster yet, everyone else there is. They are trying Barbato in the AAA rotation also, but I'm not slotting him in until I see a little length (that's what she said), also after this is the wave of prospects like Sheffield, Kaprielian, Abreu, Acevedo, but those guys would be moving fast to be a factor this year.
 

jon abbey

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The AAA rotation still isn't fully clear as far as I know, but the AA rotation to start the year seems to be set:

Chad Green
Chance Adams
Justus Sheffield
Domingo German
Yefry Ramirez

2016 minor league numbers:

Green: 1.52 ERA, 94 innings (AAA)
Adams: 2.33 ERA, 127 innings (A+/AA)
Sheffield: 3.09 ERA, 125 innings (A+/AA)
German: 3.08 ERA, 49 innings (A/A+) (coming back from April 2015 Tommy John surgery, he was the other player in the Prado and Phelps for Eovaldi and German trade)
Ramirez: 2.82 ERA, 124 innings, (A/A+)

It is not easy to break into NY's minor league rotations right now, Adams would be at AAA or the majors almost anywhere else, after dominating AA hitters last year (.145 BAA).
 

jon abbey

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Montgomery and Chad Green both now pitching in the same game for class A Tampa on Thursday because of bad weather in the NE, to make sure they get their innings in.
 

jon abbey

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Montgomery's half of the A ball game is done, one unearned run on a walk/passed ball/single, but a ton of strikeouts (as you'd expect facing A ball hitters):

5 3 1 0 1 9

Green in now to start the 6th, Tampa is down 1-0.
 

jon abbey

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Green's line was 4 2 1 1 0 5, but he gave up a HR in the 9th to lose 2-1. Both of these two will get another minor league start before NY picks one to start on the 16th.
 

jon abbey

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So Montgomery wins the job as the 5th starter, pretty impressive to pass four guys ahead of him coming into camp, especially since he was the only one not on the 40 man.

So with minor league seasons started and NY's rotation finally set, here is my latest attempt at the rotation pecking order:

Tanaka
Sabathia
Pineda
Severino
Montgomery

(Mitchell/Warren in the big league bullpen)

Green
Cessa
Barbato

Those three are all on the 40 man, so guys like Enns and Adams are behind them for now. Also Green/Cessa will be a constant competition, seven shutout innings for Cessa tonight in his season debut in AAA. Barbato is being stretched out for the first time since the low minors in 2013, he lasted four innings in his first start this week.
 

jon abbey

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The previously DFAd Barbato was just traded to Pittsburgh for a player to be named later or cash, and Enns is hurt and shut down for at least a month or so, so AAA has some holes in their rotation, presumably Chance Adams will be promoted to fill one of those.
 

jon abbey

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Chance Adams finally promoted to AAA, he has been such a fast mover since being picked in 2015, 20-2 with an even 2.00 ERA in 197.2 innings over four levels already, AAA will be his 5th, that it works against him. On pure merit, he is probably NY's 5th or 6th best SP already, but he doesn't need to be protected on the 40 man yet next winter, which works against him coming up pre-September.
 

jon abbey

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So with minor league seasons started and NY's rotation finally set, here is my latest attempt at the rotation pecking order:

Tanaka
Sabathia
Pineda
Severino
Montgomery

(Mitchell/Warren in the big league bullpen)

Green
Cessa
Barbato
Update on this a month later, again just my best guess. Barbato is gone and Warren seems to be in the bullpen for good:

Tanaka
Severino
Pineda
Montgomery
Sabathia

Mitchell
Green
Cessa

Adams might be better than all three of those guys but will really have to make it obvious for reasons just discussed, and someone to watch is Ronald Herrera, who got a late start to the season but has been great in all three of his starts in AA so far, he just turned 22 and is also already on the 40 man. None of Mitchell/Green/Cessa have impressed this year yet (I'm sure partly from being jerked around, Green was incredible in AAA last year plus that one start against TOR), Herrera and/or Adams could jump them all quickly if they keep it up.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=622703#/career/R/pitching/2017/ALL
 

DanoooME

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What's the deal with Tanaka? He's given up 13 HR already in 48 IP. His walk rate is up. Is he hiding an injury or something?
 

jon abbey

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I'm not sure how many Yankee fans have heard of Ronald Herrera but he might be NY's 6th starter right now. If NY needed a start from someone else, they probably go to Green or Mitchell for 50 pitches but if they want someone stretched out, Herrera might be the current pick. He is a 22 year old Venezuelan they got from SD for Jose Pirela. He's already on the 40 man (this is what might put him ahead of Chance Adams) and got a late start to the season, but has now been great in all five AA starts, 5-0 with a 1.47 ERA.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=622703#/career/R/pitching/2017/ALL
 

jon abbey

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NY has a ton of guys pitching very well in the minors right now, so I thought I'd assemble a list of the current rotation for the top three minor league teams, in part so I can reference it myself as the season goes on. Starred players are the most touted prospects, also I've ordered each five in rough order of potential:

AAA: *Chance Adams, Luis Cessa, Domingo German, Caleb Smith, Brady Lail
AA: *Domingo Acevedo, *Justus Sheffield, Yefry Ramirez, Ronald Herrera, Josh Rogers
A: *Albert Abreu, *Ian Clarkin, *Zach Littell, Taylor Widener, Erik Swanson

They have other guys like Kaprielian, Dillion Tate, Nolan Martinez and Drew Finley who are in their top 30 prospect list on mlb.com but have yet to pitch this year. The above list only includes guys who are healthy and pitching now.
 

jon abbey

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NY's 5 starters have made every start so far this year, but tomorrow NY wants to bump Tanaka to Monday's game against the Angels (so he doesn't have to face the Orioles yet again), so they are using a 6th starter for the first time, and it will be the major league debut for Domingo German, who came over in the Prado/Phelps for Eovaldi/German deal with Miami a few years ago. He had Tommy John surgery in early 2015 and hadn't pitched above high A before this year. He hasn't been amazing in the minors, but he is already on the 40 man and they need to test these guys and see what they have so they can make more informed 40 man decisions this winter.
 

jon abbey

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I'm not sure how many Yankee fans have heard of Ronald Herrera but he might be NY's 6th starter right now. If NY needed a start from someone else, they probably go to Green or Mitchell for 50 pitches but if they want someone stretched out, Herrera might be the current pick. He is a 22 year old Venezuelan they got from SD for Jose Pirela. He's already on the 40 man (this is what might put him ahead of Chance Adams) and got a late start to the season, but has now been great in all five AA starts, 5-0 with a 1.47 ERA.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=622703#/career/R/pitching/2017/ALL
Herrera called up today, straight from AA. I don't think this is for the rotation spot (I think German or maybe Cessa will get that later), but it's for a potential long guy the next few days if needed.
 

jon abbey

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Yep, Herrera back down after throwing 2 innings last night, CC onto the DL, and German and Cessa both back up. Cessa will get the start this week, hopefully German gets a few chances this time. Last Sunday he pitched 2.2 scoreless innings against BAL and his average sinker was 98.2 (!).
 

jon abbey

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I didn't see that game, but didn't Smith really fade in his third inning?

Neither are good answers, I think Cashman may try to spin Betances into two young SPs from someone, like a better version of his Justin Wilson to DET for Cessa/Green, including one who is ready to get a shot in that rotation spot now. I don't think Adams is quite ready and neither are the other top guys, so one guy at AAA and one guy lower down would be a good fit. Maybe he could get the Dodgers and Astros into a bidding war...
 

jon abbey

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I'm updating the current rotation for the minor league teams, after trades and promotions. As before, starred players are the most touted prospects, also I've ordered each five in rough order of potential (and I'm ignoring Jordan Montgomery, who is in AAA only to keep innings down):

AAA: *Chance Adams, Domingo German, Luis Cessa, Caleb Smith, Brady Lail
AA: *Domingo Acevedo, *Dillon Tate, Brody Koerner, Daniel Camarena, Will Carter
A: Taylor Widener, Adonis Rosa, Erik Swanson, Brian Keller

Top prospects in lower league rotations: *Freicer Perez, *Jorge Guzman, *Matt Sauer

On the DL (not arm issues): *Justus Sheffield, *Albert Abreu, Ronald Herrera, Josh Rogers

There's rarely much info around about minor league DL stints, but Abreu has been out for two months, it'd be nice if he could get a few more innings in before the season ends.

NY has a ton of guys pitching very well in the minors right now, so I thought I'd assemble a list of the current rotation for the top three minor league teams, in part so I can reference it myself as the season goes on. Starred players are the most touted prospects, also I've ordered each five in rough order of potential:

AAA: *Chance Adams, Luis Cessa, Domingo German, Caleb Smith, Brady Lail
AA: *Domingo Acevedo, *Justus Sheffield, Yefry Ramirez, Ronald Herrera, Josh Rogers
A: *Albert Abreu, *Ian Clarkin, *Zach Littell, Taylor Widener, Erik Swanson

They have other guys like Kaprielian, Dillion Tate, Nolan Martinez and Drew Finley who are in their top 30 prospect list on mlb.com but have yet to pitch this year. The above list only includes guys who are healthy and pitching now.