I'm starting this way way too early, but with the positive developments from Mitchell (impressive season debut) and Green (doesn't need surgery) today, I want to make the case that NY doesn't need to sign a SP to a big league deal this offseason, assuming of course that no one blows their arm out between now and spring training. As of now, I think this is where they stand:
Tanaka (can opt-out after 2017)
Pineda (FA after 2017)
Sabathia (FA over 2017)
Then there are a bunch of candidates for spots 4-9, Cessa, Mitchell, Green, Jordan Montgomery and Chance Adams in some order. Severino should probably start in the AAA rotation and see if he can get back to his 2015 form, at least we know now he can be a dominant multi-inning reliever at the minimum.
After those guys, you have some very promising arms probably a year or two farther away, Sheffield, Acevedo, Kaprielian.
So if Cashman wants to add an experienced arm as AAA filler, OK, but he should not add anyone who can't be sent down if needed. To me 2017 is about seeing what you have in as many of the above guys as you can, since the 2018 rotation is basically entirely up for grabs, depending on what happens with Tanaka. Ideally they'll trade Pineda at some point also and free up another audition spot every five days.
Tanaka (can opt-out after 2017)
Pineda (FA after 2017)
Sabathia (FA over 2017)
Then there are a bunch of candidates for spots 4-9, Cessa, Mitchell, Green, Jordan Montgomery and Chance Adams in some order. Severino should probably start in the AAA rotation and see if he can get back to his 2015 form, at least we know now he can be a dominant multi-inning reliever at the minimum.
After those guys, you have some very promising arms probably a year or two farther away, Sheffield, Acevedo, Kaprielian.
So if Cashman wants to add an experienced arm as AAA filler, OK, but he should not add anyone who can't be sent down if needed. To me 2017 is about seeing what you have in as many of the above guys as you can, since the 2018 rotation is basically entirely up for grabs, depending on what happens with Tanaka. Ideally they'll trade Pineda at some point also and free up another audition spot every five days.