Only God Can Judge Judge

jon abbey

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I'm hesitant to include BP things here, although they have been showing clips on MLBN's daily roundup show, opposing players evidently make a point to watch his BP, and David Cone can't stop raving about how he keeps hitting balls in BP to places he's never seen before. The one above, Cone was saying that he played in Toronto for a few years, and he never saw anyone hit a ball where Judge did.
 

mauidano

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Judge made a helluva running, diving and sliding catch today in the Jays game. So the guy can flash leather too. BTW, that was what the Tri-State area was feeling when the ground shook like an earthquake.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, if you go back a page or so, I linked one of the best catches I've seen from anyone this year, full sprint back towards right-center and catching the ball in a full dive that ended up on the warning track.

Katie Sharp‏ @ktsharp 20m20 minutes ago
Hits with Exit Velo of 116+ MPH This Season:

Aaron Judge 5
Rest of MLB 6
 

Marciano490

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Dude just got hit by a pitch, acted like it didn't touch him, stood in and hit a two run double instead.
 

Madmartigan

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What's the optimum launch angle for achieving max distance and how far would that ball have gone? Math people?
 

terrynever

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This is what it was like to watch Mantle in his prime. You did not miss his ABs because you might miss one of Mick's major bombs.
 

Murderer's Crow

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LOL

I'd try to say something more appropriate and not gamethread. Good pitch, opposite field. Yes, that's a Yankee Stadium HR but come on. This is just awesome.
 

terrynever

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At some point, Judge will cool off. His timing will get out of sync. It happens to everyone. What we are seeing right now is what Judge looks like when everything is clicking, against mediocre to sub-par major league pitching. And this Orioles staff right now, outside of Bundy, is awful.
 

VORP Speed

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Going into today's game, Judge's BAbip was .422. Rod Carew holds the season high mark for BAbip since 1945 with a .408 mark, unless someone broke it in 2014-2016. I don't post this to rain on anyone's parade. I post this because I think he has a chance to break that .408 mark.

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/the-ten-highest-babips-since-1945/
For years, people around here have enjoyed tossing around BAbip as a proxy for luck, and while there is some component of that, it's also a measure of quality of contact. Judge tears the cover off the ball consistently so it's no surprise his BAbip is high. The only player in the league with a higher average exit velocity is Miguel Sano....with a BAbip of .439
 

Murderer's Crow

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At some point, Judge will cool off. His timing will get out of sync. It happens to everyone. What we are seeing right now is what Judge looks like when everything is clicking, against mediocre to sub-par major league pitching. And this Orioles staff right now, outside of Bundy, is awful.
Sure, today. He's been doing this all season, though.
 

Cesar Crespo

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For years, people around here have enjoyed tossing around BAbip as a proxy for luck, and while there is some component of that, it's also a measure of quality of contact. Judge tears the cover off the ball consistently so it's no surprise his BAbip is high. The only player in the league with a higher average exit velocity is Miguel Sano....with a BAbip of .439
Right. Speed also plays a part.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Judge has been pitched to, and retired, by pitchers who make their pitches. Not today, not lately.
I'm confused. I'm not Michael Kaying this and saying he's Mickey Mantle. I'm just pointing out that to say he's doing this against mediocre pitching is ignoring that he's been doing this all season. Of course he's going to whiff against good pitching. I just don't know how that statement means anything unless you think he only hits bad pitching.
 

jon abbey

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4-4 today has him at least temporarily leading all three Triple Crown categories, .344 with 21 HRs and 47 RBIs.
 

terrynever

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I'm confused. I'm not Michael Kaying this and saying he's Mickey Mantle. I'm just pointing out that to say he's doing this against mediocre pitching is ignoring that he's been doing this all season. Of course he's going to whiff against good pitching. I just don't know how that statement means anything unless you think he only hits bad pitching.
My comparison to Mantle was based on the length of Judge's homers. You calling me Michael Kay? I just don't believe in judging players on their best days. Judge has been held hitless in 13 games this season. Somebody gets him out.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'm confused. I'm not Michael Kaying this and saying he's Mickey Mantle. I'm just pointing out that to say he's doing this against mediocre pitching is ignoring that he's been doing this all season. Of course he's going to whiff against good pitching. I just don't know how that statement means anything unless you're trying to say he only hits bad pitching.
You saw the same thing with Gary Sanchez last year, although Gary Sanchez 2017 is still pretty great. He's just not going to hit 60+ HRs a year. Judge probably won't either. He is OPSing north of 1.150 right now. Is he prime Pujols or is he going to settle into more of an Anthony Rizzo hitting wise? There is a lot of room for him to "falter" and still be amazing.
 
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ifmanis5

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I remember The Sporting News constantly ran radio spots on WFAN one year that went "The Coneheads invade Shea. Dave Winfield's continued assault on American League pitching." I think we can slot Judge into 'continued assault on American League pitching.' This is no Kevin Maas, this is real and I'm truly terrified. Fuck you, Nick Swisher.
 

cheekydave

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Strike me down, but I am having a very hard time finding anything to dislike about this kid, well, except that he plays for THEM. Cannot wait till he hits free agency and signs somewhere else, that will make me laugh.
 

Bozo Texino

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An incredible weekend from a young man who is absolutely in the fucking zone right now. Hats off to him.

As others have said, he'll fall off a bit for sure - but I can't see him being anything other than a pretty serious threat for foreseeable future.
 

simplicio

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Strike me down, but I am having a very hard time finding anything to dislike about this kid, well, except that he plays for THEM. Cannot wait till he hits free agency and signs somewhere else, that will make me laugh.
I don't really mind him playing for the Yanks, per se.

My problem is his highlight reels come with Michael Kay attached. Is there some sort of petition we could sign to address that travesty?
 

hbk72777

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You saw the same thing with Gary Sanchez last year, although Gary Sanchez 2017 is still pretty great. He's just not going to hit 60+ HRs a year. Judge probably won't either. He is OPSing north of 1.150 right now. Is he prime Pujols or is he going to settle into more of an Anthony Rizzo hitting wise? There is a lot of room for him to "falter" and still be amazing.

Sanchez is on pace for for 27 home runs this year. He's only played in 35 games with the injury , if he played 162, that would be about 46 dingers.

He's played 88 games in the last 2 years and has hit 30 homers.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Sanchez is on pace for for 27 home runs this year. He's only played in 35 games with the injury , if he played 162, that would be about 46 dingers.

He's played 88 games in the last 2 years and has hit 30 homers.
Right. I could see him hitting 40 in a year. Even 46 is a far cry from 60. Granted the MLB as a whole is on pace to set a HR record. There are 1/3 more HRs hit in a game this year than 2014. Maybe seeing people hit 50-60 HRs is in reach again.
 

terrynever

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The thing about Judge is his success might encourage other similar-sized athletes to strongly consider baseball over football. Baseball pays more and is easier on the body and the brain. Careers last twice as long. Judge might just be the tip of the iceberg.
 

Kliq

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Obviously being a Yankee is a strike against him but anybody that likes watching some behemoth hit a baseball super far (aka anyone with a pulse) has to like watching him play. Growing up my favorite non-Sox players were Kerry Wood and Adam Dunn. Dunn was never an outstanding player but there was something magical about watching a guy built like a defensive end smash a baseball 500+ feet. Judge has that same quality, although he's a much better fielder and doesn't have the same hole in his swing Dunn had, which is quite the scary player.
 

BaseballJones

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Judge is amazing, but I don't know how this ever could have been foreseen, at least on THIS level.

Minor league numbers:

2014 (age 22, A, A+, Fal): 557 ab, 21 hr (1 per 26.5 ab), .303/.413/.483/.896
2015 (age 23, AA, AAA): 478 ab, 20 hr (1 per 23.9 ab), .255/.330/.448/.777
2015 (age 24, AAA): 352 ab, 19 hr (1 per 18.5 ab), .270/.366/.489/.854
2015 (age 24, Majors): 84 ab, 4 hr (1 per 21.0 ab), .179/.263/.345/.608
2016 (age 25, Majors): 209 ab, 21 hr (1 per 9.9 ab), .344/.450/.718/1.168

So suddenly, at age 25, he's having the best year of his entire professional career, and he's having it in his first real run in the majors. There were many reasons to think he could be a monster power guy (huge size and strength, definitely had good HR numbers in the minors), but there's no way anyone saw THIS coming. He's on pace for 57 homers, 127 rbi, a .450 obp, and a 1.168 ops. That's insane. Never in his life, even as rate stats, has he been even remotely this good. Either he just magically became the best hitter on planet earth not named Mike Trout, or pitchers will eventually figure him out, at least to a degree.

But my god, him and Sanchez together....holy smokes what a pair.
 
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jon abbey

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Bird in 2015 (11 HRs in 178 ABs) and Sanchez last year (20 HRs in 201 ABs) also had much better HR/AB in their first exposure to the bigs than ever in the minors, I am not sure how to explain it but it does seem to be becoming a bit of a pattern for NY.
 

Apisith

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There is some chatter about minor league balls being less HR friendly than ML balls, am I right? I am guessing that's certainly one of the causes of HR spikes from previous power-bereft minor league players.
 

E5 Yaz

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Judge truly does seem to have the makings of an MVP/ROY season -- what with the Astros being more of a collaborative effort, the Red Sox and Orioles being mediocre, the Blue Jays stumbling and Mike Trout on the DL for a significant stretch.
 

BaseballJones

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Bird in 2015 (11 HRs in 178 ABs) and Sanchez last year (20 HRs in 201 ABs) also had much better HR/AB in their first exposure to the bigs than ever in the minors, I am not sure how to explain it but it does seem to be becoming a bit of a pattern for NY.
It's not just the power though. Hitting .344 with an obp of .450?? He's never done anything like that before.
 

burstnbloom

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That shot yesterday was a bomb. It's tough seeing him do so well but it's damn impressive. I'll take some solace in the fact that he's hitting a homerun on 41% of the balls he's hit in the air and the league leader in that category since 2011 is Stanton at 25%. Anytime that regression wants to start, I'd be fine with it. Yeesh.
 

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What's impressive to me is his approach and how he hits in general. His first two at bats in the Tuesday night game last week were late in the counts base hits (single/double), and he seemed to be totally in control. That scares me almost as much as the power. His D isn't too shabby either.

That said, I have no problem hating him unequivocally. He's a Yankee. A pox on him.
 

BaseballJones

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So basically Judge and Sanchez are going to be colossal (literally) pains in the ass for years to come, right?
 

jon abbey

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One thing to keep an eye on is he has massive home/road splits so far, a 1.405 OPS in NY and a .921 at home. Usually guys with splits like this are lefty pull hitters who hit most of their HRs to the short RF in Yankee Stadium, but Judge only has one YS cheapie, so maybe it's just that he feels super comfortable at home (?).

 

Wingack

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One thing to keep an eye on is he has massive home/road splits so far, a 1.405 OPS in NY and a .921 at home. Usually guys with splits like this are lefty pull hitters who hit most of their HRs to the short RF in Yankee Stadium, but Judge only has one YS cheapie, so maybe it's just that he feels super comfortable at home (?).

Possibly, I am actually really intrigued to see how he does this week going out to the bigger West Coast parks, where I believe he has not played before.