Patriots' current strategy...

Eddie Jurak

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In this article, Chris Gasper makes the case that the Patriots either fucked up their efforts to deal Butler or are taking an "all-in" approach that represents a major strategic shift in Belichick's approach, perhaps brought on by his impending retirement.

I am, shall we say, skeptical. My overall take on this article is that it is such trash that I, on reading it, scrolled back up expecting to see Volin's byline. But I thin it is worth discussing - maybe I am wearing my BB-colored glasses.

With regard to not trading Butler:

Either the Patriots misjudged the Butler situation and missed out on the first two rounds of the deepest draft in recent memory or they are loading up for Belichick’s run at history.

This will get spun into being the plan all along -- to keep Butler and pair him with Stephon Gilmore to form one of the premier cornerback tandems in the league. There is a lacuna in that logic, however. It runs contrary to a report from Albert Breer of The MMQB, who tweeted Friday that the Patriots pursued the 42d selection and another pick from New Orleans in exchange for Butler.

It would fly in the face of the Patriots’ long-standing pursuit of value propositions and past history of moving on from ostensibly essential players like Lawyer Milloy and Ty Law and trading ones such as Deion Branch, Richard Seymour, Mike Vrabel, Logan Mankins, and Chandler Jones. Getting into the first two rounds of this year’s draft represents better value than waiting until 2019 to get a third-round compensatory pick for a departed Butler.

The Patriots have parted with better players than Butler and not broken stride.
When was the last time the Patriots cut bait on an RFA? Everyone on the above list was either unrestricted or a long-time veteran.

Or it could be that we have been looking at the wrong window. Belichick, who turned 65 last month, appears unmoved by the Brady Window, but moved to action by his own.

There has been exigency in the Patriots approach this offseason. They signed Gilmore to a five-year, $65 million deal, sent their first-round pick to the Saints for wide receiver Brandin Cooks, swapped their second-round pick for Panthers defensive end Kony Ealy and a third-round pick, picked up tight end Dwayne Allen (and a sixth-round pick) from Indianapolis in exchange for their fourth-rounder, and signed running backs Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee.
How much of the big Gilmore splash is related to the Patriots having an unusual amount of money coming off of the books (and hence a ton of cap room)?

In any case, I go into this kind of story very skeptical, but here is where Gasper comletely loses me:

(Given the bounty that was surrendered for unproven quarterbacks in this draft, declining to deal Garoppolo also signals Belichick is all in for 2017.)
At this point I think we've descended from logic into pure political spin. Is hanging onto a backup QB with a lot of value on the trade market really an indication of "all in for 2017"? Throughout their run, the Patriots have pretty routinely gotten key on-field contributions from rookie players drafted in rounds 1-4.

This year's limited number of picks in the early rounds has certainly been unprecedented for the Patriots to approach the draft, but I'm more inclined to think it is the product of circumstance rather than some kind of shift to win-now mode.
 

tims4wins

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I agree. They have never been in GFIN mode, with the possible exception of 2007, but even that was a product of circumstances. They didn't give up much for Moss or Welker, really. The signing of Adalius Thomas was similar to the Gilmore signing. Honestly I think the most surprising move they have made this offseason is trading for Cooks. But as has been discussed elsewhere, Edelman is getting up there, and Cooks is a phenomenal talent.
 

Mystic Merlin

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I don't know why their handling of one player under some unusual circumstances - he's a very good RFA who wanted 'out' in a year where the NFL draft was as deep as its ever been at corner and the Pats signed a better player at his position in FA - carries the kind of significance Gasper would like it to.

If we grant him the facts as he portrays them, all he's demonstrating is that the Pats placed a value on Butler that is informed by his contract status and the risk that he lets his contract status affect his play or perhaps the locker room. No one came calling with that offer, so, here we are.

I'm curious - if they deal Butler in August for a 2018 second after some team's star corner blows out his knee, will Gasper walk back his angle here?
 

RedOctober3829

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The Patriots are handling this the exact way they should. It is Butler who has blown this situation way out of proportion. He is making more money from the time he started in the NFL until his FA years than a 2nd round pick would if you combine base salary and supplemental pay. His nose was out of joint because he saw other CBs who were UFAs getting money and he wasn't. It's as simple as that.
 

Harry Hooper

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Deepest draft in recent memory? Wasn't there a report the other day that the Pats had actually put rather few players on their board?

Edit: mixed up picks
 
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snowmanny

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Yes, the Butler situation isn't strange. They kept their options open. The fact that there was price at which they would have traded him that wasn't met doesn't mean they screwed up in any way. That must happen with every sports team every week.

The more interesting decisions are the Cooks trade and the Garoppolo non-trade, and what they meant in terms of how the Pats see each of those two players, the draft, the present and the future. But he didn't really delve into those all that much.
 

Koufax

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The GFIN theory is much more supportable by reference to the handling of Jimmy G. They passed up the opportunity to stock up on draft picks in order to keep a player who, if all goes well, will never see the field, but is a one-year insurance policy. That's GFIN.
 

Average Game James

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I think if the Patriots were truly in GFIN mode, Jimmy G would be in Cleveland... As good as Belichick may think he is, the all-in approach seems pretty likely to fall short if Jimmy G has to play meaningful snaps in December/January.
 

snowmanny

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I think if the Patriots were truly in GFIN mode, Jimmy G would be in Cleveland...
Not if you think the team as presently constructed can win with Jimmy but maybe not with Jacoby.

Edit: you added the rest of your thought, and I guess I'd agree that every team is "likely to fall short" but I think the Patriots are still a contender with Garoppolo, if not the favorite. Also the GFIN move sending Garoppolo to Cleveland would include Joe Thomas coming back.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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, f qwa week. We're going on in my opinion. The theories of a ="Koufax, pot: https://theringer.com/top-100-simpsons-episodes-90-to-81-17960c26bfea

, member: 2514"]The GFIN theory is much more stheuofpportable by reference to handling Jimmy G. They passed up the opprortunity to stock up on draft picks in order to keep a player who, if all goes well, will never see the field, but is a one-year insurance policy. That's GFIN.[/QUOTE]
 

Average Game James

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Not if you think the team as presently constructed can win with Jimmy but maybe not with Jacoby.

Edit: you added the rest of your thought, and I guess I'd agree that every team is "likely to fall short" but I think the Patriots are still a contender with Garoppolo, if not the favorite. Also the GFIN move sending Garoppolo to Cleveland would include Joe Thomas coming back.
Jimmy certainly protects the floor for the team if Brady gets hurt, you're absolutely right about that. I guess the question then becomes whether the expected contributions of something like a mid first rounder and mid third rounder outweigh the gap between Jimmy G and Jacoby probability weighted for the (hopefully unlikely) chance Brady gets hurt.
 

OnWisc

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So the Pats making personnel moves that could lead to "a sixth or seventh Super Bowl" is a result of having "overplayed their hand" and needs to be "spun?"

There seems to be not a little irony in this guy calling out the blind faith the local populace places in Belichick while apparently remaining unaware that he himself holds the man in such high regard that he views winning two more Super Bowls in relatively short order as some sort of consolation prize.
 

ragnarok725

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The GFIN theory is much more supportable by reference to the handling of Jimmy G. They passed up the opportunity to stock up on draft picks in order to keep a player who, if all goes well, will never see the field, but is a one-year insurance policy. That's GFIN.
I actually think it's the opposite.

This goes to whether you think they're keeping Jimmy G as an insurance policy, or if they're keeping him because they expect him to be the guy long-term, and are going to find a way to make that work (creative contract, dealing Brady a year early rather than a year late, whatever). Jimmy could have yielded picks that could have yielded significant on-the-field impact this year. Instead, the Pats are holding on to the backup QB. That feels like a plan for the future move because they think the backup QB is too valuable to the team long term to trade.
 

bankshot1

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IMO the Pats are in a modified GFIN mode, now defined as 2+ years. Their draft strategy seemed to be get more known quantity (Cooks-Ealy-Allen) than look to the draft to fill holes for the longer term. And that may pay off with more Lombardis over the next 2-3 years.

I would have been good trading JG for a shit ton, and assume the Brady/cliff risk.

But as we saw with the QB trades, the opportunity cost for 1-year of insurance is very high.

The Butler situation: It seems to me that NO backed out of a wink/wink understanding.

To me the Pats went over and above giving value to NO for Cooks. They were the only team to give up a #1, they also gave up 15 draft spaces in the swapping a 3rd for a 4th, and they moved quickly on the deal to save NO $800K roster dough for Cooks.
I think they may have overpaid for Cooks with the w/w understanding that at least the #32 was coming back for Butler. But NO got cold feet.

For '17 I like our CB situation, and hope BB and Butler can do something long-term, but in reality he's likely gone.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I don't know why their handling of one player under some unusual circumstances - he's a very good RFA who wanted 'out' in a year where the NFL draft was as deep as its ever been at corner and the Pats signed a better player at his position in FA - carries the kind of significance Gasper would like it to.

If we grant him the facts as he portrays them, all he's demonstrating is that the Pats placed a value on Butler that is informed by his contract status and the risk that he lets his contract status affect his play or perhaps the locker room. No one came calling with that offer, so, here we are.

I'm curious - if they deal Butler in August for a 2018 second after some team's star corner blows out his knee, will Gasper walk back his angle here?
It's a hot take commandment that you don't walk it back. Another is that you never wait to see how things play out. These are set in stone.
 

BaseballJones

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Great topic.

I don't see this as GFIN mode by the Patriots. I think that they had an opportunity, against their usual practice, to deal draft picks for players they REALLY liked.

1st rounder = Cooks
2nd rounder = Ealy
4th rounder = Allen
5th rounder = Gillispee

If those guys were the Pats' draft picks, we'd all be ECSTATIC. And that's...essentially what they were. Now they control those guys for less time, and they cost more $$, but the flip side is that they are much more known quantities than any draft pick could ever hope to be.

I don't think the Patriots are going this route permanently, but I think for this year, for these players, given the Patriots' situation, this makes a lot of sense.

I think with respect to Butler, BB wanted to keep him, and I agree with those here who say that this situation got blown out of proportion by Butler. BB is playing this like any other GM would - they have him under control for 2017 at very reasonable money, according to the CBA. Butler wants more, but tough crap. Who knows what will happen for 2018, however. I think if BB could have gotten a return that would have satisfied him, he'd have dealt Butler, but he didn't, so he's happy to keep him.

As far as JG goes....this one is a puzzling one for me. It seems crazy to not maximize his trade value if Brady is going to be the guy for 3-4 more years. I doubt that JG has agreed to take backup money to stay the backup for the next 3-4 more years, when he undoubtedly could have a starting job (with starting money) elsewhere. But I could be wrong. How crazy would it be if JG has agreed to do exactly that? So keeping him is either a sign that he's agreed to that (unlikely), that Brady is going to be gone after 2018 (because the Pats could franchise JG after 2017), or that they simply really really want JG as insurance for 2017.

It's a confusing issue for me and I'd love to know BB's thinking on this.

Long story short: I don't think any of us can *know* whether BB is in GFIN mode, but I don't think he is. I think he always things both short and long term, and tries to balance it all out, and tries to put the best team on the field now and down the road, understanding that sometimes you strike while the iron is hot, and other times you sacrifice the "right now" for the long term.

Obviously, it goes without saying that he's managed this balance as well as, or better than, anyone ever has.
 

Jimbodandy

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So the Pats making personnel moves that could lead to "a sixth or seventh Super Bowl" is a result of having "overplayed their hand" and needs to be "spun?"

There seems to be not a little irony in this guy calling out the blind faith the local populace places in Belichick while apparently remaining unaware that he himself holds the man in such high regard that he views winning two more Super Bowls in relatively short order as some sort of consolation prize.
This.

Obviously writers and other professionals get paid to discuss and write about this stuff, so "In Bill we trust" is not exactly helpful to their ends. But while we all try to figure out what they're doing with Butler and Jimmy, isn't the most likely possibility that BFB is just smarter than all of us?

Revis and Browner for "just one year" worked out pretty well before we "lost them for nothing", didn't it?

And while folks can talk at length about how Brady hasn't lost a step and doesn't have a Gronk-like injury history, doesn't the fact that he turns 40 before the season starts indicate that potential dropoff and/or nagging injury risk is elevated? Do we not maximize our chances of winning this year by having a relatively-proven backup at hand much more than whatever 21 year olds that we would have acquired from whatever draft picks Cleveland et al. dangled?

It's understandable that we will speculate about what these moves mean. But "moron Belichick is trading away the future for only another Super Bowl or two" is a hot mess, not a hot take.
 

E5 Yaz

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Gasper often reminds me of the type who writes to rile up the readers. It appears he's done his job in this case
 

Koufax

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Regarding the value of JG in 2018 (as he will certainly be gone after that), imagine that TB12 breaks a leg in week 5 and is ready to return in week 12. JG will have started 6 games and will have won most of them. There is real value in that, for sure. But it's a one-year value, because he wants to start and TB12 is blocking his way.
 

NortheasternPJ

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Regarding the value of JG in 2018 (as he will certainly be gone after that), imagine that TB12 breaks a leg in week 5 and is ready to return in week 12. JG will have started 6 games and will have won most of them. There is real value in that, for sure. But it's a one-year value, because he wants to start and TB12 is blocking his way.
Unless Jimmy gets hurt in 6 quarters again and then he's damaged goods who's injury prone.
 

Koufax

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All the more reason to trade him now, which is what I think they should be doing. I'm not saying that keeping him as a one-year insurance policy is a good idea, only that it's the only reason to keep him and it is not completely without value.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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It's definitely not the only plausible reason to keep him. None of us really know what BB thinks regarding 2018 and pretending like there is no way JG stays on the team is foolish.

If there is one lesson to draw from the whole JG episode this season (which began with just about everybody here believing he was a lock to be traded) then it's to be careful about making strong assumptions regarding how BB views the situation and the possible moves at various stages.
 

ifmanis5

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BB builds through the draft --> Hot Take: The Krafts are cheap. Why won't they spend the money?
BB trades, signs players --> Hot Take: What about the children?

I'm surprised about keeping JG as well but all the other moves that have been made this offseason have been great and I'm not second guessing the Pats at this point. The track record speaks for itself.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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It's definitely not the only plausible reason to keep him. None of us really know what BB thinks regarding 2018 and pretending like there is no way JG stays on the team is foolish.

If there is one lesson to draw from the whole JG episode this season (which began with just about everybody here believing he was a lock to be traded) then it's to be careful about making strong assumptions regarding how BB views the situation and the possible moves at various stages.
Agreed.

People keep saying he's gone in a year, but I'm not buying it. If BB thinks this guy is the one to move forward after Brady, then they can franchise him for 2 years, giving us 3 years to wait for Brady to decline.

Probable? No. Favorable? No. But the Patriots have the cap room. I'm of the opinion that BB is willing to forego elsewhere on the roster to ensure the QB spot is safe for the longhaul, even if it means the QB position takes up 15% more cap room than desired. I made this same statement well before the "Trade JG" Bandwagon got rolling, and im still sticking to those guns. I know it's not a popular opinion, but oh well, it's mine.

Do people really think BB is turning down multiple first day picks because he wants a good backup this year? Dudes got plans for JG. If he's willing to forego a haul on draft day, he's not changing horses midstream and letting him walk away after the season.
 

bankshot1

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IMO BB's strategy generally remains the same, "value". In an imperfect market where knowledge is less than certain, and liquidity is nil, he follows a contrarian//value path, looking for undervalued/overlooked assets.. Generally he trades down to accumulate draft capital, and studies seem to show that over time, he has picked up free currency from these trades. This year, he cashed some of those chips.in an unseemingly BB-manner. He bought a corner top of the market, and traded his top picks for known values to those who wanted in on the market, but hung on to his highly coveted back-up QB. If we're lucky we gain in the short-term, and won't be overly punished in the long-term.
 

axx

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Do people really think BB is turning down multiple first day picks because he wants a good backup this year?
See, that's the thing. They aren't getting multiple first day picks for him, because people know he'll be available next year.
 

Koufax

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Agreed.

People keep saying he's gone in a year, but I'm not buying it. If BB thinks this guy is the one to move forward after Brady, then they can franchise him for 2 years, giving us 3 years to wait for Brady to decline.

... Dudes got plans for JG. If he's willing to forego a haul on draft day, he's not changing horses midstream and letting him walk away after the season.
Interesting take, but don't you think JG will shoot his way out of town rather than hold a clipboard for 3 more years?
 

H78

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I really hope Jimmy G ends up being as good - and consistently healthy - as the Patriots seemingly think he is. He must have really been showing them a LOT in practice to get this kind of protection.
 

BaseballJones

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Interesting take, but don't you think JG will shoot his way out of town rather than hold a clipboard for 3 more years?
Or not even necessarily that, but maybe he'd just be so pissed that BB would be keeping him from a starting gig elsewhere that when it is time for them to sign him long term, JG simply says no and signs elsewhere anyway.
 

Stitch01

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Franchising JG for two years then having him sign with the Jets or something for a zillion dollars would certainly be a bummer. That would be putting themselves in the Kirk Cousins/Joe Flacco box without the benefit of actually getting productive starting quarterback play before giving out the giant contract.

If the Pats want JG as the long term QB they should sign him to a 4 or 5 year deal today and then trade or cut Brady after the season. The price will be cheaper and more cap friendly than going any sort of franchise route. I think that's a logically viable strategy if you think the Pats can get over any emotional and treat Brady like chattel (I don't think they will)
 

snowmanny

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On the one hand, I'm not particularly surprised they kept Garoppolo. On the other hand, if he's been on (for example) the Giants and had played great as an injury-substitue for a couple of games, and the Patriots somehow had the #12 pick and traded it for him - I'd be really really bewildered right now. So I guess I'm not sure what to think.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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See, that's the thing. They aren't getting multiple first day picks for him, because people know he'll be available next year.
Unless they franchise him. Then he's not.

Interesting take, but don't you think JG will shoot his way out of town rather than hold a clipboard for 3 more years?
How'd that work for Butler?

Or not even necessarily that, but maybe he'd just be so pissed that BB would be keeping him from a starting gig elsewhere that when it is time for them to sign him long term, JG simply says no and signs elsewhere anyway.
Or he ends up with a starting gig here when Brady fades in 2 years, is happy the team loves him and wanted to keep him, and he re-signs midseason for good cash, keeping him off the market and providing some financial security. It's a business, I suspect he'll act like it.

How would you tell?
Because I waste my time replying to this post.

Franchising JG for two years then having him sign with the Jets or something for a zillion dollars would certainly be a bummer. That would be putting themselves in the Kirk Cousins/Joe Flacco box without the benefit of actually getting productive starting quarterback play before giving out the giant contract.

If the Pats want JG as the long term QB they should sign him to a 4 or 5 year deal today and then trade or cut Brady after the season. The price will be cheaper and more cap friendly than going any sort of franchise route. I think that's a logically viable strategy if you think the Pats can get over any emotional and treat Brady like chattel (I don't think they will)
JG will value himself to a higher contract then what the Patriots will pay. IMO, if JG is here in year 3 of a back-to-back franchise, he's officially tagged as the heir and they'll throw money his way on a long term deal and let Brady go. Hell, that may be true if they franchise him once. If they think he's worth that much against the cap and is worth rejecting all sorts of trades by that point, they're not gonna let a 43 year old Brady submarine the future.

This is all about buying themselves some time. I'm sure they'd love for this to seamlessly work itself out, but it ain't looking that way.

Anyway, there's little reason to defend myself on this. I'm aware it's not a popular stance, but this isn't a hypothetical situation. One way or another, well see how this thing plays out.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I'm with KFP on this one.

If Tom Brady wins a playoff game next winter, he'll be the oldest QB to win one since the merger. Could he continue shredding the league for another couple seasons? Sure. Could he decline steeply this year or next? Absofuckinglutely. And it takes a lot of faith in avocados to conclude that the latter isn't the more likely scenario.

The ability to buy time is invaluable when you're staring down that much uncertainty. For the price of $21M spread over two cap years the Pats can potentially observe two years of Tom Brady's experiment in defying Father Time. And BB, who seems likely to want to coach until he is 70ish, can markedly increase the odds that for the entire time he'll have a QB good enough to compete with. I don't think he is interested in going out like Mike Shanahan, stuck coaching mediocre teams in the twilight of his career because his QB sucks.
 
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DJnVa

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He'd have 80+ million reasons to be fine with it.
He may get franchised but I don't think there's any way he signs another deal with NE without some detailed knowledge on Brady's mindset.
 

Hoodie Sleeves

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The Patriots are absolutely in Go for It Now mode as they are every year.
Go For It Now implies sacrificing future assets to win now. The Patriots (under BB) have never been in GFIN mode.


For the price of $21M spread over two cap years the Pats can potentially observe two years of Tom Brady's experiment in defying Father Time. And BB, who seems likely to want to coach until he is 70ish, can markedly increase the odds that for the entire time he'll have a QB good enough to compete with
Absolutely.

Something that people seem to forget is that relative to their value in creating wins, every good quarterback in the NFL is probably drastically underpaid.

If you're going to overspend to keep a backup - this is exactly the situation to do it in/.

Considering how much cap space teams have right now? You don't even worry about the $21M.
 
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dcmissle

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I'm with KFP on this one.

If Tom Brady wins a playoff game next winter, he'll be the oldest QB to win one since the merger. Could he continue shredding the league for another couple seasons? Sure. Could he decline steeply this year or next? Absofuckinglutely. And it takes a lot of faith in avocados to conclude that the latter isn't the more likely scenario.
With all the points made in this debate -- the resistance to this one is stupefying to me. What you say is not an opinion. It's a fact. I remember Warren Moon having good seasons at 41 and 42. I recall as a really young kid George Blanda starring in spot duty -- but it was only spot duty. That's it.
 

Stitch01

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Unless they franchise him. Then he's not.



How'd that work for Butler?



Or he ends up with a starting gig here when Brady fades in 2 years, is happy the team loves him and wanted to keep him, and he re-signs midseason for good cash, keeping him off the market and providing some financial security. It's a business, I suspect he'll act like it.



Because I waste my time replying to this post.



JG will value himself to a higher contract then what the Patriots will pay. IMO, if JG is here in year 3 of a back-to-back franchise, he's officially tagged as the heir and they'll throw money his way on a long term deal and let Brady go. Hell, that may be true if they franchise him once. If they think he's worth that much against the cap and is worth rejecting all sorts of trades by that point, they're not gonna let a 43 year old Brady submarine the future.

This is all about buying themselves some time. I'm sure they'd love for this to seamlessly work itself out, but it ain't looking that way.

Anyway, there's little reason to defend myself on this. I'm aware it's not a popular stance, but this isn't a hypothetical situation. One way or another, well see how this thing plays out.
They're going to have to basically make him the highest paid QB in the league in 2019 since they will have absolutely zero leverage (they're going to let the guy they just paid franchise money to benchwarm for two seasons go right when Brady is leaving?)

They'll have already paid, what, 45-50 million from 2017 and 2018 with no guarantee Jimmy G will ever actually start at QB? That seems pretty crazy.

If Jimmy G is that cant lose him under any circumstances valuable, then they are much better off just trading Brady after the season and getting Jimmy G for reasonable QB money now, like 5/80 with 40 guaranteed or something like that. That would be a typical Pats move if Tom Brady wasn't this player involved.

I think they're keeping Jimmy G because they like him, they like having insurance for the awesome team they have in '17, they have a year of insurance against needing a different QB in '18 because Brady is like basically every other QB ever and being washed up at 40, and because they will still get some sort of compensation after this season if Brady is back in '18.

I certainly will not be surprised or upset when Jimmy signs with the Browns next offseason leaving the Pats with a 3rd round comp pick. I think that's the most likely outcome as we sit here today. I'm glad that if Brady hits the wall this year that there is another option for 2018.
 

Harry Hooper

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Having a franchise-tagged backup QB on the bench just itching to take over is certainly one of the few remaining ways to boost Brady's motivation.