We are in a tough place. Tougher then we think.
1. We spend Draft capitol (which might be decent this year) on a QB, Let Mac play out next year and groom the New Kid. He inherits a team with a shitty line, shitty wrs, an older D (at least Dline) and an older RB. Just about that time our Good young players (mostly secondary) will be looking for expensive raises.
2. We spend Draft capitol on OL/WR this year. Basically means we are locked into Mac, or another place holder (read bad) QB for 2 years. Mac cant seem to elevate his surrounding "talent", and we are betting that the surrounding ROOKIE "talent" can elevate Mac.
We are likely not to see relevancy again for 3+ years. During that entire time Premier COACH (and questionable GM) BB will be on the hotseat. EVENTUAL divorce will be messy and sad.
I would definitely lean door number 2, and hope that Mac can become the Alex Smith to our version of the next Mahomes.
Obviously neither of these things is likely to happen (Mac becoming 2017 Alex Smith and the Pats drafting the next Mahomes) but I think it's the better approach to team building.
I agree with your conclusion, but the Pats have the draft capital and like 90 million in cap space (2nd most in the NFL) this upcoming offseason.
I just don't trust Bill the GM to do anything with any of it on the offensive side of the ball.
Problem with @Deathofthebambino s point is IMHO.
We cant buy a QB.
Real Difference maker WRs are rarely available.
Elite OLs are rarely available.
So we need to hit on a young kid who has been underutilized (Vrable-eque) or pay for older players (which we seemed to try to do this year for the OL....and they all ended up hurt).
We might hit on one of those needs... but we need such a talent infusion, I am not sure one matters.
I think it is one place where BB still has a fastball as a GM. He will pick up very good TEs, DLs, and special teamers and make good use of his cap money with those targets.
He's earning $6 million a year in NIL, and that could grow next year. If he's a late first round pick (no guarantee), that's about triple what he'd make his rookie year. Dalton Kincaid, for example, was the 25th pick last draft and his cap hit is $2.5 million. The best financial decision is probably soak up as much NIL money as possible before going pro.
I don’t think people really get this yet. It’s not an easy math problem. Plus he grew up rich, is currently earning and will have one chance to in his life to play college ball. He does push the second contract out by staying but projecting exactly how much that costs vs staying in isn’t simple just in dollar terms never mind utility
Problem with @Deathofthebambino s point is IMHO. We cant buy a QB.
Real Difference maker WRs are rarely available.
Elite OLs are rarely available.
So we need to hit on a young kid who has been underutilized (Vrable-eque) or pay for older players (which we seemed to try to do this year for the OL....and they all ended up hurt).
We might hit on one of those needs... but we need such a talent infusion, I am not sure one matters.
I think it is one place where BB still has a fastball as a GM. He will pick up very good TEs, DLs, and special teamers and make good use of his cap money with those targets.
Maybe I'm misremembering but I feel like there were multiple examples of all three this season alone (caveat being if you were willing to spend), no?
Lamar Jackson could have been bought at least in theory, maybe the WRs weren't great this year but at least DeAndre or Lazard would have really upgraded, and there were several elite tackles too.
Unfortunately, you can't do it if you are already paying three WRs wayyyyyyyyyy above their ability. TEs (non-Henry division) are the same story in that the money (and picks in that case) were spent pretty big, just not spent well. Gesicki is basically a tall WR without true high end WR speed. Whatever they are doing with the oline is also a money and roster pit.
That's the rub. If you squint really hard you might be able to see a path to this Pats team being .500 for the next few years and maybe getting lucky and into a playoff game. Along the way you wait for opportunities to replace Mac and improve the OL etc. Bill dissembles to the press about what the plan is. We as fans are mildly entertained, yet cynical about the future. This might be the best we can hope for.
Maybe I'm misremembering but I feel like there were multiple examples of all three this season alone (caveat being if you were willing to spend), no?
Lamar Jackson could have been bought at least in theory, maybe the WRs weren't great this year but at least DeAndre or Lazard would have really upgraded, and there were several elite tackles too.
Unfortunately, you can't do it if you are already paying three WRs wayyyyyyyyyy above their ability. TEs (non-Henry division) are the same story in that the money (and picks in that case) were spent pretty big, just not spent well. Gesicki is basically a tall WR without true high end WR speed. Whatever they are doing with the oline is also a money and roster pit.
We signed the consensus #1 WR on the market, nobody had Lazard as better that I saw. Hopkins looks like nothing special in TEN, he's getting zero separation, he's very similar to Parker in terms of production.
Generally though.... you can usually get O-line help in FA, you can rarely get a true difference maker WR, and usually can get contributors... QB is the place where you are least likely to get a good talent to price combination. (even Lamar, non-exclusive tag, you couldn't get him unless BAL let you).
QB is the hardest spot to fill outside the draft, it's also hard to fill in the draft, but that's the price you pay.
Edit- though in fairness, lots of top FAs don't work out. Yes Juju is struggling, but so are most of the OL who were considered a clear tier up from the best WRs available... bringing in new players can be tough.
If NE ends up with, say, the #8 pick in the draft, and they move up to draft Marvin Harrison Jr, then spends $$ on a top-line OT, they'd still have $$ available to add another WR (Tee Higgins). Then draft another OL and RB later in the draft. Then hit 2024 with:
QB Mac
RB Rhamondre, Elliott, draft pick
WR Harrison, Higgins, Douglas, Bourne, Boutte, Thornton
TE Gesicki, Henry
I think we'd all feel a LOT different about their offense, yes?
You're probably right, but the thing is...what I just proposed is EASILY done, to be honest. They have the capital to make it happen if they want to do it. It would revolutionize their entire offense, and, combined with an already very good defense, would suddenly make NE very tough.
If NE ends up with, say, the #8 pick in the draft, and they move up to draft Marvin Harrison Jr, then spends $$ on a top-line OT, they'd still have $$ available to add another WR (Tee Higgins). Then draft another OL and RB later in the draft. Then hit 2024 with:
QB Mac
RB Rhamondre, Elliott, draft pick
WR Harrison, Higgins, Douglas, Bourne, Boutte, Thornton
TE Gesicki, Henry
I think we'd all feel a LOT different about their offense, yes?
I see no reason you move up to probably either 2 or 3 and take anything other than a franchise QB.
I'd feel way better about going into next year with Drake Maye on the roster than Harrison as an example.
You're probably right, but the thing is...what I just proposed is EASILY done, to be honest. They have the capital to make it happen if they want to do it. It would revolutionize their entire offense, and, combined with an already very good defense, would suddenly make NE very tough.
It might make for an interesting thread, but if the Pats had gone all "chalk" in the drafts from 2018-present, I wonder what shape the franchise would be right now.
Problem with @Deathofthebambino s point is IMHO.
We cant buy a QB.
Real Difference maker WRs are rarely available.
Elite OLs are rarely available.
So we need to hit on a young kid who has been underutilized (Vrable-eque) or pay for older players (which we seemed to try to do this year for the OL....and they all ended up hurt).
We might hit on one of those needs... but we need such a talent infusion, I am not sure one matters.
I think it is one place where BB still has a fastball as a GM. He will pick up very good TEs, DLs, and special teamers and make good use of his cap money with those targets.
I'm not sure what "can't buy a QB" means, but let's put that aside for now. Mac Jones will be the Pats QB for the remainder of this year, and probably in 2024 barring injury (or barring a complete collapse that allows the Pats to pick in the top 5).
Real difference makers at WR are ALWAYS available. AJ Brown moved via trade, Tyreek Hill moved via trade, Stefon Diggs moved via trade. How about instead of trading down in 2022 from the 21st pick, we trade up and grab Olave, Garrett Wilson or Drake London. Instead of drafting Cole Strange, we could have probably traded down and grabbed Christian Watson, instead of taking Tyquan, we could have taken Pickens. I guess we'll find out quickly if we needed Gonzo that much in 2023 when the Jones boys are back and he's now hurt, but if the Jones boys and the defense continue to play well, we passed on Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison and Sam Laporta. Then we took Keion White in front of more guys that look like weapons in Rashee Rice, Jayden Reed and Tank Dell and Josh Downs. Josh Palmer and Nico Collins went in between our picks of Barmore and Ronnie Perkins in 2021. We traded down in 2020 to get Kyle Dugger and watched Michael Pittman Jr. and Tee Higgins go in between. Then after Dugger, Cole Kmet and Jonathan Taylor went after Dugger. Don't even get me fucking started on the 2019 draft.
He'll pick up very good TE's? BB used back to back 3rd round picks in the 2020 on tight ends and both are out of the NFL.
I can't even do this for offensive line, or I might actually throw up on my computer.
BB has never committed to drafting or trading for true game changers on offense in about a decade now, because he had the GOAT leading the way on offense. He didn't need to, but the teams that are currently dominating the NFL retool skill position players and lineman year after year after year. You have to commit to it, with draft capital (either by trading picks or using them or moving up). And then we you do make those picks, you don't fucking pick N'Keal Harry over Metcalf/Deebo/Brown or take Sony Michel over Nick Chubb.
If NE ends up with, say, the #8 pick in the draft, and they move up to draft Marvin Harrison Jr, then spends $$ on a top-line OT, they'd still have $$ available to add another WR (Tee Higgins). Then draft another OL and RB later in the draft. Then hit 2024 with:
QB Mac
RB Rhamondre, Elliott, draft pick
WR Harrison, Higgins, Douglas, Bourne, Boutte, Thornton
TE Gesicki, Henry
I think we'd all feel a LOT different about their offense, yes?
If this season continues on its current trajectory (still not guaranteed, even though things don't look promising now), BB is going to have to convince Kraft why spending FA and draft resources on WR's is a bad idea. Not sure that conversation will go well for Belichick. I think he would have a much easier time explaining how he is going to take a new approach scouting and evaluating offense at both the college and pro levels. I'm not as pessimistic as @Deathofthebambino on the possibility of Belichick's changing his approach in this area, but YMMV.
The other variable is that again, assuming current trajectory continues, there is no way no how the Pats exercise the 5th year option on Mac this offseason. Which may force them to look for a QB this offseason as a priority anyway.
It might make for an interesting thread, but if the Pats had gone all "chalk" in the drafts from 2018-present, I wonder what shape the franchise would be right now.
Chalk is impossible to really predict, but my guess from an eyeball of some mocks (used Consensus big board) is (early rounds only)
2018- Lamar and Will Hernandez instead of Wynn and Michel (probably Hurst instead of Lamar if you don't have them take a QB)
2019- Instead of Harry and Joejuan probably... Jawaan Taylor and Greedy Williams
2020- Instead of Dugger and Uche... Gross-Matos and Fulton
2021- Instead of Mac and Barmore... Mac Jones and Teven Jenkins
2022- Instead of Strange and Thornton... Malik Willis and Nakobe Dean
2023- Instead of Gonzalez and White... Gonzalez and Levis
If I'm BB, and the Pats don't end up with a top 5 pick in the 2024 draft, I'm committing every resource I have to getting top tier talent all over the offensive side of the ball to start next season. Mac plays as QB in 2024 and you see again what you have. If he sucks, he sucks, then you continue retooling the offense in the 2025 offseason. The 2025 QB draft currently appears weak, so if you don't pick up Mac's option for 2025, you bring in someone to act as a place holder for 2025 until that 2026 which looks to potentially be loaded at QB with Arch Manning at the top of the list, but there are 4-5 others that could be right there with him.
I think it's probably a year too early before we can get the QB we need out of the draft, but YMMV.
Chalk is impossible to really predict, but my guess from an eyeball of some mocks (used Consensus big board) is (early rounds only)
2018- Lamar and Will Hernandez instead of Wynn and Michel (probably Hurst instead of Lamar if you don't have them take a QB)
2019- Instead of Harry and Joejuan probably... Jawaan Taylor and Greedy Williams
2020- Instead of Dugger and Uche... Gross-Matos and Fulton
2021- Instead of Mac and Barmore... Mac Jones and Teven Jenkins
2022- Instead of Strange and Thornton... Malik Willis and Nakobe Dean
2023- Instead of Gonzalez and White... Gonzalez and Levis
Nope, because if Bill wasn't the only person in America that thought he should take N'Keal, either AJ Brown, Deebo or Metcalf might have already started catching balls from Lamar in 2019.
Of course, if Bill had drafted one of those guys, I honestly believe there's a pretty good chance that Tom Brady would have still been our QB in 2020, but i digress.
It might make for an interesting thread, but if the Pats had gone all "chalk" in the drafts from 2018-present, I wonder what shape the franchise would be right now.
I'm looking up my post history because I'm pretty sure I did this exercise here.
Edit: okay, here it is. It's from 2022, so if anyone wants to update it, be my guest.
"Okay, so I had the slowest of days at work yesterday and embarked on a little project. With all the talk about the "consensus" and how often the Patriots zig when other teams zag, I set out on a quest to figure one thing out: using the consensus big board at nflmockdraftdatabase, how much AV would the Patriots have gained/lost in the past five drafts had they picked the highest ranked available player by that measure instead of the guy they actually selected? It took me a while, but the results are now in! These will be spoilered because otherwise the post would be unbearably long.
2017 - plus 7 AV
Pick 83 – Patriots select Derek Rivers (DE) - 4 career AV. Best available by consensus Derek Rivers (DE) 4 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 85 – Patriots select Antonio Garcia (OT) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Carl Lawson (EDGE) 11 career AV -> minus 11 AV
Pick 131 – Patriots select Deatrich Wise Jr. (DE) - 22 career AV. Best available by consensus Caleb Brantley (DT) - 2 career AV -> plus 20 AV
Pick 211 – Patriots select Conor McDermott - 3 career AV. Best available by consensus Isaiah Ford (WR) - 5 career AV -> minus 2 AV
2018 - minus 2 AV
Pick 23 – Patriots select Isaiah Wynn (OT) - 16 career AV. Best available by consensus Harold Landry (EDGE) - 30 career AV -> minus 14 AV
Pick 31 – Patriots select Sony Michel (RB) - 21 career AV. Best available by consensus Josh Jackson (CB) 7 career AV -> plus 14 AV
Pick 56 – Patriots select Duke Dawson (CB) - 3 career AV. Best available by consensus Derrius Guice (RB) - 2 career AV -> plus 1 AV
Pick 143 – Patriots select Ja’Whaun Bentley (LB) - 20 career AV. Best available by consensus Tyrell Crosby (OT) - 11 career AV -> plus 9 AV
Pick 178 – Patriots select Christian Sam - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Equanimeous St. Brown (WR) - 4 career AV -> minus 4 AV
Pick 210 – Patriots select Braxton Berrios (WR) - 9 career AV. Best available by consensus Quenton Meeks (CB) - 1 career AV -> plus 8 AV
Pick 219 – Patriots select Danny Etling (QB) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Auden Tate (WR) - 5 career AV -> minus 5 AV
Pick 243 – Patriots select Keion Crossen (CB) - 5 career AV. Best available by consensus Allen Lazard (WR) - 14 career AV -> minus 9 AV
Pick 250 – Patriots select Ryan Izzo (TE) - 1 career AV. Best available by consensus Desmond Harrison (OT) - 3 career AV -> minus 2 AV
2019 - Minus 35 AV
Pick 32 - Patriots select N’Keal Harry (WR) - 6 career AV. Best available by consensus Jawaan Taylor (OT) - 20 career AV -> minus 14 AV
Pick 45 – Patriots select Joejuan Williams – 3 career AV. Best available by consensus DK Metcalf (WR) - 30 career AV -> minus 27 AV
Pick 77 – Patriots select Chase Winovich (DE) - 10 career AV. Best available by consensus Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (CB) - 12 career AV -> minus 2 AV
Pick 87 – Patriots select Damien Harris (RB) - 13 career AV. Best available by consensus Hakeem Butler (WR) – 0 career AV -> plus 13 AV
Pick 101 – Patriots select Yodney Cajuste (OT) - 2 career AV. Best available by consensus Amani Oruwariye (CB) - 10 career AV -> minus 8 AV
Pick 118 – Patriots select Hjalte Froholdt - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus David Long (CB) - 9 career AV -> minus 9 AV
Pick 133 – Patriots select Jarrett Stidham (QB) - 1 career AV. Best available by consensus Deionte Thompson (S) - 4 career AV -> minus 3 AV
Pick 159 – Patriots select Byron Cowart (DT) - 9 career AV. Best available by consensus Kelvin Harmon (WR) – 3 career AV -> plus 6 AV
Pick 163 – Patriots select Jake Bailey (P) - 6 career AV. Best available by consensus Emanuel Hall (WR) - 0 career AV -> plus 6 AV
Pick 252 – Patriots select Ken Webster (CB) - 3 career AV. Best available by consensus Gerald Willis (DL) - 0 career AV -> plus 3 AV
2020 - plus 4 AV
Pick 37 – Patriots select Kyle Dugger (S) - 9 career AV. Best available by consensus Kristian Fulton (CB) - 5 career AV -> plus 4 AV
Pick 60 – Patriots select Josh Uche (LB) – 3 career AV. Best available by consensus Josh Jones (OT) - 9 career AV -> minus 6 AV
Pick 87 – Patriots select Anfernee Jennings (LB) - 3 career AV. Best available by consensus Bryce Hall (CB) - 7 career AV -> minus 4 AV
Pick 91 – Patriots select Devin Asiasi (TE) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Prince Tega Wanogho (OT) – 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 101 – Patriots select Dalton Keene (TE) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Jacob Eason (QB) - 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 159 – Patriots select Justin Rohrwasser (K) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Curtis Weaver (EDGE) - 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 182 – Patriots select Michael Onwenu (OL) - 12 career AV. Best available by consensus Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR) - 8 career AV -> plus 4 AV
Pick 195 – Patriots select Justin Herron (OT) - 6 career AV. Best available by consensus Hunter Bryant (TE) – 0 career AV -> plus 6 AV
Pick 204 – Patriots select Cassh Maluia (LB) - 1 career AV. Best available by consensus Eno Benjamin (RB) - 1 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 230 – Patriots select Dustin Woodward (C) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Thaddeus Moss (TE) - 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
2021 - minus 9 AV
Pick 15 – Patriots select Mac Jones (QB) - 14 career AV. Best available by consensus Mac Jones (QB) - 14 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 38 – Patriots select Christian Barmore (DT) – 3 career AV. Best available by consensus Jeremiah Owusu-Karamoah (LB) - 4 career AV -> minus 1 AV
Pick 96 – Patriots select Ronnie Perkins (DE) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Jabril Cox (LB) - 1 career AV -> minus 1 AV
Pick 120 – Patriots select Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) - 5 career AV. Best available by consensus Daviyon Nixon (DL) – 0 career AV -> plus 5 AV
Pick 177 – Patriots select Cameron McGrone (LB) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Trey Smith (G) - 10 career AV -> minus 10 AV
Pick 188 – Patriots select Joshua Bledsoe (S) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Quincy Roche (EDGE) - 2 career AV -> minus 2 AV
Pick 197 – Patriots select William Sherman (OL) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Marvin Wilson (DL) - 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 242 – Patriots select Tre Nixon (WR) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Dylan Moses (LB) – 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
So that's 35 AV lost over a period of five drafts just by going "BPA by the big board" instead of the guy they ended up taking. Now, I'm fully aware that this isn't a complete picture and that measuring AV of 2020 and 2021 draft picks especially is a little foolish considering many of those guys could still develop/get injured and the equation could change rapidly in the coming years. So they basically ended up pretty much near what you'd expect in every season, aside from 2019, which was a bloodbath (kinda tracks with my overall perception too). In essence: four meh drafts, one terrible draft.
After I finished this up, though, I began thinking this was an incomplete picture. Just going BPA makes little sense. The 2019 BPA draft had them taking 3 CBs and 4 WRs, for instance, which is insane. So I decided to refine the comparison a little and find out the AV gained/lost by the Patriots had they simply gone BPA at the position they ended up picking over the past five drafts. Here are the results.
2017 = plus 22 AV
Pick 83 – Patriots select Derek Rivers (DE) - 4 career AV. Best available by consensus Derek Rivers (DE) 4 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 85 – Patriots select Antonio Garcia (OT) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Antonio Garcia (OT) - 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 131 – Patriots select Deatrich Wise Jr. (DE) - 22 career AV. Best available by consensus Joe Mathis (DE) - 0 career AV -> plus 22 AV
Pick 211 – Patriots select Conor McDermott - 3 career AV. Best available by Conor McDermott - 3 career AV -> plus 0 AV
2018 = plus 19 AV
Pick 23 – Patriots select Isaiah Wynn (OT) - 16 career AV. Best available by consensus Connor Williams (OT) - 23 career AV -> minus 7 AV
Pick 31 – Patriots select Sony Michel (RB) - 21 career AV. Best available by consensus Derrius Guice (RB) - 2 career AV -> plus 19 AV
Pick 56 – Patriots select Duke Dawson (CB) - 3 career AV. Best available by consensus Isaiah Oliver (CB) - 11 career AV -> minus 8 AV
Pick 143 – Patriots select Ja’Whaun Bentley (LB) - 20 career AV. Best available by consensus Genard Avery (LB) - 11 career AV -> plus 9 AV
Pick 178 – Patriots select Christian Sam (LB) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Jack Cichy (LB) - 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 210 – Patriots select Braxton Berrios (WR) - 9 career AV. Best available by consensus Auden Tate (WR) - 5 career AV -> plus 4 AV
Pick 219 – Patriots select Danny Etling (QB) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Kurt Benkert (QB) - 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 243 – Patriots select Keion Crossen (CB) - 5 career AV. Best available by consensus Holton Hill (CB) - 4 career AV -> plus 1 AV
Pick 250 – Patriots select Ryan Izzo (TE) - 1 career AV. Best available by consensus Marcus Baugh (TE) - 0 career AV -> plus 1 AV
2019 = minus 31 AV
Pick 32 – Patriots select N’Keal Harry (WR) - 6 career AV. Best available by DK Metcalf (WR) - 30 career AV -> minus 24 AV
Pick 45 – Patriots select Joejuan Williams – 3 career AV. Best available by consensus Greedy Williams (CB) - 7 career AV -> minus 4 AV
Pick 77 – Patriots select Chase Winovich (DE) - 10 career AV. Best available by consensus Chase Winovich (DE) - 10 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 87 – Patriots select Damien Harris (RB) - 13 career AV. Best available by consensus Damien Harris (RB) - 13 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 101 – Patriots select Yodney Cajuste (OT) - 2 career AV. Best available by consensus Yodney Cajuste (OT) - 2 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 118 – Patriots select Hjalte Froholdt - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Michael Jordan (G) - 11 career AV -> minus 11 AV
Pick 133 – Patriots select Jarrett Stidham (QB) - 1 career AV. Best available by consensus Jarrett Stidham (QB) - 1 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 159 – Patriots select Byron Cowart (DT) - 9 career AV. Best available by consensus Charles Omenihu (DL) – 4 career AV -> plus 5 AV
Pick 163 – Patriots select Jake Bailey (P) - 6 career AV. Best available by consensus Mitch Wishnowsky (P) - 6 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 252 – Patriots select Ken Webster (CB) - 3 career AV. Best available by consensus Saivion Smith (CB) - 0 career AV -> plus 3 AV
2020 = plus 3 AV
Pick 37 – Patriots select Kyle Dugger (S) - 9 career AV. Best available by consensus Grant Delpit (S) - 3 career AV -> plus 6 AV
Pick 60 – Patriots select Josh Uche (LB) – 3 career AV. Best available by consensus Terrell Lewis (LB) - 3 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 87 – Patriots select Anfernee Jennings (LB) - 3 career AV. Best available by consensus Jonathan Greenard (LB) - 6 career AV -> minus 3 AV
Pick 91 – Patriots select Devin Asiasi (TE) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Adam Trautman (TE) – 4 career AV -> minus 4 AV
Pick 101 – Patriots select Dalton Keene (TE) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Brycen Hopkins (TE) - 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 159 – Patriots select Justin Rohrwasser (K) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Rodrigo Blankenship (K) - 3 career AV -> minus 3 AV
Pick 182 – Patriots select Michael Onwenu (OL) - 12 career AV. Best available by consensus Josh Simpson (OL) - 8 career AV -> plus 4 AV
Pick 195 – Patriots select Justin Herron (OT) - 6 career AV. Best available by consensus Prince Tega Wanogho (OT) – 0 career AV -> plus 6 AV
Pick 204 – Patriots select Cassh Maluia (LB) - 1 career AV. Best available by consensus Markus Bailey (LB) - 4 career AV -> minus 3 AV
Pick 230 – Patriots select Dustin Woodward (C) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Darryl Williams (IOL) - 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
2021 = minus 2 AV
Pick 15 – Patriots select Mac Jones (QB) - 14 career AV. Best available by consensus Mac Jones (QB) - 14 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 38 – Patriots select Christian Barmore (DT) – 3 career AV. Best available by consensus Christian Barmore (DT) – 3 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 96 – Patriots select Ronnie Perkins (DE) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Carlos Basham (DE) - 1 career AV -> minus 1 AV
Pick 120 – Patriots select Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) - 5 career AV. Best available by consensus Kenneth Gainwell (RB) – 5 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 177 – Patriots select Cameron McGrone (LB) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Dylan Moses (LB) - 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 188 – Patriots select Joshua Bledsoe (S) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Ar’Darius Washington (S) - 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 197 – Patriots select William Sherman (OL) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Stone Forsythe (OL) - 1 career AV -> minus 1 AV
Pick 242 – Patriots select Tre Nixon (WR) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Cade Johnson (WR) – 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
The Pats have gone from negative 35 AV to plus 12 AV over the past five years with the positional adjustment. The 2019 draft is still god awful, but now 2017 and 2018 look much better! But in what is the best representation of how weird this exercise is, the surplus value that accounted for this reversal came mostly from the selections of Sony Michel and Deatrich Wise Jr., two players I don't think most Pats fans would rank as particularly great draft picks.
So there you have it. What can we take from this? Who knows. Drafting is hard, mostly. And even role players that aren't stars or entrenched starters are generally valuable even when picked reasonably high.
For funsies, I thought it'd be fair to go back and look at how the 2016 Patriots draft (which I consider to be a very good draft) would have fared under the "what if they had simply gone BPA" parameters and the results are simply ridiculous:
2016 = plus 114 AV
Pick 60 – Patriots select Cyrus Jones (CB) - 4 career AV. Best available by consensus Andrew Billings (DT) 14 career AV -> minus 10 AV
Pick 78 – Patriots select Joe Thuney (G) - 48 career AV. Best available by consensus Jalen Mills (S) 26 career AV -> plus 22 AV
Pick 91 – Patriots select Jacoby Brissett (QB) - 24 career AV. Best available by consensus Kevin Hogan (QB) - 2 career AV -> plus 22 AV
Pick 96 – Patriots select Vincent Valentine (DT) - 2 career AV. Best available by consensus Joshua Perry (LB) - 1 career AV -> plus 1 AV
Pick 112 – Patriots select Malcolm Mitchell - 4 career AV. Best available by consensus Jeremy Cash (S) - 0 career AV -> plus 4 AV
Pick 208 – Patriots select Kamu Grugier-Hill (LB) - 18 career AV. Best available by consensus Charome Peake (WR) - 1 career AV -> plus 17 AV
Pick 214 – Patriots select Elandon Roberts (LB) - 34 career AV. Best available by consensus Scooby Wright III (LB) - 1 career AV -> plus 33 AV
Pick 221 – Patriots select Ted Karras (G) - 25 career AV. Best available by consensus Kenny Lawler (WR) - 0 career AV -> plus 25 AV
Pick 225 – Patriots select Devin Lucien (WR) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Bryce Williams (TE) - 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
That's a whopping surplus of 114 AV in a single draft. They basically got Tony Romo's entire career (115 AV) just on added value when compared to the players they would have drafted by going big board BPA."
So basically,..... 2019 was terrible, but otherwise we were basically neutral. If you assume same positions then positive, so if there is a flaw in Bill's process (there probably isn't) it's which positions to prioritize more than anything else.
I'm looking up my post history because I'm pretty sure I did this exercise here.
Edit: okay, here it is. It's from 2022, so if anyone wants to update it, be my guest.
"Okay, so I had the slowest of days at work yesterday and embarked on a little project. With all the talk about the "consensus" and how often the Patriots zig when other teams zag, I set out on a quest to figure one thing out: using the consensus big board at nflmockdraftdatabase, how much AV would the Patriots have gained/lost in the past five drafts had they picked the highest ranked available player by that measure instead of the guy they actually selected? It took me a while, but the results are now in! These will be spoilered because otherwise the post would be unbearably long.
2017 - plus 7 AV
Pick 83 – Patriots select Derek Rivers (DE) - 4 career AV. Best available by consensus Derek Rivers (DE) 4 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 85 – Patriots select Antonio Garcia (OT) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Carl Lawson (EDGE) 11 career AV -> minus 11 AV
Pick 131 – Patriots select Deatrich Wise Jr. (DE) - 22 career AV. Best available by consensus Caleb Brantley (DT) - 2 career AV -> plus 20 AV
Pick 211 – Patriots select Conor McDermott - 3 career AV. Best available by consensus Isaiah Ford (WR) - 5 career AV -> minus 2 AV
2018 - minus 2 AV
Pick 23 – Patriots select Isaiah Wynn (OT) - 16 career AV. Best available by consensus Harold Landry (EDGE) - 30 career AV -> minus 14 AV
Pick 31 – Patriots select Sony Michel (RB) - 21 career AV. Best available by consensus Josh Jackson (CB) 7 career AV -> plus 14 AV
Pick 56 – Patriots select Duke Dawson (CB) - 3 career AV. Best available by consensus Derrius Guice (RB) - 2 career AV -> plus 1 AV
Pick 143 – Patriots select Ja’Whaun Bentley (LB) - 20 career AV. Best available by consensus Tyrell Crosby (OT) - 11 career AV -> plus 9 AV
Pick 178 – Patriots select Christian Sam - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Equanimeous St. Brown (WR) - 4 career AV -> minus 4 AV
Pick 210 – Patriots select Braxton Berrios (WR) - 9 career AV. Best available by consensus Quenton Meeks (CB) - 1 career AV -> plus 8 AV
Pick 219 – Patriots select Danny Etling (QB) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Auden Tate (WR) - 5 career AV -> minus 5 AV
Pick 243 – Patriots select Keion Crossen (CB) - 5 career AV. Best available by consensus Allen Lazard (WR) - 14 career AV -> minus 9 AV
Pick 250 – Patriots select Ryan Izzo (TE) - 1 career AV. Best available by consensus Desmond Harrison (OT) - 3 career AV -> minus 2 AV
2019 - Minus 35 AV
Pick 32 - Patriots select N’Keal Harry (WR) - 6 career AV. Best available by consensus Jawaan Taylor (OT) - 20 career AV -> minus 14 AV
Pick 45 – Patriots select Joejuan Williams – 3 career AV. Best available by consensus DK Metcalf (WR) - 30 career AV -> minus 27 AV
Pick 77 – Patriots select Chase Winovich (DE) - 10 career AV. Best available by consensus Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (CB) - 12 career AV -> minus 2 AV
Pick 87 – Patriots select Damien Harris (RB) - 13 career AV. Best available by consensus Hakeem Butler (WR) – 0 career AV -> plus 13 AV
Pick 101 – Patriots select Yodney Cajuste (OT) - 2 career AV. Best available by consensus Amani Oruwariye (CB) - 10 career AV -> minus 8 AV
Pick 118 – Patriots select Hjalte Froholdt - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus David Long (CB) - 9 career AV -> minus 9 AV
Pick 133 – Patriots select Jarrett Stidham (QB) - 1 career AV. Best available by consensus Deionte Thompson (S) - 4 career AV -> minus 3 AV
Pick 159 – Patriots select Byron Cowart (DT) - 9 career AV. Best available by consensus Kelvin Harmon (WR) – 3 career AV -> plus 6 AV
Pick 163 – Patriots select Jake Bailey (P) - 6 career AV. Best available by consensus Emanuel Hall (WR) - 0 career AV -> plus 6 AV
Pick 252 – Patriots select Ken Webster (CB) - 3 career AV. Best available by consensus Gerald Willis (DL) - 0 career AV -> plus 3 AV
2020 - plus 4 AV
Pick 37 – Patriots select Kyle Dugger (S) - 9 career AV. Best available by consensus Kristian Fulton (CB) - 5 career AV -> plus 4 AV
Pick 60 – Patriots select Josh Uche (LB) – 3 career AV. Best available by consensus Josh Jones (OT) - 9 career AV -> minus 6 AV
Pick 87 – Patriots select Anfernee Jennings (LB) - 3 career AV. Best available by consensus Bryce Hall (CB) - 7 career AV -> minus 4 AV
Pick 91 – Patriots select Devin Asiasi (TE) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Prince Tega Wanogho (OT) – 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 101 – Patriots select Dalton Keene (TE) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Jacob Eason (QB) - 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 159 – Patriots select Justin Rohrwasser (K) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Curtis Weaver (EDGE) - 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 182 – Patriots select Michael Onwenu (OL) - 12 career AV. Best available by consensus Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR) - 8 career AV -> plus 4 AV
Pick 195 – Patriots select Justin Herron (OT) - 6 career AV. Best available by consensus Hunter Bryant (TE) – 0 career AV -> plus 6 AV
Pick 204 – Patriots select Cassh Maluia (LB) - 1 career AV. Best available by consensus Eno Benjamin (RB) - 1 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 230 – Patriots select Dustin Woodward (C) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Thaddeus Moss (TE) - 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
2021 - minus 9 AV
Pick 15 – Patriots select Mac Jones (QB) - 14 career AV. Best available by consensus Mac Jones (QB) - 14 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 38 – Patriots select Christian Barmore (DT) – 3 career AV. Best available by consensus Jeremiah Owusu-Karamoah (LB) - 4 career AV -> minus 1 AV
Pick 96 – Patriots select Ronnie Perkins (DE) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Jabril Cox (LB) - 1 career AV -> minus 1 AV
Pick 120 – Patriots select Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) - 5 career AV. Best available by consensus Daviyon Nixon (DL) – 0 career AV -> plus 5 AV
Pick 177 – Patriots select Cameron McGrone (LB) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Trey Smith (G) - 10 career AV -> minus 10 AV
Pick 188 – Patriots select Joshua Bledsoe (S) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Quincy Roche (EDGE) - 2 career AV -> minus 2 AV
Pick 197 – Patriots select William Sherman (OL) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Marvin Wilson (DL) - 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 242 – Patriots select Tre Nixon (WR) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Dylan Moses (LB) – 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
So that's 35 AV lost over a period of five drafts just by going "BPA by the big board" instead of the guy they ended up taking. Now, I'm fully aware that this isn't a complete picture and that measuring AV of 2020 and 2021 draft picks especially is a little foolish considering many of those guys could still develop/get injured and the equation could change rapidly in the coming years. So they basically ended up pretty much near what you'd expect in every season, aside from 2019, which was a bloodbath (kinda tracks with my overall perception too). In essence: four meh drafts, one terrible draft.
After I finished this up, though, I began thinking this was an incomplete picture. Just going BPA makes little sense. The 2019 BPA draft had them taking 3 CBs and 4 WRs, for instance, which is insane. So I decided to refine the comparison a little and find out the AV gained/lost by the Patriots had they simply gone BPA at the position they ended up picking over the past five drafts. Here are the results.
2017 = plus 22 AV
Pick 83 – Patriots select Derek Rivers (DE) - 4 career AV. Best available by consensus Derek Rivers (DE) 4 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 85 – Patriots select Antonio Garcia (OT) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Antonio Garcia (OT) - 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 131 – Patriots select Deatrich Wise Jr. (DE) - 22 career AV. Best available by consensus Joe Mathis (DE) - 0 career AV -> plus 22 AV
Pick 211 – Patriots select Conor McDermott - 3 career AV. Best available by Conor McDermott - 3 career AV -> plus 0 AV
2018 = plus 19 AV
Pick 23 – Patriots select Isaiah Wynn (OT) - 16 career AV. Best available by consensus Connor Williams (OT) - 23 career AV -> minus 7 AV
Pick 31 – Patriots select Sony Michel (RB) - 21 career AV. Best available by consensus Derrius Guice (RB) - 2 career AV -> plus 19 AV
Pick 56 – Patriots select Duke Dawson (CB) - 3 career AV. Best available by consensus Isaiah Oliver (CB) - 11 career AV -> minus 8 AV
Pick 143 – Patriots select Ja’Whaun Bentley (LB) - 20 career AV. Best available by consensus Genard Avery (LB) - 11 career AV -> plus 9 AV
Pick 178 – Patriots select Christian Sam (LB) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Jack Cichy (LB) - 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 210 – Patriots select Braxton Berrios (WR) - 9 career AV. Best available by consensus Auden Tate (WR) - 5 career AV -> plus 4 AV
Pick 219 – Patriots select Danny Etling (QB) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Kurt Benkert (QB) - 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 243 – Patriots select Keion Crossen (CB) - 5 career AV. Best available by consensus Holton Hill (CB) - 4 career AV -> plus 1 AV
Pick 250 – Patriots select Ryan Izzo (TE) - 1 career AV. Best available by consensus Marcus Baugh (TE) - 0 career AV -> plus 1 AV
2019 = minus 31 AV
Pick 32 – Patriots select N’Keal Harry (WR) - 6 career AV. Best available by DK Metcalf (WR) - 30 career AV -> minus 24 AV
Pick 45 – Patriots select Joejuan Williams – 3 career AV. Best available by consensus Greedy Williams (CB) - 7 career AV -> minus 4 AV
Pick 77 – Patriots select Chase Winovich (DE) - 10 career AV. Best available by consensus Chase Winovich (DE) - 10 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 87 – Patriots select Damien Harris (RB) - 13 career AV. Best available by consensus Damien Harris (RB) - 13 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 101 – Patriots select Yodney Cajuste (OT) - 2 career AV. Best available by consensus Yodney Cajuste (OT) - 2 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 118 – Patriots select Hjalte Froholdt - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Michael Jordan (G) - 11 career AV -> minus 11 AV
Pick 133 – Patriots select Jarrett Stidham (QB) - 1 career AV. Best available by consensus Jarrett Stidham (QB) - 1 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 159 – Patriots select Byron Cowart (DT) - 9 career AV. Best available by consensus Charles Omenihu (DL) – 4 career AV -> plus 5 AV
Pick 163 – Patriots select Jake Bailey (P) - 6 career AV. Best available by consensus Mitch Wishnowsky (P) - 6 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 252 – Patriots select Ken Webster (CB) - 3 career AV. Best available by consensus Saivion Smith (CB) - 0 career AV -> plus 3 AV
2020 = plus 3 AV
Pick 37 – Patriots select Kyle Dugger (S) - 9 career AV. Best available by consensus Grant Delpit (S) - 3 career AV -> plus 6 AV
Pick 60 – Patriots select Josh Uche (LB) – 3 career AV. Best available by consensus Terrell Lewis (LB) - 3 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 87 – Patriots select Anfernee Jennings (LB) - 3 career AV. Best available by consensus Jonathan Greenard (LB) - 6 career AV -> minus 3 AV
Pick 91 – Patriots select Devin Asiasi (TE) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Adam Trautman (TE) – 4 career AV -> minus 4 AV
Pick 101 – Patriots select Dalton Keene (TE) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Brycen Hopkins (TE) - 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 159 – Patriots select Justin Rohrwasser (K) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Rodrigo Blankenship (K) - 3 career AV -> minus 3 AV
Pick 182 – Patriots select Michael Onwenu (OL) - 12 career AV. Best available by consensus Josh Simpson (OL) - 8 career AV -> plus 4 AV
Pick 195 – Patriots select Justin Herron (OT) - 6 career AV. Best available by consensus Prince Tega Wanogho (OT) – 0 career AV -> plus 6 AV
Pick 204 – Patriots select Cassh Maluia (LB) - 1 career AV. Best available by consensus Markus Bailey (LB) - 4 career AV -> minus 3 AV
Pick 230 – Patriots select Dustin Woodward (C) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Darryl Williams (IOL) - 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
2021 = minus 2 AV
Pick 15 – Patriots select Mac Jones (QB) - 14 career AV. Best available by consensus Mac Jones (QB) - 14 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 38 – Patriots select Christian Barmore (DT) – 3 career AV. Best available by consensus Christian Barmore (DT) – 3 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 96 – Patriots select Ronnie Perkins (DE) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Carlos Basham (DE) - 1 career AV -> minus 1 AV
Pick 120 – Patriots select Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) - 5 career AV. Best available by consensus Kenneth Gainwell (RB) – 5 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 177 – Patriots select Cameron McGrone (LB) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Dylan Moses (LB) - 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 188 – Patriots select Joshua Bledsoe (S) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Ar’Darius Washington (S) - 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
Pick 197 – Patriots select William Sherman (OL) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Stone Forsythe (OL) - 1 career AV -> minus 1 AV
Pick 242 – Patriots select Tre Nixon (WR) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Cade Johnson (WR) – 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
The Pats have gone from negative 35 AV to plus 12 AV over the past five years with the positional adjustment. The 2019 draft is still god awful, but now 2017 and 2018 look much better! But in what is the best representation of how weird this exercise is, the surplus value that accounted for this reversal came mostly from the selections of Sony Michel and Deatrich Wise Jr., two players I don't think most Pats fans would rank as particularly great draft picks.
So there you have it. What can we take from this? Who knows. Drafting is hard, mostly. And even role players that aren't stars or entrenched starters are generally valuable even when picked reasonably high.
For funsies, I thought it'd be fair to go back and look at how the 2016 Patriots draft (which I consider to be a very good draft) would have fared under the "what if they had simply gone BPA" parameters and the results are simply ridiculous:
2016 = plus 114 AV
Pick 60 – Patriots select Cyrus Jones (CB) - 4 career AV. Best available by consensus Andrew Billings (DT) 14 career AV -> minus 10 AV
Pick 78 – Patriots select Joe Thuney (G) - 48 career AV. Best available by consensus Jalen Mills (S) 26 career AV -> plus 22 AV
Pick 91 – Patriots select Jacoby Brissett (QB) - 24 career AV. Best available by consensus Kevin Hogan (QB) - 2 career AV -> plus 22 AV
Pick 96 – Patriots select Vincent Valentine (DT) - 2 career AV. Best available by consensus Joshua Perry (LB) - 1 career AV -> plus 1 AV
Pick 112 – Patriots select Malcolm Mitchell - 4 career AV. Best available by consensus Jeremy Cash (S) - 0 career AV -> plus 4 AV
Pick 208 – Patriots select Kamu Grugier-Hill (LB) - 18 career AV. Best available by consensus Charome Peake (WR) - 1 career AV -> plus 17 AV
Pick 214 – Patriots select Elandon Roberts (LB) - 34 career AV. Best available by consensus Scooby Wright III (LB) - 1 career AV -> plus 33 AV
Pick 221 – Patriots select Ted Karras (G) - 25 career AV. Best available by consensus Kenny Lawler (WR) - 0 career AV -> plus 25 AV
Pick 225 – Patriots select Devin Lucien (WR) - 0 career AV. Best available by consensus Bryce Williams (TE) - 0 career AV -> plus 0 AV
That's a whopping surplus of 114 AV in a single draft. They basically got Tony Romo's entire career (115 AV) just on added value when compared to the players they would have drafted by going big board BPA."
I love the work put into it, but there is a major flaw.
Losing 24 AV when picking a guy like N'Keal Harry over DK Metcalf is way, way worse when it comes to on field results and opportunity cost (1st round) vs. the 22 AV gained by getting Jacoby Brissett over Kevin Hogan at pick 91 or the 33 AV gained by grabbing Elandon Roberts over Scooby Wright with the 214th pick. We're also ignoring that 33 of the Jacoby Brissett's 35 AV, came when he played for other teams. He didn't provide any of that value for the Pats. He was a 2 AV here, so in my opinion, instead of a plus 33 AV, he really gave the Pats an AV of +1 (when subtracting out Scooby's 1 AV). Likewise, a guy like Berrios, who has a career AV of 9, but he didn't have any of those with the Patriots, but I understand this can only get so granular.
The problem isn't Bill whiffing completely on a draft, it''s the huge whiffs at areas of need, especially early in drafts. Bill's still been good at finding diamonds, especially on defense, later in drafts.
I love the work put into it, but there is a major flaw.
Losing 24 AV when picking a guy like N'Keal Harry over DK Metcalf is way, way worse when it comes to on field results and opportunity cost (1st round) vs. the 22 AV gained by getting Jacoby Brissett over Kevin Hogan at pick 91 or the 33 AV gained by grabbing Elandon Roberts over Scooby Wright with the 214th pick. We're also ignoring that 33 of the Jacoby Brissett's 35 AV, came when he played for other teams. He didn't provide any of that value for the Pats. He was a 2 AV here, so in my opinion, instead of a plus 33 AV, he really gave the Pats an AV of +1 (when subtracting out Scooby's 1 AV). Likewise, a guy like Berrios, who has a career AV of 9, but he didn't have any of those with the Patriots, but I understand this can only get so granular.
The problem isn't Bill whiffing completely on a draft, it''s the huge whiffs at areas of need, especially early in drafts. Bill's still been good at finding diamonds, especially on defense, later in drafts.
I think this last point is right. He's missed early on OL and WR, and passed over Lamar twice to take one of those OL plus a RB with a degenerative knee condition. Drafting Mac was defensible. He just hasn't worked out.
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