Since the All-Star Break the Sox have played uninspiring ball. They salvaged a 4-4 homestand against NY and Toronto and just completed an anemic West Coast swing through Anaheim and Seattle at 2-4. They've scored 48 runs (3.10 runs/9inn) and allowed 50 (3.18 runs/9inn) and all this came on the heels of losing 4 of 5 before the break.
So they're done? they're crap? they're the worst 1st place team ever, etc. etc.? Well, no, they're not. Fangraphs' algorithms http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=2&lg=div&date=2017-07-26 have them as them 93.6% likely to make the playoffs, 44.5% likely to play in the ALCS, 23.8% likely to make the WS and 12.9% likely to win it. That's better in all categories than they were expected to be in the pre-season, at the end of April, end of May and end of June.
Even compared to their expectations at the ASB before their 6-8 run in the past 2 weeks they've improved their odds of making the latter stages of the playoffs and of winning it all (see below table showing changes in FG's projected playoff odds from July 9 to today). In fact, only the Cubs, with their 10-2 post-ASB start, have increased their chances of playing in and winning the WS more than the Sox have in that time! Somehow the Dodgers, while still the favorites, have lowered expectations despite their own 10-2 run.
Fangraphs uses their own RoS projections of roster performance to influence their model. I doubt the addition of Eduardo Nunez has swayed the algorithm, but the health of the starting 5 and the favorable home schedule remaining certainly has.
So don't give up on this team - they've got almost a 50% chance to play in the ALCS this year for the first time since 2013. If they get there, they have a 29.0% implied chance of winning another Championship, which is 3rd highest chance of winning the LCS+WS given a team's made the LCS to the Dodgers (31.2%) and Indians (30.5%) and ahead of the Astros (28.3%) and Nationals (26.8%). The season's still alive. The bats will return and the rotation is the most solid we've had 1-5 since...you tell me! And as much as people like to talk down the value of a lights-out closer in the regular season, one common theme between the 2004, 2007 and 2013 has been a lights-out closer. The future looks bright.
So they're done? they're crap? they're the worst 1st place team ever, etc. etc.? Well, no, they're not. Fangraphs' algorithms http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=2&lg=div&date=2017-07-26 have them as them 93.6% likely to make the playoffs, 44.5% likely to play in the ALCS, 23.8% likely to make the WS and 12.9% likely to win it. That's better in all categories than they were expected to be in the pre-season, at the end of April, end of May and end of June.
Even compared to their expectations at the ASB before their 6-8 run in the past 2 weeks they've improved their odds of making the latter stages of the playoffs and of winning it all (see below table showing changes in FG's projected playoff odds from July 9 to today). In fact, only the Cubs, with their 10-2 post-ASB start, have increased their chances of playing in and winning the WS more than the Sox have in that time! Somehow the Dodgers, while still the favorites, have lowered expectations despite their own 10-2 run.
Fangraphs uses their own RoS projections of roster performance to influence their model. I doubt the addition of Eduardo Nunez has swayed the algorithm, but the health of the starting 5 and the favorable home schedule remaining certainly has.
So don't give up on this team - they've got almost a 50% chance to play in the ALCS this year for the first time since 2013. If they get there, they have a 29.0% implied chance of winning another Championship, which is 3rd highest chance of winning the LCS+WS given a team's made the LCS to the Dodgers (31.2%) and Indians (30.5%) and ahead of the Astros (28.3%) and Nationals (26.8%). The season's still alive. The bats will return and the rotation is the most solid we've had 1-5 since...you tell me! And as much as people like to talk down the value of a lights-out closer in the regular season, one common theme between the 2004, 2007 and 2013 has been a lights-out closer. The future looks bright.