Playoff Rotation

[RedOctober3829]

Right now, Sale's days to pitch are today, 9/26(extra day), and 10/1. Pomeranz's days look to be 9/25(extra day) and 9/30. That would line up Pomeranz's regular rest on Thursday 10/5 for Game 1 and Sale's regular rest on Friday 10/6 for Game 2.

If the Houston series ends up to be largely meaningless for the Red Sox, how could they juggle the rotation so that Sale gets Game 1 and Pomeranz Game 2 while still keeping them fresh yet not rusty? Would they get 2 spot starters and just have Sale/Pom pitch short sim games on their regular days?

After these two, who gets Game 3 and 4? Right now, I'd say Porcello would be the most trustworthy to pitch Game 3 and then Rodriguez Game 4.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Who pitches against the Twins?

 

[RedOctober3829]

Who pitches against the Twins?

I believe there's a Yankees subforum....

 

[RIrooter09]

1. Sale
2. Pom
3. Porcello
4. E-Rod

Price to the pen.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

The easiest way to flip Pomeranz and Sale would be to use the off-day tomorrow to skip Fister on Sunday, which would move everyone up a day and put Pomeranz and Sale on target to pitch the final Friday and Saturday rather than Sat/Sun. Sale could go Game 1 on regular rest while Pomeranz pitches Game 2 with a couple extra days off.

If Porcello makes the rotation and is everyone's Game 3 starter, would you give consideration to using him in Game 2 instead? The reason I ask is that he's been a better pitcher on the road this year than at home. Having him start in Minute Maid Park might yield better results. Of course, if he's on a roll pitching like he did in his last start, where he's pitching probably doesn't matter as much.

 

[BaseballJones]

Sale is Sale, so let's leave him out of this conversation for a moment. Here's everyone else's home-road splits for this year only.

Porcello
H: 5.30 era, 1.51 whip, 8.3 k/9
A: 3.43 era, 1.22 whip, 7.4 k/9

Pomeranz
H: 3.11 era, 1.25 whip, 10.1 k/9
A: 3.19 era, 1.43 whip, 8.5 k/9

Rodriguez
H: 3.81 era, 1.38 whip, 11.0 k/9
A: 4.42 era, 1.19 whip, 9.2 k/9

Fister
H: 4.93 era, 1.48 whip, 8.6 k/9
A: 4.75 era, 1.22 whip, 6.5 k/9

Looks to me like Fister would be the odd guy out, and that you'd want Porcello to pitch on the road. The problem is that in the divisional round, you're going to have to play games 1 and 2 on the road. Ideally, I'd slot Porcello in game 3 on the road, but that requires HFA for that round, which they won't have, barring some crazy things happening at the end of the year.

So if the Sox can sew up the division in such a way and in such a time as to allow them to set up the rotation as they see fit, if I was them I'd do it this way:

1. Sale at Hou
2. Pomeranz at Hou
3. Rodriguez vs Hou
4. Porcello vs Hou
5. Sale at Hou

The home-road splits for Porcello are pretty enormous this year, but I don't think you can justify sending him out there ahead of Pomeranz. But because his home-road splits are big, I'd then slot him after Rodriguez, whose home numbers are better than his road numbers (and much better than Porcello's numbers at Fenway).

Aug/Sept:

Porcello: 4.22 era, 1.41 whip, 7.4 k/9
Rodriguez: 4.13 era, 1.24 whip, 10.0 k/9

So in the past two months, ERod has been a little better than Porcello anyway. So yeah: Sale, Pomeranz, Rodriguez, Porcello, Sale. If you can work it out that way. Not sure how possible that is though.

 

[Reggie's Racquet]

If the end of the regular season Houston series becomes unimportant at any point would it not be a good idea to hold out or skip Sale and some other rotation regulars so that Houston doesn't get a look at them? They could let Fister and Price pitch during that series instead...if the games are not important.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

If either Porcello or EdRo look vulnerable early at home, there's also Price:

Career at Fenway: 17-5, 3.18 era, 1.07 whip, 8.8 k/9
This year (in 27 ip): 2-1, 2.67 era, 1.04 whip, 8.7 k/9

 

[phenweigh]

It's interesting to me how Fister went from consensus bum, to consensus playoff starter, to odd man out of the playoff rotation in less than 10 starts. I think the 3, 4, out of the rotation decisions are still up for grabs these last 11 games.

If the choice is indeed that Fister is out of the rotation, I don't think he's a lock to make the playoff bullpen either.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

It's interesting to me how Fister went from consensus bum, to consensus playoff starter, to odd man out of the playoff rotation in less than 10 starts. I think the 3, 4, out of the rotation decisions are still up for grabs these last 11 games.

If the choice is indeed that Fister is out of the rotation, I don't think he's a lock to make the playoff bullpen either.

I think Fister being in the playoff rotation was always predicated on him maintaining the hot streak he was on through August. His last two starts have ended the streak, and killed any enthusiasm people had for him. Those six innings raised his ERA by nearly a full run. Hard to find a silver lining there, even if he pitches reasonably well over his final couple starts.

 

[BaseballJones]

It's interesting to me how Fister went from consensus bum, to consensus playoff starter, to odd man out of the playoff rotation in less than 10 starts. I think the 3, 4, out of the rotation decisions are still up for grabs these last 11 games.

If the choice is indeed that Fister is out of the rotation, I don't think he's a lock to make the playoff bullpen either.

No way. It's either all or nothing with Fister. Price will come out of the bullpen. If Fister doesn't make the rotation, he's not coming out of the bullpen...he'll be totally left off the playoff roster, staying in shape in case of injury for the ALCS (should they get that far).

Rotation: Sale, Pomeranz, Rodriguez, Porcello (or Fister if Rick is horrible the last 2 starts)
Bullpen: Price, Reed, Kelly, Scott, Reed, Smith, Kimbrel - add in either Abad or Workman if you want 8 relievers

 

[RustyKuntzwasnotastripper]

Fister could be important if they make to the ALCS against the Indians.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

No way. It's either all or nothing with Fister. Price will come out of the bullpen. If Fister doesn't make the rotation, he's not coming out of the bullpen...he'll be totally left off the playoff roster, staying in shape in case of injury for the ALCS (should they get that far).

Rotation: Sale, Pomeranz, Rodriguez, Porcello (or Fister if Rick is horrible the last 2 starts)
Bullpen: Price, Reed, Kelly, Scott, Reed, Smith, Kimbrel - add in either Abad or Workman if you want 8 relievers

You double counted Reed

Bullpen: Kimbrel, Reed, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Price, Scott, Workman - with Hembree and Abad in reserve

 

[judyb]

Fister could be important if they make to the ALCS against the Indians.

If they make it they can change the roster between series.

 

[E5 Yaz]

The Astros are a 1.5 behind the Indians, and have the game in hand. There's still a solid chance the ALE winner plays Cleveland in the first round

If they tie, Cleveland won the season series 5-1

 

[phenweigh]

You double counted Reed

Bullpen: Kimbrel, Reed, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Price, Scott, Workman - with Hembree and Abad in reserve

I think Fister gets a bullpen spot if the Sox decide to go with a 7 man pen to ensure they have a long man in case of an extra inning game. A five-man bench allows the Sox to have Rajai Davis on the roster as a pinch runner. They could drop Young to add Davis, but I doubt that the Sox would do that.

 

[chrisfont9]

Right now, Sale's days to pitch are today, 9/26(extra day), and 10/1. Pomeranz's days look to be 9/25(extra day) and 9/30. That would line up Pomeranz's regular rest on Thursday 10/5 for Game 1 and Sale's regular rest on Friday 10/6 for Game 2.

If the Houston series ends up to be largely meaningless for the Red Sox, how could they juggle the rotation so that Sale gets Game 1 and Pomeranz Game 2 while still keeping them fresh yet not rusty? Would they get 2 spot starters and just have Sale/Pom pitch short sim games on their regular days?

After these two, who gets Game 3 and 4? Right now, I'd say Porcello would be the most trustworthy to pitch Game 3 and then Rodriguez Game 4.

Sale's chances of pitching on 10/1 have to be pretty low, right? It would only happen if the division were still in play on the last day of the season, which is possible of course. It'd be big if today were his last day pitching on normal rest.

 

[BaseballJones]

You double counted Reed

Bullpen: Kimbrel, Reed, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Price, Scott, Workman - with Hembree and Abad in reserve

He's THAT good!

Yeah my bad. I agree - Workman probably in place of Reed's identical twin. But you never know - they might want another lefty instead, and Abad has been pretty good.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

No way. It's either all or nothing with Fister. Price will come out of the bullpen. If Fister doesn't make the rotation, he's not coming out of the bullpen...he'll be totally left off the playoff roster, staying in shape in case of injury for the ALCS (should they get that far).

Rotation: Sale, Pomeranz, Rodriguez, Porcello (or Fister if Rick is horrible the last 2 starts)
Bullpen: Price, Reed, Kelly, Scott, Reed, Smith, Kimbrel - add in either Abad or Workman if you want 8 relievers

Barnes is going to be on the playoff roster. We might not like it, but it's very, very likely to happen.

 

[rmurph3]

Barnes is going to be on the playoff roster. We might not like it, but it's very, very likely to happen.

If anyone is getting bumped for Abad, I'd say it's Smith before Workman/Barnes.

But there is not a ton of need for a 3rd LH reliever vs. HOU.... they've got some lefties (Reddick, McCann, etc) but most of the guys who really do the damage are RH.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

there is not a ton of need for a 3rd LH reliever vs. HOU

Especially not when you have Sale, Pom and/or EdRo potentially available for an inning or two between starts. I'd assume Barnes, Workman and Smith over Abad throughout the playoffs for that reason.

 

[normstalls]

Is someone who is smarter than me able to look at Abad's stats comparing low lev vs. high lev? I may be wrong about this, but my impression of him is he does fine in mop up/blow outs and that is what brings his overall season numbers down. But put him in a tight spot to hold a lead and bad Abad shows up. I could be way off base on this. (His gameLI is .63 which seems really low)

 

[uncannymanny]

This season it’s just your impression. Gives up a few more hits and less slugging in high v low leverage.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Is someone who is smarter than me able to look at Abad's stats comparing low lev vs. high lev? I may be wrong about this, but my impression of him is he does fine in mop up/blow outs and that is what brings his overall season numbers down. But put him in a tight spot to hold a lead and bad Abad shows up. I could be way off base on this. (His gameLI is .63 which seems really low)

HiLev: 22 PA, 0 R, 5 H, 3 BB, 5 K, .627 OPS against
MedLev: 20 PA, 1 R, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K, .644 OPS against
LowLev: 130 PA, 13 R, 28 H, 6 BB, 27 K, .663 OPS against

It would appear he's not any better or worse in high leverage versus low leverage, he just hasn't been used much in high leverage spots this season.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Is it all that bad of an idea to have Pom pitch game 1? Other than a "respect" to Sale, Pom has pretty pitched pretty damn well, but he also taxes the bullpen more. IF it lines up that he's Game 1 on regular rest, let him pitch it, the pen can get a rest game 2 when Sale goes.

 

[tims4wins]

Is it all that bad of an idea to have Pom pitch game 1? Other than a "respect" to Sale, Pom has pretty pitched pretty damn well, but he also taxes the bullpen more. IF it lines up that he's Game 1 on regular rest, let him pitch it, the pen can get a rest game 2 when Sale goes.

I'd rather have Pom pitch the day before the pen gets rest. Plus even if Sale pitches great they are still likely to need Kimbrel and maybe one other guy. Plus what if Sale doesn't pitch well?

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I'd rather have Pom pitch the day before the pen gets rest.

Yes, that's the point.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Is bullpen rest really a big concern when they're all going to have at least 3 days off while the Wildcard games are played and a day off after Game 2 as well? Unless one or both of Pomeranz and Sale spit the bit earlier than expected (as in, before the 6th inning) or they go into lots of extra innings, I don't expect the bullpen to be overly taxed in the first two games.

I really think the concerns of Pomeranz not going deep enough is overstated. He's failed to pitch into the 6th twice since the end of June. Once he came out with an injury in the 4th. The other he pitched 5 innings. Asking the bullpen for 9 outs is not unusual in the post-season as everyone tends to have a shorter leash.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Maybe not normally, but outside of Sale, the rotation is good for six innings most night, is erratic and this team has played a shit ton of extra innings this year. It may not be a huge concern, but all things being equal I'd rather get them as much rest as possible if they're going to go deep.

 

[tims4wins]

Yes, that's the point.

Game 2 is the day before the off day

 

[normstalls]

HiLev: 22 PA, 0 R, 5 H, 3 BB, 5 K, .627 OPS against
MedLev: 20 PA, 1 R, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K, .644 OPS against
LowLev: 130 PA, 13 R, 28 H, 6 BB, 27 K, .663 OPS against

It would appear he's not any better or worse in high leverage versus low leverage, he just hasn't been used much in high leverage spots this season.

Great stuff, thank you

 

[uncannymanny]

Is it all that bad of an idea to have Pom pitch game 1? Other than a "respect" to Sale, Pom has pretty pitched pretty damn well, but he also taxes the bullpen more. IF it lines up that he's Game 1 on regular rest, let him pitch it, the pen can get a rest game 2 when Sale goes.

This is probably the ideal deployment for this staff, but it might take 25 years for an MLB manager to do it. Pomeranz has been excellent and outside of Kluber I think we have at least even odds to steal that game. The way the series shakes out if you lose that first game could get a manager fired, though.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Game 2 is the day before the off day

Ok, sorry, misread what you meant. Game 1 is after, what, 3 days rest? Then Sale goes and presumably gives you 7-8 inning and then another day off. I prefer that, but to each their own.

 

[soxeast]

HiLev: 22 PA, 0 R, 5 H, 3 BB, 5 K, .627 OPS against
MedLev: 20 PA, 1 R, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K, .644 OPS against
LowLev: 130 PA, 13 R, 28 H, 6 BB, 27 K, .663 OPS against

It would appear he's not any better or worse in high leverage versus low leverage, he just hasn't been used much in high leverage spots this season.

How did you get this about leverage?

 

[sean1562]

How did you get this about leverage?

If you go to a player's page on baseball reference, and look at their splits for the year, it is about halfway down the page.

 

[ricopetro6]

why do so many in the media keep saying that the Sox only need 3 starters in the play-offs? Looking at the ALDS dates, and it's 4 starters unless Sale goes on 3 days rest which I assume is not happening.

 

[AB in DC]

True, but is there anyone else on the roster who you'd trust starting Game 4 in a playoff series?

Honestly, I'd take 3 innings of Price plus 6 innings from the bullpen before I'd hand the ball to either Porcello or Fister.

 

[AB in DC]

FIP aficionados may love today's performance (9 K, 0 BB, 0 HR). But I think Fister's continued inability to get out of the 1st inning unscathed pretty much kills any chance of his making the playoff roster.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I feel bad for the guy.... almost.... he soooo almost deserves a spot just for almost single handedly saving the season when our starting pitching was on it's collective knees. But he just can't take the 4 starting rotation spots and his 1st inning jitters can't put him into a bullpen spot.
I imagine he'll get a nice ML contract next year on a one year deal that will surpass all the earnings of my entire working life. Good for him. fucker.

 

[rajendra82]

I would put Fister in the bullpen over Workman. Better velocity, better command, and more experience.

 

[CanvasAlley]

I would put Fister in the bullpen over Workman. Better velocity, better command, and more experience.

Perhaps, but the Sox can ill afford his troubling 1st inning issues in the playoffs. I hate it because he saved us during a down period and I really like to watch him pitch.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

so how are we going to manage Sale? maybe just a short tune-up on Sunday 10/1?

 

[JimD]

True, but is there anyone else on the roster who you'd trust starting Game 4 in a playoff series?

Honestly, I'd take 3 innings of Price plus 6 innings from the bullpen before I'd hand the ball to either Porcello or Fister.

We got a preview on Friday night - Porcello on a short leash, then Price for multiple innings.

 

[phenweigh]

so how are we going to manage Sale? maybe just a short tune-up on Sunday 10/1?

They could flip Pom and Sale for tonight and tomorrow, then Sale would be on regular rest to start game 1 of the ALDS. But if that was in the cards I suppose we'd have heard about it by now.

 

[AB in DC]

We got a preview on Friday night - Porcello on a short leash, then Price for multiple innings.

The bullpen has been so dominant lately that I'd rather the Sox just skip Porcello altogether -- get maybe 3 innings out of Price, then one inning each from six other relievers.

(with Porcello going in extra innings if needed)

 

[Remagellan]

One extra inning game in a series would show you why this wouldn’t be a good idea.

 

[rmurph3]

I think there's some value in reading the series as it stands up to that point... how much pen you've got available, how fresh Price is, how desperate we are. In a long extra-innings situation, I'd much rather have Price there than Porcello, for instance.... whether earlier in the series or in the game that Porcello would have started.

Given the specifics of the situation, there's also the potential path of going to Sale in G4 (to start or in a multi-inning relief stint) and then just going whole-staff-on-deck in G5. Not saying that's likely, but we've seen those sorts of moves before. (Price did this for Toronto a couple of years back, starting G1 and then relieving in G4, leaving G5 to Stroman.)

Plus starting Porcello, even on a short leash, gets the couple of HOU LH bats into the starting lineup and forces some awkward middle-inning decisions for Hinch.

 

[chrisfont9]

I'd like to see everyone skip/minimize their final turn except maybe Rodriguez, who's sort of still building from his injury layoff. Maybe Porcello benefits from staying in rhythm, but Sale doesn't need to pitch again after today and I'm sure Pomeranz would do well to take it easy given his workload exceeding his history. Price can extend himself a bit and after that just use the September callups.

I can't believe they would leave Fister off the roster completely. I just don't think they see him as a disaster waiting to happen, even if we do.

 

[joe dokes]

I'd like to see everyone skip/minimize their final turn except maybe Rodriguez, who's sort of still building from his injury layoff. Maybe Porcello benefits from staying in rhythm, but Sale doesn't need to pitch again after today and I'm sure Pomeranz would do well to take it easy given his workload exceeding his history. Price can extend himself a bit and after that just use the September callups.

I dont think anyone here is really had any idea about that stuff with Sale. I'm sure, however, that if he sucks in game 1, it will either be because he had too much rest or not enough rest. And Pomeranz looks like he's about to pitch the same number of innings he pitched last year.

I think all the starters will have some input as to what they think they *need* to get out of the games that may not "matter." Not to the extent of sale saying "I want to throw 150 pitches next Sunday," but if he tells Farrell and Willis that he thinks he'll be sharper with 25-40 pitches on one of those final days, then we'll see him.

 

[chrisfont9]

I dont think anyone here is really had any idea about that stuff with Sale. I'm sure, however, that if he sucks in game 1, it will either be because he had too much rest or not enough rest. And Pomeranz looks like he's about to pitch the same number of innings he pitched last year.

I think all the starters will have some input as to what they think they *need* to get out of the games that may not "matter." Not to the extent of sale saying "I want to throw 150 pitches next Sunday," but if he tells Farrell and Willis that he thinks he'll be sharper with 25-40 pitches on one of those final days, then we'll see him.

That's true, we are inferring from Sale's sorta-trend of tailing off some in the second half as related to wearing down. It may be physical, or mental, or not a trend at all. Or not a trend that can be rectified by missing a start. Whatever you think of him, Farrell has had to deal with these situations a lot before, and we've got tee shirts from two of those Octobers where he pushed all the right buttons.