Playoff Rotation

joe dokes

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That's true, we are inferring from Sale's sorta-trend of tailing off some in the second half as related to wearing down. It may be physical, or mental, or not a trend at all. Or not a trend that can be rectified by missing a start. Whatever you think of him, Farrell has had to deal with these situations a lot before, and we've got tee shirts from two of those Octobers where he pushed all the right buttons.
Its a tricky spot. (assuming stuff is wrapped before the weekend). If he gets a tuneup, its either followed by short rest before the playoff game, or it follows short rest with regular rest for the playoff game. I have no clue what the best path is here.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I feel bad for the guy.... almost.... he soooo almost deserves a spot just for almost single handedly saving the season when our starting pitching was on it's collective knees.
Did he though? Was the rotation ever "on its collective knees"? He stepped in for an injured pitcher who was supposed to be one of the aces of the staff and pitched beyond expectations for a period of 7 starts (July 31-Sep 6). In that span, the team was 22-12 (5-2 in Fister's starts) with a collective 3.88 ERA (Fister was at 2.79). He was very good, but I don't believe the rest of the staff was struggling by any means.

Perhaps the perception comes from the fact that the team as a whole had an abysmal July and a very strong August? But the abysmal July can certainly be laid at the feet of the offense more so than the pitching, which had a collective ERA of 3.14 from July 1-July 30 (which includes two abysmal Fister starts).

Fister made a valuable contribution to the team this year, timed perfectly at a point where the team turned around a bad month of play and got hot again. But I think it's a stretch to say he saved anything. And he's not deserving of a post-season roster spot for those seven starts if he's subsequently turned back into a pumpkin in the intervening 4-5 outings.
 

chrisfont9

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Its a tricky spot. (assuming stuff is wrapped before the weekend). If he gets a tuneup, its either followed by short rest before the playoff game, or it follows short rest with regular rest for the playoff game. I have no clue what the best path is here.
With Sale, in looking at his game log, it's kind of shocking how many of his worst games are with an extra day or two of rest. Maybe the ideal situation is regular rest, but his last start be low-effort?
 

JimD

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With Sale, in looking at his game log, it's kind of shocking how many of his worst games are with an extra day or two of rest. Maybe the ideal situation is regular rest, but his last start be low-effort?
Having his last start, even a tune-up, come against the likely first-round playoff opponent is a weird situation. Do you risk Houston's batters getting too familiar with Sale's stuff? Does Sale benefit from a fresh look at the Astros' offensive approach?
 

uk_sox_fan

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Fister made a valuable contribution to the team this year, timed perfectly at a point where the team turned around a bad month of play and got hot again. But I think it's a stretch to say he saved anything. And he's not deserving of a post-season roster spot for those seven starts if he's subsequently turned back into a pumpkin in the intervening 4-5 outings.
It hasn't been "4-5 outings" of pumpkin-ness. It was two plus a middling one his last time out (5 1/3 9H 3ER 0BB 9K's 0HR in a 5-4 win @Cin)

4 starts ago he went 7 innings against the Jays and gave up 4 hits, 3 walks and 1 ER whilst fanning 9 and getting the easy 6-1 win. 5 starts ago he was similarly dominant against the MFY in the Toilet (7IP 4H 1ER 1BB 5Ks in a 4-1 win).

Point is if you're going to argue that his August starts were very good but caution not to exaggerate how good they were, then why do you exaggerate his subsequent drop off?
 

phenweigh

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#4 starter choice:

Per Baseball-Reference, Fister has a better FIP this year than Porcello, 3.96 vs. 4.60.

If we want to go with recent results ... Fister looks much better. September tOPS+ comparsion is Fister 102 vs. Porcello 114. September sOPS+ comparsion is Fister 98 vs. Porcello 134.

Or does none of that matter since Porcello won the Cy last season?

I think Rick will get the nod, but maybe this still hinges on what Fister does tomorrow.
 

TFisNEXT

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The Cy season got him Game 1 last year and this season's opener. I don't think it will have anything at all to do with this year's post-season.
Porcello's gopher balls and the Astros' power seems like a really bad match-up. I'd go with Fister.
I think a lot of empirical evidence points to Fister as the optimal choice, but I am highly skeptical he would actually get the nod over Porcello. Maybe if Fister has a brilliant outing tonight.
 

chrisfont9

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I think a lot of empirical evidence points to Fister as the optimal choice, but I am highly skeptical he would actually get the nod over Porcello. Maybe if Fister has a brilliant outing tonight.
It comes down to who they think will be more likely to pitch very well. Frankly they seem very similar in that they are either in full command and straight up mowing pricks down, or missing spots and getting absolutely shelled. With both guys they are more the former but prone to start the game as the latter. I suppose you could start one but on a very quick hook and have the other in long relief? But then you might get both of their shitty first innings.
 

BaseballJones

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This last run through the rotation has been very, very ugly for Boston.

8/24 - Fister: 5.1 ip, 9 h, 3 r, 3 er, 0 bb, 9 k, 1 first inning run (Sox win, 5-4)
8/25 - Pomeranz: 2.0 ip, 7 h, 5 r, 5 er, 1 bb, 0 k, 1 first inning run, 4 second inning runs (Sox lose, 6-4)
8/26 - Sale: 5.0 ip, 8 h, 5 r, 5 er, 2 bb, 8 k, 1 first inning run (Sox lose 9-4)
8/27 - Porcello: 5.2 ip, 7 h, 5 r, 5 er, 2 bb, 8 k, 3 first inning runs (Sox win 10-7)
8/28 - Rodriguez: 1.2 ip, 6 h, 5 r, 5 er, 2 bb, 2 k, 3 first inning runs, 2 second inning runs (Sox lose 12-2)

That's a combined line of: 19.2 ip, 37 h, 23 r, 23 er, 7 bb, 27 k, 10.53 era, 2.24 whip, 12.4 k/9

And 9 first inning runs allowed, plus 6 second inning runs allowed. 15 runs given up in the first two innings in these five games.

It's actually amazing the Sox won 2 of these 5 games.

Time for the rotation to shake it off and get good again.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Will Farrell hold back Sale no matter what on Sunday? That way he'd be ready either for a potential AL East tiebreaker/WC game on Monday/Tuesday or Game 1 on Thursday.
I don't think he necessarily holds him out at all.

If they have clinched, I could see him making a short start (2-3 innings, 30-40 pitches max) and treating it like a side session. Throw long enough to stay sharp but not long enough to make starting Game 1 a chore.

If they haven't clinched on Sunday, Sale pitches all out. Play to win that game and get the three off days. Then start Pomeranz in Game 1 and Sale in Game 2. With the off-days built in, Sale can still start Game 5 on full rest.

I don't think there's any justification for holding Sale in order out to "save" him for the tiebreaker game. It would be a vote of no confidence in the rest of the team. A fire-able offense on the level of Grady Little in 2003. No way does it happen.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Was the 3 days rest thing in response to a question?
Yes. With the off-days, the Game 2 starter can go in Game 5 on full rest, so the question was whether the Red Sox would take advantage of that and have Sale go on short rest in Game 4. Educated guess would be down 2-1, Sale pitches Game 4. Up 2-1, Sale is held for Game 5.
 

RedOctober3829

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Yes. With the off-days, the Game 2 starter can go in Game 5 on full rest, so the question was whether the Red Sox would take advantage of that and have Sale go on short rest in Game 4. Educated guess would be down 2-1, Sale pitches Game 4. Up 2-1, Sale is held for Game 5.
If Price is rested, it would be nice to have him available to pitch 2-3 IP backing Sale up on 3 days rest
 

chrisfont9

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This last run through the rotation has been very, very ugly for Boston.

8/24 - Fister: 5.1 ip, 9 h, 3 r, 3 er, 0 bb, 9 k, 1 first inning run (Sox win, 5-4)
8/25 - Pomeranz: 2.0 ip, 7 h, 5 r, 5 er, 1 bb, 0 k, 1 first inning run, 4 second inning runs (Sox lose, 6-4)
8/26 - Sale: 5.0 ip, 8 h, 5 r, 5 er, 2 bb, 8 k, 1 first inning run (Sox lose 9-4)
8/27 - Porcello: 5.2 ip, 7 h, 5 r, 5 er, 2 bb, 8 k, 3 first inning runs (Sox win 10-7)
8/28 - Rodriguez: 1.2 ip, 6 h, 5 r, 5 er, 2 bb, 2 k, 3 first inning runs, 2 second inning runs (Sox lose 12-2)

That's a combined line of: 19.2 ip, 37 h, 23 r, 23 er, 7 bb, 27 k, 10.53 era, 2.24 whip, 12.4 k/9

And 9 first inning runs allowed, plus 6 second inning runs allowed. 15 runs given up in the first two innings in these five games.

It's actually amazing the Sox won 2 of these 5 games.

Time for the rotation to shake it off and get good again.
Bad runs happen. As long as then end...
 

chrisfont9

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My vote is
1: Sale
2: Porcello*
3: Pomeranz
4: Edro*
* Fister ready to step in if either one doesn't have it early on. Not sure how that works but anyway.

IMHO there could be some real value in Pom getting 8 days rest. Given how his stuff has eroded, it can't hurt to try. And Porcello's home/road split might not make sense, but he's probably getting one start so we might as well see if it's for real.
 

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My vote is
1: Sale
2: Porcello*
3: Pomeranz
4: Edro*
* Fister ready to step in if either one doesn't have it early on. Not sure how that works but anyway.

IMHO there could be some real value in Pom getting 8 days rest. Given how his stuff has eroded, it can't hurt to try. And Porcello's home/road split might not make sense, but he's probably getting one start so we might as well see if it's for real.
Pomeranz looked pretty great yesterday for a guy whose stuff has eroded.
 

Laser Show

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Don't over think it. Sale, Pomeranz, Edro.

As for 4 and 5... I'm inclined to go Sale Pomeranz instead of Porcello/Fister Sale.
 

DJnVa

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Given how his stuff has eroded, it can't hurt to try.
Eh?

If you're referring to having an ERA of 3.69 in September, well, that's not really an erosion, especially since his WHIP was his best of any month since April.
 

Plympton91

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Yeah, I'm not quite sure why there is a discussion going on.

Sale, Pomeranz, Edro, Price, Reed, and Kimbrell are the only people who should see an inning over the next 2 weeks unless they're way ahead or way behind.
 

Harry Hooper

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It's not going to happen, but you can make an argument that the AL's reigning Cy Young Award winner shouldn't be on the playoff roster.

I don't see Rodriguez being head and shoulders above Fister at all. In fact, I probably trust Fister with a start more than Edro.
I'd go Sale, Pomeranz, Fister, Rodriguez or Sale.
I'd lean that way too, but it should be a very short leash for whichever of Fister/Rodriguez gets the start.
 

chrisfont9

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Pomeranz looked pretty great yesterday for a guy whose stuff has eroded.
If you have another way of phrasing a sudden, persistent drop in fastball velocity that resulted in him getting completely crushed two starts ago and skating by the rest of the time, fine. I was making a simple point about how he's probably a strong candidate for benefiting from extra rest based on the demonstrable fact that his fastball has suddenly dropped 4mph, right around when he hit his personal innings high.

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=11426&position=P&pitch=FA&data=pi
 

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If you have another way of phrasing a sudden, persistent drop in fastball velocity that resulted in him getting completely crushed two starts ago and skating by the rest of the time, fine. I was making a simple point about how he's probably a strong candidate for benefiting from extra rest based on the demonstrable fact that his fastball has suddenly dropped 4mph, right around when he hit his personal innings high.

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=11426&position=P&pitch=FA&data=pi
He hasn't been "skating by." In fact, that bad start two starts ago was his only bad start in his last 5. As was pointed out a few posts above, his ERA and WHIP were really good in September. Eck(I think) was talking about how he was sacrificing a little velocity for more control. I don't know if that's true, but it seems to make sense.
 

chrisfont9

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He hasn't been "skating by." In fact, that bad start two starts ago was his only bad start in his last 5. As was pointed out a few posts above, his ERA and WHIP were really good in September. Eck(I think) was talking about how he was sacrificing a little velocity for more control. I don't know if that's true, but it seems to make sense.
He is intentionally dropping his velocity? After pitching all year long a certain way and doing really well, he changes his approach in September in time for the playoffs? I mean, maybe. I don't know. It doesn't make a ton of sense.

Anyway, neither of us has the facts. If he has dropped the velocity on purpose so he can be more like Jamie Moyer, then pitch him second, have him be the only starter who doesn't get 2-3 extra days to rest, and pitch Porcello at home where he's been almost two runs worse on his ERA (albeit mostly BABIP). And if the velocity drop is due to him wearing down, then give him some rest in the hope that it helps him. Games 2 and 3 count equally.

There is a third possibility where he started losing 2-3 mph from wear and tear, got bombarded, and then changed his approach by sacrificing another couple mph in favor of an all-control approach that worked a couple times, particularly on Saturday. I guess the story will come out by the end of the month, at the latest.
 
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chrisfont9

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I don't see Rodriguez being head and shoulders above Fister at all. In fact, I probably trust Fister with a start more than Edro.
I'd go Sale, Pomeranz, Fister, Rodriguez or Sale.
Supposedly the Astros have been worse against LHP all year. But from a sample size of this past few days, then yeah, Fister was far superior. Edro is a complete wild card right now.

And frankly, I don't see why anyone thinks the Astros are worse against lefties. Their total OPS is a shade below the team mark vs righties. I'd be interested if they use platoons where the Sox' choice of pitcher handedness would lead to an inferior outfield defense in Fenway, where just a few mistakes in a short series could make a difference. The D metrics don't say much about Fisher vs Maybin, and while they don't like Marwin Gonzalez, he's a switch hitter and would probably play regardless.
 
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TheoShmeo

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It's not going to happen, but you can make an argument that the AL's reigning Cy Young Award winner shouldn't be on the playoff roster.



.
It sure as hell should happen in round one. He’s not one of the best four starters right now and there are several relievers who will not make the roster who I would rather see than him.

He’s got no recent experience out of the pen and he sucked when it counted down the stretch after being inconsistent all season.

Porcello making the roster for the first series would be ridiculous and while I don’t trust Farrell to make good decisions ordinarily, I also don’t think he’ll blow this one.
 

shaggydog2000

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He is intentionally dropping his velocity? After pitching all year long a certain way and doing really well, he changes his approach in September in time for the playoffs? I mean, maybe. I don't know. It doesn't make a ton of sense.

Anyway, neither of us has the facts. If he has dropped the velocity on purpose so he can be more like Jamie Moyer, then pitch him second, have him be the only starter who doesn't get 2-3 extra days to rest, and pitch Porcello at home where he's been almost two runs worse on his ERA (albeit mostly BABIP). And if the velocity drop is due to him wearing down, then give him some rest in the hope that it helps him. Games 2 and 3 count equally.

There is a third possibility where he started losing 2-3 mph from wear and tear, got bombarded, and then changed his approach by sacrificing another couple mph in favor of an all-control approach that worked a couple times, particularly on Saturday. I guess the story will come out by the end of the month, at the latest.
There is a whole article about his recent pitching at Fangraphs:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/boston-should-be-worried-about-drew-pomeranz/

The summary is that he lost velocity on his 4 seamer, which he throws high like a lot of pitchers these days. He then started to mix in more 2-seamers, which are slower by nature of the pitch. So some of the drop is from his 4- seamer, and some is from him using a 2 seamer more. He's not intentionally throwing less hard. But if he gets results with that mix, he should keep using it. His k% is down a bit from the rest of the season, but the BB% is about even, and as pointed out above the WHIP is below his numbers for the season. His numbers really don't make him look like a pitcher completely falling apart.
 

JimD

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Porcello is getting a start, Farrell is not getting fired, and the resulting outrage when the Sox get bounced will fuel this board all winter.
 

chrisfont9

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There is a whole article about his recent pitching at Fangraphs:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/boston-should-be-worried-about-drew-pomeranz/

The summary is that he lost velocity on his 4 seamer, which he throws high like a lot of pitchers these days. He then started to mix in more 2-seamers, which are slower by nature of the pitch. So some of the drop is from his 4- seamer, and some is from him using a 2 seamer more. He's not intentionally throwing less hard. But if he gets results with that mix, he should keep using it. His k% is down a bit from the rest of the season, but the BB% is about even, and as pointed out above the WHIP is below his numbers for the season. His numbers really don't make him look like a pitcher completely falling apart.
Thanks, this is a good explanation. I agree, his results have been mostly fine even after that very alarming start, but I've been waiting for the shoe to drop. I suppose it's possible it won't, though his margin for error has surely shrunk.
 

AB in DC

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It sure as hell should happen in round one. He’s not one of the best four starters right now and there are several relievers who will not make the roster who I would rather see than him.
I would consider Porcello in the BP in case of extra innings. Particularly for Game 4, when whoever starts should get a quick hook, potentially burning through the bullpen by the 9th inning.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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I would consider Porcello in the BP in case of extra innings. Particularly for Game 4, when whoever starts should get a quick hook, potentially burning through the bullpen by the 9th inning.
So - you want to use, arguably, our worst pitcher in the highest leverage you can imagine - extra innings in an elimination game? The ability to throw multiple innings is useless when you give up runs as often as Porcello does.

IMO, his only role is as a mop in a blowout - with the Sox up by 10 - in the 9th inning - with two outs and nobody on.
 

AB in DC

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So - you want to use, arguably, our worst pitcher in the highest leverage you can imagine - extra innings in an elimination game?
I'm saying I want all of the good relievers to pitch innings 4-9. Don't hold anyone back for extra innings, go all out in regulation. No more Farrell slow hook.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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I'm saying I want all of the good relievers to pitch innings 4-9. Don't hold anyone back for extra innings, go all out in regulation. No more Farrell slow hook.
Also known as Farrell's Last Stand - lol - fair enough

Though, to be fair Farrell's hook has quickened of late - he was pretty quick to get Smith - and later Price out of there on Saturday. I'm not even sure it was warranted in Smith's case - it wasn't as if he was being rocked.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Is the concern over Farrell's hooking speed a matter of Farrell hate? Because I don't recall him having a slow hook in 2013, and last year was over too fast to really judge.

Or are we assuming that only Tito can morph from Regular Season manager to Playoff manager?
 

AB in DC

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Also known as Farrell's Last Stand - lol - fair enough
I was more thinking Francona last year...or KC-SF Game 7 a few years ago. Nowadays relievers are better pitchers than the starters, albeit in smaller doses.

Seriously, there are no other good options for Game 4. Sale on three days rest sounds like a disaster waiting to happen based on his late-season performance. Fister and pray he gets out of the first inning? Yuck. Porcello? Double-yuck.

The only other option is to have play it as a reverse bullpen game -- start with as many innings as possible from your best relievers, then bring in your "starter" only when the bullpen runs dry. Ideally this would be:
2-3 innings from Price
1-2 innings from Kelly
1 inning from Smith
1 inning from Reed
2-3 innings from Barnes/Maddox/Boyer/whoever
1 inning from Kimbrel

Some enterprising manager is going to try this sooner or later -- might as well be now.

(Of course this all depends on how Game 3 goes...if EdRo is pulled early then it's not going to work.)
 

Mighty Joe Young

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Is the concern over Farrell's hooking speed a matter of Farrell hate? Because I don't recall him having a slow hook in 2013, and last year was over too fast to really judge.

Or are we assuming that only Tito can morph from Regular Season manager to Playoff manager?
I think the slow hook is #1 in the I hate Farrell complaints. But he HAS demonstrated the same progression Tito had when it came to playoff time.

I've never been a fan of slow hooks myself but I've come to understand the rationale. So I don't get all worked up about it anymore. The playoffs on the other hand are a different story - and he seems to realize this.
 

lexrageorge

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This is where we need to point out that Farrell did not have a slow hook in 2016.

Game 1: Porcello gave up his first home run to start the 3rd inning, then gave up 2 more later that same inning. He was pulled after giving up a leadoff single in the 5th.

Game 2: David Price pulled in the 4th.

Game 3: Buchholz lasted 4 innings, giving up 2 runs.

There was literally nothing Farrell could have done. When none of your starters can finish the 5th, you're unlikely to ever manage a playoff series win.