Playoffs.
- Thread starter Dummy Hoy
- Start date
No Carlo and probably no Krug for Game 1. Expect McAvoy to get the call.
http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/19125006/boston-bruins-sign-charlie-mcavoy-torey-krug-likely-brandon-carlo-out
Ottawa winning would be an upset, the Bruins are favored in the series, and rightly so
Yeah there definitely are reasons, matchup wise, to be worried. But Ottawa was not very good this season, they actually had a negative goal differential. I'm hoping the gimmicky nature of the neutral zone trap is something that can be figured out over a 7 game series and/or the regular season H2H record is an anomaly.
This is where I am...problem is we haven't seen it, although the Bruins have been a different team the last 2 months.
I'm a fairly big believer in goal difference over the course of a season and I think that the totals are pretty telling. I guess while I think the Bruins are probably the better team, it may be a bad match-up, especially down two of our better PMD.
How concerning is it that Torey Krug is not playing? More specifically when discussing how to break through the trap.
I think this series depends largely on Krug being able to play effectively, if he plays at all. He can help bust the trap up, and is a huge resource for their PP. The Bruins have an advantage in special teams, and not having Krug will really hurt that, as will not having Carlo shorthanded.
I don't think Boston should be favored given the injuries, and would say Ottawa in 6. If Krug plays from Game 2 or 3 on, maybe the Bruins in 6 or 7, but I'm certainly not confident. Losing four games to this team was not a fluke. They beat them. Assuming the playoffs will be completely different is a fools errand when the Bruins could barely muster getting a single point against them in 4 games.
I don't think Boston should be favored given the injuries, and would say Ottawa in 6. If Krug plays from Game 2 or 3 on, maybe the Bruins in 6 or 7, but I'm certainly not confident. Losing four games to this team was not a fluke. They beat them. Assuming the playoffs will be completely different is a fools errand when the Bruins could barely muster getting a single point against them in 4 games.
A 5x5 comparison...
GF60- B's 2.20 (15th) Sens 2.07 (11th)
GA60- B's 2.28 (16th) Sens 2.16 (11th)
SF60- B's 32.3 (2nd) Sens 29.4 (15th)
SA60- B's 26.2 (2nd) Sens 29.3 (14th)
SCF60- B's 7.39 (22nd) Sens 7.65 (20th)
SCFA60- B's 6.73 (4th) Sens 7.65 (9th)
SCF%- B's 52.33% (7th) Sens 49.70% (18th)
CF%- B's 54.7% (2nd) Sens 48.5 (22nd)
S%- B's 6.77% (24th) Sens 7.03% (22nd)
SV%- B's .9131 (28th) Sens .9263 (10th)
Special teams:
PP- Goals/60- Bruins 7.81 (7th) Sens 6.01 (23rd)
SH- Goals against/60- B's 5.07 (2nd) Sens 7.14 (19th)
These stats are why the Bruins are "favored" despite losing the season series. Special teams is a particularly big advantage since the Bruins had 2 above average units while the Sens were below average in both.
That said, not having Krug will hurt. He's a big reason why the Bruins have such good possession numbers, as well as being a driver of an above average PP. The Bruins don't really have a LHD point man for the PP now. I suspect Spooner will get moved up top on the PP, but it will be hard to fill all those Krug minutes. They could really use his skill set in lugging the puck up ice against a trap team. Hopefully Colin Miller and McAvoy can pick up enough slack to survive until Krug returns.
GF60- B's 2.20 (15th) Sens 2.07 (11th)
GA60- B's 2.28 (16th) Sens 2.16 (11th)
SF60- B's 32.3 (2nd) Sens 29.4 (15th)
SA60- B's 26.2 (2nd) Sens 29.3 (14th)
SCF60- B's 7.39 (22nd) Sens 7.65 (20th)
SCFA60- B's 6.73 (4th) Sens 7.65 (9th)
SCF%- B's 52.33% (7th) Sens 49.70% (18th)
CF%- B's 54.7% (2nd) Sens 48.5 (22nd)
S%- B's 6.77% (24th) Sens 7.03% (22nd)
SV%- B's .9131 (28th) Sens .9263 (10th)
Special teams:
PP- Goals/60- Bruins 7.81 (7th) Sens 6.01 (23rd)
SH- Goals against/60- B's 5.07 (2nd) Sens 7.14 (19th)
These stats are why the Bruins are "favored" despite losing the season series. Special teams is a particularly big advantage since the Bruins had 2 above average units while the Sens were below average in both.
That said, not having Krug will hurt. He's a big reason why the Bruins have such good possession numbers, as well as being a driver of an above average PP. The Bruins don't really have a LHD point man for the PP now. I suspect Spooner will get moved up top on the PP, but it will be hard to fill all those Krug minutes. They could really use his skill set in lugging the puck up ice against a trap team. Hopefully Colin Miller and McAvoy can pick up enough slack to survive until Krug returns.
This xG based model has the Bruins with the 2nd best odds of winning the cup.
Mostly because it really hates Ottawa and doesn't rate the Rangers or Habs very high. It also doesn't factor injuries or anything
Mostly because it really hates Ottawa and doesn't rate the Rangers or Habs very high. It also doesn't factor injuries or anything
Yeah, no.
I guess matchups favor the Bruins slightly, but that graph doesn't pass the smell test.
I guess matchups favor the Bruins slightly, but that graph doesn't pass the smell test.
Matchups favor the Bruins A LOT. They have by far the easiest first two rounds of anyone. This obviously doesn't factor in injuries though
Fluto decided to take a break with his food reviews and write an actual article about hockey. Its a nice little read for hockey novices (like myself) about the workings of Ottawa's 1-3-1 system.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/bruins/2017/04/11/ottawa-setting-trap-neutral-zone-for-bruins-here-how-works/dzbvOs7vXIl0scQBdeZiZI/story.html
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/bruins/2017/04/11/ottawa-setting-trap-neutral-zone-for-bruins-here-how-works/dzbvOs7vXIl0scQBdeZiZI/story.html
Nope. It's a straightforward description of the 1-3-1, with videos demonstrating how it works -- or, when Bergeron and Marchand link up, doesn't.
Some interesting quotes from Ray Ferraro on the Bruins without Krug.
"“If he can’t play or has limited effectiveness, that’s a big loss for them. The one previous game in Boston, Krug got up the ice pretty dangerously a couple times."
“Who else is going to do that? Maybe Colin Miller. But man, that would be pretty erratic once he starts to do that. If they decide to go to McAvoy, for a guy playing in his first playoff game, it would look like things are coming a million miles an hour at him.”
Also- Let's get someone reliable up on the game thread, huh?
Nice run by miracle to end the year, but if I have to look at his stupid fucking Klopp picture anymore there's no accounting for my actions.
Speaking of which, time for my playoff avatar...
Nice run by miracle to end the year, but if I have to look at his stupid fucking Klopp picture anymore there's no accounting for my actions.
Speaking of which, time for my playoff avatar...
Miracle should be on the list as well for the run that got us here, but TFP or PSK should start it off.
I think we are all in violent agreement that I am banned from starting game threads until next season.
I think we are all in violent agreement that I am banned from starting game threads until next season.
It could be worse. I was pinked by a member once because my avatar was Adam Morrison bawling after a Gonzaga loss in the tournament.
I find it hilarious that they bleeped "fucking" and not "twat"
Also, Marchand is an elite-level shit-stirrer.
Right click and open the link in a private/incognito window and you can see the article
