A new season starts Friday, which means it's time to once again demonstrate for the record that nobody knows anything.
Link to last year's thread, where I predicted Arsenal would win the title and Leicester would finish above Liverpool: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/2016-17-epl-predictions-thread.15279/
I think there's a clear top two:
1. Man City. I think they win the league by 10 points. Still a little thin in central midfield, but that attack is frightening, they solved their fullback problems, they have depth at most positions, and they a goalkeeper who might actually make saves. I think they are going to blow a lot of teams away.
2. Man Utd. Mourinho always does well in Year 2. It's a really strong squad, but I just wonder if they can score enough goals, especially if Lukaku doesn't integrate right away or gets injured. They'll need significant goal contributions from Rashford, Mkhitaryan, Martial, etc. If they get that, they could challenge City. But I think there are more questions here than at City.
3-6 are much harder to suss out:
3. Chelsea. They ran a little hot this year, and they are not better than they were last year, assuming Costa leaves. They don't have a Matic replacement and Hazard is injured to start the year. They haven't added any depth to a squad that was extremely reliant on 12-13 players last year, and they have to fight on multiple fronts this season. Teams have also had a season to figure out how to attack the back 3, when I think a lot of managers weren't prepared for it last season. They'll still be good, but I don't see them as favorites.
4. Spurs. Selling Walker and not buying anyone means they've gone backwards. They badly need to add some depth before the window closes. But there is still a ton of talent all over the pitch here -- Kane/Alli/Eriksen might be the league's best front 3, Aldeweireld/Vertonghen/Lloris its best back 3 -- and they have experience fighting in Europe, which leads me to ...
5. Liverpool. I think Europe will be a tough adjustment for them, because they're not deep and that extreme pressing style is a lot harder to maintain when you're playing twice a week. Salah is a good addition, but it's a wash at best if they lose Coutinho. They will still have weeks when they look like the league's best team, like they did last year, but can they maintain that consistency over a 50-60 game season? I'm a little skeptical.
6. Arsenal. Lacazette and Kolasinic look to be real improvements, and they didn't lose anyone important. Sanchez and Ozil are still great, and I think Xhaka will have a very good season in his second year. But they have more questions marks or weak spots in the squad than most of the teams above them, and there's a weird malaise and general aura of negativity hanging over the club that could become a real issue.
--big drop--
7. Everton. Spending a ton of money to tread water. They are clearly the 7th best team and clearly not better than any of the top 6. This is a team that should be punting the league to focus on cups, where they could do some damage.
8-15: Southampton, Stoke, Leicester, Bournemouth, West Ham, Palace, West Brom, and Newcastle are the midtable and could finish in virtually any conceivable order. None of them should be in much danger of going down, and none should be realistically challenging for European spots either.
16. Swansea
17. Watford
18. Burnley
Burnley ran hot last year and are due for some regression, and still only made it to 16th. They also have no money to spend to fix things. Sean Dyche is a good manager, but he doesn't have much to work with. Unless Watford fall apart (conceivable), I think Burnley go down.
19. Huddersfield
20. Brighton
Enjoy your one lap around the circuit, Terriers and Swans supporters.
Link to last year's thread, where I predicted Arsenal would win the title and Leicester would finish above Liverpool: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/2016-17-epl-predictions-thread.15279/
I think there's a clear top two:
1. Man City. I think they win the league by 10 points. Still a little thin in central midfield, but that attack is frightening, they solved their fullback problems, they have depth at most positions, and they a goalkeeper who might actually make saves. I think they are going to blow a lot of teams away.
2. Man Utd. Mourinho always does well in Year 2. It's a really strong squad, but I just wonder if they can score enough goals, especially if Lukaku doesn't integrate right away or gets injured. They'll need significant goal contributions from Rashford, Mkhitaryan, Martial, etc. If they get that, they could challenge City. But I think there are more questions here than at City.
3-6 are much harder to suss out:
3. Chelsea. They ran a little hot this year, and they are not better than they were last year, assuming Costa leaves. They don't have a Matic replacement and Hazard is injured to start the year. They haven't added any depth to a squad that was extremely reliant on 12-13 players last year, and they have to fight on multiple fronts this season. Teams have also had a season to figure out how to attack the back 3, when I think a lot of managers weren't prepared for it last season. They'll still be good, but I don't see them as favorites.
4. Spurs. Selling Walker and not buying anyone means they've gone backwards. They badly need to add some depth before the window closes. But there is still a ton of talent all over the pitch here -- Kane/Alli/Eriksen might be the league's best front 3, Aldeweireld/Vertonghen/Lloris its best back 3 -- and they have experience fighting in Europe, which leads me to ...
5. Liverpool. I think Europe will be a tough adjustment for them, because they're not deep and that extreme pressing style is a lot harder to maintain when you're playing twice a week. Salah is a good addition, but it's a wash at best if they lose Coutinho. They will still have weeks when they look like the league's best team, like they did last year, but can they maintain that consistency over a 50-60 game season? I'm a little skeptical.
6. Arsenal. Lacazette and Kolasinic look to be real improvements, and they didn't lose anyone important. Sanchez and Ozil are still great, and I think Xhaka will have a very good season in his second year. But they have more questions marks or weak spots in the squad than most of the teams above them, and there's a weird malaise and general aura of negativity hanging over the club that could become a real issue.
--big drop--
7. Everton. Spending a ton of money to tread water. They are clearly the 7th best team and clearly not better than any of the top 6. This is a team that should be punting the league to focus on cups, where they could do some damage.
8-15: Southampton, Stoke, Leicester, Bournemouth, West Ham, Palace, West Brom, and Newcastle are the midtable and could finish in virtually any conceivable order. None of them should be in much danger of going down, and none should be realistically challenging for European spots either.
16. Swansea
17. Watford
18. Burnley
Burnley ran hot last year and are due for some regression, and still only made it to 16th. They also have no money to spend to fix things. Sean Dyche is a good manager, but he doesn't have much to work with. Unless Watford fall apart (conceivable), I think Burnley go down.
19. Huddersfield
20. Brighton
Enjoy your one lap around the circuit, Terriers and Swans supporters.
, Swansea, Stoke bottom 3. I think Brighton will surprise, but if my championship tinted glasses are wrong, Swansea stays up.